Posts by analogbear5

darkdriver said:If you're measuring how much someone actually cares by their post count, or even by the ripple effect those deaths cause in the world, well... I mean, it's kind of funny how some people feel totally fine calling everyone else immoral when they aren't exactly doing better themselves.

Glad to see the rest of the crew is on the same page.

You're putting way too much weight on online debates, social media, Facebook, and all that nonsense. Get some fresh air—there's a whole world outside the internet.

darkdriver said:Look, I'm not trying to play lawyer here, but...
There are literally five armed conflicts/wars going on right now with over 10,000 victims each, where things are just as bad—if not worse—than what's happening in Ukraine
How many posts have you or your little "moral police" buddies actually left on those threads?

The reason I'm even talking here is because there are enough people in this thread to drown out the trolls and the intellectual seven-year-olds.

And for me, the death of a civilian in Syria, Palestine, or Ukraine is equally tragic.

wiredseal7 said:It's a bit of a contradiction, though—the way the West paints Russia. They depict them as terrifyingly dangerous, yet simultaneously weak and riddled with corruption—basically just a decadent, oligarchic elite at the top.

That isn't exactly a reliable litmus test for fascism when it's such a common trope—especially during wartime—and serves as standard propaganda for pretty much every side involved in this conflict, directly or otherwise.

The "West" isn't some monolithic ideological bloc like you're imagining. Unless by "the West" you just mean the United States—in which case you could make a case if we assume the core pillars of American foreign policy and hegemony are beyond the reach of the average voter, essentially sitting on bipartisan consensus.

Beyond that, Western ideology is really just consumerism and the commodification of everything—education, healthcare, media, art, sports, you name it. One of the biggest drivers is the commodification of media via "clickbait culture," where everyone online can basically curate their own version of reality. This leads to an ideologically fragmented population, and I don't think the ground is fertile enough for a single "official truth" like the one they try to manufacture and maintain in Russia. How else would you explain Trump or Brexit, where the "official" ideology just lost its grip at the ballot box?

For the rest of ecov's definition of fascism, click here.

wearyheron5 said:IPSE DIXIT Dmitry Medvedev
(my bolded excerpt follows)

"Sanctions against Russia target ordinary citizens and are fueled by pure hatred. (...) What’s the goal of freezing Federal Reserve assets and other state property? It's simple. To wreck the economy, tank the currency, and spike inflation, effectively lowering the standard of living for the average Russian citizen. >
The embargo on Russian oil and gas? Same playbook: drain budget revenues and force the government to abandon social safety nets, including cost-of-living adjustments. Hit the taxpayers in both the cities and the rural towns."

Dmitry Medvedev, May 31, 2022.

*********

"We have every tool necessary for self-sufficiency. In many ways, previous sanctions actually served us well. They forced us to develop import substitution across all sectors—including high-tech industries—to innovate new technologies, products, and pharmaceuticals. The government has already implemented measures to support both the people and the economy through social benefits and increased funding for the tech, agricultural, and banking sectors. There will be no economic collapse."

Dmitry Medvedev. March 20, 2022.

🤔

That escalated quickly...

The latest invention from the Kremlin kitchen: Schrödinger sanctions. They are simultaneously devastating and beneficial; they drive up inflation while being welcomed because they spur domestic growth and consolidate Russian society.

There are plenty of ways to define what makes a regime fascist. One version comes from the Italian writer Umberto Eco in a 14-point list, and then there’s this one:

Fascist societies rhetorically frame their enemies as being "simultaneously too strong and too weak." On one hand, fascists lean on the power of specific elites to fuel a sense of vulnerability and humiliation among their followers. At the same time, fascist leaders point to the decadence of those same elites as proof of their ultimate weakness when faced with a powerful national will.

Germany’s diluting the EU oil embargo just to line its own pockets (The Wall Street Journal)

Diplomats accuse Berlin of hijacking talks in order to Secure wider concessions that would benefit its own Economy Quote : European sources told The Telegraph that Berlin wanted an exemption for deliveries via pipeline to be extended fra Canada

European sources told The Wall Street Journal that Berlin wants to extend those pipeline delivery exemptions—originally meant for Canada, Slovakia and the Czech Republic—to the whole damn bloc.

“At first, it was just about giving Viktor Orbán some breathing room, but now Germany is looking at it as a way to bail itself out. Germany Has pushed for this … to narrow The scope of The sanctions on Russia,” one diplomat noted.

Apple Looks to Boost Production Outside China

"The iPhone giant is telling its suppliers they need to ramp up manufacturing across India and Southeast Asia"

Interest rates just got slashed to 11% because they're trying to combat the ruble's devaluation. I've been preaching about this on this thread for ages, so I won't bore you with the same old lecture.

George Robinson43 said:I find this surprising coming from someone who works for the government—a system where you're essentially only allowed to speak if you're praising the powers that be.
Anything else risks a prison cell, a bullet, or even nerve gas.

By the way, that YouTuber from Latvia is actually a Russian bot, Kirill Fedorov. He’s safe and sound back in Russia now, where he can vlog on Meta all he wants.
Oh, wait. I forgot. Meta is classified as an extremist organization and is actually banned in Russia.
Shit. What happens now?

For some people here, getting banned from the forum is worse than going to jail. At least in prison, you can still get online.

Chinese people actually managed to hit the 7nm mark in semiconductor manufacturing—you can't just brush that off as easy. Meanwhile, Russia has reached 90nm this year, with a long-term goal of hitting 28nm by 2030.

On this forum, everyone always seems to be viewing China as being about 15 years behind where they actually are.

Then go ahead and tell the Russians they're just wasting their time building all those new icebreakers to move their LNG.

Oil exports diverted to China for the tenth time.

European pipelines definitely aren't seeing any of that.

Also, regarding that last sentence above—it’s imports to Russia, not imports from Russia.

wiredseal7 said:Here we go again with the same old trolling nonsense.

The old lady with the cookies probably helped Ursula and Joe make sure you can't touch any rubles anytime soon. 🤣

Russia isn't all perfect—obviously—and they're feeling the heat.
But let’s be real: that massive economic collapse everyone predicted—you know, the currency meltdown that's supposed to be one of their biggest weaknesses—just hasn't happened yet. So, unfortunately, we’re stuck dealing with them for a long time, staring each other down through scopes for decades to come.
We were doing fine using them for cheap energy—we even had cheaper gas coming out of Asia—until someone decided to poke the bear with color revolutions and uprisings. If we hadn't played it that way, things wouldn't be such a mess.

I honestly don't know who—if anyone here—was actually banking on a currency collapse. I mean, seriously, how do you even tank the currency of a country that pumps out that much raw material?! People on this forum seem to think the exchange rate is some massive indicator of everything under the sun. It isn't. Right now, the value of the ruble against the dollar or the euro is basically just a reflection of the balance of payments—and since they're exporting huge amounts of commodities (high demand for rubles = high price) while imports have cratered because of sanctions (nothing coming in = low supply of rubles), the math is simple.

A strong ruble makes importing easier and lets importers grab some profit, but what exactly are they importing, and from where?

But prices jumped. The Arabs are loving it.

velvetlynx4 said:I haven't really been following this war lately; honestly, I lost interest somewhere around the two-month mark.
Have those sanctions actually managed to shake Russia, or is it all just empty noise?

Russia is actually making bank off high oil prices—plus they're raking it in on grain by hiking prices to fill the gap left by the Ukrainian exports they've blocked.

It just ups the risk of famine, especially for the struggling folks in countries that relied on wheat from Ukraine. It’s perfect leverage for blackmail.

This is going to trigger the next massive wave of refugees heading into Europe—something the Russians always seem to enjoy. So, technically, they're winning this fight against the West.

wiredseal7 said:Who actually thinks a strong dollar is perfect?
I was looking at those predictions where they thought the dollar would hit 200 against their currency—which honestly would have been way worse for them than just having a strong currency. The West basically tried to sledgehammer their exchange rate back in March, hoping to tank the Russian economy, but it didn't quite land the way they planned.

With how much the value is shifting, I'm not sure it's even worth swapping for foreign cash right now. Did a black market pop up where the "real" rate is 200 to the dollar? Haven't heard anything, and since the Ukrainian media is always full of horror stories coming out of Russia, I wouldn't be surprised if it exists somewhere under the radar.

Look, I wasn't asking these questions to prove a strong ruble means the Russian economy is tanking. My point was that the ruble is strong because the Russian government is making it happen. If you look at the answers to these questions, you can pretty clearly see what their economic policy goals are.

It’s honestly pointless trying to explain how the official exchange rate has zero connection to reality when capital controls are this tight. It happens every single time.

Since an overpriced dollar kills exports, it's pretty obvious this rate is just a move to aggressively crush inflation—and keep up appearances that everything is running smoothly.

wiredseal7 said:Yeah, there are reasons for this—mostly because Russia's exports are irreplaceable and they're demanding payment in dollars.
But I guess those "armchair experts" on this forum didn't see that coming, did they?

Besides, thank God the interest rate is decent enough that holding cash actually pays off—instead of the endless cycle of feeding stock market speculators and printing money until the savings are worthless like they did for the last five years or so.

Which helps exports more: a strong dollar or a weak one?
Which helps imports more: a strong dollar or a weak one?
And which one helps curb inflation: a strong dollar or a weak one?

"Quote:"

Arthur Miller7 said:Oh, sure, they aren't "hurting" Russia—that’s what everyone says. But let’s be real here: we all pretty much expected them to buckle instantly, right? We thought sanctions would just choke off their ability to fund this whole war machine, but—surprise, surprise—that hasn't happened yet. So now everyone's whining, asking if the sanctions were even worth it. Personally? I still say they were. Even if they end up hitting us in the ass later, it's better than nothing. Without any sanctions at all, it would have been way easier for them to pull off this "special operation." My big fear is that while the sanctions are necessary, they might not actually be enough to stop this madness
In short: the sanctions are still doing their job, they just didn't produce the immediate knockout blow we wanted.

If you all thought Russia was going to fold overnight—and that sanctions would just magically solve everything—maybe take a quick look at the dictionary. Specifically, check the definitions for "inventory" versus "stockpiles."

Good point. Give us gas prices like what Orbán gets—otherwise, we’re stuck buying LNG.