Yuriy Zhirkov under 27.5 passes 1.83 bet365 Egypt had 32 passes with 49% possession, while Saudi Arabia racked up 35 passes despite only having 38% possession—he wasn't even playing against Uruguay. Now they're heading into a match against Spain, who are basically the kings of ball possession and passing games, so I expect him to land somewhere around the 20-pass mark.
Christensen under 52.5 passes 1.66 bet365 His numbers in the group stage were: France 30, Australia 72, Peru 48. Look, the Australia game was totally irrelevant, so now he should land somewhere between his performance against France and Peru. Besides, the Danes are going to be playing nothing but pure defense, so he won't have much time on the ball at all.
Ignašević under 26.5 passes 1.83 bet365 It's the exact same situation as Zhirkov here. His pass counts so far: Uruguay 22, Egypt 31, Saudi Arabia 38.
I'm putting my money on Nicolás Otamendi to pull in over 57.5 passes at 1.33 on bet365. So far, the numbers have been sitting at Iceland 76, USA 73, and Nigeria 68. Now, there’s a lot of talk that Argentina is probably going to just hand the ball over to France—the rumor is they'll be playing without Gonzalo Higuaín and Sergio Aguero, instead slotting in Pavon and Angel Di Maria on the wings while letting Lionel Messi play as a false nine. But honestly? Even if that happens, this margin is way too slim to rely on. Look at the track record: the Frenchies barely managed 55% possession against Australia despite spending the entire match chasing the game, they only hit 43% against Peru, and that 68% they put up against Denmark doesn't mean a damn thing by any metric. If we're being real, Nicolás Otamendi shouldn't even be on the pitch unless he's hitting at least 70 passes.
I’m putting my money on Edinson Cavani to hit over 2.5 shots at 1.80 on bet365. Against Egypt, they managed six shots, then four against Saudi Arabia and four more against Russia. Compare that to Portugal, who let Spain take thirteen shots, fifteen against Morocco, and seven against Iran. Looking at the matchup here, I think Uruguay could really find some rhythm moving forward, and honestly, I expect Edinson Cavani to stick to his usual shooting numbers. Because of that, I feel like this shot margin was missed.
I’m looking at Nicolás Otamendi to go over 57.5 passes, currently sitting at 1.33 on bet365. So far, the numbers have been sitting at Iceland at 76, USA at 73, and Nigeria at 68. There’s a lot of talk that Argentina will likely just hand possession over to France—people are guessing they'll play without Gonzalo Higuaín and Sergio Aguero, instead putting Pavon and Angel Di Maria on the wings while letting Lionel Messi roam as a false nine. But honestly? Even if that happens, this margin is way too thin. Look at the track record: the French barely managed 55% possession against Australia despite attacking relentlessly to hunt for a win, they only hit 43% against Peru, and that 68% they put up against Denmark doesn't mean anything by any metric. At this rate, Nicolás Otamendi won't be able to touch the ball enough to stay relevant if he isn't seeing at least 70 passes.
I'm looking at the Font line for under 48.5 additions, sitting at 2.25 on bet365. Look at the numbers for Fonte: he had 33 passes with only 33% possession against Spain, then bumped it up to 38 passes with 45% possession against Morocco, and finally hit a massive 76 passes when they held 74% possession against Iran. Now, let’s be real—that stat against Spain doesn't mean much, and that number against Iran isn't particularly telling either, though the Morocco game shows a bit more substance. I’m expecting Portugal to control a bit more of the ball than that 45% they managed against Morocco, but honestly, I don't think that's enough to push Fonte to grab another 10 or so passes, especially given the juicy odds being offered on this bet. You could apply the same logic to... I’m looking at the Carvalha line at 64.5, specifically betting on over 1.5 at 1.57. It feels like a solid play if you're following the momentum. They’re looking pretty much identical in terms of the numbers they're putting up.
I’m looking at Godin to stay under 47.5 passes, currently sitting at 3.00 on bet365. Against Egypt, they were attacking the whole match and held 59% possession, racking up 68 passes. Then look at the game against Saudi Arabia, where they didn't have nearly as much control with only 46% possession, or the match against Russia—where they faced a red card as early as the 36th minute—they had 51 passes despite having 57% possession. It’s clear that Portugal isn't exactly a team obsessed with ball possession, but I am absolutely certain that Uruguay won't be sitting on anything close to 60% today. If that's the case, this margin doesn't look nearly as crazy as it does at first glance. Given these odds, this is definitely a play worth taking.
I'm looking at Gonzalo Higuaín taking under 2.5 shots, currently sitting at 1.72 on bet365. I’ve laid everything out in my analysis regarding Otamendia, but look—the word on the street is that neither he nor Aguero will be in the starting lineup. That gives us a perfect "Plan B" where Aguero could start and let him come off the bench later, which works just as well for our purposes. If you look at his recent run, he started and played the full match against Nigeria, managed two shots there. Against the US, he only had one shot in 36 minutes, and then he barely saw the field against Iceland, playing only the final six minutes. Honestly, I think it's worth taking a gamble here; even if he does end up in the starting eleven, this could still easily go our way.
Uruguay vs Portugal under 4.0 yellows at 1.85 on bet365. Both teams have been playing pretty clean up to this point. Uruguay hasn't even picked up a single yellow card in their first two matches; the only time they saw one was against Russia. On the other hand, Portugal grabbed one yellow against Spain and another against Morocco, but then everything went sideways against Iran when they racked up four. Honestly, I don't see that happening again, and even if they did hit those numbers, we’ve got our money back with the roll-over. Look at the ref from the Brazil vs Switzerland game—he handed out four yellows, three of which went to an aggressive Swiss side that was playing like that specifically after they scored to make it 1-1. Then you look at the Poland vs Colombia match, where he only handed out two.
cosmicheron21 said:I'm heading out to put money on Panama vs Tunisia being over 3.5 yellow cards, and right at that exact moment, the odds tank from 2.30 down to 1.85 (SS)🤦
The odds have been plummeting everywhere online since early this morning.
Gerald Carter53 said:I remember playing the draw for the France match once, mostly because both sides seemed perfectly happy with a tie. We've got a fascinating situation today in the group with England and Belgium where they're facing off, and Belgium might end up in second place just because of a single yellow card advantage. Taking second place means an easier draw later on. Just imagine if Senegal or Japan comes out on top of that group and ends up in the Round of 16 against them. Then in the quarterfinals, you're looking at Switzerland or Sweden. By the semifinals, it's anyone from the pool of America, Denmark, Spain, or Russia. Or maybe Colombia takes first, which would mean facing them in the Round of 16, while the rest of the bracket stays the same. It’s hard to believe England and Belgium would intentionally throw a game, though. Maybe they settle for a draw that keeps everyone satisfied? In that case, those yellow cards could be the deciding factor. And who's going to stop someone from picking up a card that doesn't look intentional, especially since FIFA claimed they'd punish such things? 🙂 Of course, those yellows can become a massive headache before they're wiped from the record, but... 🙂 nothing in sports surprises me anymore.
Expect plenty of lineup changes on both sides; those bench players are probably more than happy to pick up a yellow card just to stay active. I took the over 3.5, and honestly, the odds are great—it feels like real value to me.
Tunisia vs Panama/Panama over 2.0 yellow cards @ 2.05 on Marathon Aside from Korea, Panama is easily one of the roughest teams in this tournament. While Korea might commit the most fouls, Panama has by far the highest number of actual yellow cards. They are completely undisciplined; they complain constantly, make some seriously nasty tackles, and frankly, they could have walked away with even more cards than they already have. They picked up five against Belgium and three against England. Since they’re playing a team today where they actually stand a chance at winning, I think their aggression level will be way higher than when they were getting hammered 5-0 by England at halftime and losing all hope early on.
The Mexicans have been throwing around so many complaints about that match against Switzerland; they’re still dragging out old arguments over it, whining to FIFA about the officiating and claiming they were robbed. Honestly, the whole thing just reeks of deep-seated frustration on their end. They actually have a shot at advancing, though it’s a massive uphill battle since they have to face Brazil, but you can bet they aren't going to roll over without a fight. Looking at the stats, they picked up two yellows against Costa Rica in the opener and four against the Swiss, so I’m fully expecting their trademark aggressive style to hit a breaking point today. Brazil is always a magnet for yellow cards because referees tend to go out of their way to protect stars like Neymar, and let's be real, he loves to sell the contact. The Swiss racked up three yellows against Brazil, while Costa Rica kept it clean with just one, but I doubt those numbers have much to do with what we'll see in this specific matchup.
My bet is on Mexico picking up more yellow cards in this match—it's sitting at 1.69 on Marathonbet. On top of that, the team total for Mexico to go over 2.5 cards is priced at 2.17, which honestly looks like a solid play worth testing out.
Here’s something I honestly think makes perfect sense:
I’m looking at the Korea game and thinking there's some serious value in taking Korea over 16.5 fouls at 2.01 on Marathon. Honestly, things are bound to get physical out there, and I can see them getting whistled quite a bit. Korea might honestly be the most aggressive squad in this entire Super Bowl, and if you look at the stats, the numbers don't lie. They slapped Sweden with 23 fouls and then turned around and laid down 24 against Mexico—that is absolutely insane. I’m expecting Germany to push even harder now, looking for more penetrations and drives, which leaves Korea with pretty much no choice but to double down on that physical, aggressive style they've been using. To put it in perspective, Mexico only committed 16 fouls against Germany, and Sweden managed just 13. I wouldn't be surprised at all if those gritty Koreans pick up a few more fouls today.
One! double To wrap things up (total 2.08 on bet365):
I’m looking at Heung-min Son to go under 25.5 passes, currently sitting at 1.66 on bet365. Honestly, I think there's some real value here if you look at how the tactical setup is shifting lately. Against Sweden, he had 22 passes when he wasn't even playing upfront, then he turned in an absolutely monster performance against Mexico with 34 passes and 8 shots on goal. Honestly, I think it’ll be incredibly tough to replicate that kind of magic. Germany is going to dominate possession and dictate the tempo here, while Korea will likely just sit back and defend, so I highly doubt their most talented striker is going to pull this off.
I'm looking at Nemanja Matić to go under 70.5 passes, sitting at 1.25 on bet365. Bookie made a massive mistake here. The odds have already dropped, but honestly, it doesn't matter—we’re still taking this bet regardless. They only managed 34 and 48 additions against Costa Rica and Switzerland, and now they're stepping up against a powerhouse like Brazil. Brazil is going to absolutely dictate the tempo and control possession from start to finish; there is almost no way they push past the 35-40 mark in this one.
Here are a few of my picks, just so everyone can make a little extra cash☕
Ever Banega over 1.5 shots on target 2.55 Unibet Banega is an old-school veteran for this Argentina squad, but the manager hasn't been giving him much run lately. After all the media backlash regarding the recent poor performances, there’s heavy speculation that Messi and Mascherano will be calling the shots on today's lineup, and honestly, Banega really deserves to start. Against Iceland, he came on in the 54th minute and managed two shots; against the Americans, he didn't even get on the pitch. If you look at his numbers from the qualifiers: one shot against Peru (playing 60 mins), two against Venezuela, three against Bolivia—I can't find the older stats, unfortunately. Argentina absolutely has to go all out for a win today to avoid any embarrassment and a group stage exit, so I think there's plenty of room for Banega to get at least two shots up. All in all, this is massive value; realistically, this should be sitting around 1.70-1.80.
shots on target duel: Lionel Messi vs Sergio Aguero 1 1.70 Unibet Like I mentioned last night, Higuaín is starting, which means Aguero will probably only get about 20 minutes toward the end of the match. In both games so far, he's only had one shot on target despite playing 90 and 54 minutes respectively. Messi is going to have to carry the load himself here; I mean, back in the qualifiers, he went out and bagged a hat trick against Ecuador, and I'm expecting something similar today. Against Iceland, he had 11 shots, three of which were on target—the Americans absolutely dismantled them, but there is no way Nigeria can pull off anything close to that. I really don't think this is one to pass up.
Dawid Leckie over 1.5 2.00 Unibet (also available on Bet365) He had three shots against France and five against Denmark. Australia desperately needs to hunt for a win today, and they haven't shown that kind of urgency in either of those previous matches. This is a missed margin.
Gerald Carter53 said:PSK has Uruguay at 53.5%. The issue is that Russia stays under 50% in both rounds. They just tend to hand over more possession to their opponents.
Yeah, I actually did a bit of deeper digging into the Russians later on and realized they don't care about possession one bit, so I gave up on that idea. But I did grab Spain under 69.5 against Morocco—total mistake by Unibet, because now the margin has already shrunk by about 3 or 4 points.
Post 1894529. Listen up: this is NOT the place to be dissecting match results, betting odds, or any of that nonsense; there is an actual chat thread specifically for that stuff.
Argentina over 54.5% possession 1.75 PSK, Unibet 55% at 1.72 over
The US lineup looks a bit more defensive here—Kramarić is sitting on the bench while Badelj gets the nod, so it seems like the coaching staff decided to just hand control over to Argentina and park the bus. And let’s be honest, Argentina lives for possession: Argentina -Tournament: Iceland 77% -Friendlies: Haiti 74%, Spain 50%, Italy 62%, Nigeria 64%, Russia 67%, Brazil 54% -Qualifiers: Ecuador 46%, Peru 66%, Venezuela 75%, Uruguay 80%, Bolivia 53%...
jadewolf16 said:If Uruguay just let everyone down, they shouldn't kid themselves thinking Russia is some kind of favorite now. Uruguay actually plays much better against teams that leave gaps, and Russia is definitely going to play more openly because of the home crowd pressure, unlike how they played in Japan or against Belgium. Don't forget, when the national team plays in Uruguay, it’s practically a holiday; they aren't going to overexert themselves when they know the entire country has stopped everything just to watch them.
@ 1.30 on Uruguay—it's not a massive payout, but it's enough to make me smile, especially if Spain beats Iran by a landslide tonight. If that happens, it's almost a certainty that the group winner will end up facing a much weaker Portugal.
In my opinion, the real value in this match is looking at the over on Russian possession. Of course, it depends on what line they set, but I honestly think they'll sit back, let Russia hold the ball, and then just spring those counter-attacks. They didn't play any differently against that joke of a Saudi Arabia side, after all.
About 4 or 5 days ago, Unibet was offering a possession threshold of 57.5% for Portugal, and after seeing the insane pressure Morocco put on them during that first match, I was absolutely convinced we were looking at an under. Now, they’ve gone and dropped the line to 53.5% across the board, which is frustrating, but honestly, I still think even that could land.
jadewolf16 said:At least they hit the mark on the over 3.5 in those two cases when the odds were peaking at around 3.20 for France and Australia.
This guy was basically out there grabbing at moonbeams in mid-air, and somehow, Elver managed to score—otherwise, nobody would have even smelled a goal.
Honestly, only Real Madrid and Barca in an El Clásico actually stand a chance of hitting that over 3.5; everything else is just total garbage.
Even if you look at Spain and Portugal, it’s basically the same deal as an El Clásico.
For the love of God, stop posting this nonsense. This is your final warning.
jadewolf16 said:I’ve already seen enough, and honestly, that's just more reason for me; someone has to step up and open things up once in a while. It's not like they're some underdog team from a tiny island nation that plays defensively forever.
So, what, you aren't intimidated by those massive odds anymore? 🤣
jadewolf16 said:Switzerland has been this rock-solid squad for a decade now, whereas Mexico has always been such an enigma; honestly, it’s going to be a fifty-fifty toss-up depending on how luck falls on that specific day.
The main thing is that they need to bury Mexico on the pitch before the tournament even really kicks off—I almost pulled off a miracle qualifying run for Sweden myself!
Look, if a team is truly an enigma, you can't just assume Switzerland is cruising through the group stage simply because they've been consistent.🤷
graniteotter6 said:I’ve got it all memorized. As far back as I can remember following the game, we've only ever made it to the World Cup during these specific years. 2014, yeah. 2010, no. 2006, no, but they did score 6 goals.🤦 2002, no. 1998, yes. 1994, no. 1990, no. 1986, yes. 1982, no.
Tradition isn't exactly working in our favor here. This feels more like a gut feeling bet because VAR is going to cause absolute chaos throughout the tournament, especially given how helpless the Russians are being. They'll have to find any way possible to manufacture an advantage.
2014 World Cup – penalty for Brazil 2010 World Cup – nothing
Euro 2016 – penalty for Romania Euro 2012 – nothing
Ali, what you're saying actually makes sense; it’s definitely worth a shot. 😉 Bet365 is offering odds of 7.00 that Russia will score a penalty.🤔