Posts by brightheron64

Bryan Booth82 As if I haven't heard this all before...
When the West starts slapping restrictions on oil sales and all those petroleum-based products, it’s pretty clear that Russia's revenue is going to take a significant hit too...

If global oil prices take a dive, everyone loses—from our friends in the Middle East right down to those massive Norwegian sovereign wealth funds... And honestly, I find it hard to believe that anyone would be willing to foot a much higher bill just to pay double what we’re paying to the Russians, simply out of some sense of moral high ground or altruism...

Bryan Booth82 said:Russia doesn't have a diversified economy; for the most part, it's almost entirely built on cranking out energy resources.
I don't think I even need to spell this out: cutting off gas sales to the West—at the massive volumes they were pumping before the aggression started—cannot simply be replaced by selling it somewhere else. It's not a one-for-one swap.
Furthermore, when the West limits the sale of oil and petroleum products, Russia's profit margins take a direct hit.

As for the other sanctions, they mostly have a symbolic, albeit necessary, impact on the economy and society... especially since, more often than not, they end up hitting Russia harder than they hit the West.

The true "breaking point" will be found on the front lines in Ukraine, and the sanctions—alongside the delivery of weapons—are exactly what will help push things toward that moment.

lp

That’s really all there is to say...
I can't help but worry that this whole situation might drag on much longer than any of us are prepared for. Right now, it feels like we’re just stuck in this endless cycle of trying to outlast one another, seeing who can hold their ground the longest... but at the end of the day, it always seems to settle in the exact same way. Whether you're sitting at the negotiating table or just waiting out the clock in a train car, the result remains unchanged...

Nancy Gomez26 said:You meant this: fracking?

Yeah... 🙈

Well, there it is... apparently, they're saying the break-even point is sitting right around $30 a barrel...

subtitle : Quote

Nancy Gomez26 said:subtitle : Quote

No. The objective isn't total paralysis; it's to force the Russian Federation into a corner where they can still pump oil, but at razor-thin margins—effectively flooding the global market with cheap supply to crash prices. That serves the interests of the West perfectly right now. Putin could have dealt a far more devastating blow to the West if he had simply shut off every single gas and oil pipe immediately. But much like his hesitant entry into the war—refusing to just "crush the fields"—his foreign policy remains equally indecisive. He’s desperate to project some semblance of "international success" domestically to prove they aren't totally isolated from the world. In this game, Putin is playing from a significantly weaker hand, constantly reacting to events rather than driving them, which only deepens his weakness. By my estimation, it's too late for drastic shifts; the world has already adjusted to this reality. Such moves might have carried weight at the start, when he first realized he was drifting away from the West, but now, the window has likely slammed shut.

You really think so?

To be honest, I'm just not sure... I mean, does anyone actually know what a barrel costs straight out of a cracking unit these days?

subtitle : Quote

Bryan Booth82 said:Setting aside the fact that such total isolation would be practically impossible, that isn't actually the primary objective here.
The goal is to cripple the Russian economy as a direct consequence for their criminal aggression against Ukraine.
Sanctions align with the moral principles we claim to uphold; frankly, how can we continue to cooperate with people whose actions we find utterly reprehensible?

I mean, think about it—how can we condemn Putler for his crimes while everything remains business as usual on the economic front? It just doesn't add up!🤔

If we are already pouring significant resources into weapons and aid, then the logical next step is to use sanctions to intensify the pressure. We want to ensure Russia feels the strain and bleeds economically, which directly and indirectly benefits Ukraine.

lp

It "doesn't work"? That's a bit of an oversimplification, don't you think?

The real mess is that this Russia is bleeding cheap oil and gas... while most of the rest of the world acts like a pack of vampires, licking their lips and shouting for more. Those "mysterious tankers" didn't just materialize out of thin air in the Bermuda Triangle.

The heart of the matter is finding that breaking point—that specific threshold where it becomes unprofitable for the Russians to sell their oil at all. But I suspect hitting a "bottomless pit" scenario is going to be incredibly difficult because we have plenty of allies who aren't interested in that outcome. If we set aside the Arabs and just look at the Britons and Norwegians... could you even imagine oil dropping to $20 a barrel? The odds are slim, to say the least...

It reminds me of how Sweden used to maintain its neutrality, yet Hitler was able to build a massive chunk of his war machine using Swedish iron (not to mention the oil, but let's not go there).

Christian Torres3 said:Look, the whole thing is pretty simple: the world still needs a certain amount of Russian oil, but they just don't want Russia making any money off it—that’s why this whole situation is being tolerated.

But isn't the entire point of those specific sanctions to make sure the Russians can't sell even a single drop?

Bryan Booth82 said:Isn't that exactly what sanctions are designed to do?
Just keep cranking up those installment payments day after day and... game over.👍

lp

Every now and then, I get this nagging feeling that someone is playing a very dirty game with someone else, and it makes me feel like we really need to go back to Clausewitz and his famous idea that: "War is the continuation of politics by other means"...

A mysterious fleet is helping Russia ship oil around the world. And it’s growing!
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/01/b...eet/index.html

Charles Ross3 said:You were listening to Marxism because it was a mandatory requirement (even if they called it something else), but you were studying Marxism within an engineering program, not "Engineering Marxism" or "Marxist Mechanical Engineering."

The reality is that under the socialist system, subjects like Marxism or sociology were integrated into almost every major. It's also true that, for the most part, they served as tools for indoctrination. However, people weren't sitting in "Sociology of Mechanical Engineering" or "Marxism for Electrical Engineering"; rather, the idea was that students of engineering, electrical tech, or agriculture needed to grasp the broader social landscape they lived in. Of course, that brings us right back to the question of how much of that was genuine social insight versus pure indoctrination.

But regardless, when we are talking about the hard sciences, these were two entirely separate spheres: you studied your engineering because you had to, and you sat through some Marxism or sociology just to check a box—likely doing the bare minimum to pass—but it existed as a distinct entity. You wouldn't go looking for electrical schematics inside Marx's *Capital* or Engels' *The Origin of the Family, Private Property and the State*.

What we are seeing now, with this supposed 'introduction of the Bible into engineering,' is a completely different beast. The Bible, as a collection of texts with diverse origins and eras, can certainly be analyzed through the lens of the humanities—looking at historical context, literary merit, dramatic structure, or its inherent messaging. But it simply cannot serve as the foundation for exact, empirical research. A collection of texts that claims to be dogma and eternal truth cannot be the basis for the hard sciences and rigorous scientific inquiry—which is precisely what an original, technical engineering paper ought to be.

I mean, what follows this: Catholic Dentistry?

If we were talking about building stuff from the Bible, sure, I might follow along... but when you bring mechanical engineering into the mix, well, that's a whole different story altogether... 😲

Apropos Marxism, you can't deny that indoctrination is always part of the equation...
It’s just like how the UN and the Department of State act during that first year at any major university... 🤦

I have to admit, there’s a certain logic to how our later setup—with mandatory military service, those reserves, and the Territorial Defense units...—actually gave us a fighting chance when it came to securing our independence...
I can only begin to imagine what the final outcome would have been if, back in the days of Yu about twenty or thirty years ago, we had been dealing with a purely professional military force...

Benjamin Stewart53 said:Jack, I was watching ABC yesterday and saw a clip of young Dustin Hoffman being pursued by a seductive Anna Bancroft... I honestly had no idea they were filming scenes like that back in the sixties! It’s such an incredible movie, and seeing him, it actually reminds me a bit of Donnie Dark, since both characters share this same sort of awkward, lost energy...

"Mrs. Robinson, you're trying to seduce me.... Aren't you?" 🙏

My late mother used to say: "you'd be better off dropping dead than letting someone lead you astray"... 😵

Last night, I happened to stumble upon "Apocalypse Now" playing on AMC... 🙏

Even though I had my recorder ready to go, I found myself having to wait just to catch that iconic moment where they say "I love the smell of napalm in the morning", all while being fully aware that getting out of bed this morning was going to be an absolute struggle... 😬

Nathan Thomas12 said:Wait, how does that work?
For months now, you've been predicting that Europe was going to freeze solid.

Winter isn't even officially here for another three days, yet this war... well, let's just hope it wraps up within the next 333 days, if we're lucky...

Nathan Thomas12 said:Back in March, you were predicting we'd run out of oil, then gas, then food.
Well, it's mid-December now and we're still standing...

It really comes down to who managed to hold their ground...

I’ve managed to pull through just by soaking up all that sunshine—thank goodness my apartment faces south—and layering up in plenty of sweaters instead of relying on the electric heater...
Just look at the price of a single egg these days, or even just basic staples like flour, milk, and chicken... It’s getting ridiculous. And don't even get me started on the current business trends—if you can call my sector of miserable private entrepreneurship that—because sales are cratering, and my paycheck is taking a hit right along with them since everything is tied to performance...

By the way, you didn't just copy the posts, you copied the links too... so I have to wonder, are these actually my own predictions, or am I just echoing the opinions of the "experts" found within those links...

Bryan Booth82 said:Ha! The narratives shift so fast, it’s almost funny. Next thing you know, they'll be saying, "...I never actually said that..." or "...I never wrote that..."
Lp

God forbid. ☕

wearytrucker22 said:Wait, did Russian oil just tank below $50?
https://www.neste.com/investors/mark...ude-oil-prices

That’s actually fantastic news because... well, the principle of connected vessels still seems to apply here:

f things follow the current trend leading up to next Tuesday, December 20th, we might see diesel prices dip by about 15 cents, which would bring the new price down to roughly $3.75 per gallon. As for gasoline, it could potentially drop by about 30 cents, meaning we might see a new price of around $3.25 per gallon...

feralhawk45 said:If we burn through half of our known fossil fuel reserves at today's rate, life on this planet—at least for us mammals—is finished. Maybe some elite few will survive under glass domes.

Well, the reality is that life on Earth tends to hit the reset button every once in a while...
Nature doesn't really lose sleep over whether it's algae, trilobites, ferns, dinosaurs, or humans running the show...
And if there does happen to be an Almighty Architect up there, then I suppose it’s all just part of a higher design that’s completely out of our hands...

Joshua Myers432 said:Let’s be more precise: they won't buy it as long as this specific administration is running things in Russia.

You see, unlike the messy world of politics, mathematics is an exact science, which means the numbers don't care about anyone's feelings... so, I guess we'll just have to wait and see how this all plays out...

Timothy Williams5 said:The European Union is moving to cut off Russian oil imports entirely.

That was the stance taken by the European Commissioner for Energy, Kadri Simson. She noted that "our sanction will cover the oil needs for all member states, ensuring that we won't be buying Russian oil starting December 5th and that we've bridged the potential price gap for international buyers through our eighth package of sanctions," she told Reuters.

Beyond that, the G7 plan—designed to complement the EU embargo—is set to provide some level of support to shipping providers involved in exporting Russian oil, though this comes with a catch: it applies only at those mandated low price caps. This measure is also slated to take effect on December 5th.

https://www.reuters.com/business/ene...ls-2022-11-18/

Just a little comparison here...

Germans and Frenchmen spent over 150 years fighting one another tooth and nail, not to mention all the other drama happening across the rest of Europe and the world. And yet, look at us now...

You know that old saying about how money moves things in ways logic just can't touch?

William Cooper11 said:Not necessarily. Some estimates suggest we only have about 40 years of fossil fuels left before the well runs dry.

Well, if we look at the timeline, we should see the first fusion reactor actually operational by around 2040. So, really, there's no need to panic just yet...

Nathan Thomas12 said:Interesting point. But if that's the case, why can't the Chinese produce what Germans can? Germany builds high-end machinery for basically every industry, and China isn't even close.
If technology is so easy to grab, why don't the Chinese just copy everything?
P.S. Comparing grain production to microchips, heavy machinery, or jet engines is a bad call. Besides, those combines used for the grain usually come from the West.

It is an intriguing thesis, certainly.

How else would you explain the fact that up until the 70s, the Chinese weren't even capable of building what the Germans and Britons were producing for Bismarck or Queen Victoria, yet here they are today...

Just consider this one little detail:

Nearly a quarter of all cars newly registered in China are now electric or plug-in hybrid vehicles, meaning that the country is ahead of Europe and well ahead of The US in adoption of Thes technologies. Half The world's EVs ara sold in China.

Do you honestly think the Chinese—unlike the Russians—are just importing electric vehicles? That they aren't developing their own tech and manufacturing capabilities along the way... Can you even begin to imagine what the landscape will look like in five or ten years, and who will actually be leading the world in EV production?...

Nathan Thomas12 said:Interesting point. But if that's the case, why can't the Chinese produce what Germans can? Germany builds high-end machinery for basically every industry, and China isn't even close.
If technology is so easy to grab, why don't the Chinese just copy everything?
P.S. Comparing grain production to microchips, heavy machinery, or jet engines is a bad call. Besides, those combines used for the grain usually come from the West.

And that is exactly where the catch lies. Honestly, please just view this as a bit of lamentation or a debate... rather than some attempt to take the side of the Russians. I am simply wondering if, in the long run, these sanctions might actually force Russia into a new era of industrialization, transforming them from arrogant exporters and importers into genuine technological competitors...

Of course, it's a process that takes time, but once you learn a lesson like this, you'd hope it would prompt some reflection, much like what happened with the agricultural sector...

balzag said:Seeking self-sufficiency? What kind of phrasing is that? Wasn't the mantra until now that Russians were perfectly self-sufficient? That’s what brightheron64, along with all those other "neutral" objective observers, used to say. So why all this sudden talk about seeking it now, especially when they try to frame their own internal struggles as if they were problems facing the West...
Are you basically saying that before you were just rambling aimlessly, but now you've suddenly started thinking seriously?
And I suppose tomorrow they'll just go out and buy some lithography machines to start churning out chips in a teenager's bedroom, though the Chinese will probably just copy the lithography first just to spite them and avoid buying from the West. It's pretty simple math...

Actually, no, Russians weren't self-sufficient; they were just lazy people who calculated how to export enough natural resources to earn more than enough to buy every single luxury the global market has to offer. They were essentially like Middle Eastern oil states that sit on massive reserves, just with a much larger population to support...

Sanctions completely change the dynamic here. Up until the 90s, the USSR was actually one of the world's leading importers of grain and agricultural products. You see the same pattern with Russia as an independent nation, but the narrative is slowly shifting, particularly after those initial sanctions back in 2014, which led to Russia becoming the world's largest grain producer by 2017, while the rest of their agricultural output has also seen a massive surge...

Just for a bit of perspective, if Saudi Arabia were hit with sanctions similar to what the Russians faced today and nobody bought their oil anymore, they would literally starve...

When we look at technology, just as an example, when Sberbank was sourcing new servers, they reached the conclusion that the Russian Elbrus-8C simply couldn't compete with an Intel Xeon Gold processor. Now that Intel is off the table, both the Elbrus and Baikal processors will be considered perfectly fine. And it doesn't stop there; they're going to pour investment into further developing them. Sure, they might lag behind technologically, but what even is technology these days? Is it some sort of esoteric, guarded family secret like the way someone crafts a violin? Nowadays, if you present a certain group of geniuses and top-tier experts with a blank check, everything else becomes just a matter of time and money—which they certainly have plenty of... Take Hyundai, for instance; if they decide to build a sports car like the i30 n, they can simply acquire a piece of BMW's M division and their specialized know-how. And let's not forget that once upon a time, a budget-friendly Hyundai Pony was a major competitor to the Zastava and Yugo models on the American market...

You have to realize this is a long game; the more we force Americans to figure things out on their own, the more we are actually forcing them toward domestic development, which ultimately means they'll buy less from abroad, and that's to our disadvantage...

To be honest, I couldn't care less about Russia, but if this makes you happy, feel free to keep viewing all of this through the lens of Russophilia...

Bryan Jones82 said:Car sales plummeted by over 60% in 2022:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/putin...155020065.html

We went from 1.5 million units in 2021 down to roughly 650,000 in 2022. That’s a 20-year low! Back in 2012, things were booming with about 3 million cars sold. But get this—they're actually revving up production for the Moskvich at the old factory that Ford walked away from.

If I’m being completely honest, who is actually feeling the sting of this specific detail? Is it the Russians, or is it the nations with massive automotive industries? Even the very first round of sanctions forced them to reorganize—primarily their agricultural sector—and if you ask yourself who really lost in that scenario, well... just go talk to anyone in a major farming region, someone who grows citrus or other produce, and ask them what they think about these sanctions. I know a few growers who basically tell anyone listening to shove the sanctions where the sun doesn't shine, because according to them, a Russian buyer will show up with three or five semi-trucks full of cash and pay right on the spot after weighing the load. Compare that to how some big-name corporate tycoon used to handle payments...

I totally get the sense of schadenfreude, and I agree that sanctions are a deserved consequence for an invasion, but when you look at the long game, where is the actual benefit here? Forcing the Russians to find ways to adapt and survive might just break them, or it might simply force them to reorganize, even if it means they end up producing nothing but Lades or Moskvich cars... This isn't even helping us in the long run (think about companies like AD Plastics or Cimos America...). And don't even get me started on the Germans, the Frenchmen, or the Japanese men...

Only time will tell how much sense all these sanctions truly make, and whether forcing Russia toward self-sufficiency—not that they are some kind of wasteland lacking resources—will work better than continuing to feed and subtly manipulate those wealthy oil tycoons and importers who buy everything without a second thought, from hamburgers to S-Class Mercedes... It makes me wonder how much this actually serves the other side and their commitment to playing the role of the righteous hero, even when we set aside "trivialities" like cheap energy sources...

Just look at Iran, for instance; how long have they been under sanctions?
And yet...?

Thomas Walker84 said:I'm not quite seeing the connection to the sanctions against Russia. If you're talking about American agricultural laws, there are plenty of other threads on the forum for that... unless you're referring to protecting crops from invasive species like Russians 😉

Well, whenever I see the price of flour at the grocery store, my mind immediately jumps to how much everything is shifting... 😉

Though, maybe I'm just overthinking things...

Thomas Walker84 said:Well, the sanctions against Russia don't target food, medicine, or a few other essentials. The goal isn't to directly starve people; it's to weaken the Russian military machine, which stays wealthy primarily through resource sales and business deals.

As for what happens to Russia, well, who knows...

I just really hope that some American wise guy from our own political circus manages to learn a lesson or two from all this madness...

WINNERS AND LOSERS UNDER THE NEW AGRICULTURAL LAND LAW
Given how limited farmland is and how much the demand for food keeps climbing, we really need our agricultural land to be actively cultivated, kept at an economically viable scale, protected from threats like pollution, runoff, or invasive species, and mostly owned by local residents. However, for years now, we've seen an increase in uncultivated acreage, which feels like a double blow...

The first hit is that these lands are effectively taken out of production entirely. The second is that the push to bring them back into use to meet rising domestic needs—and even higher global food demands—is becoming increasingly intense... It's estimated that there are about 400,000 hectares of uncultivated land in America today. The second part of the damage is that reclaiming those lands is getting more expensive by the day; while it used to cost about $1 per square meter, it's now estimated at closer to $3 per square meter, which theoretically adds up to nearly $2 billion...


Just as a side note, 400,000 hectares is roughly 1,544 square miles, which accounts for about 7% of the total land area in the US!

Wikipedia quote

wearytrucker22 said:If that Russian state bank funding their entire agricultural sector doesn't get reconnected to the SWIFT international payment system—which they were cut off from by Western sanctions—we're going to see issues.

The United Nations reported that 10 million tons of grain and other food supplies have been shipped out of Ukraine under the Black Sea initiative agreed upon back in July, a move designed to stave off a global food crisis.

But the Russians are whining, claiming that even though their own shipments of grain and fertilizer aren't technically targeted by Western sanctions, they're effectively blocked because those sanctions make it impossible for shipping companies to access financing, insurance, and port services.

https://news.yahoo.com/russia-says-r...UPXEP0IsY98IG1

It all just feels like a bunch of sensationalist political theater and media hype, where they spin the narrative so heavily that it ends up looking like Ukraine is single-handedly feeding most of the planet...

Speaking of all this bickering, you really ought to take a look at the sheer scale of Russian grain and fertilizer exports... It’s staggering, honestly. I can't help but wonder, though, why on earth we aren't seeing any real sanctions being slapped on that side of the equation yet...
Wikipedia quote

Wikipedia quote: For generations, the sale of grain—especially wheat—has been a cornerstone of the global economy, serving as a massive source of export revenue for Russia throughout history and continuing to position the Russian Federation as one of the world's most influential grain suppliers alongside the EU... The Russian Federation... Historical text... When you take a look at the global landscape, it's clear that certain nations act as the backbone of our food security, serving as the primary grain suppliers to the world market... and it’s a role they have held for generations, ensuring that the massive demand from both the US and the rest of the globe remains met through shifting political tides... ...joining forces with the European Union, which held that second spot back in 2019/20, followed closely by the USA in third and Canada coming in at fourth... Ukraine, sitting right there in fifth place....

Of course, the Russians are whining because without those exports, the money just stops flowing... But at the end of the day, I wonder who actually cares more about all this complaining—the hungry buyers looking for supplies, or the producers who are stuck struggling with massive surpluses...