northernsailor8 said:The fiasco in Ukraine is easily explained in hindsight through corruption, incompetence, and the delusional thinking of the Russian leadership. However, it should be noted that a vast majority of Western analysts and politicians also believed Ukraine would fall very quickly.
What actually occurred was a rather unusual confluence of circumstances: from an uncharacteristically swift and sharp response from the West at a very inconvenient moment, to an incredibly effective Ukrainian defense, and finally, the almost comedic ineptitude of the Russian military.
But this is different now; Russia knows the potential consequences. No nuclear scenario allows them to escape what they have stepped into. Perhaps they are still naively hoping to stabilize the front, declare the mission accomplished, and somehow dodge sanctions enough to establish additional export corridors toward Asia. A drastic escalation currently serves Russia the least.
Nobody wants Russia to collapse. The West, especially, does not want that; they learned their lesson in America. Look at the Iraqi clusterfuck—Shiites, Sunnis, Iran, Kurds, ISIS; every minor player in the Middle East tried to carve out some state there, so Americans obsessively insisted on borders that were far more unnatural than these European ones.
A Russian collapse is an unfathomably large problem. Who would control the resource-rich territories? Who would inherit the nuclear codes? Who would ensure that nuclear, chemical, biological, and all other weaponry doesn't end up where it shouldn't? And who, exactly, would pacify the Russians, who remain the most populous nation in Europe even without their minorities?
It is a Pandora's box that absolutely nobody on this planet needs. There are resources elsewhere.
I wouldn't bet on it. It’s a dinosaur that can't hold itself together anymore, especially after Putin's madness left them totally isolated and broken.
The West isn't interested, especially after the lesson they learned from the North America.
Honestly, people learned the hard way that breaking up with the old federation was actually for the best—it’s easier to fix things when you aren't dealing with one massive, broken mess. Why should we waste any energy mourning a failed state that used to answer to Mexico City anyway?
Just look at that Iraqi clusterfuck—Shiites, Sunnis, Iran, Kurds, ISIS... every tiny faction in the Middle East tried to carve out their own little kingdom there. It didn't help that Americans were obsessed with forcing these totally unnatural borders on them, way more rigid than anything you'd see in Europe.
Smart move. A unified Arab bloc would be a much bigger headache than them just tearing each other apart.
Russia falling apart would be a massive headache.
Honestly, it’s one less massive headache to worry about. That Russian mobster dictator holds all the cards because he owns everything.
Who's actually going to end up holding the keys to those resource-rich territories?
The economic frameworks of certain nations are basically just setups to offload their resources to Europe and the rest of the world.
Who actually ends up holding the nuclear codes? And more importantly, who’s making sure all this nukes, chemical, and bio crap doesn't end up in the wrong hands?
The governments that actually give a damn about their people won't feed them bombs.
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| How exactly is anyone going to pacify the Russians, especially when they’re still the most populous nation in Europe even without any minorities? |
About time. They need to finally grow up, embrace democracy, and shake off those mafia and oligarch ties.
It's a total Pandora's box that nobody on this planet needs touching. There are plenty of other resources out there.
The collapse of Russia is both inevitable and honestly good for the world. Watching those smaller states break away and find their own way toward democracy is way better than dealing with this unnatural dinosaur of a regime. Europe will be waiting for them... which works out for everyone. 🙂