The line is sitting at 283.5, so I guess we're hoping they don't just lose their minds and go over? They went over last year, which probably explains why the limit is set this high. 🤷 For a few years leading up to that, everything was a solid under. My only real hesitation is that the starting lineup is identical to last season. That said, the bench doesn't exactly inspire much confidence for an over—especially the Eastern Conference squad. That’s why I’m passing on the East at 1.7 and sticking with this under instead.
Boš over - he needed about 29 minutes on the court gasol over - 29 minutes Atlanta + 8.5 - easy enough NY +15.5 - barely made it
6.45 odds I suppose it’s just karma that I didn't show up here yesterday to write a bit more detailed analysis.🙂 Unfortunately, I can't even write it all out now; maybe someone else will take the liberty of summarizing. Whatever, it’s probably better this way. At least the post ended up shorter, which might make surviving three days without betting on the NBA a little easier.
That said, it's time for some fresh analysis, even though Monday feels like "D-Day" for me this season (either I win big or I’m basically toast).
Here is what caught my eye today:
There are three spreads here that look way too wide—or at least generous—with the moneyline sitting around 1.30 if they haven't shifted yet. Edit: they haven't. 😁 Miami -20.5 - Both teams had a rest day yesterday. Sacramento is wrapping up their road trip, and after one more game where the Heat likely blow them out and start closing the gap, this seems like the only viable play. Also, the over on 203.5 looks likely; when it hits 57-49 at halftime, you can thank me later.
Indiana -17.5 - New Orleans can definitely cause trouble against teams like this. This season, I've mostly been avoiding both Indiana and Philly because they feel a bit mediocre to me, whereas New Orleans doesn't seem to be in bad shape—they actually put up a decent fight in the second half against Oklahoma City last night.
Portland -10.5 - This isn't just a high spread; it's practically a gift.
One should probably be cautious regarding Tony Parker's current form, much like being careful with the over on 91 for the Spurs. Given this heavy schedule, there's a chance for a sluggish performance, so I might even consider an under on the total score here. However, a matchup in the 92-85 range seems plausible, making the contra-handicap almost a sure thing.
It’s decent news for the Luigi Gallinari over, though I suppose it’s a bit of a double-edged sword now; the defense might actually step up their game because of it.
graniteotter6 said:So, looking at the Miami Heat schedule today, I might even consider upping my stake. Also, 96.5 for the LA Lakers seems way too high to me... Last year, the OKC Thunder really struggled against Meg, but this year feels different. Still, maybe an 8.5 spread is worth a shot. Meg got some rest last night, and in the West, you have to fight for every single win. I expect OKC to take it, but probably not by much.
I hope at least someone followed along. For today, the New York Knicks look decent at 1.4, though it’s going to be a long day. It doesn't matter if the Knicks are playing their third game in a row; they should pull it through. The Philadelphia matchup against the Atlanta Hawks 🤔 could go either way—maybe a two-point spread. Atlanta looked pretty rough against Meg, and Philly wasn't exactly shining last night. In a matchup between "currently struggling teams," I'd rather take the lesser of two evils. I'm getting a bit tired of seeing Orlando Magic and Indiana Pacers; I think this is the fourth time we've seen them play this season. The Orlando side looks solid, except that both teams aren't exactly playing great right now. Indiana handled the Dallas Mavericks well last night, but I didn't really feel like betting on it. Plus, they're heading back from a Western Conference road trip. It's probably best to avoid it, but if you have to, maybe a 1-point spread. Chicago Bulls vs Milwaukee Bucks under 190.5—that honestly looks like a great line.
I don't want to rub salt in the wound, but I definitely saw that warning sign with the Portland Trail Blazers coming. It’s a real shame I passed on them yesterday; those kinds of matchups are usually my bread and butter. Looking at today, the Miami Heat schedule looks interesting enough that I might actually consider sizing up my position. I also have a feeling that 96.5 for the LA Lakers is a bit steep, even if they are facing off against the Denver Broncos—or should I say, Carrington? Last year, the OKC Thunder really struggled against Mega, but things seem different this season. Still, taking the under on an 8.5 spread might be worth a shot. Mega looked refreshed last night, and in the West, you have to fight for every single win. I expect OKC to take it, but probably not by much. Personally, I tend to skip games where non-playoff contenders face off. You have to watch out for teams starting to coast already, especially since the '12 draft class is supposedly so deep.
@ James Taylor3 - he’ll probably just suggest an under for us; I’m just waiting for him to chime in. Honestly, I managed to snag some profit on an under last night, though my parlays were a bit of a mess, which ended up costing me.
I’ve already locked in a play on the under for tonight's game; I picked it up this afternoon without reading any of your takes. Among other things...
And if it matters to anyone, I don't have Portland in any of my plays. 😁
The Hawks just tipped off, so I'm going to jump in.
Look, if you're betting on an underdog, sitting on the bench actually works in your favor. I hit my play and you missed yours; I don't see the issue here. All three of my parlays busted, but whatever. We go again tomorrow.
There isn't a DraftKings nearby, and honestly, I really can't be bothered to drive all the way over there. I've put together three different parlays—it feels like I'm just throwing money away at this point, but I can already see how this is going to play out. It doesn't matter much, though; Thursday is basically a wash in the NBA anyway, so I suppose we might as well play while there's actually something happening. Just piling them on. I've been hunkered down here since 1:15 AM with nothing but a pack of Kleenex for company.🙂
He’s got Olympic gold, whereas I don't think anyone from the old North American leagues playing between '81 and '12 can claim that. 😁
People hate his guts, yet they're all over the comments with smiley faces whenever he hits an over on his player props. 🤷 It just goes to show that when there's money on the line, people will overlook just about anything.
edit: taking OKC at 2.05 in Germany 😲 The value is simply too high to pass up, even if it doesn't pan out.
@Ronald James41/">@@Ronald James41 Now that Wade is back, Bosh becomes a complete gamble, and the whole Miami situation turns into a guessing game about which of those three might actually hit the over.
All three went under last game. You laid it out nicely, though I suppose LeBron looks like the most likely candidate for an under right now.
Then there's this guy copying Granger's over based on "our" logic 🙏 Honestly, you're practically forcing my hand to play him under just so one of us can enjoy the satisfaction of being right.😁 Rose over? Hmm, interesting. Did it ever occur to anyone that with Beasley returning, Love might actually take fewer shots? 🤷 He did clear 30 points once recently.
Arthur Hill2 said:I took a look at the numbers, and Philly is giving up nearly 19 points at the power forward spot; Boozer is averaging about 20 against them. With Hamilton and Deng out of the picture, I suppose Rose and Boozer are really the only viable options left. Rose will probably go on a scoring tear in the fourth quarter—it’s what Carlos did last time before we hit the over; Rose just doubles or triples down in the final stretch while Boozer is left wandering around like a ghost.😬
I agree regarding OKC; there's no way they lose two in a row here.😉
Compared to this season, Griffin is actually more of a candidate for the under than the over. I seem to recall him casually dropping 40-point games last year.😢
There it is—that's the kind of insight I was talking about. Much appreciated.
OKC looks pretty solid. Last year, Griffin fed me quite well with performances like these. If he hits around that 25 mark, you can basically bank it regardless of who they're playing. Stick to the 22.5 or 23.5 lines and play without much worry.
James Taylor3 said:graniteotter6, I had no idea you were wading into these waters too. 👍
I caught a bit of the Indiana game last night, and the commentators mentioned that Granger has put up over 20 points in five consecutive games. He could easily have a standard off-night shooting 3-for-13 today—he does seem to enjoy those stretches—but I'm just speculating here; I'm not even sure who they're playing or what the line is set at. 😁
Dallas vs. Oklahoma? :hmm:
That might actually be an interesting one to watch, if nothing else.
Cheers, Tsigi. 👍 I don't post much here, mostly because I rarely have any inside info (and frankly, I can't be bothered clicking through to figure out who's active and who isn't) nor am I as meticulous as some of you. Essentially, I just read, and when I play, I usually follow my gut rather than copying anyone else's picks. The line for Granger is 18.5 points. I have a feeling he might land right around 18. Since they never bother putting Young in the props anyway, 🙄 they're facing the Bulls. Why the skepticism regarding OKC? It shouldn't be much of a question; from what I've seen, Dallas is acting like the Celtics this year—taking easy wins and dropping the big ones.🤷 I'm hoping Griffin hits 20 or 21 again.
I wouldn't bet on Boozer to go over. As far as I can recall, he’s never really been one to hunt the over against top-tier opponents. If anyone is trying to pick at that, I think someone here probably already mentioned it. There are 11 games today, and right away, Dal-OKC 2 and Miami 2 jumped out at me. I've found my core picks here. We'll back Granger for the under—I have a feeling he's due for a quiet night—and of course, we're looking to tear through Deron with an over. Any advice, or perhaps some counter-advice?
I took a break last night, which was probably a mistake because I was planning to build a slip around Atlanta winning and Gay for the under (he missed it by half a basket), but I couldn't find anything else that fit my criteria and just gave up. However, since we brought up Boozer, I feel obligated to share my slip from the day before; it was honestly absurd how many "Goozes" hit.
Boozer over 14.5 (he had 10 with about 5 or 6 minutes left when the game was basically decided, then somehow mysteriously ended up with 18) Wade under 23.5 (he had 20 at halftime and finished with 22) Mem - SAS x2 73:83, solid, though Gooz wasn't involved there. Mia-Cha p/k 1/1 (barely cleared the first half, gave me a bit of a heart attack) Was-Chi p/k 2/2, also without Gooz. Griffin under 22.5—the guy hits two in the first quarter and sends me straight to bed, thinking, "Don't worry, he won't screw you over, sleep tight." And he finishes with 22.😁
EDIT: Griffin under 22.5 again, especially in a cold environment like Utah where nobody seems to want to play? Advice, or maybe counter-advice?
stormygardener8 said:Velesila😉 Oh, come on, they aren't just fourth; they're actually third among the former America teams—which puts them fifth in all of Europe—and if we're talking about basketball, they're straight up number one in the old America region. 😁
He didn't say "fourth," he said "four." You misread him. As for basketball, I’m holding out hope for the Olympics, though the group draw for Venezuela is coming up in a few days. With those late-night time slots, I doubt we'll see much NBA action...🙂
electricorca112 said:Since you laid out two completely contradictory statements—one being right and the other being plain wrong—I didn't see any harm in just repeating the one that actually holds water. 😛
There won't be any play-offs for 5th through 8th place. Instead, the two third-place finishers from the groups will go head-to-head for 5th, and if that becomes necessary, the two fourth-place teams will move straight into playing for 7th without any extra playoff rounds.
Well, that’s still technically a playoff. At least, that's what I've always understood it to be. 😁 If they had said, "Since you didn't make the semifinals, let's just call it quits—no more games," then maybe there wouldn't be any playoffs. You get my point, right? 😉
I mean... I just can't believe it. In my opinion, they were actually our best bet for making the semifinals. They had such incredible momentum after clawing their way back from a 9:20 deficit, and everything was sitting there for the taking. But then, against Mexico, they completely fell apart and showed they really don't belong at this level. So, I’m pretty skeptical about them pulling off a win against Germany, let alone by the margin we actually need. Theoretically, I guess what you wrote holds water.