Posts by Megan Alvarez3

Look, I hate to be the one to say it, but today was a total disaster across the board. It wasn't just a bad day for anyone else; Lewis Hamilton, Toto Wolff, and Peter Bonnington all failed their counterparts over at Red Bull Racing in much the same way. Even when they weren't sitting on the fastest car, they actually managed to squeeze out every bit of potential they had. Honestly, it feels like Christian Horner knows he basically handed this win to Mercedes on a silver platter, and if you listen to the post-race interviews, it seems even Max Verstappen realizes he was simply outclassed by Lewis Hamilton today.

Anthony Baker84 said:Your logic is just fundamentally flawed because Kimi actually managed to close the gap by 0.2xx while Vettel somehow let the gap widen by more than 0.3xx 😬. You’re completely ignoring the driver factor here
.

It leads to one simple conclusion: Kimi would be the fastest guy out there in Germany!☕

Roger Wright94 said:I wouldn't go that far.
- That "saving" mode is actually just their standard, regular operating mode, if you ask me. And even with that, Mercedes doesn't look significantly faster than Ferrari + Red Bull. To actually secure a pit stop window, he really needed to be in "attack" mode (which shouldn't be an issue), but it looks like he'll need that just to pull off any serious overtakes. Not to mention, Lewis couldn't even manage it today because this track is just terrible for passing.

- Lewis heads to the pits immediately after Räikkönen today. He's covering the undercut. If Mercedes truly believed they were that dominant, this would have been a relaxed situation where Lewis could pit whenever he felt like it. But no, he bolts right away. Last season, they wouldn't have even broken a sweat in a situation like this. Even a rookie wouldn't have.
And today, Lewis spent half the race unable to build a gap large enough to protect himself from Räikkönen's undercut. Instead, he's forced to dive straight into the pits right behind him.

- My first impression? Mercedes hasn't made as much progress as Ferrari + Red Bull. If Mercedes is just tweaking the car, then they'll have way less room for improvement compared to Ferrari, who did a massive overhaul and still barely understands their current car. And Red Bull looks tight and dialed in; they're going to be trouble.

Of course, we'll be able to act smarter once we watch a few more races. And this track isn't exactly a benchmark anyway.
Mercedes has the edge, sure, but it’s nothing dramatic, nothing discouraging, and nothing depressing like it used to be.

Just looking at some comparisons between the 2017 and 2018 Australian Grand Prix. Mercedes improved their qualifying lap by 1.024s, while Ferrari improved by 0.628s. Back in 2017, Ferrari was trailing Mercedes by 0.268s; in 2018, it's 0.664s. Basic logic suggests that Mercedes took last year's advantage and added nearly another 0.4s to it in a single qualifying lap. I'll concede that in a normal race trim, that gap might shrink by less than 0.4s, but I am certain it isn't smaller than what we saw in 2017.

Another thing I absolutely won't overlook is that Mercedes looked perfectly fine during those first 19 laps on the Ultrasoft, a tire they used to struggle with regarding degradation. Because if we recall 2017, Lewis had to pit very early—on lap 18 with Vettel breathing down his neck—only to come out behind Max, and then Vettel pitted on lap 23 and jumped both of them. Naturally, Max hadn't pitted yet. Yesterday, he sat there with a 3–3.5 second cushion just waiting for Ferrari to make a move, which means he wasn't having any issues with degradation or how the Ultrasoft was behaving. And when things look that good on the softer tires, I guarantee you Mercedes is miles ahead of everyone else once they get onto the Soft tire.

Niki Lauda and Toto Wolff looked rightfully terrified because they let the Italians overtake them this time (even if it was thanks to a mix of circumstances and luck). But hey, that's life—a little help from Valtteri, a few mishaps, a few oversight errors on their part, but in the end, it's usually the small stuff that decides everything.

To see the true power balance, we have to wait for Barcelona, and my expectation there is that Mercedes will hold about a 0.5s advantage in qualifying.

Kyle Lopez2 said:Kimi Raikkonen is solely responsible for this stupidity; he gets one pit window around lap 20 and suddenly he's dropped to 3.5 seconds behind Lewis Hamilton. What kind of ***** undercut are you supposed to pull off when you're stuck 3.5 seconds back???

Just look at Rosberg's undercut in Australia two years ago when he nearly snatched it from both Vettel and Raikkonen. The whole trick is being right on someone's gearbox before they dive into the pits.🤔

Wait, which race were you even watching? Get this straight: in qualifying, Lewis Hamilton was over 0.6 seconds faster per lap than Kimi Raikkonen. Mercedes is leading, and Ferrari is sitting 2 or 3 seconds back. Bottas is way out of it and isn't even fighting for a podium. So, what can Ferrari actually do? They did exactly what they did—make an early move with Kimi Raikkonen and pray for some kind of incident that would open up space for Vettel later. If you had been paying attention, you would have heard the live broadcast tell Kimi Raikkonen to try and close the gap... Okay, so you think Mercedes just ignored that? No, they simply told Lewis Hamilton to push a little, to maintain that 3-second gap just in case they tried an undercut. And that is precisely what happened; Kimi Raikkonen sped up slightly (increasing his lead over Vettel), but Lewis Hamilton (in a much faster car) also pushed to ensure he had that 3+ second cushion to guarantee a safe pit stop during an undercut. Once Kimi Raikkonen pitted, Mercedes brought Lewis Hamilton in the very next lap and stayed ahead. It wasn't Kimi Raikkonen's call, and honestly, Kimi Raikkonen didn't have much of a shot at passing Lewis Hamilton unless Mercedes had some sort of disaster in the pits.

Of course an undercut is possible if you have a faster car, but today Ferrari wasn't even in the same zip code as Mercedes regarding race pace. Besides, having a superior car like Mercedes trailing behind Ferrari proved to be a massive headache; we saw the exact same pattern with Red Bull Racing trailing behind Haas F1 Team, Renault, and Ferrari.

By the way, Kimi Raikkonen's pit stop was 2.1s, fastest lap was 1:26:373, and top speed was 184 miles/h. Vettel was 2.7s, 1:26:469, and 183 miles/h. Kimi Raikkonen was the better and faster Ferrari driver today, just as he was in qualifying, but that's not everything—luck is a huge factor in this whole game. If a Haas F1 Team mechanic had messed up a wheel nut, Vettel would be standing on the third step of the podium and that’s that. Instead, things went exactly how Ferrari hoped they would.

If you take away Bottas's mess-up in qualifying and have a race without a Mercedes VSC, it's a 1-2 finish with a 10+ second gap while managing the engine. If that isn't clear to you, you just don't understand Formula 1. But that's the beauty of it—situations happen, some people profit, and others get left behind.

stormybadger8 said:Just like how Alonso, with all his nonsense, basically handed Ferrari a 1-2 finish by being just as stupid as Rosberg & Hamilton were when they screwed up the start for Ferrari... I honestly don't see any meaningful difference here. 😉

But personally, this whole Alonso situation just reminds me of what Schumacher pulled back in Singapore. 🤔

It’s the first real sign that he’s just not cut out for F1 anymore. 🤔
Are we going to start calling him AlDed, FeDeda, Deda, or what? 😬

Then again, maybe I'm wrong. Maybe Flavio Briatore recommended him just so he could snag a seat at Mercedes. 😬

Look, Ferrari earned their positions through actual driving on the track, whereas Mercedes won through SC calls, pit stops, and pure strategy. That's a massive distinction, at least from my perspective as an F1 fan. Vettel and Raikkonrn earned their way; for Mercedes, they earned it via the pit wall and the garage, while the drivers themselves didn't do much more than the absolute bare minimum required.

stormybadger8 said:If his grandmother were a man, she’d be named Duško 🤣.
God forbid we talk about whether Ferrari was this or that—what if Mercedes hadn't had such an absolutely pathetic start?

Ferrari basically threw away a victory that Mercedes practically handed them on a silver platter, but honestly, if both teams had actually performed at their actual level, they would have blown it just as badly as last year...
Because let's get real, for heaven's sake, Lewis Hamilton was faster than Nico Rosberg the entire time—noticeably so—and he only ended up behind him because his start was even worse than Rosberg's...
I mean, if Hamilton had finished the first lap in the lead, then Vettel would have been trailing Hamilton by at least 20+ seconds at the end. 😉

I wouldn't call it handed to them... It was fairly earned both at the start and on the track. If we're going to analyze that whole chaotic mess, things probably wouldn't have unfolded this way without the SC.

Ugh, you just can't let opportunities like this slip through your fingers. Honestly, Ferrari completely blew a race they had in the bag.

Yesterday, Gerhard Berger joked that Keke Rosberg's son was right at home here and that Lewis Hamilton didn't stand a chance. Honestly? He hit the nail on the head. He completely dictated the pace of the race, and the SC ensured there were zero surprises during the pit stops, so that was that.

As for Ferrari, in the last two races, I guess Kimi Räikkönen was only left behind Fernando Alonso due to pure bad luck. So, things are bound to swing back in their favor; there's no doubt about it. Today, up until the SC came out, he actually looked significantly better than Alonso—in a normal scenario, he probably would have kept Daniel Ricciardo at bay and secured a podium spot. And as for those people calling someone a "paid driver"... please. Everyone drives for a paycheck, and if we're being real, Alonso is one of the few elite drivers who moved from team to team specifically bringing Santander's money with him.

Brian Campbell36 said:What kind of expectations could one reasonably hold for Ferrari? In previous years, I would have predicted they’d be fighting just to stay in 9th or 10th place after the first corner, watching the entire race unfold from the safety of their pit boxes.

I cannot bring myself to agree that the top three were merely lucky; rather, they demonstrated a clear understanding of exactly when to hit the track to maximize their lap times under those specific conditions.

A podium sweep for Mercedes-Benz Energy Drinks

If you're that certain and think you know everything so perfectly, why don't you just put some money on it and collect the cash...

And I won't even get started on the "luck" factor. Conditions changed three times in just ten minutes... If they actually knew what they were doing, they probably would have just sat around and waited to hammer out one lap on intermediates right before the finish line.

fadedwalker18 said:Why though? It isn't like everyone else in the top ten was on slicks, right? I certainly wouldn't say so...

No, it just seemed fair to me. And honestly, I want it dry and sunny because it's blindingly obvious that Mercedes-Benz played their cards for rain. During the dry part of qualifying, they were nowhere to be found; Lewis Hamilton barely scraped into Q3 by being just 22 thousandths off. Plus, Red Bull looks worse to me on a wet track—meaning Ferrari and Lotus look better when it's dry. Personally, I'm looking for some actual tension, especially with Red Bull and Mercedes-Benz leading the pack... We've seen enough of those boring races already.

Honestly, he should have played it bold and gone with Paul di Resta. Instead, we had those three jokers just dragging themselves through another lap... I really hope tomorrow is a clear day so they can breeze past everyone like they're driving a Marussia.😁

I’m watching RAI, and honestly, they’re whining like little kids. But even now, they’ve already quieted down because they realize Kimi Raikkonen isn't the one at fault here. It’s always the same pattern: when Sebastian Vettel pushes Fernando Alonso out, they cry foul; then when Alonso pushes Kimi Raikkonen, they cry foul again. In my opinion, Alonso really messed up today. He had such a massive advantage that all he needed to do was manage the damage, but instead, he went looking for extra positions right at the start.

Raymond Anderson4 said:You’re just talking nonsense.
Did Alonso kick out Brawn, Todt, or maybe Byrne? I can't quite remember the specifics, but I guess it was one of them.

And what on earth are we supposed to do about his voice coming through the team radio?🤣
What exactly are they afraid of? Are they worried someone’s going to jump them or what...?

And what exactly are you basing that conclusion on? That entire crew had moved on from Ferrari long before Alonso even arrived there. My comment was strictly about Clark's comparison to the Ferrari era back when Schumacher was running the show.

I mean, you should really go take a look on YouTube; there's a massive amount of Alonso's team radio available from whenever he's in one of his more... let's call them "intense" moods.
I just watched this clip on YouTube, and honestly, I’m sitting here trying to wrap my head around it. It's... well, it's a lot. I guess I should probably be more composed about it, but there's just so much to unpack here, isn't there? Maybe I'm overthinking things, but I can't help but feel like we aren't seeing the full picture. It feels a bit disjointed, if you know what I mean. I mean, I suppose it could be interpreted differently, but to me, it just seems like one thing after another without any real cohesion. It's frustrating, really. I don't know. Perhaps I'm just being overly critical, but I think there's more to the story than what's being presented in this video. Just my two cents, I suppose.
And who exactly did he kick out? I mean, maybe we should be asking Chris Dyer about that... If you ask me, he’s probably just too used to overtaking people by simply radioing them in the pits, so he likely expected Smedley to just tell Petrov that Alonso was right on his tail and moving faster. 😉

Roger Wright94 said:I think you’re overreacting, both with this whole conspiracy theory thing and regarding driver favoritism.
Who exactly is blaming Massa for Ferrari's failures? Where are you even getting that from?
The biggest reason for Massin's failure—and that's a fact—is Massa himself. Period.

I guess it’s possible you might have a point (I'll give you that), but personally, I just don't buy it.
People definitely overestimate how much Ferrari caters to Alonso. Sure, certain things are probably tilted in his direction (it would be incredibly stupid if they weren't), but it's nowhere near as extreme as you're making it out to be.
The only true absolute ruler of the universe at Ferrari (and beyond) was Michael Schumacher. That kind of dominance is unrepeatable.
Alonso has the momentum, but he still needs to deliver results.
On the other hand, Vettel is looking really promising.

I could just write "Fernando is faster than you..." and remind you of the 2007 season with McLaren.

As for everything else, where exactly did I say that Massa is responsible for Alonso's or Ferrari's results? When I said "blaming Massa for anything" is just cosmetic, I meant it doesn't change the reality of Ferrari's and Alonso's poor standing. What I was actually referring to was your comment about the "damage" Massa causes within the context of the team.

Fernando Alonso is an absolute God within this team. If you take a quick look at who was running Ferrari during the Schumacher era (Brawn, Todt, Byrne, Martinelli) versus who is there today... well, you only need to listen to the tone of voice on the team radio to realize exactly where everyone stands in the hierarchy. Alonso is untouchable; the only person who could even attempt to push back against him is Montezemolo.

Roger Wright94 said:Look, I’m not trying to derail the conversation here. I am not talking about making excuses for the results (I'm really not). I am discussing potential scenarios for improvement.
The car absolutely needs to be upgraded to make it actually competitive against Red Bull.
Alonso is a total home run, and I am convinced that nobody else in his position would have achieved better results—not last year, and certainly not this year. That is just my opinion.

Mass must (or should have) had the best, or at least an equal, car on the grid to actually accomplish anything. So, what good is a driver like him to me?
I like him personally, I really do, but this string of poor results is just getting way too long, and frankly, he has crossed my threshold of tolerance. This business is far too expensive to put up with this kind of stuff indefinitely.

That is rational, managerial thinking. Fine, it holds water.
Personally, I would much prefer a more balanced lineup where the drivers are actually competing against one another (meaning, a driver who could actually stay close to Alonso). Racing is a sport where the absolute best doesn't always win. It’s rare that it isn't influenced by a massive chain of external circumstances, both on the track and off.
And that brings me to why I feel so bad about Massa. I simply cannot see any scenario or set of circumstances where he capitalizes on an opportunity to, say, take a win. In fact, the opposite always happens. No matter how you slice it, he constantly messes up and loses. It happens way too often. Treating him any differently would just be pure pessimism.
How does Button ever manage to win a race?

If Massa stays on through 2012, then it will be solely because that is what Alonso wants. I wouldn't be happy about it, but honestly, he deserves that kind of (royal) treatment.

It isn't a diversion from the topic. Ferrari's ambitions and Alonso's goals are no secret: anything short of a championship is a failure, and being out of the title fight entirely is nothing short of a disaster.

By choosing Alonso, Ferrari entered this vicious cycle because they subordinated everything to him. The team allowed the driver's interests to become almost synonymous with the team's own interests. In that light, blaming Massa for anything is nothing more than a pathetic excuse for the failures of Alonso and Ferrari.

Regarding Ferrari's second driver... I think it's pretty obvious that by signing Alonso, Ferrari has essentially tied their own hands when it comes to picking anyone else. So, I wouldn't say Massa will stay just because Alonso wants him to; rather, it's more likely he'll stay because Alonso won't accept just anyone else in that seat. There is a huge difference there.

Roger Wright94 said:I’ve been talking about letting Matt Damon go for ages now, and my mind is made up. As time ticks by, the damage just keeps mounting.
Felipe is a decent guy, I guess, but he’s just way too underwhelming for a seat like that.

With the kind of cash Ferrari is throwing at their other driver, they could practically sign anyone. Honestly, the only people completely off the table are maybe a handful of the absolute elite.
What we still don't know, though—and this is the big question—is what those driver contracts actually look like, what they permit, what protections they have in place...

Look, we can sit here all day debating the "damage," but let's face it: Ferrari isn't even in the conversation for the championship right now, whether you're looking at the drivers' standings or the constructors'. Even if they somehow managed to land two Lewis Hamiltons, nothing would change; they’d still be stuck as a third-tier outfit, scraping by in 5th or 6th place.

So, this "damage" you're bringing up? It's purely cosmetic. It's an image problem that doesn't actually move the needle for Ferrari or for Alonso. I mean, come on—if you sign a driver you claim is the best in the world, yet you're simultaneously paying tens of millions to someone who won you championships but isn't even driving... I really don't think Ferrari has any ground to stand on when it comes to complaining about driver issues. They got exactly what they paid for.

My prediction? By the end of the season, Stefano Domenicali is out, and I wouldn't be surprised if Matt Damon sticks around through 2012. It works for Ford because the USA is such a vital market for them, and it works for Alonso because he gets to be the undisputed boss of the garage. The only way I see Matt Damon leaving is if Ferrari decides they have a real shot at signing a rookie with actual world champion potential.

It’s honestly adorable how Christian Horner keeps acting all brave, claiming that banning certain engine maps and exhaust diffusers will finally show us whether they actually belong on the same level as Red Bull. As if the guys over at Red Bull have just been taking a three-month nap and haven't developed a single new thing.
From what I’ve gathered about Goodyear prepping the medium and soft compounds, it looks like we're in for some serious tire degradation. Toss in the fact that there's a pretty decent chance of an SC, and I’m expecting a really entertaining race where Jenson Button might just pull off another great result again.

I certainly have no intention of throwing in the towel regarding the championship title after only five races. Even though the points gap in the standings looks massive right now, anything can happen in this league—I'm absolutely certain of it.

Alright Fernando, Vitally Petrov is standing by if you end up needing a backup!😁

swiftjackal3 said:They’ve got Alonso, right? Honestly, he’s easily the best driver on the starting grid right now. But man, Ferrari is really missing a top-tier engineer. Instead, they’re stuck with these guys who just don't get it. You look at a team like Lotus—they’re actually making progress race after race! Meanwhile, these guys over in Italy? They’re full throttle going in the wrong direction. It's like they're driving straight into a thick fog and can't find their way back to clarity. What are they even doing?

Look, Alonso is brilliant when everything clicks, when the car is dialed in and he’s in total control of the situation. But unfortunately, I guess when things go sideways and he has to fight, he isn't quite as dominant. The real issue at Ferrari is Domenicali. He’s just a damn economist—a textbook manager who lacks any actual technical expertise. He simply doesn't understand the nuances of motorsports enough to be running an elite team like this.
Maybe when the big boss finally realizes by the end of this season that having an Italian lead at Ferrari isn't a winning strategy, they'll bring in someone from the outside who actually knows how to organize a crew.
I mean, watching Webber today... he's barely even trying!

Amanda Kelly said:I can totally see why everyone is venting right now, especially over in the McLaren camp.

Like you said, McLaren is leading in basically every category, yet you've suddenly dropped to having only the third-fastest car. That's a weird way for things to turn out.
Now that Ferrari pulled off that 1-2 finish, McLaren is suddenly sitting there with just one decent car for the whole championship.
But when you guys were dominating with those 1-2 finishes, you were bragging about that exact same car.
And all this time, you've been constant critics of Ferrari's tech, their organization, and everything else.

Now that you actually have nothing but the third-best car, it’s no wonder you're all spiraling.
One thing people are glossing over here is how much ground Ferrari gained today.

Alonso ended up finishing 25 seconds ahead of Hamilton. If he hadn't been held up, it probably would've been another 10 seconds on top of that.
Being 35-40 seconds ahead over 67 laps means they were faster by more than half a second per lap. That’s huge. Honestly, I’d be worried too.

I think the real issue here is simply how much each specific track suits a particular chassis. Because of that, the advantage is going to shift back and forth between teams. A lot of it will also depend on when each team decides to roll out their new technical package and how effectively those upgrades actually perform.

It feels to me like McLaren has two much more consistent drivers, though I'm not sure how much more Massa will actually be in a position to assist Alonso. Perhaps we might see more helpful contributions from Bridgestone and their tire choices for individual races.😉