Posts by analoghound21

Keith Moore21 said:I’m actually feeling the Clippers too, mostly because they're playing back-to-back-to-back in Portland...
Regarding the stats, it's all over the place. For instance, Portland is killing it at defending the transition, which is basically the Clippers' biggest offensive weapon. But then again, their isolation defense is trash, and if Paul and Williams end up stuck guarding someone like Felton—who isn't exactly a defensive powerhouse—we're in trouble. Another thing for the Clippers is that Power Forward spot. Look, I respect Wallace, I really do, but he’s going to be gassed. Between this brutal schedule and his heavy minutes, playing a position that isn't even natural for him? It’s tough, especially when you've got monsters like Griffin or Martin coming off the bench ready to eat him alive...

That's the gist 👍

I'm weighing the Paul over (or maybe even that one from Arthur Hill2, that duel between Paul and Pierce against Chris🤷) versus Gerald under

@Arthur Hill2/">@@Arthur Hill2... let me know about Rose once you hear something 😬

Nicholas Chase34 said:Shout out to Boston 👏, I really thought they’d pull something together, but without KG, they just look lost.

👍 🙂

Honestly, I'm pretty happy with how things shook out yesterday. The Pistons played their hearts out—had three guys drop over 20—while Boston looked totally disjointed. Only Rondo actually showed up at the level you'd expect...

Looks like you've got a bit of a grudge against Pierce, huh 😁 ...so, what's your take on the rest of today's slate?

For me, I'm feeling...

Rondo over 14.5 (assuming Rose sits out, which, honestly, my gut tells me he will 🤷 ...but we'll have to wait and see)

Portland vs. LA Clippers: Pick the Clippers by 2...even though they're facing the Spurs the day after tomorrow, I think there's enough friction and motivation here to make them take this one seriously. Sure, they finally snapped that ugly six-game losing streak against Portland with a home win recently, only to drop one on the road right after, but I think they'll be locked in this time. Now, Portland is dealing with a brutal b2b2b stretch after that weird home loss to the Wizards and last night's tight win in Oakland. Honestly, that Oakland win didn't blow me away; they still can't buy a shot from the field. Felton and Matthews have been ghosts for a while now, and Crawford isn't exactly lighting it up either. They relied heavily on the three-pointer last night to stay in it, but who knows if that luck holds tonight. 🤷
The Clippers have a packed schedule too. This is their second game in two nights—though last night wasn't exactly a heavyweight fight, they cruised through it—and they've got the Spurs coming up next. I think they've focused enough to prep for this stretch, and if they sweep these, they could lock up that #2 seed in the West. Injury-wise, I think missing Aldridge for Portland hurts way more than Billups being out for the Clippers. Billups has been sidelined for a minute anyway, and they've managed to patch things up okay with Kenyon Martin.

It would be great if you could drop that little graphic like you did yesterday so we can compare the numbers again. 🙂

Portland:--------------------------L.A.Clippers:

C Camby/K.Thomas----------------D.Jordan
PF G.Wallace----------------------B.Griffin/R.Evans
SF Batum-------------------------C.Butler/R.Gomes
SG Matthews/JCrawford------------R.Foye/K.Martin
PG Felton -------------------------C.Paul/M.Williams

Nicholas Chase34 said:I’m leaning toward the Celtics here, mostly because the Pistons are just a mess on every single level—offense, defense, everything. My only real hesitation is that the Sixers play the Bulls tomorrow, so I’m wondering if they’ll take their foot off the gas or try to bury them by the fourth quarter just so they can rest the starters early. 🤷
And let’s be real, the Pistons are terrible at guarding bigs. Their interior defense is a joke, especially since they can't handle pick-and-rolls or spot-up shooters to save their lives. Plus, they don't have any rim protection; they're dead last in the league averaging maybe 3.7 blocks a game. 🤷

What can I say? You basically drew me a map there. 😁

Look, I know the Pistons are significantly worse, but whatever, I already placed my bets on them regardless of what the stats say. 😛

One of the big reasons is exactly what you pointed out—they've got the Bulls tomorrow, and facing these subpar Pistons today, I just don't see them playing at full throttle. Honestly, that 9.5-point spread kind of works in my favor, especially knowing how much some of these head refs love to gift points to the away team. 🤷 I’m not expecting a total blowout; I think this could stay pretty tight, similar to what happened against the Spurs. Even their recent matchups have been hovering around that range... though hey, maybe I'm just totally wrong. 🤷

So yeah, I'm calling it: expect them to coast. ☕ 😬

Alright, so everyone is looking at the warriors tonight...☕

here’s what I’m thinking:

Boston (-9.5) vs. Detroit 2 @ 1.85

The Celtics are way too overrated in my book—screw those 1.20 odds🙄
they might be thin in the paint tonight; even if J.O'Neal plays, I don't think they'll push it too hard with Garnett. If he does get in, I doubt he’ll see much floor time, and honestly, I don't trust him to cover a 14-point spread in the NBA against a Pistons frontcourt that's actually holding its own🤷). Plus, they’ve been without B. Bass for two weeks now because of that knee injury. Detroit is basically full strength if you ignore Villanueva, who's out long-term, but they're on a back-to-back, which sucks. Still, I liked the grit they showed against the Spurs last night and I expect more of that tonight. Boston’s got a game against the Bulls tomorrow, and besides that, we've got another nail-biter with Tony B🙂 coming up tonight too.

C. Paul Under 18.5

I'm praying for a blowout where CP3 just gets relegated to a bench shooter role, maybe with some heavy defensive pressure from Wall to shut him down again. The Clippers have a trip to Portland tomorrow and then host the Spurs on Saturday, so they might play it safe tonight. Paul’s been taking fewer shots in his last two outings and staying under this line anyway. Remember a week and a half ago when he was in D.C. and barely scored 2 points on a miserable 1-for-9 shooting night?

Also, I'm tossing around ideas about younger Gasol over 15.5 and Curry under 17.5🤷

then Magic somehow pulls some miracle out of nowhere and suddenly everyone's acting like they're geniuses... what a joke. 🙂

Alex Cook said:Acela angle all day long!

🙂

wiredcanyon39 said:Because of the Super Bowl, those Orlando Magic guys are sleeping in Cincinnati, which is like a two-hour drive from Indiana, so they probably won't roll in until around 1:00.

And then he’ll just show up to the game on a city bus. Seriously. 🙂

Besides that, their schedule is absolutely brutal right now. I mean, two games in two days? Then another one coming up in four? It's relentless. Honestly, the vibe in that locker room still feels pretty heavy and depressing, too. And after they get through this road trip, they’ve got the LA Clippers at home, followed immediately by the Miami Heat. It’s just a gauntlet.

I don't even know why I bother typing this out anymore. Just staring at the screen, waiting for something actually interesting to happen in the league, but it's all just noise. Honestly, most days I feel like I'm shouting into a void. Anyway, whatever. I'm here. Let's get into it. kaže:
Atlanta vs Philadelphia 🤔 Honestly, I’d probably go with the under 2.5. Look, the Atlanta Hawks looked absolutely terrible against Meg, and Phil wasn't exactly lighting it up last night either. When you've got two teams playing this poorly, you might as well just pick the lesser of two evils.

I don't know, man, I’m not really feeling it. Honestly? The Hawks had way more time to get their act together for this one. Besides, Philly already knocked them around once this season—they took them down 90-76 at home after Atlanta actually held a decent lead for a bit. Plus, they lost the last two matchups against them last season too. I think the Hawks are going to be incredibly motivated today just to shake off that last loss and prove they aren't total pushovers. They'll want to fix that bad impression from the previous game, you know?

I'd honestly just skip that. 🤷

Keith Moore21 said:man, what happened to you?! haven't seen you around lately... work keeping you busy?! 🤷
and don't go copying Gerald Martin's over/under picks ☕ 🤣

I didn't even get the Clippers situation straight—1.35 against the Wizards (if Charles Barkley had his way) might actually fly 😁

here's James Taylor3's take, now I guess I gotta grab Oklahoma City Thunder too 😬
just a heads up, Sefolosha is listed as doubtful...

yeah, mostly just work stuff... anyway, glad to be back in the mix 😁

you definitely caught my eye there 😬 but we'll see how things play out...☕

though their next road trip to face the Orlando Magic might actually be more interesting. honestly, after that brutal loss last game, I bet they're coming in hungry tonight; they've got a full roster and they look way better than those Wizards, who are playing on a back-to-back. plus, after getting crushed by Toronto last night, the Wizards have the Raptors at home again and a chance for revenge, so they might be pretty locked in too, but whatever ☕

The Phoenix Suns have a chance to settle the score after losing the last four matchups against those absolute disaster Bobcats—especially since they're playing shorthanded without two of their top guys, Darren Augustin and Gordon Henderson, plus Al Maggette. Honestly, after that 112:68 blowout against the Portland Trail Blazers, I feel like another blowout is inevitable. I have no clue how they're even going to cover an 88.5 spread without their main guys 🤷

How many games are we looking at tonight 🙏 ...and honestly, what am I even supposed to pick from this mess? 😵

Like @playmaker would say, here are my early leans:

LA Clippers
Indiana Pacers
Dallas Mavericks
Phoenix Suns +9.5
New York Dwight Howard

Dwight Howard under 21.5
Kosta Martin over 23.5
Carmelo Anthony over 25.5

James Taylor3 said:So, yeah... honestly, looking at those exact reasons you just laid out, I’d probably put my money on the Denver Nuggets too. 🤷

The Clippers are playing their fourth game in five days, and honestly? It’s exhausting just thinking about it. But hey, that’s life, I guess. That heavy schedule is exactly why they had such a smooth start to the season. I distinctly remember back before one of those big matchups against the Lakers, the Clippers actually had like four or five fewer games on the schedule than Kobe Bryant and his crew did. Now, all that extra rest has caught up to them, and suddenly, things are getting tight.

I don't know, man. I’ve sat through a ton of their games this season, and yeah, I get it—they play solid ball. But they just keep falling into these massive holes, especially when the second half hits. And if Jimmy Butler isn't on the floor tonight? We're in trouble. Dever's got everyone healthy and ready to go, though; the roster is deep as hell right now. Still, I wouldn't be surprised if Nazr Bon Stich ends up putting a leash on Blake Griffin. He knows exactly how to shut things down on defense.

And you just know Mozgov is gonna be looking to get even with Blake Griffin for that blatant screen he set on him last season. He's definitely nursing a grudge. 🤣

Look, I get it. They’re on a tear right now, riding that massive wave, but honestly? My gut tells me this winning streak hits a wall tonight. It's gotta end eventually.
I don't care how good the LA Clippers are—free throws absolutely kill them. Seriously, they’re probably one of the worst teams in the league at this, even with Chauncey on the roster. Blake Griffin, Michael Jordan, and Chris Evans are just abysmal from the line. And the problem is they get fouled constantly. It’s always happening, often strategically too, especially when it comes to those last two guys. It's infuriating.

Even with the home-court advantage, I’m leaning towards the Nuggets here. They just look a lot fresher, you know? Plus, they’ve got way more depth on the bench to work with. Honestly, I think they can pull this one off.

Look, like I was saying, if I’m being logical about it, my head tells me to lean toward the Denver Nuggets. You've got the Clippers looking completely gassed, Chauncey had a rough outing last night, and there's always that nagging possibility that Jimmy Butler might not even suit up. But honestly? Screw the logic. These guys are on a freaking tear right now. They've got all the momentum in the world, and if they keep playing like this, they could easily carry that energy straight through tonight. Everything is lined up for them to keep rolling. 🤷

And then there’s that whole exhaustion thing again. Honestly, whenever I start thinking back to that absolute nightmare schedule involving the Atlanta Hawks and the Chicago Bulls—just pure, unadulterated madness—my entire perspective shifts. It messes with my head. Anyway, I'm crossing this one off my list. Good luck to you, though. 😬

Looks like the LA Clippers might be closing in on signing Kenyon Martin soon. Honestly, at this point, I wouldn't even be surprised. Just another day in the life, right?

As far as the Atlanta Hawks go, from what I can gather, they're just playing without Al Horford. (@James Taylor3/">@@James Taylor3, did I get that right?) 😍 Everyone else is just... whatever. Honestly. Alright, I'm up and ready. Let's get this show on the road. 🤷

Keith Moore21 said:I’m sitting here staring at NBA.com and scrolling through HoopsStats like a total idiot... and honestly? When it comes to these over/under bets, I haven't got a clue. I'm completely lost. 🤷
That would be it. Nicholas Chase34 Can I get an answer on this? Anyone? 😉

That’s probably exactly what they're banking on...😬

I’m with you on the Portland thing—honestly, they deserve the win, and man, that Derrick Rose over 25.5 looks way too juicy to pass up

so, basically...

Portland
Derrick Rose over 25.5
@Bet365

I've also got my eye on Denver. A few days ago when the LA Clippers edged them out in an away game, Chauncey Billups was absolutely cooking with 32 points, especially since Ty Lawson wasn't there and Nenad Afflalo was just getting back from injury. But look, Billups struggled big time with his shot last night, so I highly doubt he pulls a repeat performance tonight 🤷 plus, you can't really count on how Cade Butler will show up 🤔

but... the Clippers are probably peaking right now. They're playing at home and it's on TNT, which means their energy and motivation are going to be through the roof. I think I'll pass on that one for now 🤷
...actually, maybe Chris Paul hits the over again, so maybe I'll pair it with this...

LaMarcus Aldridge over 22.5
Chris Paul over 19.5
@3,42

Orlando looks absolutely pathetic right now, and honestly, they aren't even playing with Nelson or J-Rich. The chemistry in that locker room? Nonexistent. Total rock bottom. I don't see them pulling off anything special today against an opponent this unappealing. And look, as bad as the Wizards have been lately, I wouldn't touch them with a ten-foot pole either—I'm actually on the same page as Alex Cook here. 🙂

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/preview;...gid=2012020119

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news;_yl...gic_nba_013112 🙄

I’ve got a massive soft spot for the Clippers lately, though. They're really drawing me in. 🤷

James Taylor3 said:I basically just rolled out of bed to catch those first 8 minutes of the fourth quarter, and man, Mo Williams was absolutely cooking. 🙏

Easy for you to say, while some of us were stuck dealing with work stuff...🙂

Shoutout to the Clippers 👍

Cheers to all you NBA junkies🙂

Honestly, these two are looking pretty tasty to me right now...

Spurs +5.5

Hornets +4.5

Regarding this whole debate about player O/U lines... personally, I usually lean toward the unders. I’ve got this gut feeling—not that I’ve actually sat down and tracked the numbers or anything—but it feels like this season has been leaning heavily toward the unders so far. 🤷
@play ...did you happen to keep track of any of this? 😬 ...I'm genuinely curious what the actual state of things looks like (like, say, those SS margins) 🤷

Raymond Scott18 said:Bucks vs San Antonio under 95.5, over 1.85
John Wall over 16.5, over 1.85

I’d take the opposite on both of those before I touched them. 😛

The Bucks finally get Bogut back, which should give them some much-needed grit in the paint and on defense. They're coming off five straight road games and five straight losses, so they're going to be hungry tonight. On the other hand, San Antonio is facing a Rockets team that absolutely embarrassed them during their first road trip of the season (105-85), so they might just coast through this one. Plus, they'll be without Ginobili, and if Parker and Blair aren't getting minutes, it's looking more like an under to me. 🤷

Wall isn't exactly playing great lately. He's averaging about 14.4 PPG this season, and his three-point shooting is non-existent at 0%. Last game against Minnesota, he shot a measly 30% and only put up 10 points. Then in the last two matchups against the Raptors, he had 8 points on 4-of-14 shooting, and then 21 pointsbut again, the field goal percentage was a disaster at 5-of-14, even though he hit 12 free throws (and mind you, N. Young and Blatche weren't even in the lineup then). Clearly, these Spanish-style plays aren't doing him any favors 😬 and, like @play mentioned recently, Toronto is defending the hoop way better this season. 🤷
It's true, this is basically make-or-break for the Wizards—a total toss-up. But it felt similar last game, and clearly nothing is clicking for this squad. They even admitted themselves that if they fall behind by 7 or 8 points, they completely lose their cool. The only exception was against the Knicks, if I recall correctly—even though those Knicks were terrible ☕—and they still lost that one.

Brian Barrett5 said:What do you guys think? Is it worth putting the Jazz on for better odds (maybe parlay them with Miami)? I feel like they're stronger than the Cavaliers, and they're undefeated at home... right??

They should win, but I wouldn't chase the higher odds on them. The Cavs are tougher than they were last season, and you have to be careful because they play the Lakers tomorrow—who absolutely dismantled them recently. 🤷

My picks for today:
San Antonio vs Memphis under 95.5
Memphis vs OKC under 193.5

Wizards vs Raptors under 185.5
Portland vs Lakers

stormyseal9 said:I'm not exactly their biggest fan... more of a Boston guy myself.😍Back when Shaq was tearing it up, I absolutely loved watching him and his teams, but honestly? My heart will always belong to the Irish.😛

Wait, what I meant was... Raymond Scott18 🙂

Honestly, I don't know, I've just got this feeling that OKC is actually the strongest squad out there. 😛

stormyseal9 said:I mean, if that’s supposed to be some kind of helpful insight, fine... but let's be real, the Washington Wizards have already pulled off seven straight home wins against Minnesota.🤷

I'm still waiting for the first one. Give me something to work with here!

@Washington Wizards fanWhat are you even babbling about? 😬

I mean, I’ve got a feeling the Spurs might end up with six unders against OKC. Look, obviously that's not a guarantee—nothing in this league ever is—but you gotta look at the context here. Even Kevin Durant hasn't really been playing at that elite level we're all used to seeing lately; he's actually dropped five unders in a row after that stretch of four overs. It's weird. Maybe Westbrook can step up and pull them through, who knows?🤷

And here we go again... but man, where are the legends? Where are the absolute icons? If we aren't seeing that kind of greatness now, when exactly are we supposed to see it? 🤷

Look who decided to follow me around 😬

Keith Moore21 said:and the Spurs are playing on a back-to-back too 🤷

Yeah, plus OKC is sitting at 0-3 against them since last season, so they should definitely be looking for some payback 🙂

Someone might play this one for lower stakes
Memphis under
OKC
Portland
Washington (though I’d probably dodge that one, but hey, even they have to take a shot eventually)

But honestly, after getting burned by the Bobcats the other night, I'd say go with the moneyline or better yet, the spread +2.5

Arthur Hill2 said:Here’s a weird little stat about back-to-back-to-backs: so far this season, teams playing their third game in three nights are sitting at a 5-0 record. Pretty wild, right?

I actually noticed 🙂

Keith Moore21 said:Man, forget the kids and the NBA. Now we’ve got these guys from Atlanta who can barely hit a three if they're shooting 9-for-12, and after getting smacked by Chicago following four free throws in the last two days? Please. I can't even get a win against Miami without Wade and James being out there. Don't give me that, man. 🙂

These Hawks are honestly unbelievable 😕

Here’s what’s rattling around in my brain for today... (thinking about tossing one of these into my sleeper bet too)

Washington +2.5 SS... Minnesota is playing without John Beasly, and even Barea is a question mark. Even if he does suit up, he probably won't be 100% fit and likely won't see much meaningful minutes anyway 🤷 maybe it's finally time for the Wizards to grab their first win

Memphis under 88.5 SS... They've played four road games so far, and they've only cleared this line once, and even then it was a struggle against a Minnesota squad that can't defend for anything; (against the Spurs they put up 82, against the Bulls 64, against Minnesota 90, and against Utah 85). So, just the other night against the Jazz, they only managed 85 despite a hot Tony Allen and little Pau Gasol. Since Zach Randolph isn't going to be there tonight, they'll likely be outmatched under the rim against the Lakers. Plus, their perimeter shooting is pretty pathetic—averaging 91.7 PPG, which puts them 22nd in the league, with a 47% clip from two and a miserable 21% from deep. I think they're going to struggle to clear this number. Expecting the Lakers (5:4) to be locked in and hungry for the win

Pau Gasol over 16.5 HT... With Al-Farouq McRoberts out, if this doesn't turn into a total blowout, he should see some extra time on the floor. And since Randolph is out, Cunningham will probably have to cover him, so I think he could easily sail past this line given the circumstances 🤷

Portland (-10.5) SS, HT... In my book, they're one of the toughest teams to face at home. I think that loss to the Suns last game is really eating at them, and they'll be looking to make up for it tonight. They should dominate the Cavaliers at almost every position, and I'm smelling a blowout here 🤷

Oh, and I'm rooting for another OKC win, regardless of that brutal back-to-back-to-back schedule

analoghound21 said:easy peasy 😬

what a comeback from the kings 🙏

today Charlotte ... 🤷

edit: wait, why OKC under? can I get a little explanation if it’s not too much trouble? 🤷

I'm really feeling OKC over 107.5 here. They had plenty of time to recover after that loss to Portland, and honestly, they look like they’ll be hungry to just unload on a Houston defense that’s basically a sieve. In their last three home matchups against them, they dropped 117, 116, and 122. I don't see defense being anyone's priority tonight, especially not for the Rockets 🤷

analoghound21 said:Ben Gordon and Willie Stuckey are both out for the Pistons tonight, and the 76ers are playing their first game back at home after five straight road games and a day of rest

Philadelphia 76ers -8.5 🤷

OKC and Philly are easy wins, honestly. You could have even asked for more juice there—total cakewalk 😬

The Hawks headed to overtime again 🙏 ...and me, being the greedy idiot I am, didn't cover the tie. Turns out the Bobcats' incompetence was the deciding factor rather than the Hawks being tired. Dammit 😳