Posts by James Taylor3

A bit of useful intel for those of you playing player props:

Gerald Wallace has averaged 20.7 points in 15 career games against the Sacramento Kings—the highest scoring average he has against any team in the league.

Batum is out tonight, so expect plenty of minutes for Wallace.

I'm not sure where the line is set, but Wallace could easily pad his road stats this evening. 🤷

Brandon Clark5 said:What are you even talking about regarding over/unders? Statistics don't mean a thing—it doesn't matter what the percentage is for unders versus overs. It all depends on who’s playing whom. You don't need a PhD to grasp that. For instance, I'll hit four or five unders in a row, and then what happens? Suddenly, Chicago vs. Miami turns into a 190-point shootout because Derrick Rose and LeBron are tearing it up. Then K. Love drops 30 against the Lakers, Kobe Bryant does his thing, and Bynum and Gasol both put up 20+. And you're going to tell me the odds were 60:40 for the under? It’s a total lottery. Honestly, it feels like everyone finally warmed up after those massive injuries, and now everybody's just scoring at will.

That concept is called: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_deviation

One day it's mostly unders, the next it's all overs, but long-term the ratio sits at 60-40 in favor of the under—that's what Nicholas Chase34 was getting at. Sure, it’s a bit of a simplistic way to put it, but he's not wrong.

Also, if you look at the totals, the lines in our local American sportsbooks are consistently higher than they are at Pinnacle—usually by a point or two. It's likely because the guys at SS-ovac realized people lean heavily toward the over, so they hike the lines just to screw you. As if those lousy 1.85-1.85 odds weren't enough without adding manipulative fees on top.

Speaking of manipulative costs, I should mention I've saved $167 since I switched to an offshore bookie instead of letting our beloved local operators bleed me dry with those fees. Not that I'm betting huge amounts, but still.

Vodka, we nailed that Danny Granger under prediction last night. 😂

analoghound21 said:I'm with you on Portland—they look like winners to me—and Derrick Rose over 25.5 is looking pretty tempting too.

So, for now...

Portland
Derrick Rose over 25.5
@2.96

I'm leaning toward Denver myself. A few days ago, when the Clippers barely scraped by them on the road, Chauncey Billups was on fire with 32 points—plus Ty Lawson was out and Wilson Afflalo was just getting back from injury. That said, Billups struggled with his shot last night, so I doubt he repeats that performance tonight🤷 and beyond that, C.J. Butler’s availability is a question mark. 🤔

Then again... the Clippers are likely at their peak right now, playing at home in front of the TNT cameras. That kind of motivation usually keeps them dialed in, so I think I'll pass on that one after all. 🤷
...actually, Chris Paul might be an over again, maybe pair it with this...

LaMarcus Aldridge over 22.5
Chris Paul over 19.5
@3.42

Man, that Portland play isn't going to pan out; everyone is riding that same bet. 🤣
Well, for the exact reasons you mentioned, I might actually take Denver. 🤷

The Clippers are playing their fourth game in five days, which is a grind, but that's why they had such an easy start to the season. If I recall, heading into one of those matchups against the Lakers, the Clippers had four or five fewer games played than Kobe and his crew. That's why they're feeling the squeeze now.

Hard to say. I've watched them quite a bit this season; they play well, I agree, but they tend to hit those slumps—especially in the second half—particularly if Butler is sidelined tonight. Dever has a full roster with no injuries, so they have plenty of depth. Nene might limit Blake Griffin, though; he knows how to play him tough on defense.

And Timofey Mozgov will probably be looking to settle the score with Blake for that screen he set on him last season. 🤣

Alex Cook said:Exactly. To me, this looks like the start of a decent winning streak, which in a compressed season like this could mean about 6 to 9 wins. Blake and Chris Paul have found some rhythm, Chauncey, Michael Jordan, and Jimmy Butler are doing their jobs perfectly, and Mo Williams is providing solid production off the bench. It feels like their window is opening, so I wouldn't advise betting against them.

True, they have momentum, but I think the streak ends tonight.
No matter how good the LA Clippers are, their free throw shooting is a disaster—they’re likely among the worst in the league in that department, even with Chauncey on the roster. Blake Griffin, Michael Jordan, and Chris Evans are abysmal from the line, and since teams frequently foul them—often strategically, especially targeting those last two—it's a massive liability.

Despite the home-court advantage, I think the Denver Nuggets look fresher. They have more depth to work with; they can pull this one off.

Thanks, wiredcanyon39. 😁

I’m taking the Portland Trail Blazers at -3.5—pretty sure Bet365 has it at 1.952. 🤷

The Denver Nuggets at 2 is also looking good to me. From what I saw, the LA Clippers had a brutal game last night, and they've been playing a lot lately. 🤷
They beat them in Colorado just a few days ago, but today the 2 feels right.

Chicago could give those poor New York Knicks a hard time, especially if Luol Deng returns.

Anyway, I'll need to look over everything this afternoon before deciding on my final moves.

Can someone C/P the lines? 😁

wiredcanyon39 said:The Portland Trail Blazers have started the season strong—Aldridge is putting up numbers every single night, looking really sharp often clearing 20+. As the main engine for Portland, he should find plenty of space in the paint, especially since the Sacramento Kings and Charlotte Bobcats have some of the weakest interior defense in the league. Aldridge usually hits his over at home, but against a defense this porous, passing on this bet feels like a mistake. Batum is the only major injury concern for the Blazers, but even without him, I think they take this easily—maybe even cover the spread, though let's not get ahead of ourselves.

🤣 thanks for the bolded text.

Yeah, Portland should take this—they’re much better, and they’ve already handled them twice this year. True, Portland has been shaky on the road this season, but Sacramento is a perfect spot to build some momentum.

LaMarcus actually sees more minutes on the road than at home, which leads to higher scoring. I can't put an exact number on it, but he produces. Plus, his shooting percentage is excellent this season; he should have no trouble scoring against a Kings squad like this. 👍

Regarding Batum, I read yesterday that he had an MRI and it didn't show anything serious, so there's a chance he plays today.

But let's wait and see if the Jennings crew actually wakes up. 😁

There are a billion games happening today—and I don't like any of the lines or odds.

Taking a quick breather.

graniteotter6 said:edit: looking at OKC at 2.05 on FanDuel😲 that’s pure value regardless of the outcome.

Over at DraftKings, you can grab the Thunder at 2.25.
Now, that's actually valuable.
😁

Nicholas Chase34 said:Because if Wade manages to shut down Jennings, the pick gets shaky—not really worth playing unless you're looking for a long shot.

The "B(G)(L)oozer" thing isn't about hate; it's just some clever wordplay on his last name. 🤣

He's basically the twin brother of Karl Malone. 🤣 🤣

B G L oozer🤣

Plus, everyone's talking trash after that disastrous last season. Personally, I was never a huge fan either. 🙂

Yeah, Malone is just Boozer in a different jersey—same style, same build. 🤣

If they take Wade Jennings—which I might if I were playing—I'm just not sure if he hits the over. 🤷

It’s fascinating how much people on this forum seem to hate Goozer. 🤣

Arthur Hill2 said:I looked at the numbers—Philly allows nearly 19 points at the PF position, and Boozer averages 20 against them. With Hamilton and Deng out, the reality is that Rose and Boozer are basically the only options left. Rose will likely double down in the fourth quarter—just like Carlos did last time when he went over, doubling or even tripling 😬 while Boozer is left out there like a ghost.

I agree with the rest of this, but be careful with those stats from Hoops. I never use them—maybe I should, but I prefer sticking to my own two or three pages for analysis—but I recall Nicholas Chase34 mentioning once that those stats include bench scoring, not just starters.😉

Which means Gibson’s points count toward that total too.

graniteotter6 said:Cheers, James Taylor3. :top :
I don't post here much—mostly because I don't have any inside info (and frankly, I can't be bothered clicking around to figure out who's playing and who isn't), nor am I as detailed as some of you.
Mostly I just read, playing strictly on my gut feeling rather than copying others.
Granger is at 18.5 points. I have a feeling he hits exactly 18. Since they never put Young in the rotation... 🙄 They're playing the Bulls.
Why the skepticism regarding OKC? It shouldn't be a question; based on what I've seen, Dallas is acting like Boston this year—taking easy wins and throwing away the big ones.🤷
I'm hoping Griffin drops another 20 or 21.

Post more often; your insight has always been valued here. 👍
As for Granger, I actually have a feeling his shooting will be abysmal—something like 4-for-15. 😁
Stinky American (mods, no offense intended, I'm referring to a comment Granger made himself: http://nbacro.com/nba/indiana-pacers...-magaraca-8708)

Keith Moore21 said:I'll take them incompetent lot :503
I watched most of the game and I can't believe the Nets, playing with only two real threats, messed up that badly and almost lost... okay, one is D-Will (arguably the best playmaker after Paul), but Morrow... man, what the hell.🤷

What’s on the slate today? If I hit a counter-bet, someone’s going to lose big. :rofl :

Not sure—might skip it entirely. I haven't had much time to dig into the stats, and I've got indoor soccer later. 😁

graniteotter6 said:Last game, all three went under. You laid out the logic nicely, though LeBron looking for the under seems like the safest bet for a while.

Even this guy is copying Granger’s over based on "our" reasoning—it’s almost too easy. s
Now you're actually tempting me to take the under just to see who ends up face-palming more—me or you. :D
Rose over? Hmm. Interesting. But did it occur to anyone that once Beasley returns, Love might actually take fewer shots? 🤷 He cleared 30 points just the other night.

That’s exactly my point. 👍

Beasley is a ball hog, and Rubio hasn't been stingy with possessions since he entered the NBA—so Love’s average could easily drop by two or three buckets. 🤷

graniteotter6, didn't realize you were following this too. 👍

Caught some Indiana Pacers action last night—the announcers mentioned Granger just put up 20+ for the fifth straight game. He’ll likely go 3-for-13 from deep today—he has a certain fondness for those stretches—but I'm just speculating here; I haven't checked his matchup or the specific line. 😁

Dallas vs. Oklahoma City? :hmm:

Could be an interesting one to watch, at least.

Keith Moore21, whenever we both pull for the same pair, it never pans out. 🙂 🤣

I woke up last night to catch the second half—the Indians had pulled ahead by +18 right around the 7 or 8 minute mark, but they barely managed to scrape a win in the end. 🙂

If the margin had been just -8.5 for Indiana, I would have personally come for Granger over this. 🤣

Indiana built up a massive 16-point cushion with just eight minutes left on the clock—only to completely fall apart during a six-minute scoring drought. Naturally, the Nets turned that 16-1 run around to pull within three. 🙂

25w/25l ; +28,867 units; ROI: +12.18%

Indiana vs. New Jersey
Pick: Indiana -9.5

Odds: 1.917

Bookmaker: Pinnacle

Stake: 6/10

I'm tired—so I’ll keep this brief: why I’m taking this matchup.

Indiana is simply the superior squad—deeper bench, better rotation, and far fewer injury concerns. Compare that to the Nets, who are missing several key pieces today including Brooks, Okur, Stevenson, and James, on top of Lopez being out long-term. Deron Williams can't carry the load alone; he's struggled with his shooting this season and turns the ball over too often. New Jersey looked abysmal two days ago, losing by 21 to a Toronto Raptors team that was playing without their two best guys, Bargnan and Barbosa. It was a disaster. Indiana, meanwhile, is rolling—they just dismantled Orlando by 21 points on the road and have won four of their last six. Defensively, Indiana is elite—ranked 4th in the league, allowing just 90.4 points per game—while the Nets are bottom-tier, sitting 26th out of 30, giving up 98.6 points. Indiana also dominates the glass, and I expect them to control the boards against Humpires and his crew tonight.
Furthermore, these teams already met this season; Indiana took it 108-94 on New Jersey's home court. There is a clear pattern here, too—Indiana has dominated this series lately, winning eight straight against the Nets and 11 of their last 12. In eight of those eleven wins, they covered the spread comfortably. They've beaten them by double digits four times in their last seven outings.

My 9.84 in the 100m doesn't mean much when Stanley is clearly faster. 🙂

I was just thinking about packing more in—though, honestly, maybe not too much. 🙂

I get there and the clerk tells me—the limit is 184.5. 🙂

Scott Jackson, next time just shoot me a DM first—then give the rest of the forum a heads-up after half an hour or so. 😉

Typical Americans. 😬

shadowjackal27 said:You're just talking nonsense.🤷

First off—I wasn't even betting on Dwight Howard yesterday. That’s why I brought up Mehmet Okur, who wasn't even in the conversation. Look, I follow Orlando more closely than anyone else—at least over the last few seasons. It was a shame when Marcin Gortat left the Magic.

You have your opinion, and I have mine. 🤷

Sure, Gortat is a very solid player—I agree there—and it was a loss for Orlando when he moved on.

But damn it, it’s blindingly obvious that Howard is the best center in the league. He’s convincing even now, while everything is going sideways and he's looking to get out of that mess in Orlando. This team deserves a guy who actually fights for a title, not a bunch of scraps like a worn-out J. Rich, Jordan Duhon, Nelson, and the rest.

Besides, the guy hasn't missed a single game due to injury in the last several seasons. Last year, if I recall correctly, he only sat out once—and that was due to a suspension.

Those free throws are killing him, especially this season, but what can you do? He more than makes up for it with offensive rebounds. He dominates on both ends of the floor.

That isn't an opinion; those are facts.

An opinion would be if you claimed that Andrew Bynum (or Michael Jordan, or any other center) had a shot at being better than Howard in his career.

The stats back Howard up—his field goal percentages, his rebounding averages from previous seasons, two or three consecutive Defensive Player of the Year awards, and his All-Star appearances. As I see it, even this season, he seems to have the highest fan vote of any player in the All-Star voting.

shadowjackal27 said:If a player misses more than 20 free throws over three games, he has no business being on the court—period. Toss in those abysmal free throw percentages, an offensive game plagued by turnovers, and picking up two quick fouls in four straight games while barely seeing 30 minutes of action... what is there even to discuss? This is why I maintain that his value lies entirely in his defensive work. If he weren't the elite defender and rebounder he is, he wouldn't even be playing in the NLB, let alone the NBA. But he is—which is exactly why they tolerate the struggles at the line.

🤦 🤦 🤦

Watch Orlando play once or twice this season and you'll realize Dwight Howard is the most overrated center in league history. 🤦

Edit:

I see you deleted that...

Howard is convincingly the best center in the league and arguably the best defender in the league. Offensively, he’s perfectly capable; there isn't a single team in the NBA that wouldn't want him on their roster. But fine, there is no point in continuing this explanation...

Leave your betting instincts at the door and face the cold, hard reality.

Way to go, Mavericks. 👋

At least Dallas and Phoenix play each other three times a week. 😍

And honestly, let’s not talk nonsense—without Dwight Howard, this Orlando team would be sitting somewhere near Charlotte in the standings.

The way he opens up space for everyone else, his rebounding numbers on both ends, the defensive presence he brings...

Looks like Steve Nash isn't playing tonight.
It hasn't been officially confirmed, but here's the word:

Suns guard Steve Nash can’t run. That’s a bad omen for anyone hoping to watch him chase down that franchise assist record tonight—or for those expecting the Suns to actually stand a chance against the reigning champion Dallas Mavericks.

Following this morning's shootaround, Nash mentioned that the bruising on his left thigh hasn't subsided. It feels remarkably similar to the injury on his right side that sidelined him during the New Jersey game earlier this season. Back then, it happened during a back-to-back; this time, even with an off-day this past Sunday, he's still going to need significant rest and immediate treatment to feel anything close to ready by tip-off at 7 p.m.

“I’ll just try to give it another seven or eight hours of rest and see if it’s ready to go,” Nash said. “Hopefully, after some treatments tonight, I'll have a shot.”

Nash noted he hasn't been able to run yet, though he did manage some shooting and light exercises this morning to try and regain some flexibility.

The odds for Dallas are already sitting at 1.56 on average. My money's on them.

Looks like Richard Jefferson is sitting out for Utah tonight.
It seems Pinnacle immediately dropped the line for Portland to 1.826, and the spread has already shifted from +2 to -1.5. It could keep moving depending on how things develop.

I see SS hasn't made a move yet.