Posts by graniteotter6

I’ve been noticing a bit of a trend lately: the "major" upsets seem to be drying up. For instance, last night’s loss by the Miami Heat to the Boston Celtics wasn't really an upset; it was just two heavyweights going at it where anything can happen, and we've seen plenty of those matchups recently.
I suppose I should make an exception for the Orlando Magic, though—they’re playing in a league of their own right now.

Following that logic, I’m stepping up my involvement today with four picks that I consider to be the most reliable:

The Sixers on the road against the Raptors. Philly basically had a day off during yesterday's blowout, and with Bargnani looking questionable, even if he plays, he isn't exactly a game-changer.
The Grizzlies. They’re on a roll, confidence is through the roof, and their defense is so stifling that they limit opponents to just one or two scoring options before shutting them down completely. We saw much stronger teams like Dallas, the Clippers, and Miami fall apart under similar pressure.
Spurs over Lakers. The Lakers are looking a bit lost, while San Antonio rested some key players recently. Maybe the odds are just a little too generous here.
The Nuggets. Minnesota seems to be regressing, which reminds me quite a bit of how Charlotte has been struggling out East.

Alright, let's hear it—what are your thoughts?

The line is sitting at 6.5.0.4 by quarters, so I suppose you might as well take the over on 16.5.😂

The score was 103-90 for the Clippers and Heat
Not quite enough, I guess.

Well, at least my analysis is flawless today; when I lose, I lose spectacularly.

Arthur Hill2 said:Update on Rose🙂. C. Johnson @KCJHoop reports
D-Rose's ankle looks significantly better today. He’s already warming up, and Thibodeau mentioned he's a game-time decision. #Bulls

😂 This is what happens when those subliminal messages finally surface. I knew you had a soft spot for that Twitter guy.
On topic—I took Bos-Miami over 183.5. Seems solid.
If you try to go over against Miami, you're asking for trouble.
Charlotte and Cleveland have me a bit worried, though; hopefully they pull it together.
I'll just put Orlando under 100.5 and call it a day. 👏

Well, looks like the mods have finally cracked down. Fine by me—from here on out, let's keep things strictly professional. 😁
Here’s one pick from that special collection of graniteotter6’s losers that nobody actually wants:
Cleveland vs. Charlotte, Over 192.5
It feels like a comfortable line that the high-flying young guys in Cleveland can easily clear. If the big city squad can drop 113 on Charlotte, these guys can surely hit 114. Meanwhile, Charlotte might just settle for 79.
Earlier this season, we saw scores of 216 and 196.
Charlotte basically surrendered.
Do you need more?

On a side note regarding the Bam Adebayo under, I recall that back when they played Memphis, he accounted for about 6 of Miami's first few baskets. He didn't manage to break 16 then. Something similar could happen tonight, so I’m tossing him into my scrap pile too.

Daniel Robinson5 said:If Irving isn't in the lineup against Cleveland tonight, I guess we might as well bet on Jamison over and Carmelo over for a higher payout. 🙂

Jamison went overboard the other night, so I suppose he'll be laying low for a little while.😁
So, Melo is facing off against Kikoff for the second straight game while he's playing like he's absolutely on fire? I guess we'll see if this streak actually holds up. 🙂

Am I on Lawrence Castillo76's ignore list, or what? 😂

Lawrence Castillo76 said:And another thing—why on earth is this being played in Chicago at 3:30 PM? I don't think I've ever seen anything quite that ridiculous in my life.

Hmm.
It wasn't actually all that long ago.

wiredcanyon39 said:Adding this to the mix:
Deng over 15.5 at 1.85
5/10
It’s unlikely Rose will suit up, but even if he does, Kicks has one of the most obnoxious defenses in the league. Deng usually performs well at Madison Square Garden and if Rose isn't there, it just means more shots for him.

I’m completely on board with the Luol pick. Honestly, after reading stormyseal9's breakdown and doing some of my own mental gymnastics, I’m taking that pair regardless of whether Rose plays or decides to hog the ball from everyone else.

Hey wiredcanyon39, just a heads-up—this game is being played in Chicago, not New York. I hope that doesn't change your take on this duo.

P.S. I tried copying a play from Lin last night for the first time, and let me tell you, you can't escape the curse: "May you ever be cursed with someone copying your picks!"

I suppose I should mention that the under depends entirely on how Toronto performs. 🙂
If Kleiza hits 18, you'll see that reflected in the score immediately.

On unrelated matters:
Four days in a row now, and the streak continues...

Dana Baker2 said:I mean, they probably won't even let those 1.6 odds stay live for long before they scrap them.🙂

Actually, I suspect they’ve already preemptively wiped out everything at 1.6—both the overs and the unders—simply because this guy is hitting his marks way too consistently.👍

Thanks for the heads-up, Edward Brown4. In the meantime, I've decided to pull the plug on that idea and actually wrote out my reasoning for why.

Devin Harris put up 18 points and dished out six assists, though he seemed to have a bit of a hard time containing Parker.

"He’s just a difficult matchup," Harris admitted. "The way he attacks the lane and draws fouls makes him a nightmare to defend. San Antonio runs some really solid sets to get him open, and I suppose there's a reason he's an All-Star, but we'll have our chance at a rematch tomorrow."

That might be optimistic. When asked whether the full roster would be traveling to Salt Lake City, Popovich simply replied, "That's none of your business."

Here's my take. We should probably keep a very close eye on this one.

Aaron Ross7 said:A quick tangent here, but I could use some help...
Does anyone happen to know what time the Chase branches close today?

As if this were just any other Tuesday. They should be open until 8.

Dana Baker2 said:I mean, I know what's going on, but I suppose they might just throw one against the wall to see if it sticks.😁
Personally, my first instinct for the Indiana vs. Toronto matchup is to lean toward the under. I guess there’s some news floating around that Bargnani might be sitting this one out, which could change things, but I'm still leaning that way. What's your take on it?
The spread for the Milwaukee vs. OKC game seems a bit too wide to me. The Bucks have been struggling quite a bit on the defensive end lately, and Westbrook hasn't exactly been playing his best basketball recently either. I suspect Oklahoma might actually push back against them today. If I had to make a call, I’d probably lean toward taking the Bucks under. 🤷 I highly doubt we'll see Ilyasova making any significant moves against Ibaka anytime soon. 🙂

Let's take this one step at a time:
Don't count on some lazy bet like, "they'll probably choke eventually." Team momentum is a serious force, and I don't play around by just sitting back and waiting for them to fall apart. I'm not interested in that whole "it's coming, it's coming" mindset.
Indiana vs. Toronto... hmm. I suppose looking at Indiana lately, they seem to have joined that little club of teams like Orlando, Phoenix, and the Clippers—basically, that group of squads that just can't seem to get it together.
Both of this year's five-point spreads for India look like massive overestimates to me; I suspect we’re looking at some seriously inflated unders.🤷
I probably shouldn't get too involved here, though that 99.5 line for Indiana feels like a bit of a setup to bait people into taking the over. It seems like they're eyeing a 90-point performance from the Pacers, which makes me lean toward the under. As for Toronto—and whether or not Andrea plays—if the line were sitting at 95.5, I’d feel much more comfortable betting the under. But with it at 89.5, the sportsbooks have essentially targeted the exact heart of the uncertainty. You could easily see one of those outlier high-scoring games. Take yesterday, for instance; Kleiza was practically invisible, which allowed the other side to push past 70 points quite easily. DeRozan and Calderon can be incredibly dangerous once they find their rhythm, so in my view, whether Indiana hits the under depends entirely on how Toronto performs.
If you’re looking at the OKC Thunder, don't go thinking Ersan is the only one putting points on the board. I guess he isn't exactly flying solo out there.
I suppose I have to agree—104.5 seems like a bit of an overkill for Mil.👍 After cruising through a stretch of subpar opponents they handled with zero effort, I suspect today might be a bit of a reality check. They’ll likely find themselves banging their heads against a brick wall.

I suppose Edith Piaf finally folded under the pressure of the UT Austin crowd. 🤣
I suppose we should probably watch out for those sneaky, undercover hands playing at Uth. 🤣
Get this: the over hit for Utah at 103.5, while at that exact same moment, the under was dropping for San Antonio at 105.5.🤣
Why the sudden shift? I guess everyone is just piling onto the under, assuming that because Timmy isn't playing, the outcome is already a foregone conclusion. Or maybe this is just some preemptive collapse triggered by our little debate earlier.
Now, this second scenario is what really gets me thinking. We’re looking at UTEP finishing with 104 points while SAS fails to hit the 106 mark. I guess I've just never seen anything quite like it—one side cratering while the other manages to climb. It feels a bit off, if you ask me.

The bottom line? I’ll take the two wins and call it a day; let’s just move on from the total point count. Honestly, I might even consider that 1.9 margin a little Easter gift to myself.

A word of advice:
Don't get too hung up on the under in Utah. SAS plays at a pace that tends to break opponents pretty quickly; they're riding a 12-game win streak, and the matchup in Utah seems to suit them perfectly, so I'd lean toward the over there. Personally, I wouldn't mess around with an under if I were you. It's probably best to just leave it alone.
Mil-OKC under 210 sounds like a winner to me. 😍
Let's slow down a bit; we still need to see if any news drops regarding players sitting out.
Wade really screwed me over last night because I had to head out of the house around 6:00 to place my bets. I had Miami over 101, which I thought would be an easy one to clear.

graniteotter6 said:Who actually called that Lee vs. Nowitzki matchup? I guess it was supposed to be a highlight reel, but honestly, that shot looked easier than anything else we've seen all night. At this rate, he probably won't even bother coming back into the game.

Ever since that Boozer-Garnett showdown at 12:12, I think I might have finally found my true calling.

Look, here’s the deal: if you happen to spot any "X or S" type matchups popping up on the online sportsbooks, feel free to drop them here and ask for my take. I suspect that if you just follow whatever I say and bet on the draw, you might actually end up making some decent money. Maybe.

What’s the threshold for freshmen to get passed over? Is it 21?
I didn't play today; I just didn't have the heart for it.
I'm mostly laying low today, anyway.
Once Papa Bear finishes you off with that buzzer beater, there isn't much left to say.
That Lee vs. Nowitzki duel—whoever called that, I guess they've never seen a shot made easier, but this guy isn't even coming back into the game.

edit: actually, he is. There he goes, running around, but it's probably too little, too late for the season.

As soon as I saw yesterday's spread, where one team was the heavy favorite by a massive margin (looks like OKC)
and there were TEN different picks sitting in that 1.10 to 1.50 range, I knew pretty much immediately it was going to be a disaster.
I probably would have doubled down on some unders—specifically looking at Josh Hart's scoring being low, similar to what we saw with Melo, or Denver vs. Golden State going under 210, or even GSW covering the spread. Especially since Dallas failed to hit even 99 points despite overtime. But I couldn't pull the trigger because my irrational belief in an OKC victory completely wrecked two of my tickets. Even the under 200 didn't land because of those 11 points scored in the final 16 seconds.🙂
I was actually planning on placing a last-minute recovery bet on Houston vs. LA with all the live overs, but I decided against it...

The slate today looks decent, though. I might have something here. :trljaruke:

1 - Philly to beat Orlando? No way.😁 I mean, it's Orlando.
2 - Indiana fails to beat Boston? They will. Honestly, the odds make it feel like a gift.
3 - Denver vs. GSW under 208? Over.

Daniel Robinson5 said:Duško Ivanović is deciding whether to go all in ☕

I can see that myself; a total blowout might be the only thing that saves us (just look at what Melo did last night).
Don't try splitting this game across two different slips—I'll probably end up being the one who calls the right plays again. I'm looking at Indiana under 98.5 and Duja on OKC. There, I’ll give myself a round of applause.
A correction was necessary, I suppose. He isn't exactly playing out of his mind lately either, so this series should wrap up tonight. 😢
Honestly... if nothing in the current lineup catches my eye immediately, I think it's better to just sit this one out.

The machine is slowly finding its rhythm; nothing surprising there. They aren't the Orlando Magic or the Boston Celtics, after all—they won't just fall apart overnight.

All six of Miami's players are total busts, honestly. Great.🤣