Posts by Harold Moore98

I just finished up my neck surgery, and now I'm looking to get things done on my lumbar section. Does anyone know how much downtime I should plan for between these two procedures?

Chloe Garcia10 said:Thanks!

I'll check in with the Holy Spirit once this whole COVID mess settles down a bit.

Unfortunately, acupuncture didn't really do much for me.

So, I just had the screen replaced on my laptop, but now the display looks incredibly dim.
What do you guys think is going on here?
Could we be looking at a faulty inverter, or is it something else entirely?

Morgan Booth70 said:https://www.whoscored.com/

Do I actually need to be registered just to see the full table?

Morgan Booth70 said:The thread has gone quiet.

I see people looking for deep analysis here rather than just someone dropping a pick without any context, which is totally fine by me. Honestly though, I’m not exactly a literary critic when it comes to breaking down games.
I can offer something like this, though:



It's pure stats. The table on the left shows the probabilities of how many goals each side will score (for example, the odds of Augsburg scoring 2 goals might be 23.65%, while Eintracht sits at 26.82%, which works out to a 6.34% chance for a 2:2 draw).
I don't even need to explain the part below.
On the right, there's a table with the odds, just so it's easier to spot where the bookmaker's lines deviate from my numbers.

As for the method itself, let's just say I take 53 different football metrics (from OPTA) and weigh how much they actually impact the final score. I use those to tweak the initial goal projections before feeding everything into Mr. Poisson's model.

All this data is strictly tied to the current season.

Now, look, I never rely solely on these charts when placing bets. They lack that human touch—you know, the stuff raw statistics can't process, like actually watching the game live, feeling the momentum of the teams, and all that extra stuff.
But, man, it has saved my skin plenty of times by planting a seed of doubt or nudging me to go against the grain.
Of course, it's also screwed me over a ton, too. But like I said, this is either the very first step or the absolute last one before money goes down. Everything else—before or after—is up to you, whether you play it by gut or whatever your own style is.
Americans always say numbers are relentless, but numbers aren't people.
Numbers don't make mistakes, but people do, and that's usually why the numbers get wrecked.😁
Because if that weren't the case, everything would be perfectly predictable.🤣
The model sometimes spits out results like a 6:6 draw or an 8-goal thriller; it happens. Sometimes when I plug in a team like Paris Saint-Germain or other heavy hitters who are in scorching form, it starts throwing out these wild, nonsensical percentages that just don't make sense given how many goals they've been pumping in lately.
Usually, I just ignore that.
I might check to see if it was just a freak occurrence, like FC Köln going 8:1 last weekend, or if the team is truly just unstoppable.🤣

It might help some people, and it might wreck others. At the end of the day, everyone's just going to pull the trigger on their own "bet."😍

The craziest thing was when I gave a tip to a buddy of mine, and he took it way too literally. He saw the table saying there was a 10% chance of a 2:1 score and thought, "That's it, that's the play!" He didn't stop for even a second to think about how small 10% actually is, or how unpredictable this game is where a 90% favorite can lose any given night.🙏

In short, I cover the Bundesliga, 2. Bundesliga, Premier League, La Liga, Ligue 1, and Serie A.
I pull the data every time before the weekend kicks off (sometimes I don't get around to it, damn it, but usually I do), so I don't mind snapping a screenshot if anyone is interested in a specific match.

If this doesn't belong in this thread, feel free to delete it, mods.🙂

What site are you pulling that data from?

Morgan Booth70 said:The thread has gone quiet.

I see people asking for analysis rather than just dropping a pick without any context, which is totally fine by me. Honestly though, I’m no literary critic.
I can offer something like this instead:



It's pure statistics. The table on the left shows the probabilities of how many goals each side will score (for instance, the chance of Augsburg scoring 2 goals might be 23.65%, while Eintracht is at 26.82%; in the table, that would mean the probability of a 2:2 scoreline is 6.34%).
The stuff below that doesn't really need an explanation.
On the right side, there's a table with the odds, just so it's easier to spot where the value is compared to what you'd find at a local sportsbook.

As for the method itself, I won't get too bogged down, but basically, I used 53 different football metrics (from OPTA) to see how much they influence the final result. I then used those to adjust my initial goal projections before feeding everything into Mr. Poisson's formula.

All this data is strictly tied to the current season.

Now, I never rely solely on these tables when placing bets. They lack that "human touch" that raw stats just can't replicate—you know, like actually watching the game live, feeling the momentum of the teams, and all that extra stuff.
But, I have to admit, they've saved my skin plenty of times by giving me a reason to doubt a play or nudging me to bet against the grain.
Of course, they've also burned me more times than I care to admit! But like I said, this is either the very first step or the very last one before money actually goes down. Everything else is up to you—whether you follow your gut or your own logic.
Americans say numbers don't lie, but numbers aren't people.
Numbers don't make mistakes, but people do, and when they do, they mess up the numbers. 😁
Because if that weren't the case, everything would be perfectly predictable. 🤣
The model can sometimes spit out wild results, like a 6:6 draw or a total of 8 goals. This happens when I plug in teams like Paris Saint-Germain or other heavy hitters in peak form, and the math starts throwing out ridiculous percentages that just don't make sense given how they've been tearing through defenses lately.
Usually, I just ignore those outliers.
I'll occasionally check to see if it was just a freak occurrence—like if FC Köln went 8:1 last weekend—or if the team is genuinely just unstoppable right now. 🤣

It might help some people, and it might wreck others. In the end, everyone decides for themselves when it's time to "place the bet." 😍

The craziest thing was when I gave a tip to a buddy of mine, and he took it way too literally. He saw the table saying there was a 10% chance of a 2:1 score and thought, "That's it!" He didn't even pause to realize that 10% is actually quite low, or that soccer is such an unpredictable sport where anything can happen 90% of the time. 🙏

In short, I cover the Bundesliga, 2. Bundesliga, Premier League, La Liga, Ligue 1, and Serie A.
I pull the data together every time before the weekend kicks off (sometimes I can't get to it, damn it, but usually I do), so I don't mind grabbing a screenshot if anyone is interested in a specific matchup.

If this isn't the right place for this, moderators, please feel free to delete it. 🙂

Which sites are you pulling that data from?

Does anyone know how much a standard health inspection costs? I’m asking because I don't handle food directly myself, so I'm curious about the different rates for different types of businesses.

I just finished scanning a flyer, and honestly, I’m already wondering how I can go about editing it without having to start from scratch?

lonecobra58 said:There’s definitely something to be said about those absover👍here

Honestly, you just gotta hit the pavement for 30 minutes every single day. I started doing that, and even though I've got nothing but a beer belly right now, I can already see my abs popping more after just a month! I'm feeling pretty pumped about it—next step is getting those defined six-pack tiles looking sharp.

So, I think I caught wind of some rumor that there’s a private ferry service running out to Supetár that actually ends up being cheaper than the standard state-run lines.
Does anyone here happen to know the deal with that? Like, what’s the scoop on which private company is running it?