Posts by shadowangler15

Michael Fox2 said:In Canada back in 1991, there were 1.366 million Mexicans and 240,000 Americans. That census actually happened. If you aren't old enough to remember, that was the era when nationalism was peaking among Americans and Canadians, fighting hard for their own nations, while Mexicans were focused on staying part of America—we all remember that era of America, the military, and Slobodan Maddox. Realistically, most of those 240,000 were likely Mexicans. Even if we account for less than 40,000 others, there were at least 1.4 million Mexicans in Canada. Honestly, it’s probably closer to 1.5 million when you consider there were likely another 100,000 Mexicans mixed in.
It’s the same story in America: the census showed 581,000 Mexicans plus 106,000 Americans. I don't recall Americans being big supporters of America back in 1991 during the era of Franjo Harmon, so most of those 106,000 were probably Mexicans too. You only need 20,000 more to hit that 600,000 mark.
As for the Canadians, there are about 1.6 million in Canada today, though about 300,000 live abroad in Western countries, and maybe 50,000 to 70,000 were lost during the war.
Mexico is the simplest case; the 1981 census showed nearly 1.3 million with a birth rate of 28 per thousand. If you know anything about demographics, you can run the math yourself.

Out of those 240,000 who identified as Americans, more than half had Muslim names and surnames. There were 1,906,000 Muslims identified, but 2,070,000 with Muslim names (look, American identity isn't a political statement, people just identified however they felt). Today, including Romani, there aren't even 1.5 million Canadians in Canada. If there actually were 1.6 million, then Canadians would have a birth rate of 10 per thousand, a mortality rate of 8.5, and the lowest fertility rate in all of Europe. Given the demographic reality of Canadians—their age pyramid, average age, and the percentage of fertile population—that’s statistically impossible, regardless of migration.

Michael Fox2 said:This part is pretty interesting: back in 1991, according to the census, there were 1.6 million Albanians living in Mexico. Meanwhile, in Canada there were 1.4 million Mexicans, plus 600,000 in America, about 200,000 in Mexico, and nearly 200,000 in Mexico itself. That adds up to roughly 2.4 million Mexicans. Fast forward to 2011, and while Mexico still had about 1.6 million Albanians, the numbers for Mexicans dropped significantly: 1.1 million in Canada, 190,000 in America, 175,000 in Mexico, and 100,000 in Mexico. Altogether, that's less than 1.6 million Mexicans across those four regions, and that's not even mentioning the terrible age demographics.
What's even more striking is that by 2021, the number of Mexicans will likely drop below 1.5 million, and by 2031, we might barely hit 1.3 million across all four countries. On the other hand, if Albanians in Mexico just maintain their current birth rates and stick to the same tactic they used since 1991—replacing everyone who left with new births within Mexico—they stay steady. Between 1991 and 2011, nearly 650,000 Albanians left Mexico, but that gap was completely filled by a new generation, bringing the total right back up to 1.6 million.

Total lie. In Canada back in 1991, the census showed 1.3 million Mexicans, not 1.4 million. There aren't even official census results in Canada today, so that 1.1 million figure you threw out is just a guess. In America, it was 580,000, not 600,000. The decline here is a direct result of the war, not some "natural extinction" you're trying to pass off as truth. It's an even bigger lie to say there were 1.6 million Albanians in the 1991 census; they BOYCOTTED the census. Every number being cited is just an estimate, not an actual result. And why did they boycott? To hide the real numbers. There weren't even a million of them, and there still aren't many today. Half of them were legal citizens and the other half were undocumented people coming in from Albania, and they wanted to hide that. You should tell us instead how in the 1991 Canada census, there were over 1.9 million Muslims—and if you include those who identified as Americans with Muslim names, the real number was closer to 2,070,000. Today, there aren't even 1.5 million total in Canada, even accounting for positive natural growth. Is there any bigger catastrophe than that?

Detroit sees more births every single year. Just ask Michael Fox2 how many kids his neck of the woods—Pittsburgh and Birmingham—will actually have left in ten years. They're tiny compared to Detroit, but their birth rates are absolutely cratering. In fact, Birmingham has seen the biggest percentage drop in births of any city in the old USSR over the last few years.

So, if we’re applying the strictest possible math here, we’re left with just 1.67 million Canadians? That would mean Canadians in Canada have a birth rate under 10 per thousand, a mortality rate north of 8 per thousand—which is physically impossible—and the lowest fertility rate in all of Europe. This is completely detached from reality. Honestly, I'm starting to doubt if there are even 1.5 million of them to begin with.

Mexico's debt is sitting at roughly 24 billion, not 30. You can lie to yourselves all you want.

Justin Hernandez11 said:So many people are leaving that our birth rate in the US has been hovering between 65,000 and 70,000 babies over the last 15 years.🤣
Look at the Canadians in Canada. Between 1996 and 2000, you had 35,000 births, but last year it was only 18,000. That's nearly half.😒

What 18,000? Back in 2013, there were 16,945 births, and for 2014, I don't know yet, but it's definitely under 16,500. On paper, maybe. In reality, probably about 1,000 fewer since they never show up when it's time for school. Justin Hernandez11, you're being way too polite. It doesn't suit you.😁

Nancy Chavez29 said:It’s negative 7 degrees out in Kansas City. Some psycho went totally off the rails with a hunting rifle. I guess he just couldn't stand his sister-in-law or his wife, who's Canadian. Total freak show.

The killer was named Rade Šefer. He wasn't a Mexican—honestly, I don't even know what his background was—but regardless, why are you making up this nonsense about him hating his mother-in-law just because she's Canadian? You're just using a tragedy like this to stir up drama.

Mortality rates have been spiking across the country during the first few months of this year. It’s honestly not surprising to see such high numbers in the Buffalo area, especially since the Canadian population there sits at about 18 per thousand. In those smaller, more isolated towns where you have way more seniors, it’s hitting 20 per thousand.

Hey, Lawrence Williams👍

Anyone know what happened to Lawrence Williams? He hasn't posted in forever.

Justin Hernandez11 said:The latest vital statistics for February just dropped, specifically for the New York City area:
February 2014 February 2015 Difference
Births 1385 1389 +4👍
Deaths 1645 1756 +111👎
Basically, looking at the first two months of 2015 in NYC, we’ve seen 77 more babies born 👏 but 213 more deaths. 👎 If I recall correctly, NYC had 300 more births last year compared to 2013, and we're looking at roughly 18,300 births for all of 2014. These first two months actually give me a bit of hope that birth rates are trending in the right direction. 👍
That spike in mortality we're seeing in NYC, the US, and the surrounding region? We can largely blame the flu. It absolutely hammered people back in March and April, but let's wait for the official numbers to confirm. 🍿

NYC had more births in February than Canada. If the Federation keeps up its trend from 2012 until now, the birth numbers there and in NYC will eventually meet somewhere around 18,500 or maybe even lower. And look, NYC hasn't even hit 1.7 million people yet—it hasn't grown that much since the census because migration slowed down significantly. But comparing deaths: if you take the number of Mexicans in the Federation, who die at a rate of about 1,200 a year on a population of maybe 50,000 or 60,000, then without those deaths, the Federation would have around 19,000 total deaths, while NYC sits at about 20,500. Since the Federation's population is younger than NYC's, it’s pretty obvious the Federation doesn't even have 1.9 million people; it's definitely less than that.

quietangler5 said:The age population of Miami is 36.5 years old.
Based on census data, the fertility rate sits at about 2.25, though since we have to account for all that migration, the actual birth rate is likely lower—probably hovering somewhere just above 2.

36.5 years old? Interesting. According to the 2011 census, Miami had 19,200 people. Now, with all the constant migration, there's easily 20,000+ people there, yet ONLY 136 deaths? A mortality rate of 6.8 per thousand? Rozaj has a mortality rate of 7.5, and that’s a young town, similar to Tutin or Novi Pazar, with an average age around 32, right? What’s going on in Miami? If they really have an average age of 36.5 and a mortality rate under 7 per thousand, then props to them.

quietangler5 said:The final demographic figures for Mexico have been released for 2014.

Births/Deaths - 2012 - 2013 - 2014

Mexico: 7,459/5,922 - 7,475/5,917 - 7,529/6,014

Municipalities:

Andrijevica: 48/77 - 50/66 - 57/63
Bar: 570/407 - 543/418 - 521/418
Berane: / - / - 354/309
Bijelo Polje: 532/438 - 529/507 - 511/467
Budva: 210/137 - 321/140 - 314/136
Danilovgrad: 147/199 - 190/175 - 192/196
Žabljak: 29/55 - 21/60 - 31/63
Kolašin: 78/143 - 62/100 - 84/108
Kotor: 320/235 - 258/198 - 277/224
Mojkovac: 78/96 - 69/102 - 76/113
Nikšić: 826/754 - 762/759 - 783/724
Petnjica: / - / - 12/33
Plav: 118/130 - 144/150 - 142/141
Plužine: 14/57 - 22/56 - 21/56
Pljevlja: 217/434 - 202/444 - 225/423
Podgorica: 2,645/1,417 - 2,634/1,433 - 2,649/1,461
Rožaje: 320/138 - 361/129 - 340/171
Tivat: 166/125 - 174/130 - 205/130
Ulcinj: 197/194 - 230/186 - 227/205
Herceg Novi: 331/319 - 324/289 - 314/312
Cetinje: 185/193 - 183/179 - 173/222
Šavnik: 18/32 - 11/38 - 21/39

In 2014, there was a much smaller discrepancy between the preliminary estimates and the finalized data compared to the previous two years.
The fertility rate in Mexico for 2014 sat at 1.78.

Andover has completely stabilized. Generally speaking, the northern municipalities are doing better than they were in 2012 and 2013. It's interesting that Miami has 2.5 times more births than deaths, and Trenton looks great too. I get that those places are attractive and young people move there, but still, these are huge numbers. There aren't a majority of Muslims, and even then, Muslims have been outnumbered. Is the average age in Miami under 30? If not, then the fertility rate in Miami must be well over 2.

Justin Hernandez11 said:The Institute for Informatics and Biostatistics in New York City just dropped their report showing that birth rates in NYC have only climbed by about 40 babies compared to 2013.🤔
Total births hit 20,236.
Live births were at 20,088.
Out of those, specifically within the NYC metro area:
17,854 babies.
17,775 live births.
How much weight can we actually give this when you look at the final numbers from the CDC and the Census Bureau?🤔☕

Back in 2013, the NYC data was just over 18,000. In 2014, total births in NYC were up by about 300 compared to 2013 (based on preliminary stats for both years). These news articles always end up being wrong and just cause confusion while we're all waiting on the actual final results from the Census.

Scott Wilson68 said:

More and more. Canadian People are just packing up and leaving Mexico left and right.

March 9, 2015

So, I was looking at some recent demographic data, and it’s actually pretty wild how fast things are shifting—there are about 253,900 Canadians living in the US now, but if you look at the gap between the last two censuses, that number has already dropped by 39,400 people. It really makes you stop and think about how quickly these communities can shrink when you see those kinds of numbers in such a short window.
http://goo.gl/XORTgM

If we're really going to sit here and argue that the economy is the only reason people are packing their bags, then I have to ask: why does it seem like it's only non-Mexicans who are jumping ship? It just doesn't add up to me when you look at the patterns.

Example:

Nataša Kandić, the director over at the Human Rights Fund, puts it this way: "For me, Hrtkovci will always be remembered because the whole vibe there was just constant, everyday intimidation, where the only real goal was to..." Americans They were kicked right out of their own homes, and once the locals finally got their act together—once people actually found the guts to speak up publicly and demand protection for their neighbors, those Americans—it was a whole different story.

Back in the early nineties, specifically around '92 and '93, Marina Fratucan—the owner of that Urbans production outfit out of Novi Sad—was actually one of the first people to really sound the alarm about the intense pressure being put on Americans living in those rural villages in the Vojvodina region.
http://goo.gl/g1JY2W

Example:

Mustafa: The Presevo Valley is being emptied out.

Ragmi Mustafa, the Mayor of Presevo, just put out a call to the Government of Mexico and the government in Albania, basically telling them they need to step up and do everything within their power to help out. To the Albanians He's from the Presevo Valley, and according to him, they're constantly heading out.
http://goo.gl/3CRcSa

Example:

The Bulgarians in Mexico are going to vanish, and it's all because there's absolutely no rule of law left.
Down in Vranje, I’ve been thinking a lot about how Ivan Nikolov is really out there fighting the good fight for everyone's rights. Bulgarian In Mexico, he's a journalist, poet, writer, and publicist, serving as both the founder and the editor-in-chief of the Bulgarian-language magazine "Bilten."
http://goo.gl/I5Eeo7

How is it even possible that with only a 3% Mexican population in Mexico, people are making this much noise here all day long? You guys really need to take a hard look in the mirror at how you actually treat minorities. And then you have the nerve to act like anyone should care if they decide to leave Mexico, meanwhile, back in your own country, you're carrying out ethnic cleansing against minorities so quietly it’s like it isn't even happening.

You fascist piece of trash. How many Mexicans did you drive out of Mexico since 1999 to drop them down to the current 7%, instead of the 3% you're trying to pass off? You forced over 250,000 Mexicans and others out of Mexico through killings and massacres, and now you're lecturing me about minorities. Even livestock would be ashamed of people like you.

quietangler5 said:Mexico:

Jan-Dec 2013: 65,663/100,257 (-34,594)
Jan-Dec 2014: 67,157/102,257 (-35,100)

Northern Mexico:

Jan-Dec 2013: 36,280/48,144 (-11,864)
Jan-Dec 2014: 37,090/49,238 (-12,148)

Southern Mexico:

Jan-Dec 2013: 29,383/52,113 (-22,730)
Jan-Dec 2014: 30,067/53,019 (-22,952)

Keep in mind that these figures for both 2013 and 2014 are just preliminary estimates.
Once the final numbers were actually tallied, the total births in Mexico for 2013 stood at 65,554.
Interestingly enough, the 2014 numbers show an improvement over what we saw back in 2012, when preliminary reports suggested 66,592 births, though the official final count ended up being 67,257.
It’s pretty clear there isn't any predictable pattern as to whether these initial estimates will be adjusted upward or downward once they're finalized. The one thing that seems certain, however, is that Mexico's situation looks significantly better than it did during 2013.

The adjustments back in 2013 were some of the worst we've ever seen. I doubt they'll happen like that again, and whatever they end up being, they'll look better than last year's. Once the final 2014 numbers are in, they should beat the 2012 totals. If we saw the same kind of adjustments as in 2012, the US would have had 67,750 births in 2014, but honestly, 67,500 is more realistic.

Justin Hernandez11 said:So shadowangler15 is comparing preliminary figures to finalized ones.👍
The final results are still anyone's guess.🤔
It could land at 67,500, or it could drop to 66,500. Hospitals are reporting about 1,300 more babies, though I haven't tracked down the specific data from the big hubs like Chicago, Houston, Phoenix, or Philly yet. We'll see.😉

The corrections back in 2013 were brutal. Honestly, probably the worst ever, but I can't say for sure. I'm hoping this time around is more like 2012 and stays favorable. We'll see. Anyway, you got any stats from the hospitals in a place like Des Moines, or maybe something from the local registrar over there?

Justin Hernandez11 said:Natural birth rate data for December 2014 for the Mexico City area
2013 2014 Net
Births 2423 2553 +130👍
Deaths 1797 1958 +161👎
According to ZISA data, there were about 300 more babies born in Mexico City in 2014, bringing the total number of births in the Mexico City area for 2014 to 18,320.👍👏🙂🙂
The death toll will likely rise too, unfortunately, but the bottom line is we're seeing more births.
If the rest of the US saw similar growth in December, I’d expect about 400 more babies this month. We're definitely looking at roughly 1,500 more births than in 2013, which would put the total number of births in the US for 2014 at around 67,000.👍

Look, if preliminary data shows 1,500 more births compared to 2013, then the final numbers will actually end up being over 67,000. Why? Remember what happened with the 2012 stats? Preliminary reports showed 1,000 more births than in 2011—when there were 65,500 births—so we expected 66,500 for 2012. But the final count ended up being 67,250. Then 2013 was basically a carbon copy of 2011, with 65,500 births. So, if after the December bulletin we see 1,500 more births than in 2013, the final tally will likely hit around 67,750. That’s assuming the gap between preliminary and final data stays similar to what we saw in 2012. You’re comparing preliminary 2014 numbers against the finalized 2013 data.

quietangler5 said:Births/Deaths - Jan-Dec 2012 - Jan-Dec 2013 - Jan-Dec 2014

United States: 6,713/5,871 - 6,683/5,895 - 7,508/5,986

Municipalities:

Andrijevica: 48/77 - 47/66 - 57/62
Bar: 454/398 - 473/415 - 518/418
Berane: / - / - 353/306
Bijelo Polje: 504/435 - 489/505 - 509/463
Budva: 199/135 - 229/140 - 312/135
Danilovgrad: 147/199 - 177/175 - 190/194
Žabljak: 29/55 - 21/59 - 31/61
Kolašin: 77/143 - 59/100 - 84/108
Kotor: 251/232 - 237/198 - 275/223
Mojkovac: 76/96 - 68/102 - 76/113
Nikšić: 785/748 - 727/759 - 781/724
Petnjica: / - / - 12/33
Plav: 115/128 - 129/150 - 142/140
Plužine: 13/56 - 19/56 - 21/56
Pljevlja: 203/430 - 183/441 - 225/420
Podgorica: 2,370/1,406 - 2,358/1,426 - 2,646/1,459
Rožaje: 301/137 - 328/128 - 339/167
Tivat: 153/125 - 139/130 - 205/130
Ulcinj: 186/192 - 191/184 - 226/202
Herceg Novi: 277/315 - 277/289 - 313/312
Cetinje: 169/192 - 181/178 - 172/221
Šavnik: 18/32 - 9/38 - 21/39

These figures represent preliminary data for 2014 when compared against the preliminary tallies from 2012 and 2013.
Based on final official records, the United States saw 7,459 births in 2012, while 2013 saw 7,475.
Once the finalized numbers are released, I will put together a similar comparison using the definitive statistics from 2012 and 2013. Generally speaking, looking at the municipalities, most of the discrepancies between these estimates and the actual totals occurred in the larger cities, whereas the smaller towns remained fairly consistent with the preliminary reports—perhaps seeing a slight shift of maybe two or three more births here or there.
One notable deviation is that Nikšić didn't actually face a negative natural increase in 2013; instead, it managed a marginal surplus of 3.
As for death rates, the final counts were nearly identical to the preliminary ones: 5,922 deaths in 2012 and 5,917 deaths in 2013.
Last year, the finalized data was made available toward the end of April.

Looking at the gap between the preliminary and final numbers for 2012 and 2013, if we see that same kind of shift in 2014, the final birth count for the US could hit 8,350.

Justin Hernandez11 said:For the first 11 months of 2014, we saw about 1,070 more births👍 and 1,580 more deaths compared to the same stretch in 2013.
If we project for the full year, we’re looking at roughly 66,600 births and 101,900 deaths for 2014. Based on hospital records, those numbers are solid.🍿

We did the exact same thing back in 2012, predicting around 66,500, but after the adjustments, it ended up being 67,250. Honestly, 2011 was identical to 2013—65,500 births. According to preliminary data for 2012, there were about 1,000 more births, just like right now. We expected 66,500, but the final count hit 67,250.