Posts by graniteotter6

Arthur Hill2 said:My apologies—it seems whatever I throw into my analysis ends up being wrong. 🙂

Well... honestly, there’s no need for an apology. We’re all just trying our best here.
Besides, we’ve all been getting hammered the last two days regardless of what we bet on.

Aaron Stewart said:I don't know, man. I'm just waiting to see what the pros think. I'm wondering if this game could actually go over. I know Chicago doesn't score much, but Orlando puts up plenty.

Orlando puts up plenty? They scored 84 against Charlotte and 92 against Toronto in their last two games.
Chicago doesn't score much? They put up 106 against Milwaukee and 92 against Indiana in their last two.
Maybe give it a little more thought.

Adam Williams2 said:Hey, can someone please walk me through this? The way it’s set up in the sportsbook is confusing, and I always seem to screw up these spreads and totals...

+7.5 / New Jersey vs. LA Clippers, Thurs, 2:00 AM | 1.85 | 1.85

So, if I take the two, that's what I'm doing, right? 🤷

I know it's a pretty amateur question, but last time I tried this, I ended up losing my shirt because I misread the line. I'd rather ask and look silly than just be wrong. 😬

If you're copying the spread pick, then yes, you're taking the two. That means New Jersey gets 7.5 points added to their total. Essentially, you and the original poster are betting that the Clippers won't win by more than 7 points—meaning they need to cover that 7.5 margin.

Out of yesterday's six games, we saw five outright upsets based on the betting lines.
I managed to navigate my way through that mess with one small parlay intact, which I suppose is a decent enough ego boost.
I’m not feeling particularly optimistic about today’s slate, even if there are thirteen games scheduled.

🙂🙂🙂

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Hmm... my New Year's Eve passed by without much fanfare.
No real reason to celebrate, though—my bank account was looking pretty empty.🙂
I might just hang myself after the festivities. And then, perhaps, myself right after that.

Well, you might as well show us your betting slip while you're at it, ☕
I suppose I missed my shot at the overtime.

🤣🤣

The way my grandmother stares at her foot... I suspect she’s already drafted a multi-million dollar class-action lawsuit in her head.

He only had one foul out in seven seasons—honestly, he really found his rhythm there.

Kobe 24, LeBron James 23... does anyone actually remember someone going head-to-head with them? And if so, whose side were you on?
The whole thing is basically a crowd, but my sponsor is broke because Katania absolutely wrecked three of my parlays. I guess there are bigger losers out there than me.

ruggedgull32 said:It’s possible that Ginobili might get a few minutes of playing time tonight...🤷

Edit:
LeBron James can't even sink a shot in a swimming pool tonight, and don't even get me started on Gasol. I suppose graniteotter6 might be having a good laugh at our expense again, considering how much of a public betting liability LeBron has become lately.

There’s no way I’m laughing at this; honestly, I wasn't even laughing last night.
If you look back at my posts from earlier this afternoon, you'll see that one of the picks I was actually considering playing was LeBron James over.😉 And honestly, looking at the matchup between the Lakers and the Heat, I suppose I’m just handing over even more material for everyone to laugh at. 😁
I'm just sitting here putting together my first parlay of the day. Unfortunately, things have gotten a little complicated on my end, so I think I'm going to scrap the ABCD system—some unexpected stuff started popping up and threw a wrench in my plans. I guess even the local news might get caught up in the chaos now.

Joshua Gonzalez33 said:Believe me, I have no idea why I even quoted you. 😁

charisma apropo ☕

Regarding the analysis, like I mentioned before, I’m certainly no expert. I don't spend all my time obsessively following every single update; instead, I mostly just lean on the raw numbers, the stats, and current form. There isn't much point in me trying to over-explain the data—everyone can see the numbers for themselves.
I’m just drifting along in the same boat as everyone else here, occasionally placing bets so ridiculous I almost feel too embarrassed to even mention them.
It’s nice to hang out here, I suppose. At the end of the day, we're all stuck in the same mess, staring at a wall of options and grabbing whatever we can reach—which usually ends up being the stuff we didn't even want in the first place. 😁

Bajnum and Pau Gasol, how are these guys supposed to pull through if Kobe goes on a rampage?! 🤷
LeBron is definitely going over, he's got a hell of a week ahead.
The matchups look solid. The odds in the main market are pretty strong; I don't see anything lower than 1.2 or 1.3.

🙏

I won't bother listing out all the specific matchups—it's probably better if I just explain the system instead.

We’re testing out this AB CD ABCD system during today's practice run.

Moving on to the actual picks: I know the Miami vs LA Lakers game is on the schedule, and that's where my attention is. I'm looking at the over on points there. If they set the line anything under 190—say, 189.5—I’m taking it. Showtime usually delivers in that city, provided they aren't playing against a team like the Charlotte Hornets, in which case I'd probably pass.

@Keith Moore21/">@@Keith Moore21 - everything looks good for those five.

@wiredcanyon39 I know you were flying solo on that last one, so naturally, here is 👍
"Let's just move on," I tell myself.

@noh over 87 fans - look at what I mean, all day long, with this logic that keeps dragging us all down?! (Though, admittedly, I didn't put it on my slip)

I wasn't exactly expecting this to be resolved so quickly myself, but oh well, let's move on. We're starting to drift into the more nonsensical part of the ticket.

He’s just moving right past them. He’s sitting at 14 and it doesn't even look like he's breaking a sweat, though he's only taken two shots and made three out of four. I guess we have to wonder why he's only hitting one of two free throws now. 🙂
Only 4 left.

Jonathan Young29 said:It isn't about having guts; it's just common sense. If everything points toward the over, why on earth would you bet the under?

True, but plenty of times when we've played the "common sense" route, things have gone south instead.

Lawrence Castillo76 said:I see Kyrie Irving is playing tonight, so I think I'll pass on Al Jamison. It wouldn't surprise me if he goes under.

Well, now you've gone and spooked him.

Keith Moore21 said:Al Jamison is almost at the over by the end of the first quarter (15).🤣

Now we're at halftime with 19, so the over hit—which is great news for all of us. No need to go crazy here, since I calmly took him over. Easy money, thanks.

wiredcanyon39 said:John Wall is at 11 now, so he should hit the over before the game ends.

The margin is tight, so he won't be heading to the bench. He's shooting 4-for-10; it shouldn't be too much trouble for him to take another 10 shots and sink four more.
3 if he makes at least one free throw.

First off, I went ahead and placed some bets without even reading your takes. I put money on John Wall and Al Jamison, along with a few other random hunches that are probably just nonsense.
It actually worried me that Russell Westbrook wasn't mentioned as a player to watch, so I skipped the Oklahoma City Thunder spread. It felt like a very logical pick, really, but... well, you know how it goes.

Roger Phillips said:Al Jamison over

He’s cleared this line in 10 of his last 13 games, so I suppose it's reasonable to expect him to do it again tonight against a Washington Wizards defense that isn't exactly elite. He's been averaging 21.4 points over those last 13 outings. Last night against the Chicago Bulls, he cleared the line in just 30 minutes—which is actually less than his usual playing time. Plus, since Kyrie Irving is dealing with an illness and his status is questionable, if he does play, he likely won't be at 100%. That just puts even more pressure on Al Jamison to carry the load.
🤷

Rather than analyzing the picks themselves, I think I'll analyze this specific post instead. I hope my colleague doesn't take offense; I mean no harm.
I picked this one because it perfectly summarizes the core issue here:

I ended up betting on Al Jamison myself, and the worst part is, everyone is following suit. (I think a few naive souls also took Zidarić; it's pretty obvious there's plenty of ammunition to support his over).
Logic seems to point us in this direction.
The post is straightforward, well-reasoned, and everything feels quite logical. It's basically saying: "Here, take this, play it, the money is sitting right there."
But we all know that logic has very little to do with gambling.
Then nighttime rolls around, Al Jamison goes nowhere, and by morning, we're all left crying and performing the walk of shame.

The real question is: WHO HAS THE GUTS TO SINGLE OUT THE UNDER? (The caps are just for emphasis, I'm not shouting)

I’m certainly not seeing any reason to get overly excited about the current offerings.
I think I’ll take today off; I’ll let them figure out how to breathe again after the All-Star break.
The only one worth looking at for me is Klay Thompson; everything else looks pretty uninspiring.
Maybe there’s some kind of pattern with those who didn't play in the All-Star game, though I guess we'll see.

Heh, well, look at that. Unbelievable.
The second quarter absolutely destroyed us. We managed a decent enough 67 in the first, then suddenly we're sitting at 90. 🤦🙂
Why does it feel like we just play the exact same way every single time? 🤷

So, what are we waiting for?
Let's just get these bets in and hope my wife doesn't give me that look during the game. 😁

edit: damn, the over just dropped to 1.7, please don't do this to me 🤣