Denver’s interior defense is honestly a bit of a mess right now. Chris Bosh has looked absolutely stellar coming out of the season opener; sure, he was a little quiet last night, but his recent games have been consistently hitting the over. I can't quite figure out what's going on with Dwyane Wade lately. If he ends up sitting out tonight due to that injury, the entire load falls on LeBron James and Chris Bosh. I expect them both to go into overdrive just to avoid picking up a second straight loss. That said, if Wade actually suits up, I really think Chris Bosh could easily clear 20 points, especially since Denver's defense at the four and five spots is looking pretty porous.
Given everything already mentioned regarding DeRozan, Atlanta, and Lawson... I’d probably toss Scola into the mix too. I'm expecting a high-scoring affair, and honestly, Houston’s interior defense has been pretty shaky lately. I could see Scola hitting the over on his points, and maybe Jefferson over as well. I'm anticipating an entertaining game where he might even see 35+ minutes of action; whenever he's logged that much time this season, he's consistently hit his over .
Utah's defense isn't exactly elite when it comes to guarding guards, and Jaqua is seeing plenty of volume right now. I'm expecting an entertaining matchup with significant minutes for him. Honestly, hitting 16 points shouldn't be much of a stretch, I guess.
Monta Ellis over 18.5
Brandon Jennings is a wild card; you never really know what to expect with him. 🙂 He’s getting a ton of shot attempts, and with Ben Wallace out, I anticipate they pull off the win tonight. Personally, I think he could easily clear 20 points.
Los Angeles Lakers 1
They are the significantly better squad here. Golden State is missing Andrew Bogut, so it feels unlikely they'll pull off an upset at the Staples Center.
New York Knicks 1
Without Dirk Nowitzki, they don't really have an answer for a New York City team that looks this good this season.
wiredcanyon39 said:LA Lakers - Golden State Warriors 1 @1.40 It’s about damn time the Lakers actually pulled off a win. Honestly, the visitors look pretty desperate, especially when they're playing on the road. With Russell out injured, they're even more shorthanded tonight, so I guess Kobe and the rest of the crew at the Staples Center really need to secure a victory just to keep some peace in the house.
I'm with you there! The Lakers absolutely have to win this one. Personally, I'm feeling good about the -6.5 handicap, and maybe even taking the over on 101.5.🙂
Lawrence Castillo76 said:Since Boston took first in their division and Atlanta grabbed second in theirs, the division winners are seeded 1 through 4, followed by the rest. Because Atlanta holds the better record, they get the home-court advantage. Cheers!
Aha... so that's it. I figured it was something along those lines. Which means there's zero benefit for Boston in landing that 4th seed; they're stuck playing on the road in the first round regardless. Thanks for clearing that up. Take care!
Seriously, can someone please explain to me why Atlanta is sitting at 5th and Boston is at 4th in the East when Atlanta actually has the better record? According to NBA.com, Atlanta is ranked 5th, yet they’re playing the first game at home... is this some kind of glitch??
Rondo at 14.5 points? Please. If a guy gets 20 shots at him, he’ll cruise right past that line. I guess it depends on whether KG is suited up or if Rose is actually going to suit up for Chicago, but honestly, even with those variables, 15 points doesn't seem like much of a stretch for Rondo.
Sean Sullivan87 said:Ron Artest giving fashion advice to Jeremy Lin 🙄
"Look, I don't wear them, but he really should. He’s just the kind of guy who needs to rock leather pants and some killer sneakers. You're Jeremy Lin, for crying out loud! You get what I'm saying? You feel me? Put down those legal textbooks, stop reading the New York Times, and start picking up the Daily News. I love that paper—it's always so colorful. What else... Oh, right. Wear your hat backward. Show up to practice in oversized baggy shorts and tell them, 'I'm not feeling it today,' you know? Practice? Just throw on an Iverson jersey. Roll up to training with a cigar in your mouth and say, 'I am Jeremy Lin!' A man's gotta change his image. Anyway, we're all hyped for the game. Even Kobe Bryant is pumped. He wants that 50! He wants to welcome Jeremy to the next level of basketball!"
The night ended like this: Jeremi 38 vs Bryant 34
Honestly, I can't stand this Artest guy. The arrogance is just off the charts...
Arthur Hill2 said:Play, don't you think that line for the Toronto Raptors vs LA Lakers (172.5) is set a little too low?
Especially when you take a look at their head-to-head history over the last 5 matchups. 🤷
The last 15 messy matchups have all gone over. Both teams had some rest last night, so they should be feeling fresh... by all accounts, this looks like an over to me. I'm eyeing about 95 for the Los Angeles Lakers, while the Toronto Raptors should probably clear 80. Honestly, I think the margin is off by at least 5 baskets.
I am having the most ridiculous time trying to place a bet on Rose over at DraftKings. I can get every other player through, but for some reason, he's being difficult. He shows up in the menu just fine, but every time I try to lock it in, I get this annoying pop-up saying his odds dropped to 1.70. So, I accept the change, try to submit the bet again, and... nothing. It just won't go through. It has been going on for four hours now, and absolutely nothing has changed. Is anyone else dealing with this glitch? If anyone actually manages to successfully place a bet on Rose from here on out, please let me know. Thanks!
I'm running into a bit of a headache trying to place my bets on DraftKings. Every single time I hit that "place bet" button, I get hit with this same annoying error message saying the ticket couldn't be processed due to an exchange rate fluctuation. I’m not even touching the live betting; I’m just trying to put some money down on the NBA, obviously... Is anyone else dealing with this nonsense lately? I really don't feel like trekking out to a physical betting shop, either—it's negative ten degrees out there, and honestly, who wants to deal with that right now? 🙂
For tonight, I’m looking at Derrick Rose and Chris Paul going over, though I might also consider LaMarcus Aldridge or maybe even Magic Johnson.
Here is an interesting stat: the Atlanta Hawks haven't lost a regular-season home game against the Memphis Grizzlies since 2005. When you factor in that Atlanta is sitting at 8-1 at home, while Memphis is struggling at 4-7 on the road this season, those 1.60 odds look pretty juicy to me. To be fair, Memphis grabbed all four of their road wins against bottom-tier teams like the New Orleans Pelicans, Detroit Pistons, and Golden State Warriors. Atlanta has only dropped one home game this year, and even then, it was against the Miami Heat in a triple-overtime thriller where they actually held the lead until the very last second—right before Chris Bosh drained a nine-meter buzzer-beater. 🙂
If I may add a little more context regarding this matchup... Atlanta cruised through their last two games and rested their starters during the fourth quarter, whereas Memphis had two absolute grinders where the key players had to play heavy minutes until the whistle. Even though both teams had yesterday off, I suspect Atlanta will come out feeling much fresher.
Another angle worth testing for this game is taking the under on Lou Williams at 20.5, given how stout the Atlanta defense is at that position.
So, my parlay might look something like this:
Derrick Rose over 25.5 Chris Paul over 19.5 Atlanta 1X
Total odds: 4.96
And if I'm feeling particularly reckless: those three picks plus Magic Johnson over, Lou Williams under, LaMarcus Aldridge over, and LA Clippers 1X for total odds of 48.
P.S. If anyone happens to have any intel suggesting Atlanta is missing anyone from their rotation, please let me know. 🙂
Is there anyone running a stream for the Spurs vs. Rockets game? Also, for the love of God, can someone tell me where you guys actually watch these things? I’ve been hunting everywhere and I just can't find a decent broadcast to save my life... thanks
I’ve also been chewing on Jennings' over 20.5 against Miami. He's got a game coming up, and looking back at his last one, he managed to clear the margin (23 pts) despite a pretty abysmal shooting percentage of 25% (5-20 FG), mostly thanks to getting to the charity stripe (12-13 FT).
Now, Jennings is playing at home. He tends to feed off the crowd there, averaging a solid 21.5 PPG, and out of his eight games this season, he's only fallen under that line twice in front of his own fans. 🤷☕
It’s wild how much our heads are in the same place. 🙂 I almost always take the over on Jennings when he’s rocking the home jersey, especially today against Miami. That said, I still have D-Will and Parker ranked slightly higher than him for today, even if I’ll definitely throw Brandon onto a parlay. 🙂 Miami is a tough squad, and they have one of the worst defenses against playmakers, so he should easily grab 15-20 shots—assuming he doesn't just absolutely demolish the Heat... though I guess that's unlikely.
I have to say, this Portland situation caught my eye. 🙂I haven't even come close to getting burned at 1.10 odds, especially since I've been hitting much better lines lately... I'm done with this kind of nonsense!!
Nicholas Chase34 said:Hmm... if you look at how James and Wade function as offensive threats, Chris Bosh naturally ends up seeing fewer touches. I mean, once one of them starts making moves, his usage rate just drops off—you could see that play out clearly during the matchup against the Pelicans.
When it comes to Griffin, he’s clearly a crowd favorite—the kind of player who feeds off the home energy. If you're looking for his most explosive performances, you really have to catch him playing at the home arena; last season, he was averaging a solid 24.6 points there, compared to just 20.4 on the road. As for Blake, he already faced off against the Jazz earlier this season, putting up a relatively quiet 10 points on 5-of-12 shooting in about 27 minutes during that Utah blowout win. I guess we'll see if he finds more rhythm tonight.
I’m feeling a little playful today. I guess you could say I'm in a bit of a mischievous mood. Maybe. I’d say D. Williams to go over 21.5. Maybe? I mean, looking at the matchup, it seems like a reasonable play, though I guess anything is possible in this league. te I’d say Parker goes over 18.5. Maybe. I guess we'll see.So, why Parker? Honestly, I think the answer is pretty obvious, though I suppose some might disagree. Here’s the deal. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I2jWAs3FKAg 🤷 ☕
I am in complete and total agreement with those two idiots! So, here are my first two picks for the day. I’ve been watching Deron lately, and honestly, he’s been absolutely tearing it up—averaging about 27 points over his last five games. There's also this interesting little trend I noticed: whenever his team actually pulls off a win, he tends to drop around 26. Given that I’m expecting a victory for the Nets today, I think he's in the right headspace. It seems like he's realized there isn't much else to do out there, so he's started hunting for more shots—roughly 20 per game now. I guess that should be more than enough to clear this margin. Tony is going up against Houston, who—aside from Miami—is basically running a sieve for a defense right now. We’re talking about an average of 22 points per game from that position during their prime years, and Tony absolutely tore them apart last time they met. He’s been struggling through these last two games, though; honestly, he looked a bit lost out there. I guess he just needs to find his rhythm today, because if he doesn't, we're in trouble.
Nicholas Chase34 said:Based on the stats I've been tracking, I think your numbers are actually off. The Golden State Warriors aren't really struggling that much at the power forward spot this year, so if you're sure there's an issue, maybe drop a link so I can double-check your math.🤷
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Fair point! My mistake—I was looking at Small Forward instead of Power Forward. But even so, my point stands: Washington, D.C. is giving up a ton of points from that position.🙂 They're averaging 21 per game so I still think Goozer is a solid bet for the over.
Arthur Hill2 said:Since they're missing Hamilton, Denga, and CJ Watson, Boozer is probably going to see a ton of touches today.
Goozer might actually pull it off. I mean, Washington, D.C. gives up a massive amount of points from that spot—averaging about 22 per game—and even the Golden State Warriors aren't much better in that department. Honestly, 15 shouldn't be an issue...
