Posts by James Taylor3

31w/30l ; +35,698 units ; ROI: +12.06%

New York Knicks vs. LA Lakers
Pick: LA Lakers -3.5

Odds: 1.952

Betting shop: Pinnacle

Unit stake: 6/10

Keeping this brief—gotta run:

Coming off last night's win, the Lakers head to New York. The Knicks will be playing without their two stars, Anthony and Stoudemire. With those two out, young Lin—the kid from Harvard—has stepped up, putting up over 20 points in his last three outings. We'll see if he can maintain that efficiency tonight against a frontcourt featuring Gasol and, more importantly, Bynum. Honestly, the Knicks look desperate right now—both offensively and defensively—which explains their current standing. A lot of people expected them to be battling Miami and Chicago for dominance in the East this season. As I’ve noted in previous analyses, the Lakers have a thin bench, but having Blake back provides a much-needed spark; he’s the kind of veteran who can knock down a few threes while the starters catch their breath.
They already met once this year, and the Lakers cruised to a 17-point victory at home. While LA hasn't looked particularly convincing on the road, they simply cannot afford to drop this one to a team like New York.
I think the Lakers take it—the odds and the line are too good to pass up.

New Orleans vs. Portland
Pick: Portland -6.5

Odds: 1.926

Unit stake: 5/10

New Orleans is struggling—I mentioned this a few days ago, so I won't repeat myself. They're dealing with several injuries, including their leading scorer, Gordon. They brought Kaman back onto the roster, though there's talk he won't see floor time until a trade happens. They're still missing big men Landry and Smith, whereas Portland is coming in with a full squad. New Orleans is one of the worst scoring teams in the league—second to last, actually—and they've dropped 22 of their last 24 games. In their last matchup against the Bulls, they managed only 67 points at home. They played once before this season, and Portland covered by 7 on the road; I suspect Camby wasn't playing then, and he's vital for their defense and rebounding. Plus, Aldridge finally made the All-Star Game, so he'll be motivated—as he has been all season. I'm expecting him to clear 30 points tonight.

wiredcanyon39 said:OKC 🙂

I told you all the matchups looked sketchy—you just wouldn't listen. 😬

Whatever. Hopefully things turn around today. 😁

I just checked the NBA schedule on NBA.com. I don't know about the betting lines—honestly, I doubt any of them look tempting enough to get me interested in placing a wager today. Every matchup feels unpredictable—too much uncertainty—so I think it’s best to just sit this one out.

A narrow escape for Chicago. 😁

Matthew Bennett5 said:Respect 🙏

👍

Bradley Kern6 said:Denver is missing Timofey Mozgov and Danilo Gallinari—plus Nene, Arron Afflalo, Rudy Fernandez, and Corey Brewer are all questionable.
Does anyone here actually know what's going on with these guys? Any insight on their status?

Afflalo, Nene, and Rudy will likely suit up, so it’s really just Gallinari and Mozgov who are out.

And honestly, we won't miss Mozgov much given how well Kouffus has been playing.

30w/30l ; +29,664 units ; ROI: +10.26%

New Orleans - Chicago
Pick: Chicago -9.5

Odds: 1.862

Betting shop: Pinnacle

Confidence: 7/10

The Bulls are one of the elite squads in the league—if not the best. They sit at 21-6, currently the second-best record in the NBA. They’re facing a struggling Hornets team that’s sitting at 4-21, hovering near the bottom at 29th in the league.
New Orleans struggles significantly on offense, averaging just 87.96 points per game; only three teams in the league score fewer. Meanwhile, the Bulls boast a top-tier defense that should give the Hornets a massive headache tonight. To make matters worse for New Orleans, they're dealing with a depleted roster due to injuries. Gordon has been out for a month—averaging 21.0 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 2.0 assists—but his absence still looms. They're also missing starting guard Jarrett Jack, who has been playing well with 15.8 points, 6.8 assists, and 3.8 rebounds per game. Furthermore, they'll be without starting forward Landry (11.5 points, 4.4 rebounds), as well as bench contributors Smith (8.2 points, 3.9 rebounds) and Kaman (9.2 points, 6.9 rebounds, 1.3 blocks)—though the Hornets are actually looking to move Kaman elsewhere, so he's effectively out of the equation regardless. Essentially, New Orleans is missing three starters and two key bench players, a group that accounts for roughly 65.7 points, 23.0 rebounds, and 10 assists. The Hornets have almost no depth left; their only reliable options available tonight are Ariza and Okafor. Ironically, Chicago’s defensive strength lies exactly at the 3 and 5 positions—where those two play. Even on the road, this handicap for the Bulls doesn't feel too steep to me. I expect them to stifle the Hornets' scoring; last season, New Orleans put up only 77 and 8 points in two specific matchups—and back then, they had Chris Paul and weren't dealing with this level of injury carnage.

As for the Bulls, there isn't much to say that isn't already common knowledge. They are championship contenders, Rose is returning to the lineup, they have deep rotation, they're in great form, and so on and so forth.

I'm expecting a comfortable Bulls victory—one that probably should have been a double-digit win based on the matchup.

Nicholas Chase34 said:I'd say D-Will's realistic ceiling is 21.5—plus, he seems to play much better on the road.

Just wanted to weigh in on this:

One major reason for those better away games might actually be the Nets' home arena.

Yes, the arena—because both Deron and his teammates have complained multiple times (Deron most often, from what I've seen) about the lighting situation. Apparently, the lights are positioned poorly, shining directly into players' eyes during shots, which is a massive distraction.

Deron even mentioned he hates playing in that arena because of it. 🤣

Arthur Hill2 said:And what exactly made Billups so great? A player like that is usually poison for a roster—especially when you're shooting 36% from the field.

Don't be ridiculous—Chauncey Billups is a legend, one of the best late-game players out there. Sure, his shot might go cold for a few games, but when you need someone to step up in a crunch, he’s your guy.

Nicholas Chase34 said:23.5/LaMarcus Aldridge (Portland - Houston) over @ 1.85

One of the top power forwards in the NBA this season (alongside Love). Aldridge has been incredibly consistent; it would be a mistake if he didn't make the All-Star team.
I actually think his production should pick up even more in the coming days—given how he tore it up last season leading up to the All-Star break, putting up those 30 and 40-point games. Over his last three home games, he's averaging 32 points on 60% FG. Today's matchup isn't exactly a defensive powerhouse—Luis Scola and the Houston Rockets' interior defense shouldn't be enough to slow him down. Having the crowd at the Rose Garden behind him will definitely provide an extra boost.

👍

I completely agree with everything you wrote. He'd certainly hit that number, but I've decided to stay away from betting on individual player props this season. 🙂

Yeah, I remember that—after finding out he missed the All-Star cut last year, Aldridge went on a tear, seemingly dropping 40 points in back-to-back games just to prove a point. I suspect motivation will be high again tonight. Scola won't be able to stop him—LaMarcus has the height advantage, and with those long arms, he'll have the upper hand over the Gauchos.

Edit:

Just noticed Playmaker wrote the exact same thing about Chauncey Billups. 😁

Thanks, Eric Fox7. 😁

Same to you, wiredcanyon39. 🤣

Man, there are plenty of interesting matchups today. 😠

Philadelphia looks intriguing again—as does the under for Atlanta - Indiana. Plus, Dallas could definitely take down Denver, especially if none of those Nuggets injuries suit up tonight.

Can I get today's lines? Moneyline, spreads, and totals. 😁

wiredcanyon39 said:@N/A—no luck for you today. :P

Not even close. 😢

Sacramento lost by just two—and they actually had the shot to win it. 🙂

Man, my gut was right—Tristan Thompson, Luke Ridnour, and Ricky Rubio were shooting lights out in the worst way possible—but even then, the Kings weren't much better. Doesn't matter, though. On to the next one. 😁

30w/29l ; +31,664 units ; ROI: +11.03%

Minnesota Timberwolves - Sacramento Kings
Pick: Sacramento

Odds: 3.39

Betting shop: Pinnacle

Stake: 2/10

I have to take this—it’s practically mandatory. The Timberwolves are missing Kevin Love, the guy essentially carrying them this season with 25.0 points (4th in the league) and 13.7 rebounds (2nd in the league)—including 4.2 offensive boards. That's an extra four possessions per game just from him. He's out tonight due to a suspension after taking issue with Luis Scola in the last matchup. The rest of the Minnesota roster isn't bad, per se. You have Ricky Rubio, who sees the floor well but lacks a reliable jumper; the speedy Bare, whom Evans will need to contain; Ridnour, whose recent play has arguably outpaced his actual talent level; and the volatile Michael Beasley, whose shooting percentages tend to swing wildly between desperation and decent. I suspect Beasley becomes the primary scoring option tonight. They are capable players, sure, but without Love to step up when things get tight—whether it’s via a three, a layup, or free throws—they lack leadership. I simply don't see anyone else in this Minnesota group capable of pulling them out of a hole.

The Sacramento Kings have picked up two straight wins. They're playing on a back-to-back tonight—a minor nuisance, but ultimately irrelevant. DeMarcus Cousins is an elite center; one of the better offensive bigs in the league, a strong rebounder, and quick enough that opposing centers struggle to stay with him. Both him and Beasley are inconsistent, though hopefully they find some discipline tonight. Sacramento is dealing with zero injuries—Hayes is back to bolster the defense, and their leading scorer, Thorton, has returned to provide much-needed offensive dimension.

Minnesota enters as the favorite here. Their record sits at 50% this season, while Sacramento is 9-15. However, in my view, the Kings aren't nearly the massive underdogs that these 3.39 odds suggest.

Casey White13 said:Another flop from Andre Iguodala—all because of one layup. 😍

Not sure if you caught it—but Andre Iguodala missed both free throws just seconds before the buzzer. 😬

Alex Cook said:Portland is going to be the death of me. Dammit.

Don't even bring them up—I've had enough of rooting for them, especially since they lose every single time I place a bet on them. 🙂

Man, what a waste of time. You pass up a solid three-pointer just to go chasing some cheap, low-stakes gamble. 🤣

Sean Sullivan87 said:http://www.espn.com/nba/Ostalis...-All-Star.aspx

"Dirk Nowitzki: I don't deserve an All-Star callout..."

The article mentions fans can vote—I'm curious, is voting open over there or where exactly does one go to cast a ballot?

Voting takes place on the official league website.

Respect to Dirk for being so humble. 🙏

And here’s some 🙏 🙏 🙏 praise for LaMarcus Aldridge, who truly deserves an All-Star spot.
Last week, LeBron James even posted on Twitter that LaMarcus Aldridge belongs in the All-Star Game.

So, what's your take on the bolded part? 😕

Both went through. Absolute madness. 😁

Sean Sullivan87 said:One question for Arthur Hill2 and James Taylor3... I've been following you guys for a while—mostly successful enough—so there's no reason not to jump in tonight...

From a layman's perspective... the home team is missing four players. Deron Williams is the only real threat left, and he usually drops around 20 points. Since he's essentially flying solo tonight, my logic suggests everything will fall on him—is an over realistic here? They set the margin at 21... seems odd to me, but whatever...

Now, the Bulls will likely dismantle the Nets. Derrick Rose is dealing with a minor injury (James Taylor3 ???). If/when the Bulls lead by 15, I don't see why they'd push Rose too hard; I'm thinking his minutes might drop by about 30%. Plus, Luol Deng is returning, which means fewer shots for Rose. Does anything under 25 look good?

Thanks.

Yeah, that’s a possibility, though nothing is ever a sure thing.
Deron is looking like a solid over option because he'll be taking plenty of shots today, and he's a decent shooter from deep. That said, the Bulls have a stout defense, so the real question is how efficient his drives to the rim will actually be.
In any case, if I had to choose, I'd take the over before the under.

As for Rose, I wouldn't touch the under. When he gets hot, he can drop 25 in a single half. Just look at last game—he put up 16 in the first quarter against the Milwaukee Bucks.

Arthur Hill2 said:Just to add, the Lakers are without their head coach tonight.

I completely missed that. Another point in favor of my pick passing.

Was that due to those technicals last time?

Brooklyn Nets - Chicago Bulls
Pick: Chicago Bulls -8,5

Odds: 1.87

Confidence: 5/10

Keeping this one brief—gotta run.

It’s common knowledge that the Bulls are a much stronger squad than the Nets. There’s some question regarding Rose's status tonight, but he's expected to play through the pain. Their only other real concern is Carmelo Anthony being out, though with Kyle Korver shooting as well as he is, that shouldn't be a major issue. The Bulls sit atop the East and are second overall in current standings. They boast the second-best defense in the league in terms of points allowed per game, and today they face one of the worst offenses in the league—one that's currently missing several key pieces. The Nets have been shorthanded for a while, and now they're losing Jordan Morrow due to family issues, leaving them with maybe one and a half quality players on the floor. Essentially, it's just Deron Williams and a diminished Ryan Anderson. The rest of the roster is questionable at best—the fact that an injured Andrew Bogut might start tonight says it all. Plus, they lack a true center since their top two are sidelined, so the Bulls should dominate the boards. The Nets are also on the tail end of a B2B, playing their third game in four days; they'll likely be exhausted given how high the minutes have been for their starters during recent tight games. On the flip side, the Bulls had a slightly lighter schedule, and in two of their last three outings, the starters even sat the fourth quarter—once during a blowout win against the Milwaukee Bucks and once during a blowout loss to the Philadelphia 76ers.
They already met once this season, with the Bulls taking it 110-95 at home. I don't see them having much trouble tonight either.

Scott Jackson said:Do you think they went a little too far with the 28.5 line on Durant? This game should be tense—Durant plays better on the road, but Portland does a solid job covering Kevin's spot. I see the lottery had him at 26.5? Thoughts?

True, Portland has two reliable defenders in that rotation—Wallace and Batum—and if I recall correctly, Wallace absolutely shut Durant down in their last matchup.
Then again, Durant has been the league's top scorer for two years straight; once he finds his rhythm, he can drop 50 on anyone.

Still, 28.5 is a generous line—might actually be worth taking the under. 🤷

28w/29l ; +21,119 units; ROI: +7.68%

Philadelphia - LA Lakers
Pick: Philadelphia -3.5

Odds: 1.885

Betting Shop: Pinnacle

Unit: 7/10

Philadelphia might be one of the biggest surprises this season—though if you look closer, they aren't really a surprise at all, given their roster and a bench depth that is easily among the best in the league.
Philly is incredibly convincing at home, sitting at 12-3. They recently dismantled Chicago by a massive 16 points. A couple of days ago, they also handled Miami quite convincingly; though that's hardly news, considering the 76ers have become somewhat of a regular customer for the Heat lately. As I mentioned, Philly’s greatest strength is their cohesion—ten solid, high-quality players working in unison without relying on a single "superstar," even if Iguodala is technically the designated leader. Philly boasts the league's best defense, allowing just 86.5 points per game. That number gets even more impressive at home, where they allow an absurd average of just 82.5 points. Some will argue they’ve had an easy schedule, but I wouldn't go that far—they held the Bulls to 82, Orlando to 69, Atlanta to 76, and Indiana to 86, and those are all legitimate playoff contenders. The only teams that gave them much trouble were Miami (99) and Denver (96)—and those are essentially the two best offensive teams in the league, being the only ones averaging over 100 points this season (Denver at 104.63 and Miami at 103.17). Bottom line: Philly hasn't allowed 100 points at home once this season. They aren't dealing with major injury issues either—the forward might have a minor tweak, but he'll likely play—and the return of starting center Hawes is huge; he's been playing great and is vital to their rhythm. With the young Vucevic back in the rotation too, their depth is even greater than usual. Philly is in excellent form, winning five of their last six.

The Lakers are no longer elite, and that's just a fact. The reason is simple: a top-heavy roster with three stars surrounded by role players like Barnes, Kapono, Artest (who is struggling defensively this year), Murphy, Ebanks, Character, and others. They play decently enough at home, but their road performance is a disaster—they're sitting at a measly 3-8 away from home. It's a catastrophe. To put things in perspective, the Lakers rank 19th in offense, averaging only 93.3 points (and dropping to 91.2 on the road). Their defense is actually decent—5th in the league, allowing 90.7 on average—but it completely falls apart on the road. Outside of the Staples Center, they give up 97.4 points per game, which is a staggering 12.2 points more than what they allow at home.
The Lakers' bench is abysmal—"abysmal" might actually be an understatement. When Bryant, Gasol, and Bynum aren't on the floor—or even if just two of them are missing—this team looks lost. They lack any reliable shooter who can hit a couple of threes and provide some stability.

Philadelphia has Iguodala, an elite defender who can certainly neutralize Kobe. I think Philly has a great shot at taking down the Lakers tonight, picking up another scalp and solidifying that third seed in the East—which is crucial if they want to avoid running into Miami in the early rounds of the playoffs.

steelhawk12 said:What’s the deal with all those injuries in the Hornets?
J. Jack, Carl Landry, and that center Smith who took at least three hits to the head last game and had to exit...
Has anyone actually seen anything confirming they're definitely out, rather than just being "game time decisions"?

If those guys are sidelined... then Sacramento should take this one, honestly.

Look, it isn't even morning in the States yet—don't expect any fresh updates until around 7 or 8 PM our time.