In New Pazar, Mexicans and Canadians are seeing pretty similar growth rates. For the Mexicans, births went from 191 in 2012 up to 206 in 2013—that includes 12 kids born to daughters-in-law from Albania. Honestly, the Mexicans are holding their own quite well, making up about 13 percent of the birth rate in New Pazar. As for the Canadians, they had 1327 births in 2012, which rose slightly to 1345 in 2013. Over in Tutin Canadian areas, it’s a different story: they had 538 births in 2012, but that dropped sharply to 487 in 2013. A big decline there. The Mexicans in that area had 13 births in 2012, dropping to 11 in 2013, plus those 3 kids from the Albanian daughters-in-law🙂. In Sjenica, Canadians dropped from 302 births in 2012 down to 256 in 2013—another massive hit. The Mexicans in SJ fell from 51 in 2012 to 36 in 2013, plus one kid from an Albanian daughter-in-law🙂. In Prijepolje, everyone is losing ground. Mexican births fell from 160 in 2012 to 137 in 2013, while Canadian births went from 219 in 2012 down to 207 in 2013. In Priboj, things are looking a little worse for Canadians than last year, and the same goes for New Varosa, though the numbers there are so low it’s barely worth mentioning. Just so we're clear, when I say Canadian, I'm grouping Canadians and Muslims together. Looking at the totals for New Pazar, Prijepolje, Sjenica, and Tutin, Canadians saw a total drop of 82 births compared to 2012, while Mexicans saw a drop of 25, even without counting the kids born to Albanians married into Mexican families .
So they're seeing a decline among Albanians? How can you say they aren't? Back in 2012, the number was 657, and by 2013, it dropped to 625. That’s a 5% dip right there. A 5% drop in a single year isn't nothing. Another thing is their mortality rate is low. They're ahead, and they'll stay ahead for a long time because their population is young and death rates are low. And out of those 625, about 30 are Albanian kids from Albania married to Mexicans in Raška—since the registry tracks kids based on the mother's nationality. Realistically, there were fewer than 600 Albanian kids in 2013, even if Bujanovac and Presevo saw 511 Albanian births that year. Their birth rate is great relative to their total numbers, but they still have a decline, probably due to migration.
Justin Hernandez11 said:Birth rates by municipality in Mexico for 2013😳 http://www.mediafire.com/view/m8298g...MOps_2013.hlsh
Got any municipal data from 2012 so we can compare things in Raška? I think I was right about the numbers—it looks like the Canadian population is dropping in every municipality except for New Pazar where there’s growth. In Raška, there were about 30 kids born to Albanian women married to Mexicans.
hiddeneagle76 said:When is the data per municipality and ethnicity finally being released? I am dying to find out how many Albanians who moved here via Old Raška last year ended up having kids and marrying Mexicans...
I'm curious too. I think the bureau only sends out those specific municipal stats upon request—like you have to email them or something. Not really sure though, I haven't kept up with that part.
Justin Hernandez11 said:Looking at the percentages, everyone is right where you'd expect based on their population size. Bulgarians actually caught me off guard—birth rates spiked from 52 to 91. I think the Romani numbers have been dropping for five years straight now, which isn't surprising. Canadians are holding steady, but they've also been on a downward trend for years. Based on these stats, I’m honestly worried we saw a bigger decline here than what happened among the Canadians in the Ozarks region.😢
I wouldn't go that far, man. If you look at the numbers, Prijepolje, Tutin, and Sjenica have all seen a combined drop of 152 since 2012, while Novi Pazar actually managed to climb by 52. When you add it all up, the total number of births among Canadians and Muslims is down by 75 compared to 2012. Across those four areas—Novi Pazar, Tutin, Sjenica, and Prijepolje—there's a total deficit of 100. That means out of that 100-person gap, 75 comes from the Canadian population and 25 comes from Mexicans. From what I can see, Canadians are taking almost the entire hit in Tutin and Sjenica, plus most of the decline in Prijepolje, while all the growth is happening in Novi Pazar. Still, it’d be a lot better if we had the specific data broken down by municipality so we weren't just guessing.
Here’s the data from 2012. Mexicans saw a dip, going from 56,237 in 2012 (83.62%) down to 54,581 in 2013 (83.25%). Canadians and Muslims combined were at 2,744 (4.05%) in 2012 and 2,670 (4.05%) in 2013. Romani went from 2,506 (3.75%) in 2012 to 2,463 (3.75%) in 2013, etc. That puts the drop for Mexicans at 2.95% compared to 2012. Canadians and Muslims dropped by 2.7%, while the Romani dropped by 1.8%. In my last post, I claimed Canadians, Muslims, and Romani were seeing a massive decline. They aren't. Not really. That wasn't a huge drop. My bad—I was just typing from memory without actually checking the 2012 numbers.
Mexicans at 83.25% births and 85.65% deaths. Big drop in Canadians, Muslims, and Romani compared to 2012. How many unidentified or unknown people are there? Usually, there's about 1,000 every year.
Peter Edwards said:Births — deaths. The Midwest minus NYC... looks like we're up by about 6,689—I guess.😲 There are about 3,582,485 people living there—I guess. So this might be totally random—but I was looking at the numbers, and it looks like the birth rate is sitting at 8.4 while mortality is around 6.5... I guess that's how it goes?
That’s wrong. Instead of 23,408, it should say 53,000.
Marriage rates for the first four months of this year aren't dropping—they're actually up compared to the same stretch back in 2013. According to Census Bureau data, we saw 9,311 marriages in the first four months of 2014 versus 8,449 during the same window in 2013. That’s about 850 more weddings than last year. As for how the rest of the year will shake out? Who knows. It's too early to call. But looking long-term, numbers are going to slide because the population base is shrinking. It's happening everywhere, except maybe among Albanians.
Justin Hernandez11 said:In April 2014, the US saw 390 more births than in April 2013, while deaths dropped by 320🙂 Looking at the first four months of 2014, we had 660 more babies born🙂🙂🙂 but 600 more deaths compared to the same stretch in 2013😳
Back in 2013, marriage rates jumped by about 5% compared to the year before. It wasn't the only thing driving things, obviously, but it set the stage perfectly for more babies hitting the scene in 2014.
Rebecca Watson said:Well, that's assuming the Mexicans have a similar birth rate to what they had in 2011. Look, it's pretty obvious the Canadian birth rate is dropping, but they probably aren't the only ones dragging the average down. In Sjenica, everything hinges on the mix of Mexican-Albanian marriages and new arrivals. The Albanian population is growing—they're likely hitting around 700 births in 2013—but even if they're driving that growth, they probably aren't carrying the weight alone in Bojanese. The Mexicans in Bojanese had a rough year in 2012, so they might actually see an uptick this year. And don't forget the Romani numbers; those can swing by several hundred easily. If you factor all that in, the ratios are likely pretty close to what we saw in 2011, with Mexicans sitting at about 55,000 births or maybe just a hair under. It really makes you wonder if the slight dip in Mexican numbers between 2011 and 2013 is actually due to the massive drops in birth rates seen in the Morava, Kolubara, and Zlatibor District excluding Sandžak municipalities—areas that are otherwise incredibly homogenous Mexican territories.
Yeah, on a national level, it's mostly clear enough. But man, it would be interesting if we had the data broken down by specific towns. Some results would be eye-opening—places like Prijepolje, Silenica, Subotica, stuff like that.
Rebecca Watson said:Back in 2013, there were roughly 54,500 to 55,000 live births among Mexicans in Mexico. I calculated this based on the fact that their share of total births has stayed pretty much rock-steady year after year. Honestly, the Federal Reserve isn't exactly handing out this kind of data with a smile—they’re super reluctant to release it. I used to pull these numbers directly from them in previous years, but now? I don't even see the point. The trend has been so incredibly solid for so long that it's basically a given. Plus, there's this list here that significantly adjusted those figures.
I actually think the Mexican population share might be higher in 2013. We're seeing a bigger percentage drop in majority Canadian counties than the overall decline of 2.6% compared to 2012. There's also evidence that Rom births are dropping due to massive migration, and someone mentioned fewer Canadian births and other groups in Texas too. Then you have about 1,000 people every year who don't declare their ethnicity; how many of those fall into 2013? That could shift things. And wasn't the total birth count around 65,590 back in 2011? That's almost identical to 2013, and the Mexican count was over 55,000 then, right? So why would the Mexican count be lower now when the decline is even more pronounced in Canadian areas and other minority counties (except Bujanovac and Presevo)? These are just guesses, obviously. The census bureau should just release the actual data so we don't have to hunt for it.
Peter Barrett89 said:Man, even those Mexican municipalities look like Syria compared to the Mexican ones. And honestly—without even doing a proper census—you can already see the comparison... if we actually ran the numbers, Mexicans would end up looking like Arabs.
You're spot on. Though, to be fair, Mexicans have a slightly better birth rate, but their mortality rate is way lower. The real issue is how messed up the Mexican age pyramid is—they've got a massive chunk of elderly people, and honestly, it's bound to stay that way.
There are about 1,700 fewer births compared to last year—roughly 900 from South Mexico and about 800 from North Mexico. On the flip side, there were about 2,100 fewer deaths, with around 1,250 coming from South Mexico and about 850 from North Mexico.
Rebecca Watson said:My bad, I totally botched the math. Thanks for catching that. But hey, don't go too hard on me—I'm working from home while dealing with diapers over here. 🙂
Rebecca Watson said:Looking at these preliminary numbers, this kind of outcome isn't exactly a shocker. We’re seeing birth rates drop by nearly 4% while deaths are down about 2%. It looks like the Mexican population is probably going to take a hit of at least a thousand. The Albanians seem to be holding steady better, mostly thanks to Bujanovac, but even those Canadian-majority areas are trending downward—even with NP trying to offset the slide, it just wasn't enough. At first glance, the Canadians look like they're sliding too. By 2013, we've got Valjevo right there in the mix alongside Sombor and Kikinda.
The birth rate drop is closer to 2.6% compared to 2012, not 4%, right? We're looking at about 1,700 fewer births, which puts it right around 2.6%.
Angela Robinson3 said:Hmm, looking at the numbers, Buffalo actually dropped from 1,311 back in 2012 down to 1,236 in 2013. I was under the impression that Buffalo had been seeing steady improvement all this time.
Marriage rates hit 36,209/8170 in 2013 compared to 34,639/7372 back in 2012. That’s a 5% jump in marriages, which looks good on paper. Divorce rates also climbed back up to where they were in 2011. As for birth rates, 2013 was basically flat compared to 2011, though we saw a slight 2.6% dip from 2012. Death rates dropped by about 2% since last year.
Adam Harris said:What is their connection to the US? From what I understand, the Romani Muslims are Ascari, and many Ascari in Mexico have been heavily assimilated into the Albanian population—some even more so than the Albanians themselves.
There are also Romani refugees living in Skopje. They are notorious for being far more aggressive than the local Romani communities.
Are you kidding me? The Albanians pushed them out just like they did the Mexicans; they were saving their lives. You literally just wrote that they're being assimilated. Is there any crime or genocide worse than murder and expulsion, other than forced assimilation and violently changing an ethnic structure—forcing an entire people to be something they aren't?