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Posts by hollowdriver13

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Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
https://mobile.twitter.com/TpyxaNews...32532080959488

It looks like all this gear is already breaking down out in the fields because nobody actually knows how to maintain it without that Western technical expertise...
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
rowdyraven112 said:It's obvious they're just jerks. ☕
If they had any actual arguments, they wouldn't have to label everyone a "Putin follower" or a "Kremlin lickspittle." They claim Russia will collapse, then ask why you don't just go work in Russia if you like Putin so much... their entire communication strategy is basically just proactive small talk with Dumb and Dumber.☕
On one hand, they scream hatred toward Putin and claim solidarity with the people of Ukraine, yet on the other, they buy Russian gas and fuel, effectively funding the aggression against Ukraine. Of course, they still buy food at the grocery store that was delivered using Russian fuel.☕

He’s over here bashing the West while he EATS food grown and produced right here in the West... honestly, is there any actual proof that specific gas comes from Russian oil, whereas you somehow know exactly which country your food came from?

And FYI, when it comes to fuel production, the industry usually prefers Sahara or Middle Eastern light crude because it doesn't need as much refining; Russian heavy crude is actually better suited for products made by companies like Dow Chemical.

Watch out you don't stare too long in the mirror—it might crack under the sheer weight of that hypocrisy.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
urbanotter said:It feels like my crystal ball gave me a fair warning about what was coming in my later years, so I took some cash and put it into "hard currency" at the bank, just so I'd have a cushion to pay for my coffee and my tech gear when things got tough.

Though, if I'm being honest, I feel like I've lost about $10,000 in purchasing power with that "hard currency."
Luckily, I picked up some "gold bullion"; people say the price is trending upward.
My daughter used a bit of credit and some savings to buy a new apartment, arguing that, much like back in the old days, the safest bet is always bricks and mortar.
My son and I are also prepping, just hoping he can finish one more stint at work and pull in a few extra thousand dollars.

In a way, I'm starting to feel better about everything; it feels like the old ways are returning, and I've somehow become an even bigger fool than I was back in the old country.

It’s funny, really. I can't stand the West, yet here I am saving in their "sinful" currency. I claim to dislike the West, but my son is out there making his living over there... 🤔

I say I hate the West, but I’m out here buying Swiss investment gold.... 🤷
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
steelfox98 said:A brilliant plan. Now you just have to figure out how to handle that massive spike in electricity demand for EA—and where on earth you'll actually find the power to generate it. 🤣

👍

There was a decent amount of "wishful thinkers" in here. People who seemed to believe that just wanting something makes it happen. It doesn't. Reality rarely cares about your desires. I learned that the hard way back when I was working in Chicago. Pure delusion.
On the other hand, anyone who finally stopped living off their parents' dime has had a rude awakening regarding how much everything costs in this country. It’s a reality check. One day you're eating free meals, the next you're staring at a grocery bill that makes you want to quit. Not fun.

It’s hardly a comfort, but this pattern is playing out across the entire European Union. On the other hand, even if the impact on Americans is significantly smaller, they shifted their stance a long time ago. For instance, they specifically carved out exceptions for fertilizer sanctions—honestly, you have to be an idiot to even implement those in the first place. They’re reportedly still pulling Russian oil, just in smaller quantities, and they just lifted the sanctions on certain Russian banks regarding energy sectors. That even includes the Federal Reserve.

Another day, another paper trail from the Treasury. Just more bureaucratic noise to sift through. It’s all just numbers on a screen until someone actually loses everything. I remember watching my old man lose his entire pension during the '08 crash because he trusted these exact types of official reports. They always seem to have an answer for everything, right up until the moment they don't. Typical.

They didn't actually lift anything regarding the 8b non-exports; in fact, 8a was tightened, and 8c was issued because the deadline for the 8b directive was expiring.

And look, the European Union hasn't actually slapped a total ban on Russian fertilizers either. Instead, they just set up quotas to "encourage" importers to start looking toward other markets.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
https://mobile.twitter.com/NeilPHaue...C9tcfsqNMqAAAA

The CIA just dropped some pretty heavy numbers: the amount of people living below the poverty line in Russia shot up by 41% back in 2022, jumping from about 12.4 million all the way to 20.9 million.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
urbanotter said:It seems you aren't actually reading the data provided in the link you shared.

EXPORTS
In 2020, the leading fertilizer exporters were Russia ($7.6 billion), China ($6.99 billion), Canada ($5.49 billion), Morocco ($3.71 billion), and the United States ($3.68 billion).

IMPORTS
In 2020, the largest fertilizer importers were Brazil ($7.82 billion), India ($6.5 billion), the United States ($5.34 billion), China ($2.62 billion), and France ($1.83 billion).

If I were trolling this much, I would have been banned from the forum ages ago.

So, I’m stepping away from this "discussion" for now.
After dealing with this level of trolling, I need to take a breather—much like a professional athlete needing recovery time after playing four games in ten days. It is genuinely difficult for me to "process" the idea that $3.68 billion is somehow larger than $7.6 billion.
The way I was taught math was a little different; clearly, I haven't kept up with whatever "new math" trends are happening lately.

The OECD doesn't let you link directly to the latest data because it's all behind a paywall, but both categories shot up; they're actually top three in both exports and imports for 2022.

Exports spiked because everyone was relying on Russian fertilizers before, and now they're frantically hunting for new suppliers, while imports surged from places like Saudi Arabia and Germany.

And honestly, you can take that "troll" accusation and shove it; I never once denied that Russia is number one in exports with China breathing down their necks. I'm just responding to that half-baked link Milko posted from our neighbor to the East, and you're just collateral damage because you jumped on it without checking the facts, simply because it fits your whole "Russia stronk!" narrative.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
urbanotter said:I really hope you have some links to back up those claims, because relying solely on someone's word🙄

and specifically what you mean by
"anything they can't manage to produce domestically is imported from Canada, which accounted for a staggering 92% of all synthetic fertilizer imports in the US back in 2021."

I mean, is reading comprehension really that much of a struggle? Because that's basically what I'm saying.

Bottom line: the USA is actually the third largest fertilizer exporter in the world.

https://oec.world/en/profile/bilater...?redirect=true

Plus, they only pull about 8% of their raw materials from Russia.

As for that famous potash that everyone claims Russia has a "monopoly" on—the US imports almost everything they can't make domestically from Canada. Though, let me tweak that slightly: in 2021, they imported about 83% of their total potash needs from Canada.

https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/20...nd-the-us.html

Countries like Brazil are feeling the squeeze because they rely on imports from Russia, but honestly, just like Germany did with their gas, they kind of brought this on themselves by tying so much of their economy to a single nation. It’s tough, but hey, that’s what happens when a leader like Bolsonaro tries to play it cool and ties the country's fate so closely to one specific industry.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
Donna Harris11 said:The Orbán vibe is creeping into America too:

Americans are quietly nudging companies to start bringing in Russian fertilizer again. It’s like, “Eh, forget the sanctions, we just need to kill this inflation!”

urbanotter said:It seems some people would really love it if🤦

Natural gas is the backbone of synthetic fertilizer production,

and without enough of that fertilizer, agricultural yields can be cut in half,

which leads to massive shortages in the food supply chain,

ultimately driving up grocery prices and leaving more families struggling to put food on the table.

Russia is the world's largest exporter of potash, which is essential for making those fertilizers.
Beyond just gas and oil, Russia also controls huge exports of wheat, corn, sunflowers, various meats, and several rare raw materials.

But what can you expect? Those who are "pro-Russia" just want to blame inflation on shortages, higher costs, and a lack of the basic inputs required for high-yield farming per acre.☕

The "informed sources" already know all that, but I’d love to hear what the "uninformed sources" have to say about it.
I suppose they think we can just go out there, spread some manure around, and expect the same bumper crops we used to get—as if that would somehow keep food prices low and stop inflation in its tracks.😉

You could have at least checked the import stats. If you did, you'd see that whatever the US can't produce itself, it pulls from Canada—which accounted for a massive 92% of US fertilizer imports back in 2021.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
urbanotter said:I wasn't aware of these American myths myself, nor do I claim to be an expert on them,

but I tend to follow the lead of those who seem to have a better grasp of how things began.😉

Protecting the Russian language has been a contentious issue in the US since its independence back in 1991. Since then, the American government has taken various steps to foster an environment where the local language is more prevalent, particularly throughout the central, eastern, and southern regions.

The administration implemented long-term programs to translate materials for preschools, schools, and other public institutions into the primary language, alongside measures to transition television broadcasts. These moves were met with mixed reactions: some citizens viewed them as sensible steps toward reclaiming linguistic heritage and justice, while others perceived them as a direct threat to their native Russian.


p.s.

it all reminds me a bit of reading about wizards, trolls, or clairvoyants.

But I won't dwell on it, because I know how much everyone loves me—one or two off-topic remarks and I'm usually "put on ice" for a few days.

Anyway, let's get back to discussing the sanctions. 😉

https://twitter.com/maria_drutska/st...76088206217222

Just an American woman from Ukraine commenting on the supposed "ban" on Russian.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
People keep pushing this constant doom & gloom narrative about the West, acting like everyone’s about to starve, but honestly, I don't see it playing out in real life at all.
I mean, look at it—even with people feeling the pinch, Americans are still blowing money on vacations, support for Ukraine remains incredibly high, and you see folks donating tens or even hundreds of thousands of dollars to help out over there. It’s not like we’re seeing massive protests in major US cities because everyone's suddenly starving or their quality of life has completely cratered.
Is a downturn coming?Yeah, definitely.But I think we're underestimating what that actually looks like. We aren't talking about total collapse; we're talking about someone deciding not to upgrade to the newest iPhone this year, or maybe cutting down from four streaming services to three. Plus, I really think people are underselling how much the Russian invasion rattled the average citizen—it shifted our whole threshold for what we're willing to tolerate.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
Brenda Murphy3 said:As if that’s even possible...

God, you people think you're such freaking geniuses...😵

You can't just walk in with some rubles and expect to snag dollars at that rate (honestly, you couldn't do it at any rate... but hey, why let facts get in the way of a good post?)

The issue isn't even about buying the Rubles; the real headache is trying to convert them back into something else later. Even if you actually find someone willing to take them off your hands, you won't be getting anywhere near the market rate.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
gentleviper62 said:That’s beside the point. What matters is how much someone in Russia can actually buy with their own money.

Honestly, just hop on YouTube and check out some Russian vloggers. After that initial ruble crash at the start, prices spiked to reflect the collapse, but once the central bank stepped in and took control of the market, those prices didn't budge. So, the average person in Russia isn't seeing any real benefit from a "strong" ruble; it's basically just helping the government's budget because of the exchange rate.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
brightheron64 said:Honestly, I don't think it's all about Russian foreign policy at all. Oil is a fundamental necessity, plain and simple. Even if Stalin himself rose from his grave, someone would still be buying Russian oil because the demand exists...

Let’s flip the perspective for a second and imagine if oil was as common as water—would any sane person even bother trading with the Saudis?
Or, looking at it another way, if Americans were "dry" on resources, much like the Germans... do you really think there would ever have been embargos against Iran, Russia, or Venezuela...?

Look, it’s not even about whether we have enough physical supply here in the States; it’s mostly about the bottom line. It comes down to how much it actually costs to pull oil out of a specific field. You aren't going to go breaking ground on some offshore project where your break-even point is $60-$70 a barrel if the market is just bouncing between $45 and $60. At these current prices, a lot of those fields finally move back into the green zone financially.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
brightheron64 said:So, the real question is, are Americans actually getting their hands on that oil, or is it all just moving between internal accounts?

Look, did I ever say they weren't getting it? Of course they are. My point is that people keep trying to spin this as some massive win for Russian foreign policy.
Honestly, Rosneft has to move that oil somewhere; you can't just stockpile it forever. It’s way easier to just sell it to a subsidiary. It would be pretty eye-opening to see what the growth percentages look like if the Russians weren't selling everything at a discount and if Rosneft didn't happen to own the refineries themselves, right?
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
brightheron64 said:Honestly, it feels like you can't trust anyone's word anymore these days...

Just a few posts back, I mentioned India (citing the BBC). According to the latest from Bloomberg, Indians are being labeled as even more "greedy" than before...

India in Talks to Increase Russian Oil Imports from Rosneft
India has bought more than 40 million barrels of Russian oil between late-February and early-May, which comes to about 20% more than flows for all of 2021, according to Bloomberg calculations based on trade data. Russian oil arrivals into India for May were at 740,000 barrels a day, up from 284,000 barrels in April and 34,000 barrels a year earlier, according to data from Kpler.

Although India’s purchases of Russian crude aren’t illegal or in breach of any sanctions, the country has come under pressure from the Biden administration and EU to stop doing business with Moscow in order to cut off Kremlin’s access to oil revenue and funds. The Asian nation has reiterated that its volume of Russian imports are minuscule as compared to Europe’s purchases, and just a tiny fraction of the country’s total consumption.

Discounted Russian oil has provided some relief to India -- which imports more than 85% of its oil -- just as inflation skyrockets alongside surging prices of everything from food to fuel. The access to cheap crude is already boosting India’s oil imports, which grew almost 16% in April from last year. The share of oil from the Eurasian region, which includes Russia, expanded to 10.6% in April versus 3.3% a year earlier, according to oil ministry data.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/india-in...neft-1.1774979

By the way, Rosneft is basically selling to itself here, since they own Nayar Energy in India, which operates some of the biggest and most modern refineries in the country.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
Richard Wilson4 said:China basically runs half of Africa these days, including all the most critical ports.

It’s the exact same playbook Russia is running across Africa. You only have to look at the Wagner Group pulling gold out of Sudan or their presence in Mali—where civilian killings have spiked by 600% since they showed up—to see what's actually happening. But people love to gloss over that because it ruins the convenient narrative that the "evil" West is the only one exploiting Africa while the Russians and Chinese are just big, peaceful humanitarian heroes.😵

If we're being honest with ourselves, we should probably admit that the Russians and Chinese are just as much—if not more—imperialistic than the West. Honestly, they might even be worse at it, mostly because they don't have to deal with any kind of public outcry or pressure to respect basic human rights.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
urbanotter said:But I suppose that's what happens when you label the Russians as uncivilized savages who just don't grasp how to behave once civilized nations slap them with sanctions.

They are apparently so "uncivilized" that they’re offloading energy supplies to India, China, and various middlemen at deep discounts, well below market value.

I guess that’s just what you expect from such wild, unpredictable actors. 🤷

🙏🙏

That is some next-level copium right there—trying to frame selling stuff at a massive discount as some kind of brilliant economic or strategic masterstroke.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
urbanotter said:But what happens when there are plenty of "uncivilized" players who are more than willing to keep the trade flowing?😉

India has taken in 34 million barrels of Russian oil at discounted rates since February. That is roughly ten times their total annual imports from Russia, and if you look at the monthly numbers, it’s actually twenty-five times higher than what they were seeing this time last year.


https://croativ.net/sankcijama-europ...1mlcP7U39yraQw

And they are paying in rubles, too.

ExxonMobil has finalized its list of European companies that refused to settle their gas bills in rubles.

We are looking at six companies across five different countries that stood their ground against the Russian demand to pay exclusively in rubles, though the vast majority of European firms and nations did ultimately go along with the new payment scheme. Since the May deadlines have already passed, it doesn't seem likely that any other European companies will back away from importing Russian gas.

Honestly, it’s actually kind of convenient that ExxonMobil is the majority owner of those Indian refineries—it’s like a perfect loop, right? You’re basically selling the oil to yourself.
I mean, I’ll admit it was probably a bit naive of the West to assume India would actually step up and enforce sanctions, but let's be real: they've been allies since back in the USSR days.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
Linda Collins3 said:I was just pointing out the logical flaw in how you define whataboutism as a fallacy.

You're just imagining the rest of the implications...

So, what's your actual definition of whataboutism then?
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
Linda Collins3 said:That definition of a "logical fallacy" is actually a logical fallacy in itself.

Look, when one side accuses the other of doing exactly what they’re doing—without even bothering to disprove the claim—it isn't a logical fallacy. It just shows they lack the moral high ground to be pointing fingers in the first place, so they don't even deserve a response.

If you're going to point the finger at me, you better have the receipts to prove I’m doing the same thing—or worse. You can't just assume I'm guilty and demand an explanation without showing your hand first.

What exactly am I supposed to refute here? The arms embargo on Libya that went through the Security Council where Russia holds a veto? If they were so problematic, why didn't they block it?
Or the delivery of weapons to Ukraine, which isn't under an embargo, so they have every right to buy them and countries can choose whether or not to charge for them?

Or the NATO intervention, which is definitely questionable from a moral standpoint but legally shares the same foundation as a UN resolution dating back to 1973?
Go ahead, tell me what legal basis Russia has for invading Ukraine.
Give it another shot and try to draw that false equivalence with "what about NATO/USA."