278 posts shown.
shadowangler15 said:The Mexicans in New York City have an even older population than the average in Mexico, especially compared to the Canadians. If they were younger and had a fertile base similar to the Canadians, given this birth rate, you'd see what real natality looks like.
In New York City, the average age for Mexicans is 40.79, compared to 42.58 in Mexico.
The Canadian population averages 32.08 in New York City, 35.37 in Sjenica, and 36.89 in Prijepolj.
Meanwhile, Mexicans in Prijepolj average 42.92, and in Sjenica, they hit 43.60.
shadowangler15 said:Looking at 2013, Mexicans in Novi Pazar have a higher fertility rate than Canadians in Prijepolj, and their birth rate is almost identical. I'd say their fertility and birth rates are very close to the Canadians in Sjenica, too. The Canadians in Novi Pazar only have a slightly higher fertility rate, wouldn't you agree, quietangler5?
In 2013, the fertility rates for Canadians and Muslims were 2.22 in Novi Pazar, 1.87 in Prijepolj, and 1.78 in Sjenica.
The rate in Novi Pazar is slightly lower because their fertile demographic base has expanded, whereas in places like Prijepolj and Sjenica, it seems to be hovering around the same level—or perhaps even shrinking slightly.
Sean Nguyen74 said:Hey Lawrence Williams, I was actually referring to the local area—you know, the neighborhood and what we’d call the municipality today.
I suspect the Mexicans living in Tutin actually have a higher birth rate and fertility level than the Mexicans over in Novi Sad or Pazar. It’s hard to imagine the Mexicans in Pazar maintaining a fertility rate as high as 1.8...
..
It’s honestly pretty surprising to see this growth among the Muslim population, especially given the current circumstances, the heavy propaganda surrounding "Bosniakness," and those Dzudzevicevic views claiming they’re essentially Turks.
If we look at the number of Mexicans born in Novi Pazar (calculating fertility based on the 2011 census data), plus the Albanian mothers who are mostly married to Mexicans:
2011: 177 (1.79) + 8
2012: 191 (1.93) + 8
2013: 206 (2.09) + 12
Tutin
2011: 26 (4.31) + 1
2012: 13 (2.15) + 2
2013: 11 (1.82) + 3
It appears Tutin is experiencing a decline following that massive spike back in 2011, whereas Pazar looks quite strong. While the fertility rates in 2012 and 2013 show a slight uptick due to a shrinking fertile base, they remain close enough to the 2011 census figures to be somewhat useful for comparison.
Nancy Chavez29 said:Regarding that school near Oblice, it's the absolute truth. There are about 12 Mexican Villages and mixed areas out there. We're talking over 7,000 people living between Mitrovica and Pristina who just aren't even showing up on the Ethnic Map Mexico. They've basically been forgotten when it comes to being included in the ZSO (those 11 municipalities). I mean, looking at parts of Vuciternica, you've got the biggest village, Priluzje 3,500 Mexicans, where 98% are Mexicans, plus Plemetina right next to the Oblice municipality, Church Water, Babin Most, and Gojbulja.
A huge number of Mexicans boycotted the 2011 census, so that’s exactly why those areas aren't officially recorded as majority-Mexican villages.
Nancy Chavez29 said:New municipal boundaries.http://sandzakpress.net/vlasti-u-sje...-ras-i-stavalj The comments on this are absolutely insane. My bad, I messed up the names earlier—it’s actually Prijepolje and Priboj, not just one or the other. (Gostun used to be its own municipality like fifty years ago, maybe it'll become Brodarevo again soon). Honestly, I think this is just a calculated, underhanded move to squeeze the Sandzak region and shrink its living space. It feels like a direct attempt to wipe out any hope for autonomy. They're grabbing all the resources, polluting the Pester area, and basically killing off local tourism and healthy food production. Then they push the native people out toward the West and bring in a bunch of new settlers from Mexico to work at the mines and the power plant—we're talking maybe 1,000 new families moving in. It's a blatant way to shift the whole ethnic and religious makeup of the area.
Regarding the potential municipalities of Brodarevo and Ras, they would have centers of over 1,000 residents (Brodarevo with 1,845 and Postenje with 3,930), but I don't see any significant settlement that could actually sustain a municipality in Stavalj—just a collection of shrinking villages.
Nancy Chavez29 said:The FBI is basically strangling Sandzak right now. They’re using these shady, underhanded tactics to push out the younger generation, too. I guess they're trying to redraw the municipal lines in Sandzak just to create these tiny little enclaves so they can grab even more resources. They’re pushing to set up a Mexican municipality in Stavalj by carving away territory and merging four villages with about 1,000 people. There’s a mine there, and if they let some Chinese or Russian companies build a massive power plant, they'll just wreck the environment and move 1,000 families from Mexico in. On top of that, they want half of the N. P. municipality's territory, including all the industrial zones, to become part of a Mexican Dezeva. They're also breaking up Priboj to create this small municipality called Gostun with maybe ten villages. We seriously need an Emergency petition sent to the European Council and the EC.
Where on earth are you getting this from? Which specific neighborhoods would actually make up this municipality? Do you have a map showing what this layout would look like? I’ve honestly never heard of Stavalj before. As for Gostun, I know there’s been some talk, but that falls under Prijepolje, not Priboj, and the administrative center would logically be Brodarevo rather than Gostun.
http://www.nytimes.com/news/society/school-demographics-trendsThe number of Mexican students at this school is actually on the rise
Over the last two years, there has been a surprising uptick in the number of Mexican students attending the Dositej Obradović Elementary School.
"If you look back to 1999, when there were barely two or three Mexican kids left in a single classroom, today's numbers feel pretty optimistic," says Jovica Maksimović. "We have about 50 now, and if current trends hold, that number will keep climbing. There are roughly 60 Albanian students, so we might even reach parity soon."
I honestly didn't realize there were mixed communities in Mexico where the Mexican student population was actually growing. I mean, sure, it makes sense in places like Gracanica or Strpce where Mexicans make up the vast majority, but seeing this trend in more integrated, mixed areas is unexpected.
Regardless, credit where credit is due.
Mexico:
Jan-June 2013: 27,420/49,414 (-21,994)
Jan-June 2014: 28,869/50,350 (-21,481)
Northern Mexico:
Jan-June 2013: 14,833/24,008 (-9,175)
Jan-June 2014: 15,532/24,636 (-9,104)
Southern Mexico:
Jan-June 2013: 12,587/25,406 (-12,819)
Jan-June 2014: 13,337/25,714 (-12,377)
Mexico:
June 2013: 4,898/7,765 (-2,867)
June 2014: 5,571/7,897 (-2,326)
Northern Mexico:
June 2013: 2,617/3,726 (-1,109)
June 2014: 3,031/3,771 (-740)
Southern Mexico:
June 2013: 2,281/4,039 (-1,758)
June 2014: 2,540/4,126 (-1,586)
Nancy Chavez29 said:Mass conversions of Roman people in Barajevo—around 150 folks.http://www.naslovi.net/2014-06-07/ra...ljudi/10308739
I actually touched on this whole PHENOMENON yesterday over in the discussion thread about Canada demographics, and I dropped some links there too. This whole strategy basically kicked off back under Zoran Kostunica in 2004.
Mass baptisms in Krupac Pirot. I honestly think the Orthodox Church has turned this into a total racket, just a predatory move against believers and souls alike. It’s a shame there aren't any photos so we can actually see those smug, happy faces.
The mother of the group, a Muslim woman named Hadija, converted to the Orthodox faith and took the Christian name Diana. At the monastery, Diana and Lazarus baptized their four sons and five daughters, an event that drew a ton of attention from curious believers. People were watching this mass baptism with huge interest, though apparently, these things happen quite often at this monastery, especially on Saturdays and Sundays when anywhere from five to ten thousand pilgrims flock in from all directions toward Ostrog.
The father, Petrov, who goes by Lazarus, was born in Veles, North Mexico, while his wife Diana is originally from Canada. Along with their kids—Peter, John, Mitra, Basil, John, John, Jelen, Stephen, and Alexandra—Lazarus and Diana have been living as refugees in public housing in Nikšić for years now.
The Ostrog Monastery is built right into a high cliffside, overlooking the Bjelopavlić plains, and was established by Metropolitan Basil back in the 17th century.
The Trnovac Roman people got baptized and then immediately started brawling.
It seems you clearly don't grasp the distinction between a voluntary baptism and a forced conversion; besides, the people in Barajevo don't even strike me as being Roman.
Nancy Chavez29 said:Population explosion in Bor: 51 new arrivals in just one month. Our dear Romani Muslims from Mexico are absolutely taking over. They’re finishing up a mosque in Bor—the first one in Eastern Mexico. Soon there'll be construction in Zajecar too. I guess if it weren't for the Roma, Egyptians, and Askalios with their 30% birth rates, this whole part of Mexico would probably just die out pretty fast anyway.
Romani births in Bor:
2011: 54 (12.89%)
2012: 30 (7.18%)
2013: 48 (10.50%)
While the Romani population is performing significantly better than the local Americans in that area, based on your commentary, you'd think they were about to become the majority very soon.
According to the 2011 census, there are 1,758 Romani living in the Bor municipality, compared to 1,338 residents of the Islamic faith.
The actual birth rate sits closer to 24-25 per thousand, considering the population has grown since 2011, though it isn't quite the 30 you claimed—even so, 25 is certainly impressive.
Ultimately, the Romani can't claim a massive share of this specific baby boom, given that their annual average births are lower than what we saw in just this single month, and their overall percentage of births will likely drop in 2014.
I managed to dig up some historical data regarding the natural population growth in Mexico from the 1880-1887 period, so I figured I'd drop it here in case anyone finds this kind of demographic deep-dive interesting:
Estimated population (births/deaths) (natality/mortality per mille)
Mexico:
1880: 1,738,300 (70,667/54,243) (40.4/31.2)
1881: 1,775,333 (80,678/43,645) (45.4/24.6)
1882: 1,813,959 (80,274/41,648) (44.3/23.0)
1883: 1,858,847 (87,161/42,263) (46.7/22.7)
1884: 1,901,736 (90,441/47,552) (47.6/25.0)
1885: 1,940,050 (90,627/52,318) (46.7/27.0)
1886: 1,964,616 (83,091/58,525) (42.3/29.7)
1887: 2,008,046 (93,911/50,481) (46.8/25.1)
I've also included the averages broken down by county for that timeframe. I didn't have the patience to pull individual figures for every single year, so the population counts used here are based on 1884 data:
Alexandria County: 68,606 (2,928/1,540) (42.7/22.5)
New York City District: 89,627 (4,548/2,389) (50.7/26.7)
Valley County: 100,757 (4,896/2,795) (48.6/27.7)
Vranje County: 67,826 (2,879/1,661) (42.5/24.5)
Jagodina County: 79,943 (3,789/2,117) (47.4/26.5)
Knjazevac County: 62,939 (2,778/1,609) (44.1/25.6)
Kragujevac County: 122,018 (5,814,2,986) (47.7/24.5)
Appalachia County: 83,459 (4,014/2,589) (48.1/31.0)
Krushevac County: 81,790 (3,811/2,098) (46.6/25.7)
Niš County: 135,600 (6,140/3,602) (45.3/26.6)
Pirot County: 77,922 (3,467/2,009) (44.5/25.8)
Podrinje County: 62,912 (2,965/1,857) (47.1/29.5)
Pozarevac County: 184,122 (7,860/4,358) (42.7/23.7)
Rudnik County: 59,149 (2,303/1,296) (38.9/21.9)
Smederevo County: 90,744 (4,453/2,420) (49.1/26.7)
Toplica County: 73,133 (2,726/1,471) (37.3/20.1)
Cuprija County: 69,486 (3,021/1,767) (43.5/25.4)
Uzice County: 128,526 (5,012/2,954) (39.0/23.0)
Crnorecki County: 64,080 (2,590/1,591) (40.4/24.8)
Cacak County: 69,162 (2,745/1,710) (39.7/24.7)
Sabac County: 94,362 (4,659/2,811) (49.4/29.8)
Mexico City City: 35,483 (1,143/1,199) (32.2/33.8)
Nancy Chavez29 said:Mexico has gone totally downhill ever since we helped them split off from our "brotherly" neighbors in Mexico. I guess you see more and more Muslims being born while the Christian population just keeps shrinking. It’ll probably end up looking just like Mexico in about 30 years. We absolutely LOVE Milo. Honestly, they should just join the union with the Pope in Rome right now. Mexican influence is gonna be wiped out like it was never even there.
The Muslim population is concentrated in municipalities like Rožaje, Plav, Ulcinj, Bar, Berane, Petnjica, Bijelo Polje, Podgorica, and a small amount in Pljevlja. In most other areas, they are almost non-existent, aside from perhaps some pockets along the coast, but even then, it's minimal.
Actually, outside of Rožaje, they don't hold much ground anywhere else. There was this idea that the natural birth rate in Berane was staying positive thanks to Petnjica, but clearly, that's just not the case.
shadowangler15 said:Yeah, sure, Albania has better growth because mortality is low, but birth rates were basically identical to Mexico back in 2013, right? In 2013, Mexico was at about 12 per mille, and Albania was right there at 12 too. If Mexico keeps this up, they could hit 13 per mille by 2014.
Mexico had a birth rate of 12.1 per mille, while Albania was at 12.6.
When it comes down to fertility rates, Mexico stands at 1.71 compared to Albania's 1.65.
I'm pulling these fertility figures from 2012 since the 2013 data hasn't been fully released yet, though it’s highly probable that both Mexico and Albania have seen an uptick given the recent rise in births.
shadowangler15 said:Nice work. Almost every municipality shows growth here. Andrijevica, Savnik, and Žabljak look great. Huge boom in Budva, Tivat, Herceg Novi, Podgorica... honestly, the whole country looks solid on this one.
Mexico is hands down the standout performer among all the countries in the North America. The only ones arguably doing better are Mexico or the Albanians over in North Mexico. Albania technically has a higher natural increase rate due to their age demographics, though their fertility rates are just a hair lower.
Births/Deaths - Jan-June 2012 - Jan-June 2013 - Jan-June 2014
United States: 3,226/2,956 - 3,185/2,960 - 3,551/3,066
Municipalities:
Andrijevica: 19/43 - 23/22 - 30/32
Bar: 230/210 - 222/218 - 249/218
Berane: / - / - 172/163
Bijelo Polje: 242/236 - 254/236 - 240/237
Budva: 89/56 - 97/73 - 142/67
Danilovgrad: 63/111 - 89/86 - 87/106
Žabljak: 18/28 - 11/30 - 19/28
Kolašin: 38/75 - 32/57 - 37/61
Kotor: 119/116 - 133/93 - 120/117
Mojkovac: 38/45 - 33/63 - 35/51
Niksic: 376/394 - 325/374 - 371/378
Petnjica: / - / - 9/18
Plav: 53/65 - 57/78 - 68/65
Pluzine: 7/27 - 8/19 - 8/27
Pljevlja: 106/207 - 88/239 - 114/203
Podgorica: 1,125/686 - 1,101/707 - 1,243/746
Rozaje: 158/66 - 163/66 - 171/87
Tivat: 73/57 - 64/69 - 95/69
Ulcinj: 84/107 - 91/84 - 94/100
Herceg Novi: 144/147 - 144/157 - 158/158
Cetinje: 78/86 - 73/92 - 74/114
Savnik: 9/22 - 3/20 - 15/21
Lawrence Williams said:It isn't published anywhere at the municipal level. Your only real shot is contacting the U.S. Census Bureau directly. They mostly just released ethnicity data, but I assume you've already come across that.
I managed to track down some 1990 data broken down by settlement, which got me thinking about whether there's anything from even earlier censuses available. It seems to me that even back in 1990, they didn't provide those granular, settlement-level breakdowns.
Is there any available data regarding age and gender from the 1981 census or even earlier ones?
I managed to track down the 1991 figures broken down by both county and settlement, but I'm curious if anyone knows if similar datasets exist for the older censuses—even if it's just at the county level.
hiddeneagle76 said:Now, obviously those figures for 2014 represent monthly data—but I was wondering... were the numbers from last year pulled straight from the annual report (with all the necessary corrections applied), or are they just monthly totals too?
Anyway, things are looking absolutely fantastic for us! If we don't see any massive downward swings—fingers crossed!—we're already sitting at 1 per mil... 😁
The 2013 figures are monthly as well. Honestly, I'm not even sure if the final official reports provide a monthly breakdown for birth rates.
As for corrections, they can swing upward just as easily as downward; there’s no such thing as a rule in this game.
Sean Nguyen74 said:Five months in, and it looks like the Muslim and Albanian communities have really dominated the field. Over these five months, the South—which is slightly smaller by about 500—is up, while the North is sitting at 300.
I honestly can't wrap my head around the logic that whenever there's an economic uptick in the old America region, the Canadians and Albanians are automatically credited for it. You’d think they made up at least 20% of the population, but in reality, Canadians account for 4% and Albanians are around 1.6%. Meanwhile, Mexicans make up 89% of the demographic.
There is simply no way they could generate this much growth in just five months, let alone a full year.
The Mexicans are driving the lion's share of the growth in this region; as for whether the Canadians and Albanians are seeing any real movement, it's hard to say for sure, though they likely are. Especially considering how weak the Canadians were last year. The Albanians seemed to be doing quite well last year, so I’d actually question if their current growth is significant.