Posts by James Taylor3

James Taylor3 said:Today, I’m taking the Lakers spread as a single, plus one more casual little parlay:

LA Lakers (-13.5) vs Phoenix | 1 | 3.20
Detroit vs Dallas | 2 | 1.45
Portland vs LA Clippers | 1 | 1.55
Memphis (+10.5) vs Oklahoma | 1 | 1.30

@ 9.35 stake — practically pocket change

And my single bet: Portland vs LA Clippers 2/1 | 6.50 👎

The stake here is also negligible.

It was a good night—felt it coming.

I spent a good chunk of last year betting player props—didn't go well. I eventually realized the smartest move is to just stay away from them, so I haven't touched a single one this season, nor do I plan to. 😁

Nicholas Chase34 said:As of today, the split on SS stands at 59.60% to 40.40% in favor of the under. 😁 👍

Hey, if you're up for it, give us an update on those odds roughly every two or three weeks—I'm genuinely curious to see how it trends.
I've always maintained there are more unders than overs, and sticking to the under is the better play. 😁

I'm taking this Lakers spread as a single today, plus I’ll throw together one more half-baked parlay:

Lakers (-13.5) vs Suns - 1 - 3.20
Pistons vs Mavericks - 2 - 1.45
Portland vs Clippers - 1 - 1.55
Grizzlies (+10.5) vs Thunder - 1 - 1.30

@ 9.35 stake — practically peanuts

And my single: Portland vs Clippers 2/1 6.50

Stake is a joke here, too.

7w/11l ; -2.1 units; ROI: -2.73%

LA Lakers vs. Phoenix Suns

Pick: Lakers -8.5

Odds: 2.09

Betting shop: Pinnacle

Stake: 6/10

The Lakers opened the season 6-4—not spectacular, but hardly a disaster considering they played 10 games in just 15 days while other teams were playing maybe six or seven. Plus, Bynum missed those first four.
Things are starting to click—they've taken three of their last four. Kobe is still forcing it, but his shot is falling well enough that it doesn't look nearly as bad. Gasol remains solid, and Bynum is simply dominating; he’s physically overwhelming most centers in the league, including the Suns' Gortat. Artest has had a rough start to the year—his defense has slipped and his offensive game is lacking. Fisher is getting older, though he holds his own and can always chip in with a three. The Lakers' bench isn't anything special, and they’re still without McRoberts today—that's five straight games for him. Between Gasol’s scoring, Bynum's presence on both ends, and Kobe, the Lakers have the edge. They are formidable at home, and I don't see the Suns being able to cause much trouble tonight despite their decent form. Nash and Hill are aging, and Gortat might be their best asset. They lack a true superstar to carry them through the clutch moments—certainly not Gortat, Dudley, or Warrick, and Nash and Hill are veterans who struggle to clear 25 minutes. In my view, Phoenix is one of the weaker teams in the West, if not the entire league, and I don't give them much of a chance tonight. More importantly, I expect the Lakers to win this comfortably; they dominate the paint, Artest and Barnes will keep Hill in check, and Nash should hold his own against an aging Fisher—though Kobe could easily step in there given his defensive capabilities. On top of that, Phoenix has always been a poor road team, so a double-digit Lakers victory seems likely.

Eric Fox7 🙏

At first glance, the Lakers spread looks like a solid play—I think I'll take it.

The -13.5 @ 3.30 isn't even that steep. 🤔

I’ll probably also put a small amount on the Portland Trail Blazers 2/1 @ 6.50; they've been much stronger in the second halves this season, whereas they tend to struggle early on—especially during those first quarters.

William Price66 said:Granger is 90% OUT for tonight—food poisoning.

Given how poorly he's been playing lately—and considering we have a decent bench option—this might actually work out for the Pacers tonight. 😁

Don't have the bandwidth for deep dives today—just dropping the picks I'm riding with:

Phoenix-Portland 2 @ 1.80 SS 5/10

Might actually be worth grabbing Portland 1/2 at 5.75—they tend to ramp things up in the second half, and they've hit that halftime switch a few times already this season.


New Orleans-Denver 1 @ 2.75 Fortuna 3/10

Nancy Hill2 said:Both will play, but why take the risk with Atlanta? They just lost Tracy McGrady anyway—who isn't even on the market right now.

All that’s left now is Portland vs. LA Lakers. I caught the Portland game against Oklahoma the other night—LaMarcus Aldridge played a hell of a game, but they really only pulled it off because Kevin Durant had an off night. The guy went 8-26 from two and 1-7 from three. Honestly, he hasn't looked this bad since he turned pro. 😛
I’d narrow it down to one of two plays here. The first one that comes to mind—half-time score of 2 at 2.15. The second option—Andrew Bynum under 18.5. Pau Gasol is going to grab more shots in the paint tonight—Bynum won't get his rhythm playing alongside LaMarcus Aldridge.

You aren't exactly well-informed—not that anyone really knows.

Where are you getting the idea they'll both play when nobody actually knows that yet...
Tracy McGrady hasn't been on anyone's radar for quite some time—and it wasn't just tonight.

Andrew Bynum won't be looking to pair up with LaMarcus Aldridge—he’ll go with Marcus Camby instead, who is a far superior defender compared to Aldridge.

It’s not that Durant had a bad night just because he couldn't find his rhythm—it’s because Ben Wallace and Nicolas Batum played him absolutely suffocating defense. Almost every time Durant went up for a shot, one of those two had a hand right in his face.

I'm going to take a skip today. 😁

Nothing particularly stands out to me, so I won't force it.

Eric Fox7 said:Danny Granger 2/13 :isusepremilibože:

Granger is just a straight-up whiner—and honestly, a pretty dim guy too:

I actually love watching him score a handful of points; the guy just knows how to slide into a bad stretch where nothing seems to go right. Besides, the Pacers have plenty of offensive options this season. You've got Eric Collison, Roy Hibbert, Russell West, and Tyler Hansbrough. 😁

And last night, he was being guarded by LeBron James, who shut him down exactly as expected. Damn.

Boston covers the spread. 👋

The big -19.5 favorite missed too—the Celtics held a 23-point lead with just 44 seconds left, then gave up a basket to end up winning by 19 with two seconds on the clock. 🙂 🤣

Doesn't matter much, though—I already scaled back my action on that one from 3/0 to 2/10.

Memphis pulled it off. 👍

The only miss was the over on Toronto-Cleveland, but whatever—finished the day solidly in the green. 😍

Terry Rogers57 said:Regarding Boston—everything you said holds water. They could easily walk away with a 30+ point blowout if they feel like it. Personally, I usually steer clear of betting against them on the spread; they're veterans, and once they get a comfortable lead, the rotations start shifting and things get sloppy. It’s a dilemma, though. NJ is a mess, but I wonder how this plays out when Boston brings in their third unit late in the fourth quarter—😁who knows
.
Plus, the margin is sitting at 181—that implies a gritty game, doesn't it? Looking back at their last three results against Washington and Detroit—games they should have absolutely dismantled, yet they ended up hovering around a +10 or +12 margin—this looks pretty tricky if you ask me.🤷

I haven't a clue, but I think they should comfortably cover that spread.
The third unit isn't half bad—Bradley Beal, Patrick Dooling, and the rest. They can likely hold onto whatever cushion the stars build up. 🤷

It might also be a decent play to bet on the New Jersey Nets scoring under 83.5 points.

Minnesota - Memphis
Pick: Memphis

Odds: 2.58

Betting site: DraftKings

Unit: 3/10

I'm taking this one because I see value in Memphis. In my view, Minnesota doesn't justify being such heavy favorites here—even if they are playing significantly better than last season. I might have put down a few more units if I hadn't already gone heavy on Boston, but three is plenty.
Essentially, Minnesota—led by Kevin Love and Unknown—is playing much better than last year. They’re actually picking up wins now, and even their losses have been tight.
However, as Sam Diaz mentioned, Minnesota's bench is looking pretty thin for this matchup; most of their depth is sidelined with injuries. Then there's Unknown, who is technically the second man on the roster, but he’s notoriously inconsistent—you never really know what you're going to get.

Memphis is missing Zach Randolph, who will be out for the next eight weeks:

Grizzlies forward Zach Randolph will miss up to eight weeks after magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) revealed that he suffered a slight tear of the medial collateral ligament in his right knee

On the other hand, the Grizzlies have Marc Gasol anchoring the paint—he's elite on both ends of the floor. Plus, Mike Conley is back to running the show and setting the tempo. They also have a versatile defender who can chip in offensively when needed. Then there's their main guy, Rudy Gay, who's in good shape, though he could still be even better. The bench offers decent depth with Sam Young, the perennial talent O. J. Mayo, and backup playmaker Mario Chalmers. It's a solid squad, all things considered.

Minnesota is the favorite, sure, but not nearly as much as the odds suggest. If I were looking at this elsewhere, I'd want closer to 2.20 on Memphis; therefore, I'll just take the value here.
Memphis is the better team compared to the Timberwolves—they have more depth, and I think betting on them at these numbers makes sense.

Toronto - Cleveland
Pick: Over 191.5 points

Odds: 1.85

Betting site: Unknown

Unit: 3/10

I wrote about this matchup a few days ago when these same teams met in Cleveland. The line was 194.5 then, and it ended 96-104.
The line is even lower today, so I'm leaning toward the over again. Both of these teams are defensively lackluster, yet they can produce offensive output against teams in their tier. Toronto has actually been in decent form lately. They lost to Orlando in the final two minutes after hanging tough for 46 minutes, only to turn around and surprise the New York Knicks at Madison Square Garden with a 90-85 win.
Andrea Bargnani and Jose Calderon have been in great form and are the primary reasons for the Raptors' recent success, alongside the flashy DeMar DeRozan.

Cleveland hasn't improved much, but the rookie Kyrie Irving has integrated well and is playing solid ball. They also have guys who could give Toronto trouble tonight, like Unknown, Unknown, and Klay Thompson.

I'm expecting another high-scoring affair; historically, games between these two tend to end with high totals on both sides.

Bradley Kern6 said:It looks like a kiss—or maybe just a close call. 😁

Maybe I did—but they'll probably just hand them back to me tomorrow when I go to collect my winnings. 😁

Eric Fox7 said:It’s your own fault for deactivating your account. 😁

Listen, man—I’m better off without those online betting accounts. I don't go wild chasing tickets.
On DraftKings, they really only focus on the NBA and international play—you rarely see anything local available, even for a tiny stake. 😁

Terry Rogers57 said:Luis Ariza isn't playing—Philly is sitting at -5.5 on the betting sites, and people have already started taking that side. The German bookie is still holding at 1.8, while DraftKings opened around 1.50.

I’m leaning toward a heavy underdog play—under 182.5 points at 1.86.

Today's slate looks solid—I’d probably take five or six parlays from this lineup. 🙂

Bradley Kern6 said:Is Nitko not playing for the Minnesota Timberwolves?
I might just have to buy myself a gift for being so wrong.

I'm taking the two-team parlay.
I'll explain my reasoning later—right now I'm glued to DraftKings, and those damn overnight shifts at the bank are killing me.

6w/8l ; +1.10 units; ROI: +1.86%

Boston-New Jersey
Pick: Boston -12.5

Odds: 1.85

Betting site: Unknown

Stake: 8/10

Boston is an experienced, battle-hardened squad. With Paul Pierce back from a minor injury, the Celtics can finally breathe a little easier. Rajon Rondo has come out of the gates this season looking sharp—he’s playing high-level ball and even finding his rhythm from beyond the arc.
The Celtics are formidable at home—they rarely drop games there—and their home defense is particularly aggressive and disciplined. They'll be missing veteran center Jermaine O'Neal today, but they’ll slot in the rookie Unknown, who has looked quite capable over his first few outings this season.

As for the New Jersey Nets, they entered the season already shorthanded, losing their primary center and effectively their second-best player, Brook Lopez, who isn't expected back for another month.

To make matters worse, they're heading into this matchup without their best player and one of the premier floor generals in the league, Deron Williams.

Deron Williams told reporters at this morning's shootaround that he will not play in the Nets' game tonight against the Celtics.

He is their engine—averaging 17.0 points, 6.0 assists, and 3.8 rebounds per game.

On top of that, the Nets are also without their third-leading scorer, power forward Kris Humphries (12.4 points and 10.0 rebounds).

Starting power forward Kris Humphries will be alongside Williams on the bench tonight, DJ Augustin also said at shootaround.
Humphries was hoping his sprained left shoulder would heal in time to play tonight, but he will miss his second straight game.

The Nets are struggling—badly. They’re averaging a meager 85 points per game, and with a 1-5 record, they're currently losing by an average of 13.8 points. Aside from their lone win earlier this season, they've dropped five straight. They’re missing three of their top players today, and frankly, the rest of the roster is bottom-tier (http://espn.go.com/nba/team/roster/_...ew-jersey-nets). I don't see them keeping it close against a solid Celtics team, so I'm going with a high stake here after a bit of a dry spell.

I'm also taking:

Boston (-19.5) - New Jersey 1 3.30 3/10

That isn't an unreasonable call. The Nets have been losing by massive margins all season even when Deron Williams and Kris Humphries were actually on the floor.

Terry Rogers57 said:Honestly, I have no idea—mostly because English just handles sports terminology much more naturally. 😕

Deron Williams will not play on Unknown.

There are enough expressions if you actually use your imagination.

Especially when dealing with "questionable" status or betting odds. 😁

Instead of saying "big time," you could always say "total blowout." 😁

I didn't realize Deron Williams was out today. This could easily be a blowout—a massive win for the Boston Celtics. 😬

Terry Rogers57 said:Dallas -8

It’s about time we actually see some favorites live up to the hype—I've been waiting a week for a matchup like this. Phoenix is weak; even when they were decent, they usually left here with a backdoor loss. Dallas is sitting at 2-4 after a miserable start, so there's no room for complacency now. They beat Oklahoma City last game, had a day off, and having Vince Carter, Odom, and Baron Davis on the bench provides at least some security against a backdoor cover—which is my main concern since they have a tough Texas derby tomorrow. Hopefully, Phoenix doesn't fall apart again and give up +10 in the final quarter. Regardless, this looks like a classic blowout to me; -8 feels like it's 3 or 4 points too low...

Denver -xy

No spread set yet, but whatever it ends up being
Last night, the shooters missed and Memphis covered -6.5, hoping the Kings might pull an upset today, but instead, they just got dismantled by 20. That means they're 0-2 on the road with two blowouts under their belt, and now they're facing a back-to-back in Denver, high up in the mountains. They're likely going to get crushed again...

Phila around 1.75-1.80

New Orleans is struggling with injuries. They played without Ben Gordon until now, and now Luis Ariza is out too—both are questionable for tonight. Gordon will probably play, and if both suit up, those odds are solid. If not, the line will probably drop to 1.35 online 😁...nobody has posted it online yet; one guy is holding firm at 1.80, while others are at 1.75, so let's see

Odom, Carter, even Baron Davis are in terrible shape; their shooting percentages are abysmal—they can't hit anything. 🤷
Then again, who else is going to take it easy on the Suns? 😁

Man, why on earth do you use so many English loanwords? 🤷

Nothing personal, I just have an allergy to that kind of phrasing. 😉

shadowgardener10 said:How high are the player over/under odds usually at international betting sites? Because what we have here is terrible—they basically rob you. They offer 1.85, then tack on another 5% in manipulative fees. 🙂

It depends—the lines fluctuate quite a bit there, but they start out much higher than our local 1.85. At DraftKings, I think the opening is around 1.953, give or take.

Dennis Doyle44 said:Maybe check the official site before you weigh in.

Just click on the player you're looking for—you'll find their career stats and totals right there, broken down by season. That NBA Vol covers individual games this season, and you can dig into season splits too. You can see how they perform after a day of rest, home versus away, or specifically against the Phoenix Suns...

It just takes a modicum of effort, rather than none at all.

American sports have a million different statistical resources available.

Beyond the official league site, you’ve got ESPN, Yahoo, CBS Sports, Basketball Reference, and plenty of others. Honestly, just Google "NBA player statistics" and everything pops up.

The data is all there.