Posts by James Taylor3

24 wins, 25 losses — up 20,614 units. ROI stands at +9.04%.

Phoenix vs. Dallas.
The play here is Dallas at -2.5.

Odds: 1.917

Betting shop: Pinnacle

Rating: 9/10

Alright, let me start by quoting myself:

James Taylor3 said:The Mavericks are heading into this matchup without Dirk Nowitzki and Vince Carter—a massive handicap on paper. However, let’s be honest: Vince Carter has been on a steep decline over the last two seasons. He’s looking desperate this year; if anything, the Mavericks might be better off without him. Delonte West and the quick Beaubois can handle his minutes much more effectively right now. To fill Dirk's spot in the starting five, we'll see last year's Sixth Man of the Year, Lamar Odom—who, frankly, struggled to find his footing in Dallas after that messy exit from the Los Angeles Lakers. That said, he stepped up for Dirk last game, putting up 16 points, 4 rebounds, and 2 assists. He also tends to feast on the Phoenix Suns—last season he dropped 22, 12, 29, and 15 points against them, averaging 19.5 PPG along with a massive 10.5 rebounds per game. He even notched 15 points in just 22 minutes during our first meeting with Phoenix this season. He should be a capable substitute for Dirk. Jason Terry is in a bit of a shooting slump, but he's starting—he's too high-caliber for this drought to last long. As for the Suns, they are the perfect kind of opponent to snap a losing streak. It’ll be an interesting veteran showdown between Jason Kidd and Steve Nash. On the defensive end, Shawn Marion should be able to stifle Grant Hill while maintaining offensive dominance. The only real advantage Phoenix holds is at center—Marcin Gortat is a tier above Haywood and Mahinmi. But Dallas plays elite defense—we’re currently third in the league, giving up only 88.4 points per game—and they play even more aggressively at home, which should cause problems for Phoenix. The Mavericks' bench is incomparably deeper and more talented than the Suns' unit. Plus, playing at home is a significant edge. The squad is motivated to keep the momentum going after two wins and to improve their record (10-7, 7th in the West). The West is incredibly tight right now, with plenty of teams fighting for playoff positioning; the Mavericks simply have to win games like this, whether Dirk is on the floor or not.
The Phoenix Suns are struggling—plain and simple. They’re playing poorly, and the roster lacks depth. Aside from Steve Nash and Marcin Gortat, there isn't much quality to speak of, and the bench is completely out of sync right now.
The Mavericks have absolutely owned this matchup lately—they've taken 9 of the last 10 games played in Dallas, usually by double digits. Last season was even more lopsided; they swept all four meetings with total authority, winning by 15 and 25 at home, and keeping it comfortable with 6 and 8-point wins on the road.
We’re only one game into the season, and the Mavericks took it by nine—98-89. They actually held a 21-point lead with seven minutes left on the clock, but they cruised a bit too hard—brought in the bench too early—and let that margin shrink to a mere nine. After those initial two stumbles against Miami and Denver, Dallas has found their rhythm at home, riding a six-game winning streak in their own arena. I expect that streak to stay alive tonight.

I wrote this just last week when these two teams faced off again. Even without Dirk Nowitzki and Vince Carter in the lineup, Dallas cruised past the Phoenix Suns. It ended up being a six-point game—nothing dramatic—but there was never any doubt about the outcome during the second half. Dallas held a double-digit lead of about 15 points at one point, mirroring exactly how that first matchup of the season went down.

Everything from my previous post still stands—with the added note that Dirk Nowitzki is back for the Mavericks. Tonight, Dallas isn't just relying on Jason Kidd; he hasn't exactly been playing at his peak this season anyway, and Beaubois has been stepping up perfectly in his absence—not to mention Delonte West isn't exactly struggling either. The Mavericks are in great shape, winning five of their last six and seven of their last ten—putting them firmly at the fourth seed in the West. Dirk took a few games off, presumably to sort out those knee issues. Dallas had a grind of a game last night—a Texas derby against the Spurs—and they eventually pulled it out in overtime. They really should have put it away much earlier, though; I believe they blew a lead of as many as 20 points. A few players saw increased minutes last night, but they had two days of rest leading up to it, so fatigue shouldn't be an issue.

The Phoenix Suns are struggling—not entirely surprising given their recent stretch. They’ve managed just one win in their last five, and only three in their last ten. To make matters worse, it looks like Steve Nash might be out tonight. Despite his age, he's been playing incredibly well lately; he actually leads the league in field goal percentage at 53%. His status remains uncertain, but current reports suggest he likely won't suit up. Even if he does, the Mavericks are my pick here. Nash is going to have a rough time defensively against a lightning-fast Beaubois, who should give the entire Suns defense—which isn't exactly elite—a hard time.

I spent some time digging through Suns fan forums looking for updates on the matchup and Nash's health, and it seems almost nobody expects them to pull off a win tonight.

Dallas has taken 12 of the last 15 matchups against them, including six straight wins. I expect them to make it seven tonight.

The Mavericks simply have the better roster. Their ambitions far exceed those of the Suns—who seem more focused on securing a better draft pick next year—and they boast much more depth. Plus, they have Dirk Nowitzki.

Bones, check your fantasy notifications—I just sent you an offer. 😉

Keith Moore21 said:🤣 Finally remembered, did you? 🤣

Forget LeBron James; this is elite http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xp6qJ7LZNlg

As soon as I saw that video Scrum posted, I knew exactly how you'd respond. 🤣

Dunking like that over a guy who's at least 7'1"—if I recall correctly, I think I read somewhere that Weiss is that tall. 🙏

shadowgardener10 said:What's your take on the Chris Paul vs. Paul Wall matchup?

Best regards. 🤣

Yeah, I caught that in the news this morning too. What a bunch of uneducated idiots. Just day after day, moving from one poorly written articleha to the nexthak. 🤦

wiredcanyon39, looks like Bosch made the headlines too.

If I were their boss, they’d be fired on the spot. I have zero patience for that kind of stuff—especially from people who should know better. 🙂

I saw someone mention on the league forum that Dallas is at 1.85; I'm leaning heavily toward them tonight, particularly if Steve Nash is out.

Keith Moore21 said:I wouldn't touch Houston if Al Jefferson isn't playing... though I wouldn't mind getting close to that Chicago Bulls cheerleader. 😍

I noticed her before I even spotted Derrick Rose in the photo. 🙂
Anyway, any of you guys around? Let me know. : coffee:

Man, my Brooklyn Nets... 🤦

🙂

Derrick Rose! 🙂

That was a brutal game in Miami.

Miami Heat vs Chicago Bulls 2 2.75 2/10

I wasn't planning on betting—but at these odds, I have to take a shot.

wiredcanyon39 said:I've already picked up a new phone and a TV—basically profited from betting enough to upgrade my gear. Now I'm starting a strategy similar to @stormyseal9/">@@stormyseal9, playing small stakes on 5/6 systems plus 2 favorites. Once those systems start hitting, things get serious. 😁

Well, now that you're technically equipped and all the prerequisites for serious betting are met... you decide to back off. 🙂

lonetiger17 said:Bulls!

Chicago! 🤷

briskotter14 said:Hey guys, I need some advice. I placed a parlay this morning (31 odds) and somehow accidentally bet the Pau Gasol over instead of the Danilo Gallinari over. I have no idea how that happened. Now I'm just waiting on him to hit the payout. I was about 90% sure Gallinari would hit his over, but I don't know much about Gasol's current form. Any insight on whether he might clear the margin? Or should I just take half the profit and go grab some food... thanks in advance. 🙂

That’s a total 50-50 shot. 🤣

It’ll likely go over, but it all depends on Kobe Bryant. When the Los Angeles Lakers drop a game the day before, he usually gets frustrated and stops passing the ball to anyone else. 🤣

24w/23l ; +28,614 units; ROI: +13.01%

Brooklyn Nets vs Toronto Raptors
Pick: Brooklyn Nets -4.5

Odds: 1.943

Betting shop: Pinnacle

Confidence: 6/10

The Nets and the Raptors are sitting right next to each other in the standings. Brooklyn is at 7-13, while Toronto is at 6-14—but don't let those numbers fool you; the momentum is moving in opposite directions. The Nets are riding high after two straight wins and are even talking about playoff contention—which I find hard to swallow, but they’re feeling good regardless. Toronto, on the other hand, had a decent start but has since spiraled, winning only two of their last ten. The main culprit is the loss of Andrea Bargnani, their leading scorer and most vital piece. On top of that, DeMar DeRozan hasn't found his rhythm this season, leaving them without a clear leader when things get tough.
Brooklyn is looking sharp. Deron Williams has stepped up significantly, taking more shots and making it count; he's gone 4-2 in their last six games. Ryan Anderson is providing steady production on both ends, Morrow is hitting threes, and the rest of the roster is starting to coalesce. Simply put, they have the better squad and a much deeper bench than Toronto.

While Brooklyn struggles with one of the league's weaker defenses, Toronto's offense is arguably worse—ranking second to last in the league, averaging a meager 87.2 points per game. They also struggle immensely on the boards, allowing opponents to grab 55.2 rebounds per game, which is the second-worst mark in the league, trailing only the Sacramento Kings.

These two teams already met earlier this season in Toronto, where the Nets walked away with a 97-85 victory—and that was with Bargnani still in the lineup for the Raptors.
Brooklyn is playing with plenty of confidence right now. This is a perfect opportunity to close the gap on that 8th seed in the playoffs, especially against a demoralized Raptors team that will be playing without their best player.
The Nets need this one.

I probably should have stayed away from the betting shops yesterday—but curiosity got the better of me. 🙂 🤣

Back at it today, hunting for those wins.

Sean Sullivan87 said:A question for you, James Taylor3 or Arthur Hill2...

If Jennings is the only real offensive threat for the home team today, logic suggests they’re going to lean heavily on him for shots—but if he’s actually the one initiating the offense, that’s a completely different story. Is it actually worth taking Jennings B. (-20.5+) at better than 1.85?

He’ll likely take more shots—he's been scoring plenty lately anyway—but we'll see what happens tonight. Personally, I’m not banking on a massive performance from him. He isn't exactly known for his consistency.

I wasn't planning on betting any NBA games today, but here we go:

24w/22l ; +32,614 units; ROI: +15.10%

Milwaukee - Los Angeles Lakers
Pick: LA Lakers -5.5

Odds: 2.03

Betting Shop: Pinnacle

Stake: 4/10

Milwaukee is missing Andrew Bogut today, along with Jackson, who's serving a one-game suspension. Along with Jennings, those two are essentially the engine room for Milwaukee.
Without Bogut, nobody can match his sheer size and mass—not to mention pairing that with Gasol's technique in the paint. Gooden just doesn't have the tools for it. Plus, Milwaukee isn't exactly a rebounding powerhouse, and losing Bogut makes them even more vulnerable there. On the other side, the Lakers have been abysmal on the road this season—sitting at 1-6. This marks the start of a brutal stretch where they play nine straight away games. They’ll be hungry to kick off this road trip with a win. They’re nearly full strength; they're just missing Blake Griffin, but he's been out for a while now anyway. If the Lakers can shut down Jennings, Milwaukee won't have an answer tonight. Even with Jennings playing well, beating a Lakers team that's finally finding its rhythm won't be easy. It looks like Kobe Bryant has settled down—he seems to realize that the less he tries to carry the load solo, the better the team's chances actually are. I trust the Lakers to pull this one off, so I'm taking the handicap.

Kenneth Bailey said:BetLive - player points:
(15.5)PHO - Marcin Gortat 1 1.85

I was just looking over the player prop lines—Marcin Gortat caught my eye. 15.5 feels high against a younger Gasol, especially given they're on the road for a back-to-back. 👍

Robin Parker90 said:Andrew Bynum under 15.5-Germany

Porque?

Aside from Gortat, I only noticed Bynum—he’s facing Milwaukee, and with Andrew Bogut out injured, they're essentially lacking a true center. Bynum should be able to use his strength and mass to exploit matchups against Gooden and guys like him. 🤷

I'm weighing the Milwaukee - Lakers game right now—might play a double. It mostly comes down to that mismatch at the center position.

Keep an eye on this matchup between Amar'e Stoudemire and Gay.
Stoudemire is struggling this season—but then again, the Rockets (tonight's opponent for the Knicks) are absolutely abysmal at protecting the paint, giving up an average of 47.1 points, which ranks third-worst in the league. On top of that, Amar'e has been tearing it up against Houston over the last three seasons, averaging 28 points. Plus, he’s got a disinterested Luis Scola providing some cover.

I wouldn't bet on Gay here—Memphis has plenty of offensive weapons to throw at Phoenix, like the quick Conley, Marc Gasol, and Mayo. Meanwhile, with Carmelo Anthony out, the Knicks will certainly be leaning heavily on their primary scoring option, so I don't see Gay being a safe bet. 🤷

ruggedgull32 said:Tonight we have Charlotte vs Washington—Wall is sitting at a 15.5 line. He put up 17 points in 33 minutes last night, and I think he can hit that number again against this matchup. That’s the first thing that caught my eye.
James Taylor3, what's your take?

I wouldn't be so sure—he’s in great shape. He’s driving hard to the rim, and he frequently draws fouls or gets those easy buckets. Honestly, against a struggling Charlotte team, he could probably drop way more points, but since his stats haven't been anything to write home about this season, don't take my word for it. 😁

Keith Moore21 said:Not really... Honestly, the Bobcats are a complete disaster right now—and Philly is absolutely killing it at home. 😲
Paul Pierce 🙏 Ever since Allen has been out, the play has looked... off. It’s hard to watch—he seems heavier, slower, more sluggish than usual. Then, out of nowhere, they lose their rhythm entirely and start missing everything right at the rim. 😁

Some interesting odds today on the LA Lakers and Memphis. 🤔

Yeah, Paul Pierce has really stepped up since taking over playmaking duties from Rondati—his game has evolved. Plus, his shooting is night and day compared to how he looked at the start of the season.

Keith Moore21 said:@James Taylor3/">@@James Taylor3, nice picks. 👍

I had a bad feeling about that San Antonio matchup—thought they might get rolled... and they didn't. 🙂
My mistake, being smarter today...

👍

Scanning the scores quickly, looks like the favorites all came through. Caught some of the Philly and Charlotte games last night; the Bobcats are a total mess right now. Also caught a bit of Boston vs Indiana—Pierce was absolutely dominant in the second half. 🙏

I expected more scoring from that San Antonio game, but luckily I didn't put anything on the over. 😁

Both of them—both of them went down. 😁

Philly took exactly a 17-point loss—just enough. 👋

They were up 30 at the start of the fourth. Doesn't matter.

22-22; +21,214 units; ROI: +10.40 units.

Portland vs Phoenix
Pick: Portland -9.5

Odds: 1.971

Betting shop: Pinnacle

Betting slip: 5/10

Portland is a significantly better squad than the Suns—even if you wouldn't think so based on that 25-point blowout in Phoenix a couple of weeks back. But let’s be real: Portland was caught in a rough spot then, coming off a grind against the Lakers and dealing with some serious fatigue. Tonight feels like a revenge game. They are dominant at home right now, sitting at 8-1, and they've got three days of rest following yesterday's matchup. They’ll bring everything they've got to secure this win. The numbers tell the story, too. Portland is averaging a solid 103.4 points at home, while the Suns have been incredibly underwhelming on the road, averaging just 89.7. To make matters worse for Phoenix, Lopez is suspended for tonight, leaving the interior duties entirely to Gortat. He's a talented player—arguably the best on the Suns right now—but he can't carry that entire load alone, especially with Camby and Thomas waiting to push him around in the paint.
Nash will likely outmaneuver a lackluster Felton—Grant Hill is dealing with some injury concerns, making his status for tonight questionable, though he honestly struggles to keep pace with an athlete like Wallace anyway—while a solid Rookie steps in to handle Aldridge. I suspect LA will have the upper hand here; they’ve been playing at an All-Star level this season. The Blazers' bench actually looks much deeper than the Suns' rotation—at least two of Crawford, Batum, Smith, or Thomas would easily slide into the Suns' starting lineup. It's payback time.

Philly vs Charlotte
Pick: Philly -16

Odds: 1.935

Betting shop: Pinnacle

Betting shop: 7/10

Charlotte is a disaster right now—they’re sitting on the worst record in the league at 3-16, they’re a measly 1-9 on the road, and they’re currently riding a six-game losing streak. To make matters worse, tonight... The entire starting five is missing—except for Diaw.The lineup features Mullens at center (11.4 PPG, 4.9 RPG), White at PF (9.3 PPG, 5.1 RPG), Maggette (12.2 PPG, 1.5 APG, 6.2 RPG), Henderson (15.4 PPG, 1.8 APG, 4.6 RPG), and Augustin (13.6 PPG, 6.6 APG, 3.1 RPG). Honestly, this roster is desperate tonight—missing two, maybe even three of their top guys. It all falls on the rookie Kemba Walker and a heavy Diaw. Philly is a solid squad on both ends of the floor—not surprising they're sitting 4th in the East with a 12-6 record and an 8-2 stretch at home.
The Philly squad might be missing Hawes and Young today, though there's a chance they suit up. Regardless—this is looking like a glorified scrimmage for the 76ers. They hold a massive advantage here, which means we’ll likely see the bench getting plenty of run tonight. While that's usually a nightmare for bettors, it might actually work in Philly's favor; with the reserves hungry to prove themselves and a bench that leads the league averaging 42.7 points per game, they're in a good spot.
The spread is massive—though honestly, it wouldn't be much smaller even if the Bobcats were at full strength (I'd say we're looking at at least -10.5). Given how things stand right now, though, this is the perfect setup for a larger mid-tier play.

Thanks, Eric Fox7. 😍
The odds for Chicago, Miami, and Portland caught my eye—pretty interesting. 🤷