Posts by ruggedgull32

...is it finally time for Orlando to go on a killing spree?
Here’s what was rattling around my brain tonight:

Orlando moneyline -9.5, I say take the juice
Parker over 17.5 points
D-Wills over 19.5 points

The player prop lines at my local sportsbook are sitting about a buck lower than usual, and the Orlando spread is a half-basket shorter too...🤷
Looks like another sleepless night ahead...😂

wiredcanyon39 said:Milwaukee Bucks vs Miami Heat -6.5, Odds 1.85
7/10
Just last week these two were facing off at the Fiserv Forum and the Bucks pulled off a massive upset against Miami. Look, the Heat are one of the toughest road teams in the NBA right now, and you can bet they’re looking to settle the score after that stumble. Wade is back in the lineup and looks solid since his return—minus that weirdly quiet game against the Bulls—and he still finds a way to sink those clutch buckets when it matters. LeBron is just playing on another planet lately, and with Bosh getting more aggressive alongside Battier, Miller, Cole, and Chalmers... I don't know, feels like a bit much for Milwaukee to handle. Especially since Miami beat them in Florida; they're going to be hungry for this one. Plus, if the Bulls slip up during their tough trip to Philly, the East standings could get messy again.

Deron Williams over 21.5, Odds 1.85
6/10
The Nets are hosting Detroit, which is basically a matchup between two of the worst squads in the league right now. Not much to dissect here, and I've got places to be. Williams is clearly the only guy on the Nets actually doing anything; he's realized his teammates aren't helping much, so he's just taking every shot available. You saw it yesterday—even with Morrow hogging the ball, Deron still dropped 34 points. Detroit's defense is a joke. I highly doubt Stuckey and the crew have any chance of stopping him.

...first pick I spotted this morning. I've already got it covered at my local sportsbook with a -19.5+ line...👍

shadowjackal27 said:LeBron James and Chris Bosh are definitely heading out...
Things aren't looking too good for us Bulls fans.

LeBron James could easily drop 35 to 40 points. Bosh probably lands somewhere around 20.
Dwyane Wade started off looking super twitchy, and honestly, his offensive game was just straight-up trash to start with. What even was that?

These two are definitely going over the line. Luis Scola was absolutely cooking last night—I'm talking like 12 points in just the first half. Back in Louisville, the line was sitting at 17.5, and I figured, hey, he'll easily chip in a couple more buckets from the field, right? Easy money... then nothing. Zilch.🤷

...Derrick Rose already picked up two fouls after barely playing five minutes off the bench. Looks like it’s gonna be a long night for Chicago...🤷

James Taylor3 said:Oh sure, now that you actually have the gear to play for keeps, suddenly all the conditions are met for serious betting. And yet, you're backing out... 🙂

Chicago! 🤷

That's a total coin flip. 🤣

I'm leaning towards the over, but honestly, everything hinges on Kobe Bryant. When the Los Angeles Lakers blow a game the day before, he usually gets pissed and refuses to pass the ball to anyone else during the next one. 🤣

...it's not even that they lost the day before, it's more like, say, last night he threw 20 passes at his teammates and they maybe caught three of them. I don't think he's gonna feed anyone tonight...

P.S.
...ever since the NBA season started, I haven't slept a wink. I show up to work and just nod off, then I'm back home analyzing stats and studying games...
Screw the NBA and whoever decided on these time zones... 😂

stormyseal9 said:You can't just ignore how players perform at home versus on the road. Wall isn't the same guy when he's traveling; he takes about 15 more shots at home compared to away games, unless the matchup is just perfect. You have to track that. How much does a team's over/under change based on their star player?🤷If Wade is at 20+, take it without thinking. The Secret Service line is 23+, so I passed because I seriously doubt all three will hit the over.🤷Paul Pierce could go because they don't have Gordon Hayward or Allen, so he'll grab plenty of shots and make them. For example, Kevin Love averages around 12 field goals against the Los Angeles Lakers, which isn't nothing. He could easily take 25 shots and blow past the margin, but honestly, I'm skeptical. There are sites you can follow, but I don't know if I'm allowed to post them here without getting banned. Just look up the main one by the league name.☕Good luck today, everyone.😉

...And that’s exactly how I play it. But look, Wall had to drop 15 last night against a terrible team like the Charlotte Hornets just to hit the line, and those guys were absolutely pathetic—they almost stole the win from him at the buzzer...
As for the Miami Heat vs Chicago Bulls game, I'm taking the over on both Dwyane Wade and Derrick Rose, so let's see what happens. I'm on Wade because the line is low and Tim Hardaway's minor injury means he hasn't been able to protect him as well lately. As for Rose, I'm taking the over because I don't see anyone else stepping up tonight if it isn't him (Luol Deng is out too)... anyway, good luck.

P.S.
Feel free to DM me those sites... thanks!

...Luis Scola, Wall Street...🙂
Maybe we should just listen to James Taylor3 and stop betting on player over/unders...
But man, I can't help myself when I see Dwyane Wade in Louisville with a line at -20.5+...
How am I supposed to pass up that over?🤷

James Taylor3 said:Honestly, you have no clue. He’s in great shape, driving hard to the hoop, forcing fouls and getting those free throws. He probably could’ve dropped way more on a desperate Charlotte team, but I haven't been tracking anyone's stats this year, so don't take my word for it. 😁

Yeah, Paul Pierce really stepped it up once he took over playmaking duties from Rondati. Plus, his shooting is night and day compared to how it looked at the start of the season.

...I caught a few Washington games and saw how he plays—using that speed to attack the rim (he did pretty well doing that against Boston), but then I see him tonight and he hasn't even attempted a single three-pointer...
I was reading your post from a few days back about the roster and I'm with you on that...

James Taylor3 said:👍

Just did a quick scan of the scores, looks like all the favorites pulled through. Caught Philly and Charlotte last night—man, the Bobcats are a total disaster right now. Also caught a bit of Boston vs Indiana. Pierce was on another level in the second half. 🙏

I honestly thought that San Antonio game would be higher scoring, but hey, luck was on my side since I didn't put anything on it. 😁

...so, looking at Charlotte vs Washington tonight, Wall is sitting right around that 15.5 line. He dropped 17 in just 33 minutes last night, so I feel like he could easily hit that again against this squad... that's the first thing that jumped out at me...
James Taylor3, what do you think?

P.S.
Stoudemire looks like he's in a massive slump, and his team isn't doing much better... they're up against Houston tonight, who actually made me some decent money against the Bucks... let's see how it goes...🙂

Hey, I've been lurking and reading all your takes for ages, but I rarely actually post anything...
Decided to finally chime in today because, honestly, I think most of you are right about Orlando coming out on top—even with the spread (too bad my local sportsbook doesn't offer that option here in the States)...
I’m definitely riding with Howard over 21.5. I mean, if that klutz McGee dropped 13 on them last night and racked up three blocks, how is O'Neal supposed to shut Howard down tonight? No way.
If Allen and Rondo are sitting this one out, it’s a no-brainer to take Pierce over his 17.5 line...
...good luck tonight...🙂

Brandon Clark5 said:Man, I can't find any lines for Toronto-New Jersey anywhere else... :/ My gut tells me Toronto is going to absolutely steamroll them tonight. They're basically a walking injury report right now. Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if Bargnani hits his over tonight!

Hey,

My local sportsbook is offering:
Toronto-New Jersey (+7.5) spread
and the total at -185.5+. Which one looks better to you guys? Personally, I'm leaning toward the spread...

Hey everyone. I’m finally stepping out of the shadows and actually posting here for once. I’ve been lurking on this forum forever and honestly, your insights have saved me more than a few times, so I figured it was about time I joined the conversation and shared some of my own takes...
One thing on my mind is tonight's matchup between Indiana and Boston. My local sportsbook has the spread at -5.5 for Indiana against the Boston Celtics, and personally, I think the Celtics cover that easily enough...
Also, looking at the same book, they’ve got Danny Granger set right at the line at 18.5+. I’m leaning toward him staying under that number tonight. Between his rough season so far, Boston’s lockdown defense at home, and the fact that he’s only averaging 19.1 points against them anyway, it feels like a safe bet that he stays below that mark. What do you guys think?
Thanks in advance and good luck to everyone...