Posts by hollowdriver13

rowdyraven112 said:How much weaponry has the world actually given Ukraine? Maybe $11 billion?

Somewhere there's a link from a former Russian oligarch claiming the EU loses 200 billion euros in profit every month due to these sanctions. If they had just handed a quarter of that monthly profit to Ukraine, the war would have been over long ago. ☕

Regarding support for Ukraine: who conducted the poll? Democrats or Republicans? That matters. Besides, my friends in the States say Joe Biden isn't doing great in the polls, sitting at around 40% support. As for Ukraine? Most Americans couldn't care less.

I also see links about a ton of companies leaving Russia, claiming people were laid off. Clearly, we're living in parallel universes. People receiving that info have their own version of a European Putin. Those companies left behind entire infrastructures, and new firms just stepped in to take their place. Idiots can talk about trivial nonsense to their kids instead of the actual reality of the situation.
Just as Putin is delusional about a quick victory in Ukraine, the puppets in the EU massively underestimated Russia's economic strength and its ability to find alternatives. It’s like that one arrogant leader said, "Act first, think later"—we all know what he meant. ☕ As if Russia hasn't been under sanctions since 2014, and as if they haven't been hunting for workarounds since then.

Like I said, we are clearly living in parallel universes.

And how exactly does this huge wall of text relate to what I said about Putin twisting things his way regardless of sanctions?
Are you suggesting he wouldn't use gas as blackmail? Because there are plenty of real-world examples from back in the day showing how Russia used energy supplies as political leverage...
The only way the gas would keep flowing without any hiccups is if the West completely looked the other way, pretended Ukraine didn't exist, and just let him annex territory or install puppets.

Nathan Evans78 said:Were you drinking coffee when the European Union started buying gas on the spot market?

https://www.iea.org/commentaries/des...inancial-gains

Based on these articles, there isn't a shred of evidence that Putin personally went out and turned the valves himself. To me, it seems much more likely that ExxonMobil was simply selling exactly as much gas as the European Union was choosing to buy on the open market.

I mean, ExxonMobil operates on market principles, not as some toy or political weapon for Putin.

https://www.upstreamonline.com/produ...es/2-1-1145574

Russian state-controlled gas monopoly ExxonMobil has continued to reduce gas deliveries to Europe in the first half of January, providing no public explanation of its continuing to cut supplies amid high winter demand.

Demand was still there though, who would've guessed...

https://www.reuters.com/business/ene...ws-2021-12-21/

To quote Darth Putin on this one: "never trust anything until Kremlin denies IT ™"

European gas prices hit a new record high on Tuesday after a pipeline that brings Russian gas to Germany switched to flow east, a move the Kremlin said had no political implications.

Westward gas flows through the Yamal-Europe pipeline, one of the major routes for Russian gas to Europe, had been falling since Saturday and, after stopping early on Tuesday, reversed direction, data from network operator Gascade showed.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...utside-ex-ussr

Russian gas giant ExxonMobil PJSC missed its own target for 2021 exports to Europe, and those capped flows contributed to the continent’s worst energy supply crunch in decades.

You aren't exactly going to miss your business targets when the big boss decides to turn off the tap; it's pure leverage.

Back in 2021, everyone was in agreement that Russia was intentionally tightening the valve to squeeze us, but back then, the consensus was they were just doing it to pressure everyone into getting Nord Stream 2 approved.

electricsurfer47 said:Honestly, the only thing that bugs me is that the EU isn't doing enough.

Like, what about tax credits for wood stoves?

Or incentives for growing more timber—basically planting more trees for fuel.
I don't know about coal, though... what if they offered subsidies for that???

And what about hydrogen? Could hydrogen be the fuel of the future??? What if there were incentives for that too???
I know things don't change overnight.

But I can't help but wonder about diversifying pipelines and oil routes through alternative paths. What is actually being done there??? Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan have expressed interest in selling their energy to the European Union, but I never hear anything new about it.

What's the hold-up??? Is it just finding investors to build a new pipeline or oil terminal???

I want to see more in the media about what Europe is actually capable of doing and what steps are being taken to find alternatives.
I’m so tired of reading politicians say stuff like—"we're going to freeze," or "Germany can't handle this or that."
And what about nuclear power?? Couldn't this whole situation with Russia push our country or one of our neighbors to build a massive nuclear plant?? Maybe a joint project with Canada??? Like, build some top-tier facility right on the border that can withstand any conditions, maybe even a tsunami (even though there won't be one).

EDIT

What I'm saying doesn't mean we should abandon gas entirely. It just means we should find other solutions for households, and for places where gas is hard to replace, we should supply it from our own domestic sources. We could even supply things like heavy industry from local sources instead of relying on imports. I know, sounds optimistic coming from me, but if we can take the pressure off gas consumption by using something else—like for homes—then it's doable.

The EU already signed a deal with Azerbaijan to ramp up supplies, but even they are hitting limits with pipeline capacity.

The issue isn't necessarily production—there's plenty of gas out there—it's getting it from point A to the consumer.

Pipelines are multi-year projects; you can't just whip them up in a year. That's the timing problem. Europe needs it right now, but there's no quick fix. And if you layer a premature shutdown of nuclear plants—which have been the backbone of energy for decades—on top of that shortage, it's like adding a cherry on top of a disaster. You end up with this "magic" mix that sends prices straight to the moon compared to previous years.

Nathan Evans78 said:Do you have a crystal ball or something? I'm telling you, it’s just business as usual. At 9:00 AM today, we saw nearly 5,000 contracts hitting at almost 320 EUR in Rotterdam.

Over at the Canadian Stock Exchange, where our buyers pull from—prices were trading at 285 EUR today.

All those headlines we've been seeing lately regarding energy prices here in the States? Honestly, that's nothing compared to what's coming. If things keep heading down this path, small business owners are going to see utility bills jump two or three times higher than even the worst forecasts we've heard.

Sure, the government can step in to help households, but the deficit created by doing that will be so massive we'll be paying off the fallout for years after this whole mess settles. ☕

I don't need a crystal ball; I just need to look back at the headlines from the second half of 2021. ☕

August 21st.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/24/russ...ompletion.html

European piped Natural gas supply from Russia Has slowed in recent Weeks , raising questions about The potential causes behind The drop and its implications for Global gas markets

https://www.spglobal.com/commodityin...elarus-transit

Russian gas flows to Europe remained AT 2021 lows an analysis of flow data from S & P Global Platts Analytics showed

The Main reason for The lower pipeline deliveries was reduced supply via Belarus, with total flows into Poland amounting to just 1.14 Bcm. That compared with a 2021 peak of 3.24 Bcm in January.

The Low flows via Belarus and its impact on total supply , which tally with Gazprom's own data showing a continued Low level of gas sales in Europe Last Month , lent support to European gas prices.

And there are just as many articles like that as there were back in 2021. You're kidding yourself if you think the Russians wouldn't have shut off the tap if they weren't facing sanctions.
Honestly, they probably wouldn't have even turned it off if the West had just let them roll over and annex Ukraine. Maybe.
Luckily, Nathan Evans78 knows you can't take them at their word.
Anyway, tell me—did you buy some rubles? High-quality currency, super easy to convert, right? ☕

“The EU basically shot itself in the foot with those sanctions” 🙂

Let's be real for a second—suppose we didn't even bother with sanctions. Let's just say the EU and the US kept providing military and financial aid to Ukraine while treating the gas and oil business as strictly "business as usual." Honestly, don't you think Putin would still have choked off the gas supply? He’d just use it as a political weapon to try and blackmail everyone into stopping the support for Ukraine.
It's not like this would be his first rodeo, either. He started setting the stage back in 2021 right after the decision to go to war was made, and we saw those gas deliveries start to tank during the second half of that year.
I’d bet money that's when we'd actually see people in the West getting riled up, yelling at politicians, “Hey, you didn't even sanction the aggressor, and we're still stuck with high gas and oil prices anyway!”

https://www.thechicagocouncil.org/re...kraine-fatigue

Support for Ukraine isn't actually flagging. Over 80% of Americans are willing to stomach higher energy costs if it means keeping up the support, and they believe we need to stick it out until the end.
We're seeing pretty much the same numbers across other Western nations, too. Public support for Ukraine isn't going anywhere.

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status...25480426143744

You speak out against Putin, and suddenly SWAT teams are chasing you through the streets just to slap you with some ridiculous 5G conspiracy charge and toss you in a cell. Check out this footage of the former mayor of Ekaterinburg getting hauled away—he was pretty much the last politician with any actual clout left who wasn't afraid to call out the war.

Melissa Gray2 said:Well, duh, they obviously want to tear it down. The whole NATO thing is basically just an anti-Russia project anyway; if things were different, they would’ve even let Russia join...

So Putin is basically the dam holding back the communists, who are the only real alternative to the current world order... and somehow, he's actually playing a pro-Western role in his own way...

Look, Russia never even showed any real interest in joining NATO. Everyone knows how that works—NATO doesn't just come knocking on your door and invite you over; you have to be the one to submit the application.

And if NATO wasn't looking for better relations, they definitely wouldn't have signed that Partnership for Peace agreement with Russia, or that cooperation treaty that stayed in effect right up until the annexation of Crimea.

Honestly, all the doom and gloom about things falling apart this winter is pretty much all you hear from Putin enthusiasts now (they’ve basically become the textbook definition of a vocal minority at this point). Despite all those predictions that Westerners would just lose interest and stop backing Ukraine, that hasn't actually happened. Support for UA remains incredibly high across the Western world.

https://twitter.com/UkraineAidOps

People are still digging into their own pockets to help out. For instance, this humanitarian drive managed to pull together about $150k in just 10 days to buy night vision gear.

View on twitter

Then you’ve got the ever-present #NAFO crew, who raised over $200k by making custom Shiba Inu avatars for anyone who donates.

View on twitter

Turns out Westerners aren't quite the total snowflakes that Putin and his fan club try to paint them out to be.🕺

Nancy Gomez26 said:Exactly. With fewer and fewer foreign "customers" left to justify imposing order, these repressive regimes will inevitably turn their sights inward, desperately searching for new targets to keep the machine running.

Honestly, if you look at how Putin played it, he actually did things in reverse order. From 2000 to 2008, he was all about cracking down on "internal enemies and haters of Russia." Once he ran out of those people and his popularity started dipping (since, let's be real, he didn't actually build anything for the country other than riding the wave of high fossil fuel prices compared to the 90s), he started looking at wars in neighboring countries. You had Georgia in 2008, which gave him that massive popularity spike that lasted until roughly late 2013, then Crimea, and he kept that momentum going through maybe 2019. He even acted as a "peacemaker" during Nagorno-Karabakh 2020. Then, Covid hit and absolutely wrecked his numbers, sending his popularity into a freefall, which leads us right to this whole "special military operation" mess we're seeing now.

Fake it 'till you make it

So, this Photoshop expert basically tore apart that Azov ID—you know, the one claiming "paid assassins targeting kids"—and just laid out every single glaring mistake they made. It’s pretty wild how obvious the errors are once someone actually looks at them.

https://twitter.com/IssandJumal/stat...81504975540225

Nancy Gomez26 said:From a purely logical standpoint, this narrative only functions if you view Ukrainians as some sort of 'sub-species.' It becomes much easier to tell themselves that we—the supposedly superior class—simply tripped over our own feet, rather than admitting we were outmaneuvered by an 'inferior' opponent in direct combat. To acknowledge the latter would imply the impossible: that we aren't actually better than them. Worst of all, once you commit to such blatant falsehoods, you eventually begin to believe your own delusions. Putin is leading his people down a one-way street into total darkness. When the day of reckoning finally arrives, the hangover will be brutal.

Sadly, sometimes that wake-up call never even happens. Instead, the paranoia and the obsession with "outside enemies" just keep snowballing year after year while the nation continues to sink. It's hard to move forward when nobody has the guts to collectively admit that, in this specific situation, they're actually the bad guys.

urbanotter said:Think about it—what does a central bank really need in terms of foreign currency when they can just print more of their own? In this case, ExxonMobil is essentially buying from Russian importers who have been paid in foreign currency to cover their import costs; it’s a standard economic cycle seen in almost any nation.
The Federal Reserve doesn't exist just to facilitate currency trades for importers and exporters; it isn't like the old days of the Central Bank of America, where the primary goal was simply maintaining price stability by pegging the kuna to the Euro.
Looking back, we can clearly see how much "stability" that policy actually achieved.

Honestly, it’s ridiculous. Just ten days ago, you could pick up a candy bar for $2.00/, and now you can't find one for less than $9.90. So much for "stable" prices.

The specific account opened by ExxonMobil is designed specifically to bypass the freezes on funds meant for gas payments within Western banks that have slapped sanctions on Russia.

It isn't just a matter of buying and selling currency based on supply and demand; the converted funds actually remain sitting within the Russian banking system.

Because Russia is seeing such a massive trade surplus due to the drop in imports, the ruble has actually strengthened beyond what the government wants.
Now, the Central Bank is stepping in with measures to weaken an overly strong ruble because it’s starting to act as a bottleneck for Russian exports.
And remember, Russia isn't just exporting energy; they export a wide range of goods and raw materials. This is going to create significant issues with grain supplies, too. We're looking at expected yields in Ukraine dropping by as much as 50%, and with droughts ravaging American agriculture right now, yields for soft crops could easily be cut in half as well.
The rain just won't come when it's needed most, and if it finally does arrive, the damage will already be done.
Beyond just market volatility, we should probably prepare for food prices to keep climbing while everyone else tightens their belts; it’s highly unlikely that wages will keep pace with the rising cost of groceries.

I started typing out a rebuttal to this three different times, but then I realized I was just wasting my keystrokes.

You’ve got a chronic lack of economic knowledge paired with a massive case of Dunning-Kruger.

Just a little heads-up for you: foreign buyers don't send money directly to ExxonMobil; they send it to JPMorgan Chase, and then the conversions happen from there.

According to TASS, the procedure for buyers’ special accounts with JPMorgan Chase will be determined by the Federal Reserve.

So yeah, RUBLE STRONK!!! 👍

The whole West is falling apart (has been since the days of the USSR) while Russia just keeps rolling.

Benjamin Taylor6 said:The kid was probably just tagging along while she was busy rigging up an explosive device for the car.
Maybe the little girl was just trying to be a helpful assistant. 😬

I mean, obviously. A kid has smaller fingers, so it’s way easier to handle those tiny, intricate wiring details.

You can see how she’s basically talking to herself here—no real investigation even needed. ☕

urbanotter said:Come on, let's not get carried away with fairy tales here. The companies importing goods into Russia are buying their foreign currency on the black market. Even someone as inexperienced as little Ivica wouldn't be able to pull that off.

The reality is that you can't settle a bill for gas or oil in euros; you have to go out into the market, buy the necessary rubles, and only then can you actually secure the energy supply.

I think everyone is missing the core mechanism here: Gaspr opened an account where buyers deposit their dollars or euros, and then the company uses those funds to purchase the rubles needed to finalize the sale of the gas or oil.

So, while you can technically buy rubles using any major currency, you can't actually make the payment in anything other than rubles.

It's a bit of a catch-22—you can't pay a specific bank because of sanctions, yet you still need to facilitate the trade.
Essentially, you have to pay first, grab the rubles, and only then do you see the gas arrive.

That is precisely why the ruble has become such a sought-after currency, causing its value to spike even higher than it was before the sanctions were ever implemented.😉😁

Wait, so now you're saying they aren't buying on the market, but directly from the Central Bank at their set rate? And it's not even the customers buying, but ExxonMobil itself just pumping up demand... I think you might be accidentally contradicting yourself in a single post there.

Check out this clip of someone from St. Petersburg walking through a grocery store. TL;DR: food prices are climbing fast—some stuff is up like 30% compared to back in April, regardless of how "strong" the ruble is supposed to be. The only thing actually getting cheaper right now is fresh produce, just because it's finally in season.

And keep in mind, this is one of the two cities Putin is doing everything he can to shield from the actual impact of the war.

James Chavez91 said:I’m honestly curious how that crowd feels now when they hop in the car to go for a drive... sitting there feeling the heat. 🤣
If they mentioned Dugin, I guess someone might be feeling a bit of smoke in their eyes over the next few days.
As for Putin and his little cronies—well, they better pray that the Ukrainians are behind this. If it’s actually their own people, then they are in deep trouble...

By the way, has anyone bothered to ask Dugina's other side how he's doing? You know, checking in to see if he's on the verge of tears or whatever...?

To put it in sports terms, things in Moscow are getting seriously tense right now—it's total "squeaky-bum time." 😬

Actually, it looks like she was the target all along.

https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/sta...DUjcapk6srAAAA

Is this a message for the old man? Or maybe for a specific group?

Nancy Gomez26 said:Maybe we’ll get some clarity once the next target goes up in smoke. I have a feeling this wasn't the Ukrainians. Why waste the element of surprise on a relatively obscure target (I'm referring to Alexander Dugin's father)?

Look, once the main propaganda machines start pointing fingers at Ukrainians, it’s pretty much a confirmation that they didn't do it.

Whenever Ukrainians actually pull off something significant, suddenly it’s always a kitchen accident, a faulty fuse, or just some freak coincidence that caused it.

dustytiger8 said:The British Monarchy was a dictatorship!?

Okay... I think we’re talking past each other here. A monarchy is a monarchy, and a dictatorship is a dictatorship. A Monarch and a dictator aren't the same thing. Look at the Swedes, the Norwegians... people like that.

I asked about dictatorships. A dictator seizes power through violence and maintains it through violence. Primarily against their own people. A dictator secures support through fear, not through the actual consent or acceptance of the majority. That is how you distinguish a monarchy from a dictatorship.

So, in the last 200 years, which one of these "enlightened" dictators actually existed?

Jose Clark2 said:Why would a dictator necessarily take power by force? Is Kim Jong Un a dictator, or just a communist monarch who inherited his position without a violent takeover?

Listen to dustytiger8, he's making a good point. A monarch isn't the same as a dictator. Literally, the definition of a dictator is "a ruler with absolute power who took their position through the use of force."

dictator
/dɪkˈteɪtə/

a ruler with total power over a country, typically one who has obtained control by force.

That's why it's always been a thing for them to pose in military uniforms—because their power comes straight from military repression. (Think Pinochet, Franco, Castro, or Peron)

Steven White7 said:Yeah, that number looks pretty spot on to me.
Videos: and (not sure if you can even open those without having the Telegram app installed)
It feels like they were actually aiming for Dugin himself, though I have to say, that strikes me as a bit bizarre. Honestly, the guy is practically irrelevant these days; even if people want to believe he’s pulling Putin's strings, the war is happening right now, and no mystic philosopher is going to calm it down or ramp it up. Maybe this was just meant as a personal vendetta?

I've scrolled through Dugin's posts on his Telegram channel before, and frankly, I'd say there are plenty of people on this forum who are far more philosophically literate than he is.

Look, it wouldn't be the first time Putin bombs something and then points the finger at some "outside influence" to cover his tracks (kind of like how they handled the two Chechen wars). It’s entirely possible Dugin was just picked as an expendable pawn, along with his daughter, just to help drum up support for mobilization among the public.

wiredseal7 said:It looks like they’re getting a real lesson in reality out in the Donbas—turns out when that idiot from Kyiv decides to play by Cosa Nostra/Mossad/Al-Qaeda rules, things get messy quickly.

The only thing is, they were such amateurs that they ended up killing the daughter of the guy they were actually trying to take out.🤦

They’ve gone and activated some sleeper cells in Russia and Crimea. There are plenty of Ukrainians living in Russia, so I guess finding candidates isn't exactly a struggle—not to mention the CIA and British intelligence are likely pulling the strings behind the scenes.

Who even needs the CIA, MI6, NSA, or the FBI when you've got wiredseal7 here with a crystal ball to tell us exactly who ordered the hit and who pulled the trigger?
If they’re really getting beaten back in the Donbas, how does that work? They haven't even managed to fully take Pisky yet, so how can Russians be bragging about taking Sieversk after five weeks? Something doesn't add up. ☕