Posts by James Taylor3

Before heading to bed last night, I also took Chris Paul over 17.5 on a 2/10 split—missed that one, which explains where we stand now:

3w/3l ; +2.69 units; ROI: +13.45%

Houston vs San Antonio

Pick: Over 197.5 total points

Odds: 1.99

Stake: 4/10

We have a matchup here between two high-level shooting squads. For the Spurs, this season might be their final shot at a title—given that Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili aren't getting any younger. Last year was a letdown; despite a strong regular season, they folded in the first round of the playoffs. They’re looking for a similar start this year, hoping to string together a few wins early on. Their core strength lies in the trio of Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, and Tony Parker. They complement each other perfectly, with Patty Mills and Richard Jefferson providing support, alongside younger pieces like Blair and Hill. Last season, the Spurs were arguably the best three-point shooting team in the league, hovering near 40% from deep during the regular season.

The Rockets are a solid group, though they dealt with some bad luck last year playing in a brutal West—finishing 43-39 and still missing the playoffs. Their main weapons are the sharpshooter Kevin Martin and the reliable Argentinian Luis Scola playing the four. Beyond them, the rest of the Rockets roster is well-balanced and dependable. They are particularly tough at home, where they tend to put up big numbers and prove difficult to beat.

Both teams excel offensively (both averaged north of 104 points per game last season), while their defenses are decent, if nothing more. Historically, games involving these two in Houston tend to be high-scoring affairs. Given all that, clearing 197.5 points shouldn't be much of a stretch.

Chris Ortiz said:I caught the game about two hours ago. Honestly, neither side looked particularly sharp—the Warriors mostly just stayed in it by playing high-pressure defense. It was a dead heat heading into the fourth, then Monta essentially carried them past the Knicks single-handedly. Melo was struggling—unbelievably sluggish, missing wide-open shots all night.
I don't know, I'm actually fine with where the Warriors are at. They’re showing some defensive grit, and even Kwame is proving to be quite useful.🤷
Curry should be back for the next one. Hopefully. Though, if you ask me, he’d be better off being traded.🤷🙂

Interesting... I think I'll catch that fourth quarter later this afternoon.
😁

Chris Ortiz said:I would have played against the Mavs and the Knicks today🤷

Sacramento pulled me in too—Cousins is going to be out there looking unprepared with those big bulls in the paint. Regardless, they shouldn't be losing by eight or more.

Cousins is a problem—he’s fast for his size and weight—so this should be interesting. Maybe it wouldn't hurt to bet on Sacramento for the first half (or even just a quarter); they might start strong and then fade out. 🤷

Anyway, how did the Warriors look last night without Curry? Asking you, since you probably caught the game. 😁

Keith Moore21 said:1527 Orlando-New Jersey Nets Fri 01:00 1,15 18,0 5,40 1,07 4,15
1528 Houston-San Antonio Spurs Fri 02:00 2,00 13,0 1,90 1,70 1,65
1529 Oklahoma City-Dallas Mavericks Fri 02:00 1,45 16,0 2,80 1,35 2,35
1530 Portland-Denver Nuggets Fri 04:00 1,50 15,0 2,60 1,40 2,25
1531 Sacramento-Chicago Bulls Fri 04:00 3,60 16,0 1,30 2,90 1,20
1532 L.A.Lakers-New York Knicks Fri 04:30 1,65 14,0 2,30 1,50 2,00

Thanks. 👍

The odds on Portland seem a bit thin for my liking—though the over on Oklahoma-Dallas looks interesting.

Heading to practice now—can someone please c/p today's lines while I'm out? 😁

shadowjackal27 said:I called it on Ellis... should have grabbed the under 22.5 at 2.40 the moment that line climbed. Even though I ended up taking the over 22.5 at 1.85—once a line hits those heights, you just take the value regardless of the side. 🙄🙂 It wasn't that an over was impossible—it's just that 1.50 for the over was ridiculous.

Man, he took 22 shots and just couldn't find his rhythm—only hit 8. A measly 36%.

Complete miss on the Warriors and Knicks over. 🤦

Well, at least the Warriors' win almost made up for it. 😁

I have a feeling the Bobcats will hold Miami to a low score, making this a tight one.

analoghound21 said:I was tempted to take the over on 102.5 for the Knicks, but I ended up passing
As for this matchup, I just took the over on the Indian player
Otherwise, you've got Golden State Warriors -3.5 at 3.35 on Pinnacle😬

Anyway, this is your territory, so let's hear it...

Memphis Grizzlies vs Oklahoma City Thunder...1 at 2.00or maybe instead under 194.5or perhaps even better Oklahoma City Thunder under 97.5, and while we're at it, maybe Kevin Durant under 29.5 🤷

This game looks interesting—the Grizzlies will likely be playing with a serious chip on their shoulder. What's your take? 🙂

Man, if I actually had the motivation to walk down to the betting shop, I’d put something on that -3.5. 👍

Regarding Memphis and Oklahoma City, things could get messy. Those Grizzlies are beasts at home. During last year's playoffs, Pau Gasol and Zach Randolph absolutely bullied the Thunder's frontcourt—dominating the boards and racking up points. But then again, Oklahoma City had Durant and Russell Westbrook going wild.

I suspect Zeba and the younger Gasol will make an impact in the paint again today, but honestly, they can't stop Durant, nor can they stop Russell Westbrook (though, to be fair, Westbrook often stops himself with questionable decision-making and excessive solo play).
I wouldn't touch this game with a ten-foot pole; I'd rather just let them play it out and enjoy the show. 😁

2w/1l ; +4.16 units; ROI: +34.67%

Golden State Warriors vs New York Knicks

Pick: Over 204.5 total points

Odds: 1.943

Stake: 4/10

Over the last few seasons, these two teams have consistently delivered high-scoring spectacles—games that almost always trend toward massive totals.

Here’s how their matchups have looked over the last three seasons:

11/20/2010 NBA Golden State Warriors vs New York Knicks 119:125
11/11/2010 NBA New York Knicks vs Golden State Warriors 117:122
04/03/2010 NBA Golden State Warriors vs New York Knicks 128:117
11/14/2009 NBA New York Knicks vs Golden State Warriors 107:121
02/11/2009 NBA Golden State Warriors vs New York Knicks 144:127
11/30/2008 NBA New York Knicks vs Golden State Warriors 138:125

Insane numbers, right? 😲

Today, the line sits at a much lower level—"only" 204.5 points according to Pinnacle.
The reason behind this shift is the new philosophy from the Golden State Warriors coach, who is pushing for a more defensive-minded approach. However, his roster isn't exactly accustomed to that kind of discipline after years of playing otherwise—it’s unlikely their mentality will pivot overnight.

On the other side, the New York Knicks tried to shore up their interior defense by acquiring Tyson Chandler, a center from last year's champion Dallas Mavericks. They needed him because they were giving up far too many points in the paint last season. But even with a guy as talented as Chandler, you can't plug every hole when the rest of the supporting cast is this shaky defensively. We saw that clearly against Boston, where Rajon Rondo tore them apart with ease.

Both squads are attempting to transition from last year's pure "run and gun" style to something more disciplined, but you can't just fix a team's identity instantly by hiring a new coach or signing one defensive specialist—regardless of their talent.

The Warriors possess a heavy-hitting offense led by the stellar Monta Ellis, who honestly deserves an All-Star nod by now. Then there's the young, agile, and highly gifted Stephen Curry (though his status for tonight is uncertain due to a minor injury), along with the reliable David Lee. Think of those three as a mini Miami Heat—three rising superstars in the making. Plus, they have one of the league's best shooters in Dorell Wright. For depth, they're getting help from new center Kwame Brown and Andris Biedrins.

The Knicks rely heavily on two superstars, Carmelo Anthony and Amar'e Stoudemire. They actually tried to add a third piece this summer in Chris Paul, but that fell through. They still play a fast-paced game characterized by high scoring and poor defense. Douglas is the starting Point Guard and he's decent, but the defense remains porous. Carmelo and Amar'e have never been particularly interested in defensive duties, so most of the heavy lifting to prevent buckets falls to Fields and Chandler.

I expect tonight to be defined by fast transitions, lapses in defense, flashy plays, and—most importantly for my bet—plenty of points. 😁

Additionally, I don't think the edge the Knicks have tonight is as significant as the oddsmakers suggest. The Warriors are a tough out on their home floor, and the Knicks haven't been particularly convincing on the road. To me, the 2.53 odds on the home side at Pinnacle looks undervalued, regardless of whether Curry suits up or not.

So, I'm taking:

Golden State Warriors - New York Knicks 1 @ 2.53

for a stake of 2/10

Thanks. 👍

Rough offer—honestly, nothing catches my eye except for the mention of Indiana Jones. 🤷

I’ll dig into the details this afternoon and let you know how I'd play it.

Can someone please c/p today's basic NBA lines? 😍

analoghound21 said:I have a feeling people will be cursing his name until the end of the season 😬

Minnesota needs to start playing better on the road—otherwise, don't even bother looking at the playoffs. 🤷

Personally, I don't see Minnesota having a shot at the playoffs. They lack the depth to crack the top ten in a West that's incredibly competitive right now. 🤷

A fake punt here—Indiana is playing away, right? I suspect the spread would be even wider if they were at home. 😁
The Pacers should take this one; they're the better side, boasting a balanced roster where five players can consistently drop at least 15 points.
Granger is struggling again—just a continuation of those poor shooting numbers from last year. 🙄

The Blazers are just going through the motions. 😁

Benjamin Martin72 said:Boško Buha underperforming

Boško Buha. 🤣

I think that’s a solid plan. 👍

analoghound21 said:How was Nelson Felton playing yesterday?

Solid. He picks up the pace, pushes teammates on the break, and creates space via the pick and pop for open looks—especially for LaMarcus Aldridge, who capitalized on that perfectly.

He did spoil the impression slightly toward the end of the game with a few turnovers and rushed shots at the rim—mistakes the 76ers exploited to close the gap.

I'm out. 👋

Both teams played their season openers last night—both came away with wins. The Trail Blazers took care of business, while the Kings handled the Lakers.
Portland is clearly the superior squad. They looked sharp against a solid Philadelphia team last night, showing balance in both transition and half-court sets. Honestly, I’m a bit surprised by how cohesive they look already, especially considering the loss of Roy Hibbert and the integration of two key new pieces into the rotation.
The Blazers are playing at a much faster clip than last year; Nelson Felton is pushing the pace, forcing teams into transition where they rack up easy buckets.
Defensively, they remain stout. Having Tyson Camby healthy is huge—he owns the glass, cleans up everything, and his ability to secure tip-offs creates extra possessions on offense.

Sacramento is a young group that isn't quite playoff-ready yet. There’s potential there—specifically with DeMarcus Cousins, Greivis Vasquez, Tyreke Evans, Wayne Hickson, and Louie Felette—but they play a chaotic style. It’s loose, high-octane basketball, but their defense is an afterthought. Losing an experienced big like Eric Dalambert was also a massive blow to their interior defense.

I think a Portland victory is highly probable, and they should cover this 7.5-point spread as well; the value on Pinnacle is too good to pass up.
For context, the Blazers held a 16-point lead in the fourth quarter against Philly last night, though the 76ers nearly clawed back because they just couldn't miss—hitting five or six threes, some from way downtown.
I don't see Sacramento capable of pulling off a similar comeback. Expect Portland to win tonight, likely through sheer dominance in the paint against the Kings' frontcourt.

Keith Moore21 said:180.5 in the spread... and I'm reading here that the Atlanta coach is promising a high-tempo game this season—mostly because of Teague. He says everyone else needs to keep up with his pace, and we all know how fast that guy moves 😁 well, results vary... if that's the case, maybe pair a Miami Heat win with a Portland Trail Blazers blowout... nothing fancy for Miami, just what I mentioned to you this morning...

I don't know about that. 👍

Look, I'll admit I'm a bit out of the loop on certain teams—I'll need to do my homework. 😁

Keith Moore21 said:James Taylor3, what's your take on Nets vs. Atlanta? That @1.55 line on Atlanta looks solid to me... their lineup of Teagua, Johnson, Williams, Smith, and Horford seems great—plus T-Mac, Stackhouse, Pachulia, and Collins coming off the bench. The Nets are basically just Deron and Humphries; the rest of the roster isn't much to write home about. 🤷

To be honest, I haven't a clue.
I haven't kept up with either squad heading into this season—especially not Atlanta. They were one of those unpredictable teams last year, capable of beating anyone but also prone to losing to the basement dwellers.

The Nets are going to miss Lopez quite a bit; I doubt anyone can really step up to support Deron.

Atlanta is the better team, sure, but it’s still the start of the season—you can see how erratic the results are.

If the total is under 185, I'd personally lean toward the under—just a gut feeling. 😁

James Castillo8 said:Kobe Bryant (-26.5 points+) for Lakers vs. Utah Jazz — honestly, I don't see anyone else making a bigger impact today. If he hits 5+ assists and 5+ rebounds alongside that, it's almost a lock. It feels easier to hit those props than the final score; I have a feeling Kobe is playing with a massive chip on his shoulder today. 😳

Given all that, taking the Lakers (-10.5) at 1.30 seems like a solid play. 😉

The problem is when Kobe gets angry—he starts forcing shots and trying to do everything himself, which is usually disastrous for the Lakers.

Look at that last possession against the Chicago Bulls a couple of days ago. Kobe takes the final shot to win it, surrounded by three Chicago defenders, and instead of finding a wide-open Pau Gasol under the rim, he forces the shot anyway... Naturally, he gets blocked.

Lawrence Vaughn3 said:I know he’ll adjust—but even if he drops two 30-plus point games back-to-back, they aren't going to move that line down to 29.5. As for the odds... yeah, I completely screwed myself on that one. 😢
I was feeling about 90% confident in this over—at least until Brook Lopez gets back into the rotation. We're looking at maybe fifteen games before then.

Sure, he’ll put up big numbers while Lopez is out—but if he drops 30 points in a few games straight, the oddsmakers will just tighten that line back down to 25 or 26.
Personally, I don't see him scoring that much—so there won't be any massive shifts in the spread. I'd cap him at maybe 24 or 25 points.

Nicholas Chase34 said:Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics.
Rondo.
The choice is clear—pick one. Under 16.5 points — 1.85. DraftKings ☕

Solid matchup. Rondo isn't going to find it that easy to score against Wade and his crew—not compared to how they handled those porous Knicks. If Pierce shows up tonight, Rondo’s over becomes even less likely.
In any case, it’s a very solid pairing. 👍

James Taylor3 said:I think the under looks pretty solid for the Charlotte Hornets vs Milwaukee Bucks game. 👎

Both teams have some of the worst offenses in the league. The Bucks were bottom-tier in almost every offensive category last season, and Charlotte—now without Ben Wallace or Joakim Noah—wasn't much better. Both squads play at a very slow pace and hold up well defensively; the line they're offering feels a bit too high, so I’m taking the under with a 4/10 confidence level.

Cleveland Cavaliers vs Toronto Raptors over 3/10 👍

Both teams were among the league's worst last year, defined by desperate defense and decent scoring. Cleveland landed huge talent in the draft and is expected to step up this year, while Toronto is unlikely to make much headway. Either way, the over seems worth it—it's hard for these two to keep an opponent under 90 points, and I expect at least one of them to hit triple digits.

As for the other matchups, I wouldn't be surprised to see upsets from the New Orleans Pelicans or the Memphis Grizzlies.

1 win, 1 loss.

In that Charlotte Hornets vs Milwaukee Bucks game, 22 baskets dropped in the final two minutes—so there you go. 🙄
The upset from last night was New Orleans. If only I had played it.
🙂
I'll be keeping a separate tracker specifically for my NBA picks.

Current status: 1w/1l (-0.94 units)