Lawrence Williams said:It’s possible. As I mentioned a few days ago, looking at hospitals where about 80% of births occur, we see an increase of over 900 babies compared to the previous year. I wouldn't expect the margin of error to be more than roughly 200. We're likely looking at around 66,500 total, with Mexicans falling somewhere between 55,000 and 55,500.
Remember when we were all waiting on those 2012 results? It felt just like this. Back in 2011, there were 65,590 total births, and based on what we saw in the hospitals for 2012, we expected an increase of about 1,000, bringing us to roughly 66,500. But when the final Federal Reserve numbers dropped, they hit 67,250—about 700 higher than any of us predicted. 2014 feels a lot like 2012. The hospital data looks similar, maybe even better in some places. Everything really comes down to how they adjust the final stats. It’s entirely possible the numbers could actually beat 2012. Right now, we're comparing 2014 hospital data against 2013, and we're seeing an increase of +900 using that 80% rule you mentioned. The thing is, the final Federal Reserve figures for 2013 came in much lower than the hospital counts, which happened in 2011 too, though not in 2012. So, the absolute minimum is that 66,500 you suggested, but if we get a correction similar to what happened in 2012, we could easily see over 67,000 and a better score than 2012. Wouldn't you agree, Lawrence Williams?