NBA Betting: Vol. 2
in Betting Forum ·
Nicholas Chase34 said:4:30 AM, Los Angeles Lakers vs. Phoenix Suns. My pick: Under 186.5 points at 1.91 on Betway.
These two teams already met earlier this season, where the Lakers took it 99-83. The total was set at 192 back then, and since the oddsmakers realized they missed the mark, they've dropped the line by 6 points. Honestly, I still think that’s too high for these two. The Phoenix Suns have been playing in the under for 70% of their games this season, tied with New York City for the most. The Lakers aren't any different, hitting the under in about 60.7% of their matchups. When Phoenix has a day of rest, their over/under split is a rough 4-14. Both squads struggle with possessions per game—Lakers are sitting at 93.1 and Phoenix is at 94.8—and they both rank near the bottom when it comes to creating extra scoring opportunities. You've got older rosters here that just don't play at a frantic pace, which explains all those unders. When you crunch the numbers, a realistic total looks closer to 180.5, maybe something like a 94-86 finish. I'm taking the under 186.5. ☕
LeBron:
Bynum Taking the under 15.5 at 1.85.
Philadelphia 1 @ 1,75
Jennings Under 19.5 at 1.85.
Free agent. J. R. Smith He's gonna sign with them. KnicksBut he won't be back on the court until Sunday at the earliest.
Smith is moving into a hybrid wing role for the Knicks, where he and Shumpert should cover those backup guard and forward spots. You’ll see guys like Bill Walker, Toney Douglas, and Steve Novak rotating in occasionally, but they'll definitely be playing second fiddle to Shumpert and Smith—provided Smith actually keeps his head on straight and avoids the usual nonsense. Looking at his numbers from last season in Denver—about 12.3 points and 4.1 boards in roughly 25 minutes—he clearly has upside, even if his playing time is limited. He’s a solid speculative add, but I wouldn't burn a high pick on him in 8- or 9-cat leagues.
Interesting. ☕
edit: adding picks:
1:00 AM, Brandon Jennings, pick: under 19.5 points @ 1.85, Betway
Brandon Jennings is clearly struggling right now. Over his last five games, he’s only averaging about 14.4 points on a dismal 31% shooting. To make matters worse, he just got stifled by the Orlando Magic a few days ago, putting up only 7 points on 3-for-14 shooting. The Magic are tough to score against, especially when it comes to isolation plays, pick-and-rolls, or coming off screens. Since Jennings gets most of his looks through the pick-and-roll (30.4%), transition buckets (21.2%), spot-ups (17.8%), and iso plays (13.8%), this matchup is looking grim. He’s facing Nelson, who might not be an elite defender overall, but he’s actually really solid at containing pick-and-roll ball handlers. While Nelson isn't the best at defending spot-ups, if he's been shutting down Jennings lately, I don't see why that would change tonight. Getting to the rim is going to be a nightmare with Howard waiting for him in the paint, and Jennings hasn't played great on the road recently anyway. Honestly, 17.5 feels like a more realistic ceiling for him, so I’m taking the over on 19.5.
Even if Jennings only dropped 8 in the first matchup, he admitted he’s been in a slump and hasn't been playing at 100%. He’s looking to bounce back, so I’m expecting a solid game from him. Not sure how much volume he'll get, but I see massive value in this under.