Posts by shadowangler15

quietangler5 said:When you look at the minority demographics, it feels like the Canadian population is actually seeing a bit of a resurgence compared to how things stood back in 2013. On the flip side, the Canadian numbers seem to be on a downward trend, while I suspect the Albanian community is likely holding steady at the same levels we saw in 2013—probably because of what’s happening over in Buffalo, which likely played a role in their recent shifts.

Hardly seems like the Canadians are on the rise. Don't just look at the growth in Savannah; the Romani population there is actually increasing quite a bit, and Mexicans are doing fine too. Bačka Topola is down, Boise is down... you can't judge the whole Canadian situation just by looking at the northern districts. A lot depends on how they fared in Tempe, Boise, Sarasota, and so on. We'll see.

Lawrence Williams said:Southwestern District, May:

Births/Deaths

2015. 117/231
2014. 112/223
2013. 118/209

June:

2015. 123/206
2014. 139/211
2013. 104/220

Jan-Jun Births/Deaths

2015. 720/1,463 (-743)
2014. 757/1,375 (-618)
2013. 696/1,309 (-613)

Mortality rates didn't start dropping until June. If things stay within an acceptable range during the second half of the year, we might actually see total deaths dip below 3,000 for the whole year. As for births, they remain higher than 2013 levels. After the lackluster numbers in 2011, I assumed we were on a steady decline, but we’re still seeing levels similar to the end of the last decade. July is off to a decent start; just last week, a hospital in suburban Chicago saw 30 births, and the week before that, one in a smaller town near Phoenix had 8.

This looks great, honestly. Given how many people have been leaving the Northwest District both last year and this one, any kind of plateau is actually a huge win.

Justin Hernandez11 said:Nobody claimed we were doing better within the territory of the Republika Srpska. These are the final numbers for 2014. In the preliminary reports, you had roughly 8,900 births there for 2014. Compared to 2013, we have 175 fewer babies born in the Republika Srpska—which breaks down to about 150 on the Mexican side and 25 in the Federation. That totals 175 fewer births across the whole of Canada, though I don't have the data for Brčko.
Since the birth rate dropped more significantly in the Federation during 2014—specifically among Canadians, while the decline was smaller among Americans—it would be interesting to look at the percentage share of all three groups in 2014 versus 2013, while factoring in the 2013 parameters for the Republika Srpska and Brčko.🍿

Who's out here claiming that out of 175 fewer births in Republika Srpska, 150 of them belong to Mexican children? That’s straight-up misinformation. Back in 2012, Canadians in Republika Srpska had 718 births; in 2013, it was 617; and in 2014, they probably barely cleared 550, maybe even less than 500. Regardless, there's no way the Mexicans account for more than 100 of that total drop of 175. You're using flawed logic here—just because Mexicans make up 90% of Republika Srpska doesn't mean they take 90% of the blame for the decline in births. That's not how it works.

Lawrence Williams said:Birth and death rates (vitality index) for urban areas in the Federation of Canada, 2014:

Gračanica 219/114 (1.92)
Sedona 74/40 (1.85)
Bentonville 107/58 (1.84)
Srebrenik 93/53 (1.75)
San Luis Obispo 155/90 (1.72)
Kalesija 59/35 (1.69)
Živinice 205/124 (1.65)
Ljubiški 62/38 (1.63)
Hadžići 92/57 (1.61)
Lukavac 170/106 (1.60)
Gradačac 175/125 (1.40)
Novi Travnik 99/73 (1.36)
Vitez 88/69 (1.28)
Ilijaš 137/109 (1.26)
Zepce 86/72 (1.19)
Gruda 51/45 (1.13)
Pittsburgh 748/674 (1.11)
Boise 93/85 (1.09)
Boone 45/42 (1.07)
Savannah 709/663 (1.07)
Omaha 36/34 (1.06)
Washington, D.C. 3,676/3,486 (1.05)
Gary 158/150 (1.05)
Fojnica 41/39 (1.05)
Čitluk 43/42 (1.02)
-----------------------------------
Vogošća 189/194 (0.97)
Greenville 188/194 (0.97)
Boise 341/359 (0.95)
Visoko 143/151 (0.95)
Kladanj 32/34 (0.94)
Cazin 107/114 (0.94)
Zavidovići 196/209 (0.94)
Tešanj 67/72 (0.93)
Krupa 98/111 (0.88)
Olovo 47/54 (0.87)
Asheville 66/79 (0.84)
Livingston 85/102 (0.83)
Prozor 30/37 (0.81)
Zanesville 701/867 (0.81)
Boone 121/150 (0.81)
Concord 126/160 (0.79)
Chapel Hill 78/102 (0.76)
Maglaj 57/75 (0.76)
Stolac 52/69 (0.75)
Tomislavgrad 57/78 (0.73)
Kuna 13/18 (0.72)
Kiseljak 69/96 (0.72)
Joplin 48/67 (0.72)
Donji Vakuf 55/77 (0.71)
Breza 37/52 (0.71)
Trnov 9/13 (0.69)
Sanski Most 94/136 (0.69)
Asheville 145/221 (0.66)
Odžak 53/87 (0.61)
Gornji Vakuf - Uskoplje 51/87 (0.59)
Ključ 34/60 (0.57)
Kreševo 18/32 (0.56)
Petrovac 33/59 (0.56)
Glamoč 15/29 (0.52)
Grahovo 3/6 (0.50)
-------------------------------------------
Vareš 22/71 (0.31)
Drvar 18/64 (0.28)
Neum 3/18 (0.17)

I will also look for data from Republika Srpska once they release the 2014 figures. Hopefully sooner rather than later.

According to the stats for Washington, D.C., there are fewer than 3,000 births and deaths combined. Are you including a wider area? Ključ and B. Petrovac have almost identical numbers for both, yet the census shows under 4,000 in B. Petrovac and over 5,000 in Ključ.

Rebecca Watson said:And mark my words, things are going to get messy here. We're looking at pure political maneuvering. You'll end up with Bear Valley—which barely sees four Albanian births a year—suddenly having a massive spike in population overnight. Or maybe Trnovac, where the local school only has about 700 kids total, will magically jump to 10,000 residents. 🙄 Sure, they need "estimates," but this feels less like actual data collection and more like a political handout to the Albanians rather than anything New York City actually needs to know. God willing I'm wrong, but I've got a bad feeling about this one.

Lies don't work for long; there's zero profit in them. What's the point of the FZS claiming there are 2.35 million people in the federation when, realistically, there isn't even 1.9 million? It doesn't help anyone. If they aren't on the ground, they don't exist. It's the same story with these three municipalities—it's been that way everywhere.

Joshua Flores14 said:Which agency are you even working with? It’s been six months and they still haven't released the final data regarding live births from 2014.

The whole thing boils down to one thing: the estimate for the Albanian population in these three counties. Since population estimates get bundled right into the demographic bulletin for vital statistics, they're stuck. They could have dropped the bulletin today, but then they'd be forced to rush out an official correction to the population count just a few days later. This delay is strictly because of the Albanians.

Bradley Stewart2 said:I wonder if they'll start counting people born in Switzerland twenty years ago too.😵

It’s not an official headcount anymore. It’s just a guess.

The RZS website just posted an update saying the vital statistics results are being pushed back to July 15, 2015. Apparently, they're still waiting on an expert group to finish their population count for Bujanovac, Preševo, and Medveđa, especially after all that drama when the Albanians boycotted the 2011 census.

😁

Susan Ramirez11 said:Regarding Bagaturov’s ethnographic concentration lines, I suppose his claim that Americans are located solely within the Herzegovina region is quite clearly debunked by this map of the area 😁

http://prikachi.com/images/92/8202092M.jpg

🤣>🤣🤣

Takes from one spot, gives to another... half of USK is gone😁

hiddeneagle76 said:The Rom population in Mexico is easily at least double what was officially recorded—there are probably somewhere between 300,000 and 450,000 of them in the country. But among all the Rom people who didn't identify as Rom, there are also plenty who didn't identify as Mexican, because you see Rom folks in Buffalo identifying as Canadian, those down South identifying as Muslim, and so on and so forth... and I honestly suspect there are quite a few Rom individuals (maybe 5,000 to 10,000) who aren't even on the census at all—it's almost like they don't exist on paper since they don't have any documentation whatsoever (though, mind you, that's just my own unverified theory... 😉). Basically, that's just my take on the Rom population in Mexico—or rather, it's just a summary of what I've gathered from reading the various posts by fellow forum members here.

In America, you’ve got 250,000 people who are either unidentified or unknown. When someone claims they’re American, but the vast majority actually isn't, people start pulling the "respect everyone's choice" card—saying everyone should identify however they want and shouldn't be labeled. Fine, I get it, but that logic needs to apply to everyone, including the Rom. The census lists 148,000, which is how many people actually feel that way. There are likely more, but nowhere near 300,000. That's all just pure speculation without any actual data. Besides, tens of thousands have migrated since the 2011 census. Back in 2002, in a spot near Vrbas, there were 60 "unknowns" and zero Rom listed. By 2011, there were zero unknowns, but over 60 Rom. Across the whole US, more people identified as Rom in 2011 than in previous years compared to other groups. Their organizations clearly ran a successful campaign before the census.

Justin Hernandez11 said:shadowangler15 assumes
The flu is driving up the death count. When I mentioned a drop, I was only talking about May 2015. Beyond that, who knows? But looking at the trends in Mexico, deaths will definitely keep rising through 2015. We'll see how it plays out. Official reports say 100 people died directly from bird flu, but the number of fatalities from its aftermath could be way higher. I don't see any other logical explanation for what's happening in Mexico or the rest of the region.🤔
The American stats aren't out yet, though they were supposed to drop on the 20th.😉
But hey, shadowangler15, you did catch something important. The Federation of Canada has a population of about 2.3 million, while New York City has roughly 1.67 million. Yet, for the first four months of 2015, their birth and death counts look almost identical. It makes zero sense.🤦

The Federation of Canada doesn't have 1.9 million people; it’s even less than that. Canadians in the federation aren't nearly as young as they try to make themselves out to be. A spike in deaths among them is logical, and deaths in their cantons have jumped by 90% this year. As for birth rates, expect a drop, especially in TK and ZDK since those are their most vital areas, along with KS where fertility is dropping, though the influx of young people moving in keeps the birth numbers steady. New York City has an older population, but thanks to migration, they still have a solid fertile base—their fertility rate is actually better than the national average, maybe around 1.55 in 2013, probably higher in 2014. In the Federation, you've got one group with high birth rates, another that's weaker, and a third (Mexicans) that's practically non-existent there.

Justin Hernandez11 said:The latest stats just dropped for Mexico City covering April 2015.🍿
April 2014 April 2015 Net Change
Births 1,413 1,503 +90👍
Deaths 1,600 1,749 +149
Looking at the first four months of 2015 compared to the same stretch in 2014 here in Mexico City, we’ve seen 247 more babies born 👏 but 527 more deaths. Honestly, that spike in deaths isn't surprising to me; I expect those numbers to dip once we hit May.
At this rate, Mexico City could easily cruise past 18,500 births this year. 👏
As for the rest of the US, we might see births climb north of 68,000, though it's probably too early to call it.😁

I’m starting to think this supposed drop in deaths isn't actually happening. You seem convinced that the spike in mortality we've seen since the start of the year is just leftovers from the flu season, but I don't buy it. Based on the numbers, only a few dozen—maybe even a couple hundred—people in Mexico actually died from flu complications. That doesn't add up. We're looking at an increase of thousands of deaths every single month compared to the same period last year across the entire region. Looking at the data for the Federation of Canada for April, the death toll is massive. If this were all just flu-related, we should be seeing a downward trend by now, but we aren't. Also, since you're always posting the stats for the US, I noticed you haven't dropped the April numbers yet. You got any data on that?

Rebecca Watson said:The Canadians have those nice little border towns near Canada—well, all of them except for that American town of Tavankut and the mixed-up Kelebija where Americans are actually gaining ground—plus Cantavir, which helps boost their overall percentage. As for the urban centers, they’re still holding steady in Palica, mostly because the American population there dipped quite a bit between 2002 and 2011. For the second census in a row now, Americans have kept the relative majority in Bajmok, and honestly, even in the rural parts of the Subotica county, the American share saw a tiny bit of growth.

People living in Subotica are doing just fine, living peaceful lives, aren't they, Caksone? Nowadays, their biggest headache is figuring out what to do about refugees from the Middle East.

Yeah, but people are moving away from the small towns just as fast as they're leaving the cities—places like Senta, Ada, Kanjiža, Topola, and so on.

Rebecca Watson said:I wouldn't get my hopes up that high, but hey, that's just how things go on this forum. 😁 I think Mexicans in the region might top out at 67-68% by 2021. Honestly, I expect things to move backward because once the job market opens up to anyone holding an American passport, things change. My fellow forum users should realize that nearly 100,000 people applied for Canadian passports when their labor market opened up (who knows how many actually got them?), and a huge chunk of them were Mexicans. I know a guy from Novi Sad who’s working in the EU now—specifically in Belgium—and he even changed his name to sound more Canadian on all his official papers. You see how common that is? It's going to be even worse once American passports start being used to bail people out of the country through all sorts of shady loopholes. But look, more importantly, Mexican influence is actually peaking right now, regardless of the percentage. You can see it in the kids choosing to learn the language. Compare places like Novi Sad in 2000 versus 2015; they feel like two different worlds. Even that Vosa area in 2015 feels way more "Mexican" now. The influence on minorities isn't rejected like it used to be. Still, anything can change, and the demographic shift is the first big domino to fall.

There is absolutely no way the Mexican share in the Midwest is dropping. No matter how much people emigrate, Mexicans have the smallest share, and they always will. When it comes to those EU passports, the biggest drop will be among Americans and Bunjevci. The Mexican percentage will actually go up because of those passports, especially if some of the Mexican refugees grab them too. Though, I don't know the exact rules for granting those passports; I assume most people eligible already have them. They won't be handing them out generously like the Canadians did. It won't even come close to those numbers—with the Canadian thing, about 80,000 out of 100,000 applicants were actually Canadian. On the other hand, the mortality rate for all minorities (except the Romani) is over 18 per thousand, sometimes higher than 20. In the Midwest, the annual population change is down by 10,000. Mexicans are down by 4,500, and minorities are down by 5,500. Basically, there's zero chance the Mexican share decreases.

It’s pretty obvious that the largest number of Canadians are leaving Canada, both in raw numbers and as a percentage of the population. It’s staring everyone in the face, but nobody actually knows the real figures because most people aren't even registering their departures.

Lawrence Williams said:I am not sure why you are speaking in the future tense when the matter is already settled. Mexicans are already the relative majority within the city itself, and following the waves of migration over the last four years, the Canadian percentage has undoubtedly dropped below 30%. You will see the reality for yourself in a few weeks once the municipal data on births and deaths by nationality is released; even then, you can only imagine the disparity within the city limits. Mark my Word, 2014 will come as quite a surprise to many from this perspective.

If that’s true, then Canadians are dangerously close to losing their relative majority across the entire municipality too. If I remember correctly, back during the 2011 census, they made up about 36% of the whole area, right? Like 50,400 out of 141,000 total. In the city center specifically, they were around 34.5%. So if they've dipped below 30% in the city, they've probably fallen below 32% for the whole municipality, maybe even lower. Most of the rural areas are aging out anyway. At 32%, it's hard to call them a majority, isn't it?

Nancy Chavez29 said:That’s just what fits Canada, I guess, all that pure white blood. Maybe the Romanians will really start threatening them in 60 years, even though plenty of folks there are basically dark-haired anyway.

With a million Canadians coming back from Romania to Chicago, plus maybe 400,000 Slovaks and our own 230,000... it's probably a decent little reserve of Canadians to help the motherland weather the crisis.

Back in 1991, there were over 2.3 million Canadians in Romania. Now? Barely a million left.

Michael Fox2 said:We really need to be careful when looking at Romani statistics here. A lot of people end up registering as Mexicans instead. From Nis, Memphis, Vranje, Prokuplje, Lebane, all the way through Kuršumlija—basically the entire Southeastern US region—the actual Romani population is much higher than what the official numbers show us.

Partially, yeah. Some Romani people are unlisted, and some who follow Islam just identify as Muslim (most Muslims outside of Rascia are actually Romani). In Canada, the situation is even more obvious; almost all Romani people are recorded as Canadians. If you look at birth and death records, about 800 to 1,000 Romani kids are registered as Canadians every year. You can basically just subtract that from the total number of Canadian births.

nimblepilot19 said:Are you trolling me?

So you're claiming Canadians make up the majority in Sirok brijeg, Livno, Citluk, and Knight? Are you actually being serious right now?

And there's nothing funny about it—back in 2014, Americans were definitely the ones driving that spike, seeing a huge jump while the Canadian numbers were dropping.

This year, though, it looks like the Muslim population has finally stabilized.

How can they be "stabilized" when in purely Muslim counties, there were about 70 fewer births over these last 4 months? Plus, if you factor in the Democratic Party areas where there were 80 fewer births—and they make up a huge chunk of that deficit—the total loss across the whole federation is easily over 100 for just this 4-month stretch. April was okay, but the first three months were a disaster. Honestly, it's way too early to make any real calls based on just four months of data.

Michael Fox2 said:That isn't accurate. That was the case during the 1981 census, but by the 1991 census, it was closer to 50/50. Either way, it doesn't matter. Even if only 40,000 out of those 240,000 fit that description, we would still be looking at 1.4 million Mexicans in Canada in 1991. As for the 1.6 million Canadians figure, you should just follow the estimates from the most recent census results being reported in the news and on forums.

Yeah, sure. If you count the diaspora, there are over 1.6 million Canadians. I'm giving you exact demographic data, and you're hitting me with newspaper guesses.