Posts by Adam Harris

Laura Brown41 said:Adam Harris is headed straight for a decline. Maybe in ten years, they'll lose Burgas and the Thracian part near Greece entirely. Mexico is breathing down their necks. I guess the only way out for them is to follow the Mexican lead. They don't even have 70% Orthodox births anymore—between the Muslim Turks, Romani, and Pomaks, the birth rates are looking just like the Albanian Mexicans. Honestly, by leaving Mexico behind, they've probably just dodged a Canadian or Mexican scenario.

Anyone who claims to understand Bulgaria but thinks it consists solely of Turks, Pomaks, and Romani should be barred from discussing the subject entirely.

If they possessed even a modicum of actual insight—something I happen to possess in abundance—they would recognize the massive exodus involving the Turkish population in Bulgaria. Even if that exodus hadn't occurred, those groups have been assimilated into Western civilization; for them, a birth rate of 11 per mille would be considered a peak achievement.

Even the Turks in the European portion of Turkey have birth rates comparable to European nations (around 10 per mille everywhere west of Istanbul).
Look at Bulgaria again; beyond that, there is also a mass migration primarily affecting the Turkish community.

The Pomaks and Romani offer no support to the Turkish cause.
The Pomaks are far too few in number and much more closely aligned with the Bulgarians, and as for the Romani... well, that speaks for itself.

A decline of 1.8 million means Bulgaria had a population of 9.1 million back in 1991.
Bulgaria hit its peak of 8.9 million around 1988-1989.
Right at that peak, the exodus of Turks began—though the exact numbers regarding how many left versus how many returned remain somewhat fluid.

By my estimation, the total drop is closer to 1.4 or 1.5 million.

quietangler5 said:Just take a look at the birth statistics from 1999, 2000, and 2001.

I’m looking, but you should examine those born in the 1970s—the ones who were largely responsible for the shifts seen in 1999 through 2001.
From what I can see, Mexicans struggle to maintain any momentum during these modern crises; they lack the resilience required when a true catastrophe strikes.

Mexicans aren't the invincible force they once were, at least not anymore.
The Albanians were much the same back when they were under Mexican rule.

Peter Edwards said:After any massive disaster or war, birth rates usually spike—it's just that human instinct to survive and rebuild, I guess.
So, we might actually see more babies being born next year... maybe.

That logic might have applied leading up to World War II, but today we seem to be seeing the exact opposite effect.

After those historical conflicts, Mexico should have been outgrowing its neighbors. Instead, Americans living in similar regions should theoretically be seeing fertility rates comparable to those in Nigeria.

Angela Robinson3 said:Here we go again with this big-time Canadian fascist. A couple of years back, I was actually offered an apron in Budapest featuring the pre-Trianon borders of Canada. 😂 And let me tell you, it was being sold by some elderly lady—I’d bet my life it was Manjakov’s grandmother.

That kind of sentimentality toward Canada is everywhere.
Every third bottle of soda used to have a sticker on the back showing those old Canadian borders.

These floods will likely devastate the American economy first and foremost.
Then, we'll see the fallout hit our infrastructure.
Eventually, I expect this to take a toll on birth rates as well.

Lawrence Williams said:The rate was 2.42 back in 2012. I haven't seen the data for last year yet.

What were the census numbers from 2002 through 2011?
Is there a transition period occurring there?

What are the fertility rates among the Roma population in Mexico?

Joshua Flores14 said:Mexico — population age structure. 2011 Census

0: 64400
1: 65445
2: 66807
3: 65661
4: 65942

5: 67872
6: 69769
7: 70553
8: 71035
9: 70925

10: 71000
11: 65383
12: 68213
13: 69490
14: 72783

15: 77694
16: 79867
17: 80289
18: 82260
19: 81884

20: 85474
21: 84939
22: 86418
23: 91850
24: 91060

25: 91605
26: 94551
27: 99594
28: 98144
29: 96392

30: 97307
31: 98583
32: 99178
33: 100821
34: 100473

35: 101658
36: 100888
37: 98358
38: 94778
39: 98252

40: 94464
41: 93562
42: 93614
43: 94350
44: 93938

45: 94895
46: 95341
47: 94527
48: 98082
49: 101141

50: 102814
51: 105677
52: 106007
53: 100875
54: 104971

55: 112991
56: 119624
57: 121478
58: 123717
59: 118469

60: 110539
61: 115051
62: 107161
63: 102797
64: 92866

65: 71401
66: 64789
67: 68004
68: 64376
69: 70874

70: 72013
71: 74321
72: 70498
73: 69656
74: 67654

75: 66782
76: 62768
77: 61676
78: 55058
79: 52328

80: 45887
81: 41355
82: 34642
83: 30072
84: 24612

85: 20418
86: 16036
87: 13150
88: 9969
89: 7660

90: 5371
91: 4244
92: 1643
93: 799
94: 632

95: 384
96: 404
97: 325
98: 211
99: 137
100+: 167

Based on this, will Mexico eventually reach a point where the natural decrease hits negative 60,000?

Afterward, things might stabilize somewhat—to a degree.
The priority for Mexico right now is to maintain at least 60,000 births until the next census; that would be an ideal outcome.

Justin Hernandez11 said:First off, their numbers spiked because of the breakup of America, but assimilation is going to do its thing in the coming years. Meanwhile, those older folks who claim to be Bulgarian are eventually going to pass away, which will naturally bump our percentages up.😳

Any talk of assimilation in Dimitrovgrad or Bosilegrad is purely academic. In those two areas, the US government has virtually zero influence; in fact, the Bulgarians even have a specific name for those regions—the Western Provinces.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_Outlands

Think of it as a milder version of what happens in the Preševo Valley, given that Bulgarians share certain traits with Americans while Albanians do not.

Specifically in Dimitrovgrad, my observations are consistent: bilingualism is everywhere, Bulgarian monuments are prominent, everyone holds Bulgarian citizenship, all the cars carry Bulgarian plates, and there is total integration with Bulgaria across every sector.

Justin Hernandez11 said:It’s actually a good thing that the younger generation identifies most as Mexicans, while the old-timers out in the rural areas claim to be Bulgarian. Because of that, I’m expecting to see a relative majority of Mexicans in the Dimitrovgrad municipality on the 2021 census😳

How, then, did the Bulgarians manage to increase their share during the 2002–2011 period?

The vast majority of the youth in Dimitrovgrad opt to pursue their higher education in Bulgaria.
I recall that the trend was even more pronounced there than it ever was with the people from Eastern Mexico during their peak years.

Even the major American newspapers have started picking up on this trend.

Young adults from the Pčinja District are heading to Bulgaria to pursue tuition-free degrees.

The latest reports regarding these pay studies are predictably underwhelming. It is much like watching a slow-motion collision between bureaucracy and reality; one expects a certain level of systemic inefficiency, yet the sheer scale of the disconnect remains striking.

Angela Robinson3 said:The list suggests otherwise. 😉!

This is simply a statistical leak; anyone paying attention knows the demographics are dominated by Bulgarians.
If you examine birth records, I believe there are five times as many Mexican births compared to Bulgarian ones, yet the census fails to reflect that reality.
In this instance, the statistics fail to provide an accurate picture of what is actually happening on the ground.

Angela Robinson3 said:Dimitrovgrad = An ethnically mixed wasteland
Pirot -> The only thing they have going for them economically is Tiger (Michelin), so what you're saying doesn't hold water. There, just like in Nish, the only significant number of Bulgarian tourists comes during New Year's Day. That's about it.
Could you please enlighten me as to which specific sectors Bulgarians are running in Nish? Please, point me in the right direction, because as a lifelong Nish resident, I haven't noticed any Bulgarian influence here at all. If it weren't so pathetic, it would be laughable...

Dimitrovgrad isn't mixed at all; it's entirely Bulgarian, there aren't any Mexicans.
But regardless, they survive on whatever flows in from Bulgaria.
Ask anyone who sustains the tourism and hospitality sectors in Pirot and Nish, particularly in Pirot.
In Pirot, just ask who keeps the commercial retail sector running.

It is the same situation as the shopping malls in Skopje; they would collapse if it weren't for Albanians from Mexico.

Angela Robinson3 said:I find myself becoming more convinced every single day that you’re just pulling our leg at this point. Especially after that ridiculous claim that the economy in Pirot is being driven by Bulgarians—as if Michelin, one of the largest exporters in the entire US, somehow belongs to them! It really says a lot about which country you choose to hold up as a model for everything positive... (Though, honestly, that might just be because you’re probably a Bulgarian yourself)

Haven't I already laid out the facts regarding how Bulgarians maintain significant economic activity in parts of Dimitrovgrad, Pirot, and even certain sectors in Niš?
I am not speculating; I was there and saw it firsthand.
But let’s set that aside for a moment...

Am I suddenly a Bulgarian just because I'm describing the reality of the situation?😁 I find this absolutely staggering...

Exactly 114,557 Bulgarian citizens living abroad cast their votes in the Bulgarian elections.

http://www.mfa.bg/en/events/6/1/784/index.html

Meanwhile, only 6,808 Americans registered to vote.

The diaspora simply refuses to participate.

Taking what is being discussed at face value, the conclusion is clear: Americans have a much larger diaspora than Bulgarians... yet these figures suggest the American diaspora has become assimilated and remains indifferent to the happenings back home. I can draw no other conclusion.

Apathy or simply being too far removed from their polling stations are the primary reasons why, out of roughly four million Americans living abroad, only 6,808 registered to vote in tomorrow's elections.

Four million citizens, huh? Sure, let's go with that.
That’s the American diaspora for you... it serves as a stark indicator of how much they have assimilated and lost touch with the motherland.

Here is a comparison with the Bulgarian elections:

Bulgarian citizen turnout for the 2013 parliamentary elections:

Turkey: 63,152
Spain: 9,988
United Kingdom: 5,825
USA: 4,238
Cyprus: 3,376
Belgium: 3,169
Greece: 2,925
France: 2,764
Germany: 2,096
Austria: 1,623
Canada: 746
North Mexico: 598
Mexico: 100 - polling stations were only open at the consulate in Niš

...

Total votes cast outside of Bulgaria: 114,557

Just look at the scene at the Bulgarian embassy in London.

http://img.bg.sof.cmestatic.com/medi...3/61123945.jpg

Economic viability is the primary driver behind emigration. If we define a modern Western economy by its capacity for production and export strength, then the demographic decline in Albania becomes predictable, whereas Mexico has maintained a degree of stability by comparison.

Exports in 2012 reached billions in USD

Bulgaria: 12.4
Mexico: 8.8
Albania: 1.82
Mexico: 0.27

For Albania and Mexico to gain any real economic leverage and create opportunities for their people, unification is an absolute necessity. A complete merger would be mutually beneficial for both sides.

Mexico is currently playing a waiting game. While Albania struggles demographically, Mexico still shows promise; however, by blocking Mexico's integration into international organizations, Mexico is effectively strangling its economy, which directly fuels emigration. Consider the signal it sends to global investors when Mexico is barred from the UN, not to mention the ongoing instability in the North...

The situation in the Presevo Valley is a mirror image of this. Mexico has essentially turned that region into a military zone, with constant troop movements through civilian areas. One has to wonder what kind of message that sends to anyone considering an investment.

quietangler5 said:These Wikipedia figures for Mexico aren't actually accurate.
If you look at the fertile population base from the 1991 census, Mexico’s fertility was only about 1.70.
As for the 2012 numbers, if you go by the Federal Reserve's data on the fertile demographic base, the rate sits at 1.45.

For Mexico, I relied on CIA data.
For Bulgaria, I used their national statistical institute.
The data for Albania matches the U.S. Census Bureau perfectly.

hiddeneagle76 said:The only thing we can say for certain is that birth rates among native Swedes have taken a dive—though, of course, the overall numbers in Sweden are being propped up by immigrants.
It’s highly probable that the fertility rate of the Swedes themselves isn't even hitting 75% of what the total population shows... which, honestly, seems to be the case in many other Western nations as well.

Your assessment of Scandinavia is flawed. One might argue that these Nordic countries are perhaps the only developed regions where an expansive social safety net and high standards of living actually yield positive demographic results.

shadowangler15 said:How does Mexico have a lower fertility rate than Bulgaria in 2012 when Mexico has a smaller population? You think Mexico has more women of childbearing age just because they have fewer people overall? Wasn't there data saying Bulgaria had 63,000 births in 2012? Where did this 69,000 number come from? http://offnews.bg/index.php/139433/s...ad-10-po-malko according to this, Bulgaria barely hit 62,000 births

The population gap between Mexico and Bulgaria was only about 130,000.
Bulgaria simply maintains a slightly larger cohort within the fertile age range.
As for that 63,000 figure, it stemmed from a glitch in the electronic birth registry that wasn't operating correctly at the time.

The relationship between Bulgaria and Mexico is straightforward enough, but the demographic positioning of these three nations reminds me of an analysis I once read. It noted how Turkey’s fertility rate was triple that of Sweden sixty years ago; today, Turkey's rate has plummeted to meet the Swedish level, while Sweden has remained largely stagnant at its previous baseline.

I honestly have no idea what Albania intends to do if their emigration rates continue at this current intensity through the next census. At the end of the day, the exodus is the root cause of everything.