Posts by Joshua Gonzalez33

Denver vs Sacramento @3:30 AM 06.03. 03:00 FanDuel

I’d call this pure VALUE. Denver is finally finding their rhythm after crushing a tough Spurs squad last night, while Sacramento is looking rough—they’ve dropped 10 of their last 12. They struggle on the road, went 4-17 away, and they really tank when playing back-to-back sets. They're 2-for-2 on B2Bs this season.
Denver Nuggets Sacramento Kings 110 : 83
Sacramento Kings Denver Nuggets 93 : 122

Looks like Gallinari and Nene might actually be back in the rotation for Denver tonight. Meanwhile, Sacramento is feeling the loss of their PF, Hickson.

Probably not worth betting a kidney since the odds are high, but a little action on the core feels right.

Nicholas Chase34 said:Nelson’s gonna play. Don't see why he wouldn't—he's started the last three and hasn't dealt with any injuries. He wasn't even on the injury report.

Check out the NBA injury report over at Don Best if you need the latest updates on who's sitting out tonight.

Just stick to this page for injury updates; they’re way faster than anyone else. Honestly, Yahoo isn't even worth using if you want the real scoop on this stuff.

Ouch. 🤦

My bad, I wasn't even paying attention to what I was reading. It says...

Jameer Nelson keeps grinding through despite that sore left knee and right ankle. Honestly, you wouldn't even know he's hurting; it hasn't touched his game at all.

Gotta pay closer attention to what I'm reading. 🤣

I'm digging this:

03/04/12 F Danilo Gallinari Ankle likely. Monday against Sacramento. Let's see what happens.

Nicholas Chase34 said:Definitely worth a shot; given the pace Denver sets, the Kings are going to struggle to keep up with that onslaught.

Same as usual, DeRozan under 17.5 seems solid... he’s got zero perimeter game (hovering around 35%), and I don't see him getting much paint action against Dwight.

Maybe Wall over 18.5 too.

I wouldn't touch Jamison; even though the under looks tempting, I don't trust Utah's defense in the fourth quarter one bit.

@Joshua Gonzalez33

Nelson and Richardson are playing, but Q. Richardson will be out, and he's been sidelined for a while now.

☕

So I wrote

Nelson and Richardson are still banged up.

Since Richardson is still out and Nelson is too—though I saw on Yahoo he might sit, which could be wrong info. Maybe I phrased things poorly earlier regarding them having fewer touches (I meant Nelson). I don't think I'm off base unless Nelson actually plays, so please check that later and drop a link if you find proof he's in.

p.s.

DeRozan is averaging 19.0 points over his last five meetings with Orlando. He finished with 17 in the New Year's Day loss.

+

DeRozan last 10 games 18.6 average

So yeah, watch that under.

Sportsbook: DraftKings
Odds: 1.85
Pick: Dirk Nowitzki over 22.5

Dirk’s been a bit inconsistent lately—barely played against Memphis and dropped 19 against New Orleans, though you have to credit the Pelicans for having a decent PF defense, giving up about 19.4 points there. They even gave up 40 to Utah last game. But looking at his matchups against OKC this season, he’s hit 26 and 29, just missing the mark once. Oklahoma is struggling to defend the PF spot and the paint in general, allowing roughly 22.1 points to that position. Dirk is averaging over 23 in his last 10, so I think he clears this easily tonight, especially since OKC games tend to be high-scoring.

Sportsbook: DraftKings
Odds: 2.00
Pick: Griffin vs. Howard, leaning Howard

This one looks interesting; honestly, whenever I see odds like 2.00 on this matchup, it screams "value" to me. Howard has been putting in work lately with scores of 28, 33, and 14. It feels like he's grinding harder now than he was at the start of the season. He’s averaging 21 over his last 10, and tonight he faces Toronto, who isn't exactly elite at guarding centers—they're sitting 11th in points allowed at that position. He had 19 against them earlier this year, but he was dealing with Bargnani, who's been out for a while, so Howard should have a much easier path tonight.
On the flip side, Blake Griffin hasn't looked the same since the All-Star break, posting 14, 17, and 14 against teams that aren't even great at defending the paint or the four spot. He’s also struggled on back-to-backs, averaging only 18, and he’s coming off an overtime game yesterday, so fatigue is definitely a factor. He's facing Minnesota tonight, and while they have Kevin Love—who absolutely went off against Portland—Griffin usually plays well against Minnesota, but I think the exhaustion might catch up to him.

Sportsbook: FanDuel
Odds: 1.85
Pick: Kyrie Irving over 18.5

Kyrie has been rolling lately with 20, 22, and 24 points over his last three. He’s been on fire since the All-Star break, and he was the standout during the Rising Stars game, dropping 38. With Vareja still out, he’s seeing plenty of shot attempts, and I think Millsap and Jefferson can handle Jamison in the paint. Utah is actually tied for second-worst in points allowed to point guards, alongside Miami and Memphis, giving up about 21.1 per game. This feels like a total shootout given both teams' defensive struggles; their first meeting ended 113-105. Kyrie scored 20 in that one, and historically, when Cleveland breaks the 100-point mark, he averages 21.7. Utah is even worse at defending guards when opponents score 100+, which is where they rank worst in the league at 25.7 points allowed. Easy over for me.

Good luck. I'd lean toward Irving and Dirk early. Also, these look good:

over 18.5 Jamison @1.85 FanDuel
over 19.5 Paul @1.85 FanDuel
under 11.5 Rubio @1.85 FanDuel
under 15.5 Deng @1.85 FanDuel
over 195.5 Cleveland-Utah @1.85 DraftKings
over 16.5 DeRozan @1.85 FanDuel
over 24.5 Rose @1.85 DraftKings

Ever since I started following my gut and using that site Play been posting, I’ve bumped my hit rate from about 65% up to 80% on the players I analyze. That’s just for the deep dives I write up for the forums; I still miss quite a bit on my daily parlays, but those I mostly play on pure instinct anyway.

The stats aren't exactly trash; they definitely help a little.

Matthew Bennett5 said:Looks like we're headed for a total meltdown. 🙂

Screw them and their 60-point fourth quarter. 🙂🙂🙂

Detroit (1,10) That's a bit much.
Allen’s clearing 15.5 (1.85). Total bust.
Garnett over 14.5 (1.85) @3.76

Seattle (1,10)
Gasol over 16.5 points (1.85) That's rough.
NY +2.5 (1.90) @3.87

System's broken.

Gasol at 1.95 against Deng? Since they probably don't have Dwight Howard out there, Gasol might actually have an easier ride than usual.
Bryant's going up against LeBron, and honestly? You know Kobe's taking more shots. He’s definitely looking to remind everyone who actually runs this court.
Garnett at 1.70 vs. Nash. Man, this guy’s got Jeffries-Stoudemire and Nash Evans on his roster. I'm expecting at least 5 more points than what I actually took the over on.

Just one point away. 🙄

Parker over 20.5 @ 2.02 on Pinnacle Sports.

The Spurs vs. Nuggets game should be a high-scoring affair. Parker usually clears 22 when the Spurs are hitting that 100+ mark. He dropped 19 last time, but honestly, that was mostly thanks to Green having a career night, which I doubt he can pull off again. Plus, Ginobili is still out.
Quote:
Quote:

Manu Ginobili is almost back from that oblique strain. I doubt Duncan's going to make much of an impact in the paint. Denver is legitimately solid there, plus their defense against PGs is pretty shaky—they're giving up like 21.7 points a game.

It's over.

Waiting until midnight to drop this one.

Personally, I think the under 180.5 for Philadelphia vs Chicago is way too much value. You're looking at two of the best defenses in the league here. I went hard on it, and honestly, that's the only thing that could have saved my day, especially since I dropped some serious cash on Miami—hitting that halftime bet at +400 felt great. But hey, worth the shot.

Wade 🤦

Parker over 20.5 @2.02

The matchup between the San Antonio Spurs and the Denver Nuggets should definitely be a high-scoring affair. Parker usually clears 22 when the Spurs are playing in games hitting 100+ points. He dropped 19 last time out, but that was mostly thanks to a hot shooting night from Green, and I don't see him repeating that. Plus, Manu Ginobili is still sidelined.

Manu Ginobili (left internal oblique strain) is nearing his return.

I doubt Duncan will do much damage inside since Denver is legitimately solid there. It’s also worth noting that Denver has the second-worst defense against the Point Guard position, giving up about 21.7 points per game.

graniteotter6 said:Bynum and Gasol under? How are they supposed to pull through if Kobe starts going beast mode?! 🤷
LeBron's definitely going over, he's got a hell of a week ahead.
The matchups look solid. The main lines have decent odds, nothing below 1.2 or 1.3.

Gonna give this system a shot, gotta add one more pair to meet the 3-game minimum.

Bet-Live Betting Shop

Bamberg (1.10)
Allen over 15.5 (1.85)
Garnett over 14.5 (1.85)@3.76

Stavanger (1.10)
Gasol over 16.5 (1.85)
New York City +2.5 (1.90)@3.87

And a third one without Bamberg or Stavanger @12.03

😁

EDIT: honestly don't know why I quoted you 😁 probably just to say I think Gasol and Bryant go over while Bynum stays under.

Nicholas Chase34 said:I think those matchups could easily swing either way. ☕

Tonight hurts a little bit.

Pau Gasol at 1.95 against denga... since Chris Bosh is out, Gasol might actually have an easier night than usual.
Kobe Bryant at +185 against LeBron James. Honestly, Kobe's definitely going to outshoot him—he’ll be looking to prove who really runs this court.
Kevin Garnett at 1.70 against Steve Nash—he’s got both Jeffriestoudeudemire and Nash Evans on his side. I'm expecting him to clear my bet by at least 5 points.

Brian Barrett5 said:That second half from the Knicks was absolute insanity!!!! Mad respect!!!

The bench really stepped up and did the work... Finally, we actually played some meaningful basketball in that second half. If we can play like this consistently instead of just having one lucky night in ten, we might actually go somewhere in the playoffs.

Nicholas Chase34 said:The odds on Jones are where they are for a reason. He isn't the favorite because... Last year. He won, but expecting back-to-back wins is a stretch—that rarely happens. Anderson could easily take it, though I’m riding with Morrow since he’s rocking the number three. It’s a bummer Novak didn't get the call, too; his three-point shooting is legit dangerous. 🤷

Man, I was totally out of it on that one. You caught me slipping, and honestly, you were right to call it out when you did. 🤣

Anderson becomes my top pick. He’s a solid shooter, and since he's playing on home turf, it only makes sense that he’d get that extra edge. 🤷

Novak is an absolute sharpshooter. I'm a fan of Bonner too, but he didn't stand a chance in this conversation.

Nicholas Chase34 said:Morrow A.-Trice @ 4.50
Anderson R.-Trice @ 4.00
Jones J.-Trice @ 4.50
Mario Chalmers-Trice @ 5.00
Kevin Durant-Trice @ 5.00
Love K.-Trice @ 7.00

George P.-Dunks @ 2.70
Evans J.-Dunks @ 4.00
WilliamsDe-Dunks @ 4.00
🙂 Carl Budinger (Houston)-Dunks @ 3.00 😲 🤣

Favorites: Morrow and George ☕

Jones is actually a killer shooter. I think he's at 4.5 because he isn't a huge household name, otherwise he'd be the favorite at 3, so that's worth a shot. As for the dunk contest below, anything can happen. I’d lean toward George, but since they don't just judge the dunk itself but the whole performance and flair, it feels too risky for me. So, Jones is my play, then we just wait for the beat to drop.

Arthur Hill2 said:I took Chris Bosh over the New York Knicks because I figured the Miami Heat would eventually have to hit their numbers.😍

Just kidding, here's the breakdown I'm basing this on:

Also, a 9.5 spread is huge. Even in blowouts, the Miami Heat usually manage to stay somewhat competitive—I'm picturing the Orlando Magic being up by 20 and then cutting it down to maybe 12 or something.

Too bad Carmelo Anthony isn't on the Stat Sheet; I have a feeling he’s going to have a big night.

I was also drawn to the Pau Gasol vs. Chris Bosh matchup. I assume Tyson Chandler will be guarding Bosh to make life difficult, especially since we all know how much of a liability Amar'e Stoudemire is on defense. Gasol dropped 24 yesterday, so if he gets 18 tonight, that should be enough to edge out Bosh, who regained his lead role once Dwyane Wade came back.

In the end, I went with:

Orlando Magic
Chris Bosh over New York Knicks
Pau Gasol over Chris Bosh

Honestly, you probably would've been better off just taking Bosh under. Even Serge Ibaka isn't easy to score against.

I think tonight’s gonna be a banger. If you didn't grab Paul Pierce over 17.5, you're basically throwing money away. Shawn Marion will probably lock him down since he's solid defensively, but they're missing Rajon Rondo, and we all know how much Chris Paul impacts things when he's out. Plus, no Kevin Garnett either. Dallas should be at 1.30, but you could probably find 1.10 on some overseas books!

Joshua Gonzalez33 said:Deron Williams under, Kyrie Irving over, Cleveland-Sacramento over, Oklahoma-Denver over, Denver Nuggets, Los Angeles Lakers, Kobe Bryant over, Houston Rockets handicap, Richard Jefferson over, Philadelphia 76ers, Detroit Pistons, Kevin Garnett over, Danny Granger under, Monta Ellis under... let's split these across a few parlays and just wait for the cash to hit the pocket! 😍

Last ones:

Kyrie Irving over
Richard Jefferson over
Detroit Pistons
Kevin Garnett over (void)
Danny Granger under
Monta Ellis under
Houston Rockets handicap
Oklahoma-Denver over

Next up:

Deron Williams under
Cleveland-Sacramento over
Denver Nuggets
Los Angeles Lakers
Philadelphia 76ers

Ran 4 parlays, one ticket hit with those 3 underlined, so I'm up. Not bad 🙂 Though I'm a bit annoyed because I missed on Monta Ellis, Detroit, and Deron Williams :/

Deron Williams under, Kyrie Irving over, Cleveland-Sacramento over, Oklahoma-Denver over, Denver Nuggets, Los Angeles Lakers, Kobe Bryant over, Houston Rockets handicap, Richard Jefferson over, Philadelphia 76ers, Detroit Pistons, Kevin Garnett over, Danny Granger under, Monta Ellis under... let's split this across a few parlays and just wait for the cash to hit the pocket! 😍

Arthur Hill2 said:There was a pretty good chance he'd suit up tonight; he was back in practice on Tuesday.

Now I'm just sitting here feeling like an idiot for missing that call two days ago...😳>

shadowjackal27 said:first:

edit - turns out Robin Lopez isn't playing today. Might've messed up my Brooklyn Nets over bet... 🤦 😁

Where did you even read that Lopez was playing?

I read the other night that he was just getting back to practice, which means he'll be back in a week, not in two days... 🤷

Thinking about taking a shot on the Atlanta Hawks. What do you guys think? I see Pinnacle has them at 2.8, but I don't know what that converts to in USD. If the payout isn't worth the risk, I'll pass..