Posts by hollowdriver13

wiredseal7 said:It looks like Russia had some decent intel in Ukraine, knowing they'd be facing another Ukrainian push toward Donetsk and Luhansk—which naturally triggered Russia to start massing troops.

So they throttled the gas, while simultaneously hoping for a quick green light on Nord Stream 2 (spoiler alert: it didn't work, since the new German government played exactly how they were told).

But honestly, why didn't those "brilliant" Germans sign a contract guaranteeing larger gas volumes upon request? Everything was still strictly by the book.

What *isn't* by the book or following international norms, though, is what Germany is threatening now—nationalizing Nord Stream 2 and rerouting everything to a floating LNG terminal.

So, are we saying there wasn't actually a massive buildup, just plans for one?
The narrative coming from the Russian side was that Ukraine had already assembled about 120k soldiers there, and yet they never actually launched a strike against the Russian positions in the RAO regions. Plus, all that troop movement near the Belarusian border surely could have helped the folks in Donbas, but hey, they never actually showed any real proof of this supposed buildup.

Back at the start of autumn, everyone—including the International Energy Agency—was begging Russia to ramp up gas supplies because levels were hitting historic lows.

https://www.theguardian.com/business...-before-winter

So, the idea that Russia wasn't using oil and gas as a weapon just doesn't hold water. With their invasion of Ukraine, it’s pretty obvious why they did it: they were trying to squeeze Europe (even if people thought back then it was just pressure to get Nord Stream 2 approved, which clearly wasn't the end game—that would've just been the icing on the cake).

Kazes, I get that Germany wanting to nationalize the pipeline isn't ideal, but how is that law passed through the Duma okay? If some multinational corporation decides to pull out of Russia, the state can just automatically seize all that company's assets on Russian soil. Could you explain how that aligns with international standards? What's really the difference between that and what Germany is currently considering?

https://rtvi.com/news/gosduma-prinya...hnyh-kompanij/

Thomas Ward13 said:ha ha ha, are you actually reading this? These guys are even more intense than Russian propaganda.

Look, since this is from Jutarnji, it's always tough to verify actual casualty numbers, but it's definitely not wrong to say these rebels are being used as total cannon fodder. Check out this Twitter account from someone actually fighting for the RAO regions:

https://twitter.com/ChatterFax

"The platoons are taking heavy losses. Our unit is down to just 8 out of 22 men. The Slavs are taking heavy losses too. Communication is terrible over here."

"Yes certain #Ukrainian positions have been knocked out in #Avdiivka, but what about the word on the losses during the process? Especially regarding the 1st Slavic Brigade? Honestly, I’m shocked I’m still alive."

After June 6th, the tweets just stopped. It's possible he was... uh... put on permanent leave after that date.

I honestly don't know where to start with this one, but I feel like we really need to dig into what’s actually happening here. It feels like everyone is just skimming the surface, and frankly, I think we're missing the forest for the trees. I was thinking about this earlier today while grabbing coffee, and it hit me how much noise there is surrounding this topic. We get so caught up in the immediate drama that we forget to look at the underlying mechanics of why things are shifting the way they are. It's easy to react, but it's much harder to sit back and actually analyze the patterns. I'm curious to see if anyone else feels that same sense of unease, or if it's just me overthinking things again. I have a tendency to go down these rabbit holes, which probably isn't helping my productivity, but sometimes you just have to follow the thread to see where it leads. What do you guys think? Is this a temporary spike in tension, or are we looking at a fundamental change in how things operate? I'd love to hear some different perspectives on this—let's try to break it down properly. kaže:
A little caviar. Just me and some vodka tonight.😉
Honestly, you can't go wrong with this combo. It’s actually pretty solid.😁

Give this a read if you want some actual substance instead of the mindless, clickbait demagoguery being peddled by the tabloids and YouTubers.

I was just catching up on that deep dive about how much control we actually have over our own destinies versus being pushed around by global forces. It’s one of those topics that really makes you sit back and wonder if any of us are truly pulling the strings, or if we're all just passengers on a ride we didn't sign up for. The whole discussion touches on that tension between individual agency and the massive, sweeping movements of geopolitics. You know, that feeling where you try to make a move, but then some huge shift in Washington or a sudden economic pivot halfway across the country completely changes the landscape under your feet. It’s a bit humbling, honestly. I often find myself thinking I’ve got my life mapped out, only to realize the "big picture" stuff—the stuff happening in boardrooms in New York or during high-level summits—has a way of rewriting my script without asking. There's this idea floating around that everything is interconnected, which is true, but it can also feel pretty overwhelming. Like, does my daily grind even matter when the macro-trends are shifting so violently? It’s easy to get lost in that cynicism, but I think there’s value in finding that middle ground. We might not be able to steer the giant ocean liner, but we can certainly decide how we handle the deck we're standing on. It reminded me of a point hollowdriver13 made a while back about how much influence we project through our small actions. Even if the massive gears of power are turning elsewhere, the way we interact with our own communities and local economies still builds the foundation for what happens next. It’s not about controlling the storm; it’s about how we build the house. Anyway, just some rambling thoughts after reading that piece. What do you guys think? Are we actually in the driver's seat, or are we just along for the ride?

Just another Russian myth floating around. They aren't even close to being the biggest caviar producers on the planet, and they definitely don't hold a monopoly on the high-end stuff like Beyoncé. Honestly, pretty much every country bordering the Caspian Sea produces it now—just in those tiny little quotas you see, since the fish has become such a critically endangered species. ☕

urbanotter said:Look, help me out here because I’m genuinely struggling to wrap my head around this.

What specifically have the Russians done to blackmail the West regarding gas deliveries?
Was it cutting back on agreed amounts, hiking up prices, or maybe delivering nothing but air instead of actual gas?🤷
Please walk me through it, because right now, this whole idea of "blackmail" feels more like empty rhetoric or political spin to me rather than a verifiable fact.🙄

Well, off the top of my head? For the entire last year, they kept deliveries at the absolute bare minimum allowed by their contracts. They were basically draining out their storage facilities located within the European Union just to clear them out, setting the stage to squeeze energy consumers later. It’s pretty obvious when you look at the paper trail—after the invasion kicked off in February 2022, leaked documents showed the United States already had intel back in April 2021 that Russia was gearing up for an invasion.
Anyway, feel free to keep spouting your nonsense if it makes you feel better.

Gregory Ramos3 said:

Germany is looking into seizing parts of Nord Stream 2 - Der Spiegel

The German Ministry of Economy is reportedly weighing the possibility of expropriating portions of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline—which is mostly owned by Russia—to help move gas from terminals along the Baltic Sea, according to a report from Der Spiegel this Friday.

According to Der Spiegel, the Ministry is basically checking if they can just take over sections of the pipeline system located on German soil and split them off from the rest of the network.

The weekly publication mentions that this seized chunk of the pipeline would be used to transport gas arriving at an LNG terminal on the Baltic Sea.

Moscow chimed in on Friday, saying they have absolutely no comment regarding what Der Spiegel is reporting.

It’s pretty funny how they’re staying totally silent on this, yet they were all over the Lithuanian blockade of Kaliningrad like it was their job. ☕

And honestly, all those threats? They’re just empty words at this point. Especially after the USA made it crystal clear they have Lithuania's back 100%, basically telling them if Russia makes a move, the US Army will be paying them a visit. Now, instead of making actual threats in the news, they’re just whining about how the USA is responsible for the blockade. 🙂

Nobody is falling for that whole "escalate to de-escalate" tactic anymore. I’d hope they’ve figured that out by now.

It looks like Russia might be hitting technical bankruptcy starting today.
They’ve got $400 million in interest coming due right now.

https://twitter.com/lzhs25095432/sta...77386947448834

USA says IT will pay dollar-denominated foreign debt in dollars. Vladimir Putin already signed off on the decree. Basically, they're going to settle up using the domestic exchange rate, and they won't even bother considering what the people actually holding those US Treasury bonds think about it.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/r...from-u-s-banks

Since Russia is planning to swap out their dollar debts for rubles, most international investors are probably going to view this as a straight-up default.

swiftjackal11 said:Back in July 2008, we saw crude hit a record high of $147 a barrel. Even then, gas was sitting at $9.75 and diesel was $3.25. Basically, oil was about 40 percent more expensive back then, yet fuel prices were actually 20 to 30 percent lower than they are now. What's the catch? Why is everything so pricey today?
And back then, there wasn't any conflict with Russia or Ukraine.

You gotta factor in inflation, man. That $147 back in 2008 is basically like having $199 in 2022.

swiftjackal11 said:I wonder how low the barrel price needs to drop before we see gas under $3.25🤷

Back when we were seeing gas around $3.25-$$3.75, Brent was sitting right at about $85
a barrel.

brightheron64 said:Oh please, let's not get carried away with such lofty optimism...

Let’s try some very basic math here... suppose Russian oil and gas production accounts for roughly 10% of global consumption...

If you shut that off, you’re suddenly missing 10% of your supply that needs replacing. And then what happens...?
Do you honestly think that the other 90% of producers are going to be all altruistic and decide to keep prices steady, or better yet, lower them because they just love us so much?

Let's look at it from a more practical, everyday perspective... imagine you have an abundance of gasoline, while I'm left with nothing...
- The first time, maybe you'll give me some for free because you're such a saint...
- The second time, you'll sell it to me at the standard market rate...
- But the third time? You'll cut me off and tell me it's either a 20% markup or I can start walking...

But what shortage are we even talking about?

The pro-Russian crowd keeps harping on about how India and China are going to vacuum up all that Russian oil.

But if we use basic logic—those two countries only have so much capacity to consume or store stuff, and most of their oil currently comes from the Middle East. That means they’ll naturally end up buying less from the Arab states. Those producers aren't exactly going to turn off the taps just to do Russia a favor; instead, they’ll pivot that supply toward wherever the demand is highest—which is Western markets—and the whole loop closes itself.

At the end of the day, this current price spike isn't really about a physical shortage; it's driven by speculators who are pumping up prices by grabbing production quotas early, fueled by that "hey, there might be supply issues later, better safe than sorry" mindset.

View on twitter

Looks like the hacking strikes are finally starting to kick in too. They’ve been playing it cool and acting like they weren't being touched for a while, but it feels like all that digital damage Anonymous has been dealing to Russia is finally catching up to them.

Bryan Booth82 said:This nation emerged as the ultimate lifeline to replace Russian oil. Massive tankers are flooding into Europe now that Americans have lifted export bans and sanctions.

lp

And all those people who love Russia were claiming Maduro wouldn't throw Putin under the bus, and that he definitely wouldn't turn his back on the West or those dirty petrodollars just to be difficult... until suddenly, "it's nothing personal, just good business." 🕺
It’s the exact same deal with Iran—lots of big talk, but they'd probably jump at the chance to trade if it meant getting off the sanctions list. Honestly, only a fool wouldn't try to cash in on their natural resources while they still can. The golden age of hydrocarbons is winding down, and you don't want to be sitting on massive reserves that end up being totally useless.

https://twitter.com/BBCSteveR/status...50853428461570

It looks like the Russian press is really leaning hard into that whole "we're doing just fine" coping mechanism lately regarding all these sanctions.

steelfox98 said:With the most hardcore advocates of their version of "democracy," you don't even have the right to an opinion. If you dare to think differently, you're immediately labeled a Russian sympathizer or a Putin follower. It’s exhausting.
It’s easy to feed any official narrative to people who lack the wits to spot such an obvious oxymoron. I saw this happening back in Chicago during the election cycles—just pure manipulation.

It’s easy to play dumb and pretend you didn't see what the entire world witnessed. I've seen it before in DC—people closing their eyes when the truth is staring them right in the face.
The footage is grim. Just another day in this crumbling era. I remember watching similar chaos back when I was stationed near Fort Bragg—nothing ever truly changes, just the names of the players. This is exhausting.

Whose citizen was Khashoggi anyway? And who practically did nothing while he was being dismembered? Look at Biden, heading off to Riyadh in just a week.

Americans have maintained this strategic alliance with Saudi leadership since the seventies. Not even Wahhabi bombings on US or EU soil changed a thing.
On the flip side, Russia and Saudi Arabia have barely managed symbolic contact for decades. They cooperate on a few niche interests here and there, but that’s it.

The peak of hypocrisy in all this is Yemen. For years now, Americans and us in the EU have been training and arming the Saudis just so they can kill civilians more efficiently. Compared to the body count there, Ukraine looks insignificant. No one complains.

Well, buddy, you’ve definitely proven your point now 🙏 🙏

So, we're supposed to "see" an audio recording of NOTHING coming from some random YouTube account with like 855 subscribers? 🙏 🙏
What kind of "proof" or "quality" argument is even that? 🙏

hint : Resemble, Descript, ReSpeecher—honestly, when you're dealing with a public figure who has tons of voice recordings floating around online, even someone who isn't exactly a genius could whip up a deepfake voice clip using those programs. ☕

Margaret Simoyan: "Once the famine hits, they'll lift those sanctions and we'll be buddies again."🤦

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/st...11097138331648

I mean, seriously, what kind of mindset is that? Like, what is actually going on inside her head? 🙏

little punk said:It was actually called the Department of War, so maybe do a little homework on how things evolved. Call me whatever you want, I don't care.

Sure, you could argue that NATO basically functions as a Department of War. ☕

I mean, you mentioned a war council, then a war department... what's left of those two once you're done renaming everything? 🤔

Give me a date, a location, and a list of people involved if we're going to play this rebranding game.

Edit:

What on earth does a national Department of War have to do with NATO? Every single country had a Department of War before WW2, and after that, everyone just switched over to calling it the Department of Defense.

Even the USSR had a Department of War before WW2, which they renamed the Ministry of Defense back in '53—so what, does that make them part of NATO now?

scumbag said:So, was it just some war council that later got a politically correct makeover into a "defense alliance" to make it sound better? Sounds pretty shady to me...

I mean, you could actually try to back that up if you knew exactly when and where NATO supposedly rebranded from a war council into a defense alliance. Otherwise, you're just straight-up lying or just trolling at this point.

Bryan Booth82 said:I honestly don't get it—why aren't the Ukrainians making a serious attempt to damage or completely take out that bridge connecting Crimea to Russia?
Hitting that target would be the single most powerful move possible to actually boost morale on the ground.

Maybe they’re just holding that card in reserve... waiting for the exact right moment when it matters most.🤔

Word is that Russia has sunk something like $19 billion into that infrastructure, so if they were to suffer some major damage or a total shutdown at one or more points... man, that would hurt them where it counts.

Best,

Even if they had missiles with enough range, you can't just blast a bridge like that into oblivion with rockets. At best, you'll mess up the roadway or punch some holes in it, but that's not going to threaten the actual structural integrity of the thing. Plus, those holes can eventually be patched up. Just look at when the Russians fired something like 20 rounds at that bridge over the Dniester—they didn't bring it down, they just scuffed up the surface. On top of that, you have to remember the Russians are guarding it with an S-400 air defense system.

wiredseal7 said:The 2002 Agreement:

http://en.kremlin.ru/supplement/3537
1. The parties acknowledge the unique situation of the Kaliningrad Region as part of the Russian Federation but separated from the rest of the Federation by other states. With the aim of further developing the strategic partnership between EU and Russia, the parties therefore agree to make a special effort to accommodate the concerns on both sides related to the future transit of persons and goods between the Kaliningrad Region and other parts of Russia, and to intensify their cooperation to promote the social and economic development of the region as a whole.

It’s not super detailed—maybe they ironed things out in a later deal—but it clearly states that each side will 'accommodate the concerns' of the other regarding the transit of people and goods. Apparently, that’s what they’ve been doing all these years. Now, suddenly after some decree, that's out the window.

Well, if you're fine with blockades, I guess you wouldn't have minded if Canada had decided to shut down all transit through Neum a few years ago, before they built that highway? You could have just taken a ferry, no big deal.🙂

Anyway, this is a massive aggressive move by Lithuania (whose government keeps proving how immature they are) and the EU if they actually advised this—not surprisingly, the reaction from Russia is harsh. The logic is that they're preoccupied with Ukraine, and luckily, Kaliningrad can be supplied by sea or air. Just like the Berlin blockade, really; war will likely be avoided.

As for Rogozin, I don't know why you're so obsessed with the head of Roscosmos, acting like you're living in some bubble where everything Russian is automatically a bag of salty jokes.
Try Arestovych instead—that guy acts like he's got five PhDs when he really only has one, unlike Rogozin.☕

The actual link you posted says exactly what I told you: it only covers the Facilitated Travel Document (FTD) so residents of the exclave don't have to apply for new paperwork every 90 days to pass through the Schengen Area. That applied to all types of transit—car, air, rail—but there aren't any special conditions for freight like Rogozin is rambling about, other than they consolidated two border crossings into one joint one to speed things up.
Also, if you actually read what Lithuania banned, you'll see it only applies to cargo that is under EU sanctions.

Whataboutism regarding Canada...🙄

Look, the fact that he's a customs official at NASA should imply some level of intelligence and professionalism is expected from him, rather than some idiot spreading war-mongering rhetoric and making threats about blowing up the ISS, Sarmat missiles, and all that nonsense. And no, I didn't call every single Russian a bag of candy and vodka, I was just talking about him.
He has a PhD in philosophy, so he's not an expert in international law; bringing up his doctorate is just a logical fallacy—an appeal to false authority.
And I don't know why you're bringing up Arestovych. I've never shared anything from him because the guy just talks himself into circles constantly.

Nicole James said:They don't have six or seven thousand. Let's be realistic—nuclear projectiles require constant, highly specialized, and expert maintenance to remain viable. It has become painfully obvious that the Russians can barely manage to maintain the tires on their own trucks, let alone complex weaponry. While they undoubtedly possess some functional nuclear capabilities, it isn't anywhere near the level they constantly boast about. If they actually made the decision to launch an attack against NATO, it would effectively mean the end of Russia, one way or another.

Here’s some rough data from 2021 regarding how much various countries spent on maintaining their arsenals, according to that agency that tracks global nuclear weapons.

https://assets.nationbuilder.com/ica...pdf?1655145777

USA - $44.2b
China - $11.7b
Russia - $8.6b

https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status...87883069652994

The Russian "denazifier"...