Should we bring back lockdowns?
in Coronavirus ·
Megan Green72 said:Your comment has zero to do with mine.
So what, you'd rather have "experts" design policy based on a best-case scenario? 🤔
Of course you ask for the worst-case scenario to plan your response. I don't see what the big deal is.
Yeah, I heard those analyses were done by some low-level hacks from the Robert Koch Institute too.
By that logic, we could just construct a worst-case scenario where 20,000 people die on American highways in 2021, and then use that specific projection to justify banning motor vehicles entirely.
That scenario is perfectly valid and theoretically possible, and any measures resulting from it would guarantee—and I mean absolutely guarantee—that at least a few lives are saved. No cars on the road means no traffic accidents and no fatalities. It’s a simple matter of cause and effect.
I really don't understand why this is being contested. 🤷
And fine, I know what comes next. You'll argue that the virus was an unknown variable, that it was unpredictable, and that even the most brilliant scientists in the world couldn't have foreseen how this completely novel respiratory virus would behave compared to anything ever recorded in history. Fine. Theoretically, that scenario was just as plausible as my highway example above.
However. If it has since become clear that such a scenario was off by several orders of magnitude, is it actually controversial to point out that we are still implementing policies based on it? Or that after a full year, the perceived danger is still being communicated through the lens of that flawed model? Is there perhaps some merit to questioning that? 🤷