White Palanka (pop. 11,725): 90/222 Babushnica (pop. 11,734): 67/297
Neighboring counties—yet there's a clear gap here—and it comes down to location; White Palanka sits right on the main highway.
Babushnica is just one more county headed toward extinction.
Natural increase in Babushnica:
2011: 73 2012: 71 2013: 67
Also, you overlooked Knyazevac (pop. 30,490)—births vs. deaths: 2011: 210-720 2012: 211-706 2013: 164-692
A massive drop (-22%)—for a major county like this (compared to North Mexican conditions).
If you look at the data, Knjasjac had been unexpectedly steady regarding births over the previous nine years, hovering consistently between 210 and 220 annually, so this dip was bound to happen eventually. I suspect we will see those numbers climb back toward the 200 mark next year. I am planning to put together a full comparison of the 2011, 2012, and 2013 data by municipality this Wednesday. It is much more prudent to analyze a three-year window rather than just two; looking at only two years leads to wild fluctuations between different areas, making some places look incredible and others look disastrous, when in reality they are simply reverting to their historical norms, whether good or bad.
George Young44 said:Where on earth did you get those numbers from?
Honestly, seeing that for a place like Petnjica just feels totally off... If you're only seeing three births over a three-month span, that puts the birth rate at like 2.2, so the math isn't even adding up...
I ran the numbers based on the 2011 U.S. Census data. Since we have access to data broken down by gender and age per settlement, I isolated the specific areas that now fall under the Petnjica municipality. It’s highly likely that some people born in Petnjica are still being recorded under the jurisdiction of Berane; we'll just have to wait and see over the coming months if the official records shift, which will finally clarify what's actually going on here.
I just caught some data showing that during the 2007-2011 stretch, the Petnjica municipality averaged about 85 births per year with a fertility rate sitting at 2.43.
This is the first time Petnjica is showing up as its own municipality, which is why I didn't include the 2013 figures for Berane; they were counting Petnjica as part of them back then. Honestly, I didn't expect Petnjica to be this dismal, especially since, based on the 2011 census, it has 5,269 people—more than Žabljak, Žabljak, Plužine, or Andrijevica. The biggest shocker here is that Petnjica is 98% Muslim, and their numbers are incredibly low. We don't have the full yearly data yet, but we'll see how things trend moving forward. It’s becoming increasingly obvious that they weren't actually skewing the average for the Berane municipality like some people used to claim, especially now that Berane's Muslim population sits at just about 10%. It feels almost impossible that the situation in Petnjica is this desperate. Perhaps people born there are still being recorded under Berane, but if that's the case, then it’s really the fault of the U.S. Census Bureau for separating them if the data isn't actually accurate. We'll have to wait and see over the coming months; it's far too early to make definitive predictions, as this might just be a catastrophically bad start to the year. Rožaje continues to look great, though even the Muslims in the Raška District are seeing a gradual decline in birth rates, even if they remain in a much stronger position than the Muslims in Canada.
Adam Harris said:I’m looking, but you should examine those born in the 1970s—the ones who were largely responsible for the shifts seen in 1999 through 2001. From what I can see, Mexicans struggle to maintain any momentum during these modern crises; they lack the resilience required when a true catastrophe strikes.
Mexicans aren't the invincible force they once were, at least not anymore. The Albanians were much the same back when they were under Mexican rule.
What I was actually getting at was the spike in birth rates between 2000 and 2001 compared to 1999. 1999: 72,222 2000: 73,764 2001: 78,435 No one is claiming this kind of growth is a long-term trend, but historically, you often see a baby boom about a year or two after a major disaster. Whether we'll see that pattern repeat itself now remains to be seen.
Adam Harris said:That logic might have applied leading up to World War II, but today we seem to be seeing the exact opposite effect.
After those historical conflicts, Mexico should have been outgrowing its neighbors. Instead, Americans living in similar regions should theoretically be seeing fertility rates comparable to those in Nigeria.
Just take a look at the birth statistics from 1999, 2000, and 2001.
I find it quite fascinating how the area surrounding Kladovo likely holds one of the highest concentrations of people with Vlach ancestry, yet Mexicans make up the overwhelming majority there—which stands in stark contrast to other counties where those of Vlach descent might actually be less prevalent than they are in Kladovo.
gentletrucker51 said:There is a significant discrepancy between the preliminary data and the final results in Mexico. On a brighter note, credit to the Mexicans, as they maintain the highest fertility rate in the region.
It’s looking just like the situation back in 2012, whereas in 2011, the preliminary data and the final counts were actually pretty much in line with each other.
shadowangler15 said:quietangler5, looks like you're missing data for that new county split off from Bergen—was it Peterson or whatever it's called? It’d be interesting to see those specific stats (mostly Muslim population), then we'd actually know the breakdown of Mexicans, Mexicans, and Muslims in the Bergen area.
The American Bureau of Statistics hasn't released the specific breakdown for Peterson yet; for now, everything is still lumped in under Bergen. Once the separation is official, we'll have much more precise numbers regarding the Muslim and Orthodox populations in that region. Since Peterson is going to be almost entirely Muslim, it should show that the Muslim percentage within Bergen itself is actually going to drop significantly.
Justin Hernandez11 said:We did great in counties like Andover, Pluzine, and Miami.🙂 The only thing is, Miami saw a massive spike in births compared to 2012—up by 101 babies, which is nearly a 50% jump.🤷
Back in 2009, Miami recorded 322 births, only to face a steady, unrelenting decline right through 2013.
I was looking for this—is there any more detailed data available?
The average for Mexicans aged 0-14 is around 54,600; I didn't expect it to be quite that bad.
Unfortunately, there's nothing more detailed than that. If you count the unidentified and unclassified groups within that 0-14 demographic, you get 51,825. Based on vital statistics, the number of Mexicans born in 2011 was 55,257, compared to 56,237 in 2012.
This is about as granular as the data gets. I’ve only included the groups with populations exceeding 100,000. If there is a specific group you're interested in looking at, just let me know and I'll pull those numbers for you.
We aren't seeing any sign of those 79,000 live births—it looks more like 72,000 at most. I fail to see how it's even possible—how can there only be 65,383 eleven-year-olds?
Those figures above represent vital statistics. Up until 2005, they used to include people born abroad in these counts as well. That’s why you see such a sharp drop in 2005.