Posts by ruggedgull32

Arthur Hill2 said:I went with Deron in my head-to-head against Pierca. Seems like Deron is "destined" to go over, and since LBJ is guarding him, he'll probably keep him stuck under 20.

So Bones, what’s your take on LBJ under 27.5 if things flip? Wade looks like a lock to play, and if they end up finishing this game with such a low score, there's no way LBJ hits the over either. He's only hit the over 4 times in his last 16 games—that's 25%. Not exactly looking like a sure thing...🤷>

Drew Palmer66 said:NJN - Wallace is out. Green is a game-time decision.

DAL - Kidd is playing.

As for Rose, I don't see him hitting the floor tonight...

Green is out too... tooth issues.
Deron’s gonna have to go absolutely nuclear tonight...😁

Dropping some food for thought today, so let me know what you guys think:
A. Jamison (Cleveland) (18.5) over (Irving’s banged up, which honestly just helps his shooting numbers)
J. Wall (Washington) (15.5) over (Looks like Howard is sitting out again too, so there shouldn't be any real threat of getting ramped at the rim)
C. Anthony (New York) (24.5) over (He's hot right now and there's a massive rivalry brewing, plus they're missing Lin and Amare)
D. Rose (Chicago) (22.5) over (Pure revenge for the last matchup. That line is way too low—caught me off guard when I saw it. Definitely worth a single bet)

Current lines from DraftKings...

Christian Ruiz said:Howard’s sitting this one out tonight

...so now that Howard is out, we just pivot. I'm taking the over on Monroe. Got him at 14.5, which feels solid. Did the exact same thing last week, took the 22 over without the "Superman" on the other side...
...also, if Duncan and Parker aren't hitting the floor for San Antonio, who else at DraftKings wants Ginobili over 14.5? Just follow the logic here...🤷

Edit:
...looks like Manu might be resting too. If he sits, the odds are whatever, but I don't see it. Why would they bench him? He isn't even a starter, just gets about twenty minutes a night anyway...

...give me some LOVE here...😁
The guy’s logging 40+ minutes, yet his team has been trailing by 20+ since the second quarter...
Players like this? That's where you put your money...

...man, seriously, you need more luck if you're gonna be hitting the over on road games like that...

Lawson over 14.5

"Honestly, I thrive on the road," Lawson told the team's official website. "There's something about hearing the crowd boo you that gets me going. I'm totally ready for it, especially when we head out to Utah and Chicago this Monday and hit those cities with the loud, rowdy fans. I live for that energy."

Road projection 16.5...

Lawrence Castillo76 said:I don't see Marcus Kaman hitting 17 points today, honestly.

...yeah, true...

...Gordon put on a clinic tonight, dropped 45 on just 9 shots...👏

Edit:
Now suddenly Neno is on the board too? Margin is sitting at 12.5... is betting the over even worth the hassle here?
There’s a massive gap in the margins on Kaman, swinging from 14.5 all the way up to 17.5 based on what I'm seeing at DraftKings...
Just realized he used to play for the Clippers...

Anyone think we can hit the over on Millsap's points tonight (5/15)?
If Big Ali sits out, it’s looking pretty likely, though word is he might actually suit up tonight...🤷

Andrew Hall46 said:

...it was just a matter of when it would finally happen...

Alexander Lewis91 said:Ilyasova absolutely wrecked me last night, hitting two decent payouts. I had him over 13.5
I don't know what's up with the sportsbooks here in the States, but the margins are all over the place.
For example, when I was watching the Play games last night, the lines over here were like 5 points lower than they are back home.
I even threw a parlay on Ilyasova—over 13.5 and under 20.5—but ended up just getting my money back at the end.

The only reason I wasn't following the Play action was because of that low line on Maggette. Over there it’s 22, but here it's sitting at 18...
I followed everything else, but Ilyasova just crawled into my head and ended up killing my whole night...🙂

wiredcanyon39 said:Man, I wish we had betting sites like this over here.

The lines here are usually 19, 20, or 21, but this one's sitting at 17.
They rarely move the line around either. If they see everyone hammering a specific spread, they just shave a bit off the odds, but it’s never a massive shift...

Rough call last night with the Iliad play, and then this matchup popped up on my radar this morning:

(17.5)Cleveland - Jamison A.

I’ve got this one on my local tracker, but honestly, the juice feels way too high for an over bet.
The guy is absolutely cooking right now, and these lines missed his actual pace by at least 3 or 4 buckets...🤷

Alexander Lewis91 said:watching the Bucks lately, I have zero clue how Ilyas was even getting easy buckets. Nobody’s even been feeding him the rock yet. 🙂

...it's a disaster...
🙂

Lawrence Castillo76 said:Deron Williams and Luol Deng are out, Joakim Noah is playing, and Al Jefferson will probably miss the game against the Pistons due to family stuff, though nothing's official yet.

...so Carlos Boozer is in, the Bucks have two layers of insurance... it’s all connected, I guess. Whatever happens, happens...🤷

Forget about Blake Griffin, honestly, Kevin Garnett was struggling to even breathe against Andrew Bynum last night. With Shaquille O'Neal sidelined, I have no clue who's actually going to step up and stop him tonight...🤷
It's a back-to-back situation for both teams, but how much gas can the "old folks home" squad really have left in the tank tonight?

graniteotter6 said:stormycyclist5, Rose is definitely hitting that 17.5 line. 😂

The betting lines we have in this country are absolutely brain-dead. Seriously, it’s enough to make you lose your mind.

😂
Nah, it's like 23.5 in some spots and 24.5 in others. Confusing, right?
For players of his caliber, scoring half the bucket isn't even an issue. If he gets "inside" tonight, he’ll roll right through it without breaking a sweat.
I’m just picking at players like Boozer, Kaman, and Ilyasova... trying to find that absolute lowest floor that actually feels realistic.
When I'm placing bets, I usually look past my own numbers and check out the lines at the local American sportsbooks too. You know, just to see how much they've drifted from what actually feels realistic. It's worth the extra step, right?
We’ve got a few spots around town hitting that Hattrick on the machines, so I might just jump in there once in a while if some lines look absolutely ridiculous...🤷

Arthur Hill2 said:The official sportsbook site I'm looking at says 16.5.

Maybe you placed the bet earlier

...sorry, didn't mention it wasn't the main sportsbook... it's that same one they use in Canada where Ilyasov is 13.5...🙄

Arthur Hill2 said:Over 16.5 at the sportsbook. Let's go. Time to go wild and hunt down every single foul they give us.

Wait, you're telling me I actually hit -15.5+...?!🤷