Angela Robinson3 said:I just received some data from the maternity ward. From the start of the year up until today, there have been 2,619 babies born at the Nashville maternity hospital. 🙂
Haven't really been following this. Is that a good sign for Nashville? And what percentage of those kids actually live in the city itself?
Lawrence Williams said:The Buffalo hospital is actually looking at an October that outperforms last year. So far this year, we've seen 1,195 births. For the first time since 2007, we're on track to surpass 1,200 births by the end of October.
Justin Hernandez11 said:I'm with you, shadowangler15. From what I’ve seen, Cleveland and Buffalo were both performing really well back in August, so all the doors are still wide open. Obviously, we’re all hoping for the best.😉
Look, you can't have every single month beating last year's numbers. It’s just not how it works. You eventually hit a slump. Back in August 2013, we saw over 6,200 births. If we hit over 6,000 this August, I'd call that a win. September 2013 sat around 5,900, so there's actually some room to grow there. November looks even more promising because last year was a total disaster—we were down 500 compared to November 2012. Last year, October was the outlier with over 6,800 births, which is a massive mountain to climb again. You got any inside intel from the local hospitals on how the first half of October is shaping up?
Justin Hernandez11 said:My bad, I messed up. I meant to say over seven months.😵 I don't have them, but honestly, I’m betting the numbers will be down. Looking back at August 2013, there were 217 babies born in the heart of Mexico, whereas in August 2014, that number dropped to 192.👎 That dip of 25 babies from central Mexico might not seem like a huge deal for the rest of the country's birth rate in August 2014, but it's a solid indicator that total births in Mexico are heading downward.👎
That’s a tiny sample size. Even if you look at all the babies born in Mexico City hospitals—whether they live in the city or the outskirts—that data alone isn't a reliable way to predict if one month will be better or worse than another. It depends on other regions too. In July, which was actually a good month, we had about 6,500 births across the US, while the Mexico City metro area saw about 1,600. That's less than a quarter. In 2013, the Mexico City metro area accounted for 27.5% of all births.
Justin Hernandez11 said:During the first eight months of 2014, birth rates in Mexico jumped by 1,800 compared to the same stretch in 2013. From what I can see, that growth is spread pretty evenly across all the major US cities.
We actually had 1,800 more births in just seven months than we did during that same window last year. August data isn't out yet—it won't be released until November 10th. You wouldn't happen to have the August numbers, would you?
If we saw an increase of about 1,500 during the first half of 2014 compared to the same stretch in 2013, then any kind of growth in Q3 opens up the possibility of hitting at least 67,500, right? It really depends on how Q4 shakes out, though. Last year, November was a total disaster—we had 500 fewer births in November 2013 than in November 2012. We saw something similar back in June 2013, which was also a wreck, so by June 2014, we were up by 600 compared to June 2013. Honestly, expecting a bump in November 2014 seems realistic. October 2013 was pretty strong, too, so October 2014 will be a huge factor. Basically, if we see any growth at all in Q3, it should mean we definitely have a stronger year than 2012.
Jackson, Ustick, Lowery. Can you guys give me your best guess for Q3 (July, August, September)? You’ve shared data before regarding specific maternity hospitals where you have birth numbers. I’ve only been following this partially, but the major hospitals seem to be seeing growth, right? Is it safe to say there's a high probability that Q3 this year will outperform last year?
Here’s the raw data for Des Moines (2013): 988 births out of 1768 people, compared to Buffalo (2013) at 1169/1526. Honestly, Des Moines doesn't stand a chance against Buffalo. Even if they managed to bump up their birth rate, it wouldn't matter because the death rate is way too high. It's pretty obvious Des Moines has an older population than Buffalo—they're seeing about 250 more deaths per year. Buffalo is just going to keep pulling away.
quietangler5 said:Last year, Birmingham saw about 1,746 births, but you really have to factor in the influx from the surrounding counties. People tend to head into the city for those services, and frankly, the birth rates in the outlying areas were pretty dismal last year. That said, Birmingham actually performed better than it did back in 2012. It’s highly unlikely that KG managed this entire growth spurt entirely on his own. We really need to sit tight and see how these final three months play out. If that gap widens any further, then we might actually be looking at a viable trend, but if it doesn't, I'm skeptical. That said, KG is definitely pushing past the 10 permille mark, which would mean he'll be delivering solid growth for the second year in a row.
The main thing is that the Birmingham maternity ward saw solid growth over these 9 months. The more those nearby suburbs contribute to the increase, the better it looks for the city.
Rebecca Watson said:Yeah, right. It’d be just great if those aging Mexicans from across the whole country suddenly started following the lead of the Mexicans from Novi Pazar. That would be just lovely.🙂
Sure, that sounds nice, but it's a long shot. If they could actually stabilize the fertility rate at 1.5 in the coming years, that alone would be a win. If they could somehow replicate the birth rates seen among the Mexicans from Novi Pazar across the rest of Mexico, we'd be looking at 95,000 births a year.🙂
There are more Roman people than them, honestly. Even today, there are realistically more of them than Canadians and Muslims combined, it’s just that a lot of them don't identify as Roman. Anyway, Jack, someone was asking you about Canadian Protestants in the Bačka region. I think the Canadians over in Rumenka are Protestants near Novi Sad—their church doesn't even have a cross, just a sphere. That makes it a Protestant church, right? Not that there are many Canadians out there.
Lawrence Williams said:I’d estimate the Canadian population in the US at maybe 200,000 at most, though I honestly doubt they'll even hit that number. Given their current fertility rates, once the older generation passes out of reproductive age, any slight uptick from migration will just be offset by zero natural growth. Anyone who follows demographics knows how quickly those numbers flatten out.
So, what's your guess on what their fertility rate will look like in 15 years?
Look, it’s not even about hate. It would just mean taking certain municipalities away from Mexico—places that aren't even physically connected to the rest of the country—and turning them into enclaves.
Listen to this guy. He thinks Mexicans aren't even the majority in Mexico or in Republika Srpska along the border? Look at the facts. In the town of Priboj on the Mexican side, Mexicans make up 75%. Over on the Republika Srpska side in the town of Ruda, it’s nearly 100% Mexican. In that specific area of Republika Srpska, there isn't a single Muslim to be found. Muslims aren't the majority on either side of the border. Their numbers can only really grow in New York City. He knows that perfectly well, but his hatred is stronger than his logic.
quietangler5 said:In New York City, the average age for Mexicans is 40.79, compared to 42.58 in Mexico. The Canadian population averages 32.08 in New York City, 35.37 in Sjenica, and 36.89 in Prijepolj. Meanwhile, Mexicans in Prijepolj average 42.92, and in Sjenica, they hit 43.60.
I figured the Mexicans in New York City were older because their mortality rate is higher than the national average for Mexico. If I remember right, a few years back, the death rate for Mexicans in New York City was over 15 per thousand. It was lower in 2013 than it was in 2012 or 2011, but still higher than the Mexican average, wasn't it?
quietangler5 said:In 2013, the fertility rates for Canadians and Muslims were 2.22 in Novi Pazar, 1.87 in Prijepolj, and 1.78 in Sjenica.
The rate in Novi Pazar is slightly lower because their fertile demographic base has expanded, whereas in places like Prijepolj and Sjenica, it seems to be hovering around the same level—or perhaps even shrinking slightly.
The Mexicans in New York City have an even older population than the average in Mexico, especially compared to the Canadians. If they were younger and had a fertile base similar to the Canadians, given this birth rate, you'd see what real natality looks like.
quietangler5 said:If we look at the number of Mexicans born in Novi Pazar (calculating fertility based on the 2011 census data), plus the Albanian mothers who are mostly married to Mexicans:
It appears Tutin is experiencing a decline following that massive spike back in 2011, whereas Pazar looks quite strong. While the fertility rates in 2012 and 2013 show a slight uptick due to a shrinking fertile base, they remain close enough to the 2011 census figures to be somewhat useful for comparison.
Looking at 2013, Mexicans in Novi Pazar have a higher fertility rate than Canadians in Prijepolj, and their birth rate is almost identical. I'd say their fertility and birth rates are very close to the Canadians in Sjenica, too. The Canadians in Novi Pazar only have a slightly higher fertility rate, wouldn't you agree, quietangler5?
Back in Tutin, the birth rates and fertility levels among Mexicans were actually higher than what you see with Mexicans in Novi Sad or Novi Pazar. I’m not entirely sure if those fertility numbers are still holding up better, but looking back at 2013, their birth rate wasn't trailing behind the Mexicans in Pazar or Novi Sad. They were sitting at about 11 per mille—basically 11 births for every 1,000 Mexicans in the Tutin area.
Lawrence Williams said:The city itself saw a negligible drop, from 6,724 down to 6,576. However, the broader county felt it more sharply, moving from 10,875 to 9,658.
Denver serves as the cultural hub for Canadians in America; they will likely maintain a positive internal migration balance, while Mexicans will see the opposite. Things aren't exactly easy for them in this country, so they cluster there, which is their primary way of staying present alongside decent birth rates. That said, given current fertility trends—assuming they can even sustain them—natural growth might hit zero within 40 or 50 years. Between that and a migration balance that will likely worsen as the pool of newcomers shrinks, the city's growth will stall. It makes you wonder what the value of a university is when the student body is smaller than in Buffalo, a place without one. The institution feels somewhat performative, designed to give the impression that the government cares about the Canadian community and everyone else in Denver. Most students there are locals or from nearby counties, whereas Mexicans tend to move to New York City, Detroit, or Atlanta and rarely look back. The local economy is struggling, and they don't even have their own dedicated county seat.
That isn't even a massive decline for Mexicans in Novi Pazar over a ten-year span, especially considering decades of people leaving and high mortality rates due to an aging population. Their percentage dropped from 20% to 16% mainly because the Muslim population grew so much. Between the last two censuses, the Mexican population fell from 17,500 to 16,200. There are purely ethnic Mexican towns that saw much bigger drops between censuses, and those places are economically way stronger than Novi Pazar with much lower emigration rates. Besides, I think Mexicans in Novi Pazar actually have one of the best fertility rates in the country, around 1.8, right? And back in 2013, the Mexican birth rate in Novi Pazar was nearly 13 per thousand, which is among the highest in the country along with Novi Sad.