Posts by Michael Ortiz68

Carl Lee27 said:Look, let's be real here—the Saudis haven't even become significant importers of oil from Russia, let alone the biggest players. I mean, 24,000 barrels? That’s practically a joke. They’re just bringing in fuel oil to run their own power plants, and honestly, they're probably getting it at a massive discount too. Still, it is pretty funny to see how much more chaotic these numbers are getting lately; it feels like the anxiety levels are just hitting a fever pitch everywhere you look.

On another note, in a country where people actually get arrested just for holding up a blank piece of paper in public, it looks like now they've moved on to targeting folks who have something even more vague, like a random collection of stars.
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/...1ME01CCpQ&s=19

The Saudis have been importing fuel oil from Russia for their power plants for ages, so I don't quite see why this is news.

Gansi was actually quite effective in those scenes. Everything else is forgettable.

Noah Diaz said:I think China would handle losing a market of 500 million people much more gracefully than the EU could handle losing a market of 4 billion, especially with fossil fuel shortages and resource scarcity looming. In that scenario, the sheer idiocy of the EU would plunge them straight back into the Middle Ages overnight.

That’s exactly what happens when China launches a "special operation" to reclaim Taiwan and achieve unification. It isn't a matter of if it will happen—it's strictly a matter of when.

All this talk about military and political alliances is child's play. Real alliances require shared values and mutual trust. That kind of bond will never exist between Russia and China. And honestly, only you would try to wedge India into that equation, considering they are a geopolitical rival to China.

The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation is essentially a massive geopolitical heavyweight sitting right at the heart of Eurasia. Think of it as a powerhouse bloc where major players like China, Russia, and India all sit around the same table to tackle everything from regional security to economic integration. It’s not just some casual club; it's a structured organization designed to bolster stability and cooperation across a huge stretch of territory. While its origins were rooted in border security and fighting against things like terrorism and separatism, it has evolved into a much broader platform for influence. It’s a fascinating look at how power dynamics shift when these massive nations decide to coordinate their efforts on the global stage.

Back in July 2015 in Ufa, Russia, the SCO made the call to bring India and Pakistan in as full members. They both officially signed the memorandum of obligations in June 2016 in Tashkent, Uzbekistan, kicking off the formal process to join the group as full members. On June 9, 2017, during a summit held in Astana, India and Pakistan officially became full members of the SCO.

Look, those fierce rivals—India and Pakistan—stepped up at the exact same time. You want to know what they actually have in common? They’re both hell-bent on toppling American hegemony and knocking its allies off the global throne.

LOL, since when does market viability depend solely on population size?

The European Union has one-third the population of India, yet it imports five times the value of goods from China compared to India.

Similarly, the European Union has three times the population of Russia, but its import value from China is seven times higher.

It’s a good thing the Chinese don't operate based on your logic; they wouldn't want to shoot themselves in the foot.

Noah Diaz said:Mdaaaa, they could do just about anything, BUT

India and China have been aligned with Russia for a long time now, mainly because they are part of this:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shangh...n_Organisation

The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), also known as the Shanghai Pact,[2] is a transcontinental political, economic, security, and military alliance. In terms of geographic scope and population, IT is The world's largest regional organization, covering approximately 60% of the area of Eurasia, 40% of the world population, and more than 30% of global GDP.[3]

Iran joins this year, while Turkey remains on the sidelines. 😁

Europe is well on its way to becoming the world's blind spot—or if you want a better term: a sewer.

We have been hearing this exact same rhetoric for twenty years now. I wonder how much longer you all intend to swallow it.

urbanotter said:Support for Zelenskyy and the current administration seems to be steadily gaining ground among Europeans, but I have to wonder about the reality on the ground. There is a profound lack of reliable information regarding what Americans—or even the people within Ukraine itself—actually think, especially considering the sentiments held prior to the Maidan protests.
To me, the media manipulation and the intentional shaping of public opinion by both sides just doesn't sit right; it feels fundamentally dishonest.
I often find myself thinking back to those old political debates where they used to say, "the truth runs deep," yet it always felt like such a hollow phrase when things got complicated.

Once Ukraine finally surrenders, everything will revert to the status quo. Inflation will crater, and the prices for oil and gas will plummet right back to where they were. Everything will return to normal, and business at our firm will finally start blooming again.

analogbear5 said:Man, it’s funny how once globalization actually starts moving again, all those anti-globalist types are the first ones whining when prices finally snap back to normal.

Exactly this. All these anti-globalists, anti-imperialists, and self-proclaimed defenders of human dignity are the absolute first to start crying the moment the gas they condemn becomes too expensive. It's honestly hilarious.

urbanotter said:I don't think Biden spends much time thinking about policy; he's probably too preoccupied with his own health issues.

Look, the idea that prices spike when supply drops is basic economics—even a local farmer at a roadside stand knows that if they only have a few peppers left, it's the perfect time to hike the price.

I don't need to rely on Bloomberg's spin when I can just rely on common sense and actual facts on the ground.

Of course, everyone is entitled to their opinion, but you don't even need to be an expert to see the reality. Just walk into any local grocery store or a big chain like Walmart; if you can remember, the price of a bottle of Crisco was around $3.25/l a few months ago, and today you can't find it for less than $6.00/l.
To anyone who can handle elementary school math, it's obvious that cooking oil prices have jumped by 80%, and over in Germany, they've even hit €5 per liter.👋

And I suppose we're all supposed to believe that sanctions on Russia are the sole culprit for these price hikes, right? 😉 I mean, Bloomberg certainly did a stellar job spinning the narrative. As they say, where there are sheep, there will be wool.

urbanotter said:Quincey:

The piece shared by our colleague milko 84 discusses how The US government is quietly encouraging agricultural and shipping companies to purchase and transport more Russian fertilizer, according to sources familiar with the matter. Meanwhile, a fear of sanctions has led to a sharp decline in stockpiles, which has subsequently caused food prices to spiral out of control. Government efforts are part of complex and difficult negotiations involving the United Nations, aimed at increasing the supply of fertilizer, grains, and other agricultural products from Russia and Ukraine—supplies that were disrupted by Vladimir Putin's invasion of his southern neighbor.

So, what you're saying is the US government is essentially begging corporations to bypass the very sanctions it implemented? It seems that without Russian fertilizer exports, which have dropped 25% globally because of these rules, we're facing a massive food shortage or, at the very least, skyrocketing prices that will leave many people hungry while others struggle to afford basic meals.

Maybe you clicked on the link, but I doubt you truly grasped the implications of what was written there.

As for the point about natural gas being essential for synthetic fertilizer production, that's common knowledge to any farmer or even someone working at a local utility plant like an ExxonMobil facility; they've been struggling for months because current gas prices are just too high, especially considering fertilizer costs have already jumped by 300%.

Go ahead and keep trolling if you want, but I've had enough of this shallow logic. I can clearly see the disaster looming if these trade routes aren't normalized soon, especially since Russia is demanding the lifting of sanctions to fix it.

So, you actually buy into Bloomberg’s narrative about the US government being "concerned" over global food shortages? You also take at face value an article suggesting that ramping up fertilizer imports is some magic bullet for curbing inflation? It’s funny—you know who else blames inflation on sanctions against Russia? Joe Biden. He clearly thinks the American people are too dim to see through the spin.

Essentially, if you’re taking cues from Bloomberg and Joe Biden, you’re easily the most pro-establishment person on this entire subforum.

urbanotter said:I find myself reflecting on how much our perspective shifts depending on where we stand in relation to global events. It’s easy to get lost in the sheer scale of things, but when you step back, you realize that everything is interconnected in ways we often overlook during the heat of the moment. I was reading through some recent discussions, and it struck me how much we tend to focus on the immediate fallout while missing the deeper, structural changes happening beneath the surface. There's a certain weight to these shifts—not just in economics or politics, but in how we perceive stability itself. It reminds me of a time back when I was working in logistics; you could see a minor delay in one port ripple out and disrupt an entire supply chain weeks later. We often think we can manage the chaos, but the reality is that we are all just navigating a series of overlapping waves.

I was actually referring to the global export trends for potash and synthetic fertilizers, rather than focusing specifically on the trade dynamics between the USA and Brazil.

Well, if DW is spreading misinformation, then I suppose I was just passing along incorrect data myself.

I was reading an interesting piece from DW recently regarding how the ongoing conflict in Ukraine is rippling through global supply chains, specifically when it comes to fertilizer exports heading toward Brazil. It’s one of those situations where you realize just how interconnected everything has become; a disruption in Eastern Europe can fundamentally shift the agricultural landscape in South America and eventually impact food prices all the way here in the States. The article dives into the complexities of how the war in Ukraine and its effect on fertilizer exports to Brazil and the U.S. is creating a massive headache for farmers. When major suppliers are cut off or face logistical nightmares, the entire global market starts to tremble. I remember back when I was helping my uncle out on his farm over in Iowa, we used to talk about how much we relied on specific imports to keep the soil healthy and the yields high. Even then, the idea that a conflict thousands of miles away could dictate our planting costs felt distant, but now it feels like an inescapable reality. It’s a sobering reminder that stability isn't just a political concept—it's a practical necessity for keeping the world fed. Seeing how these shifts affect both Brazilian imports and the domestic American market makes you realize that there is no such thing as an isolated event in a modern, globalized economy. We are all tied to the same string, and when one end is pulled, we all feel the tension.

And if you look closely at the link you shared, it actually says the exact same thing.
j Quote

Russia stands as one of the most significant players in the global fertilizer market, supplying roughly 15 percent of the world's nitrate fertilizers and about 17 percent of its potash. Belarus also plays a massive role in this sector, making them key contributors to global agricultural stability. However, things have taken a worrying turn lately. In recent weeks, we've seen Russia halt the export of several different types of fertilizer. To make matters even more complicated, the entire production process for these fertilizers relies heavily on natural gas—another critical resource that flows largely from Russia into the global supply chain. It’s a precarious situation that really highlights how interconnected our food security is with these specific energy and commodity flows.

The article that milko84 is referencing deals specifically with fertilizer imports into the USA.

You didn't even bother reading the article, yet you felt the sudden urge to lecture me on how vital natural gas is for fertilizer production. Nice try, Sherlock. 😵

bluerider63 said:It’s the exact same playbook they used across Europe—locking down economies, sealing off borders, and fighting some invisible enemy. Now, everyone conveniently forgets all that happened and just uses the war as their go-to excuse.

That’s pretty much it. The strategy seems to be curbing imports of Russian fertilizer to manage things. Ask urbanotter; he’ll give you the full breakdown. Apparently, "sources close to the situation" have already weighed in.

Anyone have an answer for me: when exactly did inflation start spiraling out of control here in the States? What are these "sources familiar with the situation" actually claiming?

urbanotter said:It seems some people would really love it if🤦

Natural gas is the backbone of synthetic fertilizer production,

and without enough of that fertilizer, agricultural yields can be cut in half,

which leads to massive shortages in the food supply chain,

ultimately driving up grocery prices and leaving more families struggling to put food on the table.

Russia is the world's largest exporter of potash, which is essential for making those fertilizers.
Beyond just gas and oil, Russia also controls huge exports of wheat, corn, sunflowers, various meats, and several rare raw materials.

But what can you expect? Those who are "pro-Russia" just want to blame inflation on shortages, higher costs, and a lack of the basic inputs required for high-yield farming per acre.☕

The "informed sources" already know all that, but I’d love to hear what the "uninformed sources" have to say about it.
I suppose they think we can just go out there, spread some manure around, and expect the same bumper crops we used to get—as if that would somehow keep food prices low and stop inflation in its tracks.😉

If you hadn't pointed that out, I truly would have never realized that gas is the basis for synthetic fertilizers. 🙏 Thanks for the enlightening lesson.

Now tell me, when exactly did inflation start in the USA? 🍿

Donna Harris11 said:The Orbán vibe is creeping into America too:

Americans are quietly nudging companies to start bringing in Russian fertilizer again. It’s like, “Eh, forget the sanctions, we just need to kill this inflation!”

They think importing fertilizer will somehow fix inflation 🙏

"according to sources familiar with the matter" 🙏

electrictrucker82 said:Hello there! 🤦 Economic experts?

Have you ever really sat down to consider the impact of inflation? It’s become such a massive topic lately. Practically anyone sitting on a decent pile of cash is scrambling to find somewhere to park it just to keep its value. Even that top 5%—the folks who actually have significant capital to move around—are frantically looking for ways to sink their money into something productive before it loses steam. Now, for you, me, and most people I know, this might not feel like an immediate crisis since we aren't exactly swimming in excess liquidity. But shouldn't we be paying closer attention? If things continue along this current trajectory, we might find ourselves having a very different conversation by next winter. Wouldn't you agree?

So now we're talking about "black" inflation? I thought we had already collectively agreed that sanctions against Russia were the sole culprit for everything. Apparently, if there had been no sanctions and Ukraine had just surrendered, we wouldn't be hearing the cries of hungry people echoing through the streets of Europe today.

hollowdriver13 said:People keep pushing this constant doom & gloom narrative about the West, acting like everyone’s about to starve, but honestly, I don't see it playing out in real life at all.
I mean, look at it—even with people feeling the pinch, Americans are still blowing money on vacations, support for Ukraine remains incredibly high, and you see folks donating tens or even hundreds of thousands of dollars to help out over there. It’s not like we’re seeing massive protests in major US cities because everyone's suddenly starving or their quality of life has completely cratered.
Is a downturn coming?Yeah, definitely.But I think we're underestimating what that actually looks like. We aren't talking about total collapse; we're talking about someone deciding not to upgrade to the newest iPhone this year, or maybe cutting down from four streaming services to three. Plus, I really think people are underselling how much the Russian invasion rattled the average citizen—it shifted our whole threshold for what we're willing to tolerate.

At boat shows, you see people fighting over the most expensive yachts; at agricultural expos, top-tier tractors sell out in minutes. Yet, according to certain people, a starving America is crying out for breadcrumbs.😲

Nathan Evans78 said:

Industrial producer prices shot up by a staggering 23.7 percent in May compared to this time last year. That marks fifteen straight months of annual increases, and honestly, it’s the steepest climb we've seen since the U.S. Census Bureau started tracking these specific figures back in 2011.

Everything is going to be just fine. ☕

Prices have been climbing for fifteen consecutive months, even though the war has only lasted three... Not that it matters; people will just keep blaming the sanctions on Russia regardless.

Terry Green3 said:Thanks. I couldn't quite tell if they finally dropped the patriarch from the list.

I see how we managed to secure an exception for one segment of refined products through the end of 2023.
But the real question is whether they’ll actually bother selling it to us at all. They already did a number on us regarding the coal meant for Plomin.

Actually, they were already screwing us on the coal even before the invasion started 😉 pure robbery.

silentnomad7 said:Just layer up with two or three pieces of clothing and keep the thermostat at a cozy 65 degrees!

And don't forget the food shortages and unrest sweeping through Europe. 😲 Europe is finally collapsing while Russia rises like a phoenix from the ashes. 🐔

Carl Lee27 said:Natural Gas
https://twitter.com/GoldbergNic/stat...CxGp_JNGg&s=19

Presenting data this way in BCM is just poor design; they really ought to be showing the actual percentage of dependency for each country.

Take North Mexico, for example. They are almost entirely dependent on Russian gas, yet according to this infographic, it looks like a negligible amount.

goldenpuma84 said:Nah, because that’s actually the whole point of the war.

The economic destruction of Europe.

Those sanctions aren't going to hurt Russia in the long run.

They're just irrational and suicidal...

And Ukrainians are basically pawns bleeding out for someone else's agenda.

They signed up for this game themselves.

I've been hearing about the destruction of Europe for twenty years now, so I'll believe it when I see it. 🕺

On the other hand, Russia sits on every conceivable mineral and energy resource imaginable, yet they can't manage to economically overtake an Italy that's three times smaller than them. To pull that off, you'd have to be an artist.