quietcobra21 said:I’ll throw my two cents in too.
This is a war over resources. That Russian excuse about wanting a buffer zone between NATO and the Russian Federation is nonsense. Just look at the map. Why aren't the Russians making an effort to seize territory along the eastern and northeastern borders? Like around Sumy, for example.
The most valuable things Ukraine possesses are the oil and gas deposits in the Black Sea (allegedly a bit less than what Norway has) and the mineral wealth in the Donbas mines. Basically, exactly what the Russians have already seized and are currently holding.
Nobody cares about sunflower fields—not one side or the other. You really think ExxonMobil or Chevron is going to come knocking for concessions on sunflower patches? Americans and Englishmen have burned through a few dozen billion dollars so far. What's that compared to hundreds or thousands of billions in oil and gas? Nothing. The Russians know it too. If they let the Americans and the European Union take those deposits, they can kiss their gas sales to Europe goodbye. There isn't a theoretical chance the Americans and Englishmen will just let Russia annex everything they're holding right now. It means they've raised the stakes and they aren't folding now that they have much stronger hands. They'll keep raising the ante until the Russians fold and try to negotiate a peace treaty just to salvage something. Just look at the weapons being sent to the Ukrainians. About twenty HIMARS batteries changed the entire battlefield. Now imagine if they send three times that amount plus ATACMS missiles. It's not like they don't have them. Anyone who plays poker knows you raise the stakes when you're holding a winning hand...
So... watching how this ends will be interesting. The stakes have been bumped up for now, but there's plenty of room to go higher. Whoever's bluffing is the one who's going to lose.
My take is that the Russians lost this war the moment they sent that first soldier into Ukraine. Putin didn't just bite the bait; he swallowed the whole bucket, and he realized that on the second day of the invasion. But hey, no turning back now...
The Chinese are staying quiet and wise. India is doing the same. Iran sent drones, and in return, they got a partial revolution in the form of women's rights protests. I doubt they'll be sending many more drones. Americans don't make threats; only the person with the weaker hand does that.
Putin might be a decent chess player, but he's a lousy poker player. And this is a game of poker, not chess.
This is basically a fight for Russia's survival because things are starting to fall apart internally. There's this growing trend of moving toward the West. They're losing pieces one by one... How does Putin stop that?
By tightening control through fear and manufacturing an external enemy.
That Russian excuse about wanting a buffer zone between NATO and Russia is total nonsense.
True. But they want to freeze the borders where they are forever, not have countries breaking away on their own terms.
The most valuable stuff Ukraine has is the oil and gas in the Sea of Japan (allegedly not quite as much as Norway has) and the mineral wealth in the Donbas mines.
What's left for the Russians if they lose access to that?
So, exactly what the Russians took and are currently holding.
Basically, they grabbed their "Frontier," but the real plan was to take the whole damn cake.
Nobody cares about sunflower fields—not one side or the other.
Who are "the others"? Given its role as the world's breadbasket, Ukraine matters.
Do you really think ExxonMobil or Chevron are going to ask for concessions on sunflower fields? Americans and the British have already burned tens of billions of dollars; that's nothing compared to the hundreds of billions or even trillions in oil and gas. Zilch.
So, "the Americans and the British cooked everything up," while Putin's Russians are just innocent bystanders...
The Russians know it too. If they let the Americans and the European Union take those deposits, they can kiss selling their gas to the European Union goodbye.
Smart Russians, indeed...So they claim they're defending themselves from, I don't know, some
"conspiracy and shadow elites pulling the strings".
And you don't even mention the Ukrainians, like they have any say in it. Are they just being played by the, uh, "greedy capitalists" in some conspiracy theory?
| There’s zero chance Americans and Englishmen are just going to let Russia annex what they're holding right now. |
Always "Americans and Englishmen" blocking someone. What exactly is this "territory Russia is holding"?
It means they raised the stakes for nothing and are folding now just when they actually have the better hand. Basically, they'll keep raising until Russia folds and asks for a truce—just enough to save face or salvage something.
"Russia asks for a truce," sure... while the US and UK won't budge an inch. Real villains, aren't they?
Just look at the kind of hardware they're sending to the Ukrainians.
What else should they send? Magic wands?
About twenty HIMARS batteries completely flipped the script on the battlefield. Now imagine if they sent three times that along with ATACMS. They have them. Anyone who knows how to play poker knows you raise the stakes when you're holding a winning hand...
What poker? What hands? Who we even talking about?
So yeah... watching how this plays out is going to be interesting.
Yeah, "interesting" to watch Russian tanks rolling over someone else's land...
Stakes are up for now, but there's plenty of room to go higher. If you're bluffing, you're busted.
In my book, Russia lost the war the second they sent that first soldier into Ukraine.
And we're still waiting for them to fold. They'll fold because they ran into people who refuse to surrender, and people who were smart enough to get out of their way fast.
Did the West push them into this, or did they just ignore the warnings?
Putin realized he didn't just swallow one bait, he swallowed the whole damn bucket, and he figured that out pretty much immediately after the invasion started. But hey, no turning back now...
He learned the hard way that his cronies gave him a totally skewed picture of how much Ukrainians actually care about their freedom.
The Chinese are staying quiet and playing it smart.
They've started distancing themselves from Russia, because nobody likes rooting for a loser.
Same deal with India. Iran sent over some drones and ended up getting a half-baked revolution in return, courtesy of those women's rights protests.
"A half-baked revolution"
received? You're back at it again, seeing some conspiracy where A&E "gifted" Iran something? Instead of realizing Islamism just shoved those women right into a corner?
I doubt they'll be sending any more drones their way.
Because... why bother?
Americans don't make threats; the one holding the weak hand does.
Putin might be a decent chess player, but he’s a terrible poker player. And this isn't chess, it's poker.
Putin is just a delusional spy with a massive Napoleon complex. ☕