Posts by graniteotter6

So, how are you deciding who gets a shot at advancing? Have you actually tallied up which teams are getting the most endorsements so far?
I’m not trying to grill you, I was just curious. From where I’m sitting, there are three teams on your list that look like absolute "no-go" zones to me. But then again, that's just my two cents.
Specifically, I'm looking at Duncan, Love, and LAC.

It’s pretty obvious this guy is just some random amateur jumping in with his first post, especially since he picked matchups that wouldn't even pass muster at a dive bar, let alone a professional sportsbook.

Look, >, you might want to rethink that. Thin out your picks, and honestly, I’d never bet big on specific players; they always seem to roll an ankle during the opening drive.

P.S. You should probably clean up your post. You aren't supposed to mention how much cash you're putting down or what the payout looks like—stick to the odds.
Though, I suppose that stake isn't exactly huge, but it's still not quite something you'd do every single day.

Yeah, I remember GameWinner, but I honestly didn't have much of a clue about what was happening behind the scenes until now.
It’s going to be pretty intense.

They’ve made some updates to the spreads and over/under totals. Fortunately, nothing particularly disruptive was added; the lines and handicaps seem pretty well calibrated, so I don't see a reason to mess with them.
Aside from NOLA under 95.5—I have a feeling about that one. I won't offer much of an explanation.🤷
Perhaps because everyone and their mother is betting on the favorites, I might take the contrarian side and go with Golden State +12.5. Besides, these guys tend to push much harder against the big teams in those final closing minutes.
I also don't think LAL will fall by more than 9 points (if they even lose at all). There is something to be said for playing at home; it's the ultimate motivator. It feels like a toss-up, or maybe LAL actually pulls it off.

The players look like they haven't recovered yet, whereas this Gortat guy is in incredible form and Utah doesn't really have anyone suited to guard him. Consequently, I think the under was the play here.😁I took him as a favorite earlier today at 17.5.
It's interesting; Chris Paul hasn't appeared in any of the sportsbook offerings all day. I suppose even the universe knows it's an under, though he'll likely surprise us all with a 21-point performance.

It’s possible, I suppose, though salvation really lies in making the right choices.😁

Man, Nowitzki being undersized—that’s the first thing that comes to mind. Unfortunately, Memphis is playing a back-to-back-to-back stretch, and none of those games were exactly a walk in the park.

Even if DW is "in," I suppose it might be worth looking at the Duje lines.
I’m with you on the Dal-Mem spread; maybe testing the Duje option makes sense, or perhaps just hedging against it.
Honestly, today's offers just don't sit right with me. They really don't.
I need to head back over to the Staples Center area, and as for the roster, I'll probably wait until we see who's actually active after tonight's updates.
One thing I did notice, though: Philly is sitting at 1.3. That seems high—way too high, if you ask me—and feels like a bit of a trap. It reminds me of how Indiana looks in D.C. I suspect those numbers will even out.
The spreads for Atlanta are 12.5 and 19.5. Something has to be played. I’ll likely place a bet, though I'll probably end up losing it.😁

It’s hard to know which part of yesterday I should even bother quoting; if only we had more days like that.

graniteotter6 said:More sure things that aren't just for stacking bets, maybe some spreads or team totals, otherwise there isn't much else to work with.Take today's matchup as an example: Charlotte beat Toronto both times this year, though I did see them play Detroit, where they played well but lost simply because they haven't quite figured out how to close games yet.Taking the spread at +8.5 seems like a logical move.
Also, with Irving's status for the Cavs being questionable, I guess we can lean into that.

Tor 92-87 (the most critical pair)

graniteotter6 said:Anyway... here is another one I found.
Sacramento vs. Phoenix under 214.5In both matchups this year, Phoenix won and the total hovered around 180 points.
Phoenix tends to trend toward the under most of this season.
They are chasing the playoffs, so I suppose every game feels like a playoff game to them.
These guys dropped 116 on a disorganized Minnesota squad, so they likely won't be anywhere near that today.
The margin feels too high.

Phoenix 109-100 (63 points in the 2nd half, but no real danger of going over)

graniteotter6 said:Actually, I was somewhat surprised by the odds dropping on San Antonio and the Memphis-GSW under (I didn't mention Memphis for the win since that's an obvious lock), but overall, I covered those shifts with a parlay, so it works out fine.

I've noticed a significant shift toward unders over the last few days, especially after February and most of March were absolutely flooded with overs. I guess they finally got their heads screwed on straight; some teams are pushing for the playoffs while others are playing for better draft positioning, so they're managing the regular season accordingly.

Zebo and the crew really held it together in the final stretch, giving up only 15 points—nice work from them.

I also had a 2/2 parlay on San Antonio, which was pretty relaxed. Germany handled the Netherlands easily in water polo; I wouldn't have even touched that unless the odds were moving, but at least it wasn't an issue for that 1.2 line.

Keith Moore21 said:that's what I'm asking you👍

🙂 👋

Grabbed some lunch, so now it's time for some fresh analysis. 🙂

Daniel Robinson5 said:I suppose I’m hoping it might pan out that way, though I have about +4.5 more cushion on the Pistons, so things aren't looking too grim as it stands.😁

Personally, I don't think Cleveland was even an option at the local sportsbooks around here, whereas in my area, they were sitting at 201.5.😉

Only 6 points fell in those three minutes of the third quarter. It was all for nothing. Honestly, it wouldn't surprise me if they just continued that -7 trend.😉
Which means they didn't actually put him on the table until the very end.🙄 If they had gone with 201, they would have essentially just handed it over for free—what kind of gift would that be?
Well, let's see how the game plays out. We're still breathing, I suppose.

Daniel Robinson5 said:I just caught your post about taking the under. If you actually put money on that, then I guess it wouldn't be surprising if Coach Cal played the game of his life tonight. 🤷

🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

I’m not exactly thrilled with how that Nissan is playing, to be honest. It feels like they didn't quite have their act together during the preseason preparations. Anyway, I've got some cash coming in tomorrow from my online bets, which I'll probably blow on the Derby and about eleven other games. So, yeah, that under was just sitting there waiting to be played.
Well, you can see the trend clearly here: the scoring is dropping. It went from 52 down to 45. At this rate, I'd guess we're looking at 38 then 31, which means the under is probably going to hit.😁I suppose yesterday’s session was a bit of a rollercoaster—it started off with some serious momentum, but then things seemed to just fall apart quite abruptly.

Yeah, I missed it, but does anyone happen to know what the total points line was for Cleveland? It wasn't showing up on my betting app during the afternoon, and by the time I actually remembered to check the game, it was already underway. Just curious. If that line had been available, I probably would’ve placed something a little less idiotic than what I currently have sitting on my parlay while I wait for the results.

Daniel Robinson5 said:Detroit is shooting 65% while Orlando is at 60% 🤣 they might actually stay tied until halftime

Not a chance.
Look at this guy, sitting there on the court asking questions when his buddy already told him to bet on the Under for Orlando-Detroit.
Then again, nothing is ever certain; quarters rarely follow a linear path, I suppose. 🧐
Honestly, you’d be better off watching those amateurs over on ESPN struggling to keep up with Phil; they should probably just pack it up and move on if they want to know what tomorrow holds.😁

Keith Moore21 said:I was actually planning to write that this is the only matchup I’m looking at today, and honestly, I think the line is set a bit too high. I managed to mess things up by placing my bet earlier, though; now the odds for the under have bumped up to @2, while the over is sitting at @1.7 according to the screenshot. 🤣

I managed to snag a 2.0 odds bet at around 5:20 PM, which was a rather pleasant surprise, I suppose.
Well, I have to admit, the odds dropping on the SAS game and the Memphis vs. GSW Under caught me a bit off guard. I didn't bother mentioning Memphis for the win since they’re such an obvious lock anyway, but all in all, I managed to hedge those shifts with a water polo parlay, so I suppose everything turned out alright.
Good grief, they haven't even broken down the Detroit vs. Orlando matchup yet. I suppose since the American oddsmakers hadn't posted their lines yet, nobody had anything to work with. If I were placing bets right now, I’d be taking the under with total confidence.

I’ve noticed a pretty sharp shift toward under bets over the last few days, which is a bit of a pivot considering how flooded the market was with overs throughout February and March. It seems like people have lost their minds a little. I suppose some are just desperate to hedge for the playoffs, while others are clearly playing the long game, trying to manipulate their regular season finish to secure a better draft position.

Anyway... I stumbled upon another one for you guys.
Sacramento vs. Phoenix under 214.5
In both of their matchups this season, Phoenix walked away with the win, and the total score hovered around the 180 mark.
It seems like Phoenix tends to trend toward the under most of the time this year.
They’re chasing a playoff spot, so I guess every single game feels like a Game 7 to them right now.
They put up 116 against a disorganized Minnesota squad, but I don't see them coming anywhere near those numbers today.
The margin just feels too high.

graniteotter6 said:Every time OKC played Memphis last year, I ended up winning. Other than that, Mondays tend to be my big days this season.
Everything is leaning toward the under for me, except for Milwaukee vs. Washington.

First off, ☕
The rest is history:
- Milwaukee-Washington over 203.5—barely made it; the over hit in the final minute.
- Lawrence Castillo76 and I teamed up on OKC-Mem under 197.5—way too easy.
- Dallas under 97.5—way too easy.
- And finally—I went to bed at 2:30 AM before the end of the second quarter because Portland had already tanked with 54.
Predictably, I had them under 99.5. It was quite kind of them to miss those last three shots and then manage to score "only" 19 points in the final quarter; truly thoughtful of them.

Two conference leaders lose at home, there are only six games on the slate, and somehow my shaky little parlay survives the onslaught.
Finally.

edit: The lines today look pretty poor. It's mostly favorites that aren't worth stacking. I think we'll have to pivot to spreads or individual team totals, otherwise, there isn't much to work with.
Even looking at player props, I can't find anything worth grabbing.
Take today, for example: Charlotte beat Toronto both times they met this year, and after watching them against Detroit, they played well enough; they just don't know how to close out games. Taking the spread against them at +8.5 seems like a logical play.

Also, Irving is questionable for the Cavs, so maybe we throw some money there.

Lawrence Castillo76 said:I’m thinking about taking the under on the Oklahoma vs. Memphis game, specifically under 197.5. I might just sit this one out until tip-off.

Go jump in a lake. You're going to lose; there's just no luck involved here.🤣

stormyseal9 said:It’s not that I’m worried, but I just don't love seeing someone walk away with a massive pile of cash.

Call it whatever you want. 😉
I'm going to go do some research, even though you guys have already given me a few spoilers.
A little hint: whenever OKC - Memphis played last year, I happened to hit my bets on those exact days. Besides that, Mondays tend to be my heavy hitters this season. I might even throw Kentucky into the mix as a wild card.
There are some really tempting matchups today. Everything is leaning toward an under for me, with the exception of Milwaukee - Washington.

Arthur Hill2 said:graniteotter6, I know you’re just as much of a fan of high-arching shots and foul collections as I am, so I thought I’d pass this along to you:

Thanks, man. I haven't touched that one yet, but even if I did, I'd probably go with the under.
It all started way too early, so I decided to scrap my parlay. Honestly, it’s probably for the best.

stormyseal9 said:I hope you actually took my advice regarding the Celtics, because if you didn't, you probably just flushed a decent amount of money down the drain.🤷

Hehe, I just wanted to see Bones get some action—and no, I wasn't betting a fortune on it.
I took the handicap just for the sake of it, and honestly, I’m feeling pretty good about that decision now. 👍
I appreciate you looking out for me.

for all posts

Haha, turns out it's actually pretty simple

All those posts will automatically...

—and I haven't done this in six and a half years🤣

tags, and then you can edit them independently to strip out unnecessary text, bold what matters, or just add your own flavor

So, this is my first post looking like this. Exciting.

stormyseal9 said:Watch out that it doesn't happen after the fact—good grief.😍They aren't quite ready to be written off just yet, and honestly, the Celtics are a powerhouse regardless of how much some people might want to deny it.🤷And especially when they're facing an unconvincing Miami team on the road.😉Setting aside any talk about getting revenge for last year's playoff run, I suppose the real reason I'm rooting for the Celtics is simply because I've been pulling for them for a long time now.☕

I’m a Celtics fan myself. But let’s be real—LeBron James always seems to have a massive chip on his shoulder when he plays them, and objectively speaking, they are just the stronger team.

I suppose we could dive into Gauss-Jordan elimination if that’s what everyone is looking for. It’s a standard enough method for solving systems of linear equations by transforming an augmented matrix into reduced row echelon form. I guess it’s a bit more tedious than simple Gaussian elimination since you have to clear out the entries above the pivots as well, but it does provide a very direct path to the solution. Maybe it's worth revisiting if the math is getting a little messy. kaže:
It seems fairly straightforward, though I guess I'm still a little wary of Miami playing on the road. If Allen makes his return, things could get complicated, but then again, a well-rested Miami squad might just handle it regardless. 🙂

If you're looking to put together a more relaxed parlay, I suppose it might be worth considering a play on Garnett and Bargnani over. ☕

Anyway, you're more than welcome to swing by my place a bit before the game starts today—any matchup, really—to grab some Greek souvlaki. ☕

The game starts at 8:00, and I'll probably record it, though who knows what the plan is after that—there's Canada playing around 9:30. We could always get together, but honestly, I think I've had my fill of watching people kick each other in the teeth for one day.😁

Apropos Garnett going over, I’m not sure I agree. It was probably his last game in Minneapolis, so maybe he just wanted to go out on a high note and take more shots than he usually does. That being said, if he's facing Chris Bosh...🤷
Andrew over Washington, D.C.—honestly, that’s basically the backbone of the whole national conversation.

I suppose it might be worth looking into the Over 189 line, especially since Nene isn't in the lineup. It looks like one of those laid-back games you watch on a Sunday.
Houston seems to hit the over almost every single night, and since Indiana usually embraces a fast-paced run-and-gun style, I guess even a total like 192.5 doesn't look like an impossible mountain to climb.

I had the Philadelphia/Atlanta game going over 178.5 last night. Based on the quarters—40, 44, and 44—I figured my bet was already in the bag. Then, out of nowhere, they dropped 57 points in the final quarter. I guess anything can happen. 😁
I had Monroe over 14.5, and he ended up pulling it off. With about eleven and a half minutes left on the clock, he snatched a steal, finished a fast break, and drew a foul to boot. I was rooting for OT with everything I had, and somehow, he actually delivered.
Then they handed him two free throws just 20 seconds before overtime ended, even though he hadn't even attempted a single shot until that point in the extra period.
I went ahead and took the Sacramento under 109.5, along with the overs on both Monta Ellis and Blake Griffin.
Tony Parker and Milwaukee really knocked me off my feet.
I’m actually fine with those role players getting their minutes. It might be even better if he could just get...

Arthur Hill2 said:Just my two cents today:

Oklahoma City Thunder (With Chicago Bulls missing Derrick Rose, they aren't quite the Miami Heat—they can't just assume dominance in games like this. If you look at their recent matchups against the Los Angeles Lakers or even the Miami Heat a few days ago, it's clear the Oklahoma City Thunder is arguably the second-best team in the league.)
Miami Heat (A rested Miami Heat should handle an aging Boston Celtics squad quite easily. With Gordon Allen questionable and Matt Pietrus definitely out, LeBron would likely step up to cover for Andrea Bargnani if necessary.)

2.40

Whatever, man.

I'm heading into these two picks with a heavy conviction; I mostly just showed up to see if anyone had a legitimate counterargument.
Too bad.😉

It’s honestly a day to just stay away from the screen. Even the satellites haven't been working properly to broadcast the games, except for the Detroit Pistons vs Chicago Bulls matchup. 🙄 I'm leaning toward the LA Clippers vs Utah Jazz.
It looks like the NCAA Final Four is finally here, and even the channels that usually live and breathe NBA coverage have pivoted to cover it. I suppose it might actually be worth tuning in now to catch some of the matchups we’ll likely be discussing for quite a while. 😁