Posts by Joshua Gonzalez33

Scott Jackson said:I'd bet a kidney that Westbrook averages less than 23.5... 🙂

Put those two together ☕

Derby Games 2317 Kevin Durant (OKC) (-27,5+) 07.02. 23:55 over @1,85
Kevin Durant averages 27 points, but he bumps that up to 29 on the road—mostly because they just don't run teams off the court as much away from home. I’m expecting a high-scoring affair here; the line is set at 205, and I really think both teams will blow past that. The main scorers for Oklahoma City are Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, and you can probably count James Harden in there too. I wouldn't bet on Westbrook going huge, though, since the Golden State Warriors have the 2nd best perimeter defense in the league, giving up only 16.6 points per game. Plus, their home defense against big men is elite, allowing a measly 13.5 points. So, if Russell Westbrook struggles tonight, it’s all on Kevin Durant to pick up the slack. That alone makes this a solid play for me, but there's more: Golden State has the worst small forward defense in the league, giving up 21.8 points per game, and they surrender a whopping 23.4 at home. I think Kevin Durant is going to absolutely tear them apart tonight.

Stake: Kidney ☕

BET-LIVE
Odds: 11.71

(22.5) Houston Rockets - Martin: OVER @1.85
I’d say it’s worth taking Martin tonight. He’s playing great, he just missed the over yesterday simply because he spent half the game riding the bench. They've got a tough road trip matchup ahead, though—the Rockets are a beast at home. Minnesota has one of the worst defenses in the league against the Shooting Guard position, so I think Martin will exploit that, especially since Houston's second scoring option is Luis Scola, who'll be guarded by Kevin Love and probably won't find much room to work.

(18.5) Cleveland - Irving: Over @1.85
Back on young Kyrie Irving again. He actually cleared the over yesterday despite shooting absolute garbage! His season average is still north of .500, though. He’s hit the over in five straight games now, and tonight he’s facing a Dallas Mavericks squad that’s got one of the worst defenses against point guards in the league—giving up about 20.5 points per game. Plus, I don't see him repeating that terrible performance from last night, especially since he's playing at home.

Kevin Love over 24.5 points at 1.85. I like it.
Kevin Love and his Minnesota Timberwolves take on the Houston Rockets tonight, and both teams are playing hot right now. I’m expecting a dogfight until the final buzzer and probably around 200 total points. Love had a rough night yesterday, and I don't think he'll let that happen twice in a row—plus, he’s averaging about 26 points at home, so this should hit. Another reason to take this is that he'll be guarded by Luis Scola, and let's just say defense isn't exactly his strongest suit.

(22.5) LA Clippers - Blake Griffin Over @1.85
Griffin can easily clear this line. The only thing that might stop him tonight is if the Clippers jump out to a massive lead too early, but I have a feeling Washington will actually make them work for it. Besides, the Clippers have been grinding through some tough matchups and only had one day of rest, so they probably aren't at 100% either. Washington has the 7th worst defense at power forward, and Griffin is sitting at 3rd in the league for scoring at that position. He dropped 33 and 26 in his last two against them, so everything points to the over.

stormyseal9 said:Hey, back at you. Missing just one play still pays out huge, and if you were watching tonight, Monta Ellis and Jamison missed by a single bucket🤷. I managed to hit two days in a row recently, and I’m not forcing anyone to follow my lead if they think they know better🤷. I appreciate the concern for my bankroll, but seriously, don't worry about it—I'm not some gambler looking to blow my life savings on a whim😍. Is that clear enough for you?☕ There's always someone trying to play smart-ass🤷

Why the hell are you being so defensive?

The guy was asking a legitimate question, maybe checking what your win rate looks like since the last time you hit a heater.

Just give him a straight answer.

"Yeah, I hit a few ten days ago, or fifteen, whatever—I don't have time to sit here and explain myself like this."

Look, I don't care how much you're winning or when you're hitting, but he has a point. Every now and then, you should drop some actual analysis to show you actually understand the game. Otherwise, you just look like those guys who walk into a sportsbook, glance at the board, and say, "Oh, Dwight Howard is set at only 19.5? Let's hammer that," even though Andrew Bynum is right there guarding him. I've seen way too many people act like that, and nobody respects them. 😉

Lawrence Castillo76 said:I put together a few parlays with these matchups: Kyrie Irving under 19.5—that’s my single from this morning in Germany—plus Detroit +4.5, Boston vs NY over 182.5, Dallas vs Indiana over 188.5, and 4.5 on Washington.

First off, it's Kyrie Irving, not irWing. Second, I think taking the over 17.5 is a much better play (if that's the line for the derby) since he's in great shape, plus the Orlando Magic defense is struggling big time against point guards. And who else in Cleveland is actually expected to show up tonight? Varejão or Jamison?? I seriously doubt anyone can score much against an Orlando frontcourt that plays defense that well.🤷

Arthur Hill2 said:http://www.hoopsstats.com/

@Ronald James41/">@@Ronald James41 Now that Wade is back, Bosh becomes a massive gamble, and the whole Miami squad is basically just a guessing game of which one of those three hits the over.

thanks 👍

Can someone drop a link to that site showing the projected points per position and all that?☕

Anthony James69 said:Watching the Bulls yesterday, I noticed Rose over has a ton of usage when Denga isn't out there... almost every possession is him either driving to score or kicking it out for an assist. He's at 24.5 today, but that's always tricky since it depends on how the game flows... if they're putting up 20+ in the third quarter, the coach will probably sit him. I'm leaning toward School over 17.5, just a gut feeling...
And maybe try Orlando over 85.5... feels like a solid pick to me. Orlando is struggling right now, but I’ll take the over on 85.5 any day, even if it was a local high school girls' team playing Philly for 48 minutes...
Miami might struggle against the Hornets, which could give LeBron James some extra rest on the bench... I expect Wade to step up today, though 23.5 feels steep given his shooting last night. Hopefully he finds his rhythm so LeBron James isn't left stranded without Bosh... maybe take LeBron James under 27.5...
Any other ideas for the parlay?
Steve Nash over 14.5
San Antonio over 91.5
Dallas over 92.5

Just waiting for SS to add assists to the betting options, should happen soon. .. that's where the real value will be...

Philadelphia and Chicago have the toughest defense in the league. Especially when they're at home.

Orlando's recent scores: 85-67-83-103-56
Philadelphia's points allowed: 74-72-97(OT)-83-113(Miami away)...

I'm skipping this game, but calling that an "excellent pick" is a stretch...

p.s. Those types of bets won't show up until the playoffs...

Betting Shop derby

Amar'e Stoudemire over 18.5 @1.85
Jennings over 19.5 @1.85
Andrew Bynum over 14.5 @1.85
Luis Scola over 15.5 @1.85
Gay over 19.5 @1.85
LA Lakers on a great deal @1.60
Memphis @1.65
Washington @1.90

6/8

Switching from Premier to Derby because their player lines are always spot on..☕

Alright, let’s take a chill little swing on some NBA props tonight.

C. Boozer over 16.5@1.75BetMGM
Deng and Rose are likely out, and Boozer’s been absolutely cooking lately—dropping 23, 19, and 31 in his last three, so he clears this easily. Plus, they’re facing a desperate Nets squad that can’t protect the paint to save their lives, so Boozer should feast in front of the home crowd.😉

neonangler10 said:<3 Joshua Gonzalez33
<3 Nicholas Chase34

haha glad I could help 🙂

Joshua Gonzalez33 said:Coach from the sportsbook.

Anthony Carmine and Kevin Love. @1,60 1 1383 21.01. 01:30

This is a massive matchup you need to bet on before the odds drop or they pull it from the board entirely. Anthony Davis is the engine for the New York Knicks; he can still drop a bucket even on an off night, which we saw against the Orlando Magic when his jumper was broken but he lived at the free-throw line. I haven't followed the Milwaukee Bucks that closely this season, but it looks like Stephen Jackson has been struggling lately—his shooting is terrible, and last game the bench actually played more than him. I think Anthony Davis is going to have to step on it, because you could see against the Phoenix Suns that the Knicks just don't function without him. I'm eyeing about 30 points.
Then you've got Kevin Love, arguably one of the best power forwards in the league right now. He’s averaging 25 points and holds his own on defense, too. But he's going up against Blake Griffin, who is easily one of the top four at that position. He's a solid defender, so scoring won't be easy for Love, though I doubt it'll be a walk in the park for Griffin either. There's also the foul trouble factor—if Love picks up two or three quick fouls, he might get sidelined early. Honestly, I think he's got a much tougher night ahead of him than Anthony Davis does, but it'll be worth watching.

Dwight Howard (-21.5) - Magic vs Lakers @1,85 less than 1958 01/21 02:00

Here’s another matchup I think makes perfect sense to bet on. Dwight Howard has gone under in over 50% of his games this season, so there's definitely value in betting that. Looking at the Lakers, with Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum in the mix, I honestly don't see how much leverage Howard can even demand. Both of them are elite defenders; sure, Bynum will cover for him, but even if Pau ends up guarding him during rotations, it shouldn't be an issue. A few other reasons to take this side: one, Dwight once ran into a solid defensive center like DeAndre Chandler and only managed 8 points. Plus, he was getting hacked late in a game recently—picked up 6 fouls and a technical to boot. Another thing is that against the Knicks vs Magic, they really leaned into the three-point shot. I think they might force the issue from deep again tonight since they know it'll be tough to just grind out a win through Howard. When they tried to force it through him against the San Antonio Spurs, it backfired and they lost. They only hit 20 threes, and most were bad shots, so you can't exactly say they're hot from deep. Personally, I see huge value here, but do what you gotta do. 😉

Monta Ellis (-18.5) NY vs Milwaukee @1,85 [Post Date: January 21, 1949, 01:30 AM]

I knew I was betting this one the second I saw the Knicks vs Magic matchup a few days ago. New York is struggling with their rotation right now—Anthony Davis hasn't fully recovered yet, though they’re hinting he might return sooner than originally expected. Either way, their defense is shaky. Monta Ellis is averaging 18.7 points, which puts him just over the line, and he dropped 30 against the Denver Nuggets last game. Another reason to take this is that Milwaukee won't be able to lean on Andres Bogut too heavily; DeAndre Chandler is one of the best defenders in the NBA, and after seeing how well he shut down Dwight Howard, I don't think Bogut is going to have much fun out there. 🤷

👍Good luck tonight, everyone!

Joshua Gonzalez33 said:Blake Griffin (dk)-LaMarcus Aldridge @1,85 2 1382 21.01. 01:00

Feeling a bit chatty today. Like I mentioned earlier, Griffin should be playing it cool tonight since he'll be sharing the floor with Kevin Love—easily the best PF this franchise has seen. On the flip side, you've got LaMarcus Aldridge heading out to face a weak Toronto squad that's even thinner in the paint now that they're missing Jonas Valančiūnas due to injury. Aldridge should have an easier night and get plenty of touches, while Griffin will be well-supported. Griffin averages 21.2 points and Aldridge sits at 22.5... For me, there's no question who the play is here.

Monta Ellis M.(-23,5+)-GS-IND @1,85 more 1966 21.01. 04:30

Ellis dropped 30 last game, and since Indiana isn't exactly a powerhouse at the guard positions, I see a solid chance for Golden State if Ellis gets hot. Plus, his 23.2 PPG average means the line isn't set too high. So yeah, those are my five player picks for today.

👍 ☕

Lawrence Castillo76 said:A player was suspended by their coach for missing a team meeting and will not play on Friday.

I'm thinking Jennings over 18.5 points is a solid bet. If he isn't scoring, who else is going to carry the load against guys like Douglas and Shumpert?

Already said it—with Andrew Bogut being guarded by Dwight Howard and Jackson out... 🤷

Blake Griffin (dk)-LaMarcus Aldridge @1,85 2 1382 21.01. 01:00

Feeling a bit chatty today. Like I mentioned earlier, Blake Griffin is playing alongside Kevin Love tonight—the best PF this franchise has ever seen—so he shouldn't have to carry too much weight. On the flip side, you've got LaMarcus Aldridge heading into a road game against a weak Toronto squad that’s even more vulnerable in the paint now that they're missing their interior presence due to injury. Basically, Aldridge should have an easier night and they'll likely feed him the ball, while Griffin stays well-covered. Besides, Griffin averages 21.2 points and Aldridge hits 22.5... I don't see any doubt on what to take here.

Monta Ellis(-23,5+)-GS-Ind @1,85 više 1966 21.01. 04:30

Monta Ellis dropped 30 points in his last outing. Indiana isn't exactly known for being elite at the guard positions, so I see a solid opportunity for Golden State if Ellis has a good night. Plus, 23.2 points per game isn't even a super high ceiling. Anyway, those are my five player picks for today.

Odds at the local betting shop are looking good

Anthony Davis-Kevin Love @1.60 1 1383 01/21 01:30

This is a super interesting matchup and you should grab it before the odds drop or they pull it from the board. Anthony Davis is the engine for the Knicks; he can still find his way to a high scoring night even when his jumper isn't falling, like he proved against Orlando where he struggled from deep but lived at the free-throw line. They’re going to try to shut him down, though I haven't been watching Milwaukee too closely this season—I assume Stephen Jackson has been playing poorly lately, since the bench actually outplayed him last game. I think Anthony Davis will have to dig deep because we saw against Phoenix that the Knicks just can't function without him. I'm eyeing about 30 points.
On the other side, you've got Kevin Love, arguably one of the best power forwards in the league right now, averaging 25 points. He's solid defensively too, but he'll be facing Blake Griffin, who is also one of the top four guys in that role. It won't be easy for him to score, but it won't be easy for Kevin Love either. There's also the foul trouble factor; Love could easily pick up 2 or 3 fouls early and get sent to the bench. Honestly, I think he'll have a tougher night than Anthony Davis, making this worth a shot!

Dwight Howard(-21.5+)-Orlando-LA Lakers @1.85 under 1958 01/21 02:00

Here's another one that logically should hit. Howard has gone under in more than 50% of his games this season, so there's real value here. With the Lakers having Marc Gasol and Andrew Bynum in the paint, I really don't see Howard being able to demand much volume; both are elite defenders. Bynum will likely handle the heavy lifting, and even if rotations shift, it shouldn't be an issue if Pau ends up guarding Howard. Another reason to take this: Howard once ran into a defensive powerhouse like DeAndre Chandler and only managed 8 points. Plus, he was getting hammered at the line late in that game, racking up 6 fouls and a technical. Also, Orlando was hunting threes against the Knicks, and I think they might double down on that tonight since they know forcing it through Howard isn't working. Against the Spurs, they tried to force it through him and lost; they only made 20 threes and took a lot of bad shots, so they aren't exactly "hot" from deep. I see value here, but do what you gotta do. 😉

Monta Ellis(-18.5+)-NY-Milwaukee @1.85 over 1949 01/21 01:30

As soon as I saw the Knicks were playing the Bucks a few days ago, I knew I was jumping on this. The Knicks have been struggling with their interior play, and while Anthony Davis hasn't fully recovered, word is he might be back sooner than expected. Anyway, their interior defense isn't exactly elite, and Monta Ellis averages 18.7 points, which puts him right over this line. He dropped 30 against Denver in his last outing. Another reason to lean this way is that Milwaukee won't be able to rely heavily on Andrew Bogut, especially since DeAndre Chandler is one of the premier defenders in the NBA. After how well he neutralized Dwight Howard, I doubt Bogut is going to have an easy night. 🤷

👍 Good luck tonight, everyone!

Where can I check the scoring stats?

Defense is looking shaky again, though the offense is doing alright. Štrlek was a bit off the pace early on.🤷

Joshua Gonzalez33 said:Don't want to just clog up the thread.

SuperSport Betting Shop

Griffin B. (dk)-Howard D 1.70 1 1447 16.01. 19:00

Really interesting bet here; I'd say there's a 95% chance it hits. Another way to play this without the head-to-head is taking Griffin over and Howard under, though that feels a bit riskier.

Blake Griffin and his Clippers are hosting a struggling New Jersey team that's currently bottoming out. One big reason for that is they're missing their best player (besides Williams), Brook Lopez. The Clippers are also without Paul tonight—he was aggressive shooting against the Lakers to lead them to a win—which just means more touches for Griffin, who's the guy everyone expects to step up in Paul's absence. New Jersey is desperate for help in the paint, so I don't see any reason why Blake couldn't drop around 25 points. On the flip side, we've got Howard, who's only hit the over twice this year (once for 45 points), usually landing on the under 21.5-22.5. The main reason to lean towards the under this time is Chandler, the New York center who's one of the best defensive bigs in the league and should be able to hold Howard to around 15. Plus, Chandler might even bait the legendary "Superman"—Dwight Howard—into some foul trouble.

👍

Anyone know how I can change my password? 🤷

http://imageshack.us/f/80/pasetikladinasvoje.png/

Guess I'm betting on my guys again. 🤦 🙂🙂 Maybe I'm an idiot, but after I lost money betting against my own team in Philly when they played the Knicks, here I am doing it all over again.

Philadelphia vs Indiana over 184.5 @1.85
Someone already did a deep dive on the Philly over, but honestly, I think Indiana can hold their own. Expecting both sides to push this toward 200 points total.

Toronto vs Minnesota 2 @2.25
The odds here look way too high for the value we're getting. Minnesota is looking solid with KLOVE being one of the best players in the NBA right now, plus Rubio stepping up as a playmaker. Toronto has been pretty inconsistent lately.

New Jersey vs Atlanta (-5.5) 2 @1.85
New Jersey looks lost without Lopez, while Atlanta is playing well despite a couple of "WTF" games recently. They've got shooters ready to go, and I don't think this handicap is too steep. If Deron brings something special, they should cover.

New York vs Charlotte over 203.5 @1.85
New York is finally finding their rhythm. Once Baron is back on the court, they'll be a real problem. Charlotte caught them off guard a few days ago, so I'm expecting some revenge and a high-scoring run & gun game.

C. Anthony over 26.5 @1.85
Carmelo is carrying this squad. He's been hitting the over almost every night—he even dropped 30 when they lost to Charlotte. Plenty of reasons to take this.

Odds from Premier.