Guy under 20.5 @ 1.85 Honestly, besides Iggy, I don't think Guy is going to find much room to operate here.
Evans under 17.5 @ 1.85 Evans always seems to step it up playing at home, and even with how bad the Heat are at covering the Point Guard, he probably won't get many touches in the paint, especially if this turns into a total blowout.
Memphis - Philadelphia 2 @ 1.90 If Philly can actually shut down Guy, they should be able to walk away with a win, especially since they had an extra day of rest compared to Memphis.
I'm really feeling that pick from wiredcanyon39, Spurs over 91.5 👍
Nicholas Chase34 said:Alright, I’m going big on this one and putting some serious skin in the game: I’m feeling like we should take the under on Amar'e Stoudemire scoring more than 19.5 points at 1.85, because honestly, it just feels like one of those nights where the defense is going to clamp down and keep him from finding that rhythm. With Carmelo Anthony heading back to the New York Knicks tonight, we’re looking at another massive ball-hog entering the mix, joining forces with Jeremy Lin and the newcomer J.R. Smith. It’s kind of like adding another heavy hitter to a lineup that already has plenty of personalities fighting for attention. Looking at Amar'e Stoudemire lately, he's only managed to break the 25-point barrier twice in his last six games, hitting 26 and 21. Then you look at last night—once J.R. Smith arrived and immediately started hunting down 16 shots of his own, Amar'e was left with just 10 attempts, which barely squeezed out 11 points. With everything shifting around like this, the scoring averages for the New York players are definitely about to take a massive hit. With such a massive crowd of fans showing up to support the home team, I honestly think Amar'e Stoudemire is going to see his scoring average take a bit of a hit, along with his total shot attempts. Looking at the lineup, I can see him landing somewhere around a modest 13 or 14 points; honestly, given the level of competition they're facing on offense, if he managed to crack the 20-point mark, it would be nothing short of legendary. Plus, there's a pretty good chance we're looking at a total blowout victory for the New York Knicks, mostly because the Brooklyn Nets just don't have a roster deep enough to actually push the home team to their limits.
I'm heading up with a win! The Phoenix Suns are looking like a solid play at 1.5, honestly.So, what's the total odds looking like on this one? 2,7750
Alright, I’m going to step it up and go a bit bigger on this one: Amar'e Stoudemire under 19.5 @ 1.85 The New York Knicks have Carmelo Anthony back in the lineup tonight, which basically means we've got yet another heavy hitter hunting for touches, right alongside Jeremy Lin and the newcomer J.R. Smith. Looking at the recent stretch, Amar'e has only managed to break the 20-point mark twice in his last six games, hitting 26 and 21. Last night was a perfect example of how things are shifting; with J.R. Smith jumping straight in and taking 16 shots himself, Amar'e was left with just 10 attempts, which wasn't even enough to get him past the 11-point mark. With the way the rotation is looking now, the scoring averages for the guys in New York are definitely about to take a hit. With this many ball-dominant players sharing the floor, I really think Amar'e's scoring average and total shot attempts are going to dip. Honestly, seeing him push past 20 points tonight would be a massive outlier given all this offensive competition, so I’m eyeing him for maybe a maximum of 13 or 14 points. Plus, there's a good chance the Knicks just run away with this in a total blowout, since the Brooklyn Nets don't really have a roster deep enough to hang with the home team.
I'm pairing this with the moneyline on thePhoenix Suns @ 1.5, bringing the total odds to 2.7750 .
Phoenix Suns vs. Washington Wizards pick: under 200.5 points @ 1.85 Dallas Mavericks vs. Boston Celtics pick: Dallas Mavericks @ 1.4 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. New Orleans Pelicans pick: New Orleans Pelicans +18.5 @ 1.3 @ 3.3670
Here’s what I’m thinking for a single bet: Chicago Bulls vs. Atlanta Hawks pick: HT/FT 2/1 @ 5.25
Looking at some individual NBA player props: Joe Johnson over 17.5 Tony Parker over 18.5 Wall under 17.5 Jeremy Lin over 20.5
And here is a parlay system (3/7, 6/7, or 7/7) for those feeling adventurous: Chicago Bulls-Atlanta Hawks HALF TIME/FULL TIME - 2/1 @ 5.25 New York Knicks-New Jersey Nets HALF TIME/FULL TIME - 2/1 @ 4.75 Houston Rockets-Memphis Grizzlies HALF TIME/FULL TIME - 2/1 @ 6.00 Utah Jazz-San Antonio Spurs HALF TIME/FULL TIME - 1/2 @ 6.00 Phoenix Suns-Washington Wizards HALF TIME/FULL TIME - 2/1 @ 6.50 Los Angeles Lakers-Portland Trail Blazers HALF TIME/FULL TIME - 2/1 @ 6.00 Golden State Warriors-LA Clippers HALF TIME/FULL TIME - 1/2 @ 6.00
stormyseal9 said:Lin and Nowitzki already hit, and honestly, I think Amara is going to pull through too, even if it seems pretty wild to expect him to sink 13 shots in the final 🙂third🤷, so hopefully the rest of the parlay follows suit and keeps everything on track☕
Here’s what I’m looking at today: Kobe Bryant over 28.5(man is always locked in when he faces the Phoenix Suns) Kevin Garnett over 14.5(the defense against the Pick and Roll and those spot-up shooters hasn't been great lately, especially against a Detroit Pistons squad that lacks real rim protection) Denver vs Oklahoma under 208.5 (that total feels way too high for me) Minnesota vs Philadelphia 2 @ 2.0(it feels like time for a bounce back here, and I think Philly wins this one through sheer defensive grit)
I don't always want to stick strictly to the same old system, because honestly, these matchups feel like perfect opportunities to shake things up and try some different combinations 🤷 Miami vs Orlando Magic 2/1 @ 4.75 Detroit vs Boston Celtics 1/2 @ 6.25 New Jersey vs Milwaukee 2/1 @ 6.25 Minnesota vs Philadelphia 1/2 @ 5.50 Houston vs Utah Jazz 2/1 @ 6.00 Phoenix vs Los Angeles Lakers 1/2 @ 5.75 Cleveland vs Sacramento 2/1 @ 5.75 3/7, 6/7, 7/7
01:00 Kevin Martin pick: over 19.5 points @ 1.85 I honestly think Kevin Martin should put up a massive performance in tonight's game because the Utah Jazz are absolutely struggling to defend the backcourt, sitting right at the bottom of the league (#29) in that department. Devin Harris and Raj Bell just aren't elite defenders, especially when you look at how they handle pick and roll ball handlers or spot-up shooters; while Bell might hold his own in isolation, looking at the big picture, they simply aren't stout enough to be considered a quality defense. The Jazz are pretty vulnerable in one-on-one situations, so I expect Martin to tear through their perimeter defense with those spot-up jumpers and maybe some isolation plays or hand-off shots, which have been a weakness for the visitors lately. When you factor in that the Jazz lead the league in sending opponents to the free-throw line (averaging 7.1 per game), and Martin is a specialist at drawing contact (averaging 4.3 FTA), betting on him to hit 20+ feels like a safe bet. In their last four matchups, Martin has been averaging a cool 25.75 points and getting to the stripe about 11.75 times on average. The Rockets' backcourt is definitely going to control the tempo just like they have in previous meetings, and I see Martin playing a huge role in that dominance.
01:00 Deron Williams pick: under 24.5 points @ 1.85 The Brooklyn Nets finally get their starting center Brook Lopez back into the lineup after he's been sidelined for a while with that foot injury. With him back in the mix, there's going to be more movement and more players demanding touches, which means Deron Williams will likely see a dip in his shot attempts. Plus, he logged a heavy 42 minutes against the Chicago Bulls last night, so fatigue is definitely going to be a factor here. He hasn't really exploded for huge numbers against the Milwaukee Bucks in their recent matchups anyway, and he tends to play a bit below his usual level when he's at home, so I'm hoping he focuses more on feeding Lopez. Personally, I think this line is set way too high considering the roster shift, so grabbing the under feels like a solid value play.
So, I put together this little lucky parlay, and honestly, after watching how Tony Parker was playing, I had already mentally written it off, but man, lady luck really decided to smile on me this time 🤣 😲 Stephen Curry 👍
The slate is looking pretty stacked today, so hopefully we can pull something high-quality out of the mix ☕
Arthur Hill2 said:Hey Play, if you don't mind, could you do me a quick favor and check out how Milwaukee is holding up when it comes to defending the three? 🙂
Right now, the Bucks are sitting at 19th in the league for three-point defense, allowing about 35.6%. 🙂 http://www.teamrankings.com/nba/stat...hree-point-pct
I’ve got a gut feeling we’re looking at a total blowout for Orlando here, mostly because the Bucks seem to be hitting a bit of a rough patch right now 🤷
shadowjackal27 said:I’m not really sure, you think they’ll drop the line in the SS by at least another bucket? I’m probably going to take the over on this 17.5 anyway, just nothing crazy large.
If they move it down to 15 or 16, then I’ll jump in with a standard stake, basically what I’d put on an under 19.5.
Honestly, I highly doubt they'll lower the number; it's more likely they'll just shave the odds on the under 17.5 to something like 1.70. Then again, it all comes down to how Pinnacle moves, and I haven't quite figured out their vibe when it comes to tweaking lines and odds...🙂
Well, looks like Pinnacle just posted 17.5, so there won't be any line adjustments happening here.😁
But hey, keep a close eye on those odds shifts over at the SS.🤣
shadowjackal27 said:It doesn't really matter... I could easily drop down to 5 points if things go south🤣
Honestly, taking the over feels like a solid move here. Just looking for those 17 points to land.🤣
I still remember back when the Lottery shifted the under 22.5 for Jeremy Lin from 1.85 down to 1.45, and then the guy just goes out there and drops 27.
😂 Hold off for now, man. You know the folks over at Pinnacle are just waiting to pounce.🤣
If they happen to drop the line to 15.5, expect some major shifts—that’s when hitting the over actually starts looking tempting.😂
Nicholas Chase34 said:edit: adding a pick: 01:00, Brandon Jennings, pick: under 19.5 points @ 1.85, Pinnacle The actual line should probably be closer to 17.5, so I'm more than happy to grab this 19.5.
Pinnacle dropped it to 17.5 🙄
Hey Pinnacle fans, I think I got a bit mixed up here—the actual threshold really ought to be 30.5 points, could someone take a look and fix that? 🤣 😂 🤷
why pick Philly over Dallas? Is there a specific reason behind that?
I’m just asking because from what I can see, Dallas has been playing absolutely lights out over their last few games. The only thing I don't know is if they're missing anyone on the roster for tonight.🙄
It's Philly because the Mavericks are going to be without Terry, West, and potentially Beaubois, plus Philly is generally a tough place to play when you're on the road. 🤷
04:30, Los Angeles Lakers - Phoenix Suns, pick: under 186.5 points @ 1.91 Betway
These two squads have already faced off this season, and the Lakers walked away with a 99-83 win (totaling 182 points), where the line was set at 192. Naturally, the oddsmakers realized they missed the mark and dropped the limit by 6 points, but if you ask me, even that feels a bit too high for these two teams. Phoenix has played the under in about 70% of their games this season, sitting right at the top alongside New York City in that department. The Lakers aren't far behind either, with 60.7% of their matchups staying under the total(#4). When Phoenix is coming off a rest day, their over/under split is a wild 4-14 (77.77% - 22.23%). Both sides struggle with pace, as the Lakers rank #25 in possessions per game (93.1) and Phoenix sits at #20 (94.8). Plus, they are both bottom-feeders when it comes to creating extra scoring opportunities—Lakers at #29 and Phoenix at #26. You’ve got older rosters here that just don't run a high-octane game, which explains why the totals stay so low. When I crunch all the numbers, it feels like the real sweet spot is closer to 180.5, maybe something like a 94-86 finish, so I'm feeling confident taking the under 186.5. ☕
LeBron: Bynum under 15.5 @ 1.85 Philadelphia 1 @ 1.75 Jennings under 19.5 @ 1.85
The free agent J. R. Smith is headed to the Knicks, though he won't see any action until Sunday. He'll be sliding into a hybrid wing role for the Knicks, where he and Iman Shumpert will likely handle those backup perimeter spots. You'll see guys like Bill Walker, Toney Douglas, and Steve Novak rotating in and out, but they'll mostly be playing second fiddle to Shumpert and Smith—provided Smith keeps things steady and avoids the wild antics he's known for. Last year in Denver, he put up decent numbers—about 12.3 points, 4.1 boards, 1.6 threes, and 1.2 steals in roughly 25 minutes—so he has talent, but his playing time might be limited. He's definitely an interesting option, but probably not a must-have for your 8- or 9-category fantasy leagues. Pretty interesting stuff ☕
edit: adding another pick: 01:00, Brandon Jennings, pick: under 19.5 points @ 1.85, Betway Brandon Jennings, the floor general for the Milwaukee Bucks, is clearly hitting a slump lately; he's been averaging just 14.4 points over his last five outings while shooting a shaky 31%. His matchup today is against Orlando, a team that held him to a mere 7 points just a few days ago on a tough 3-for-14 (21.4%) shooting night. Orlando is actually really disciplined when defending isolation plays, pick-and-roll ball handlers, and off-screen movement. Most of Jennings' production comes from being the P&R handler (30.4%), transition buckets (21.2%), spot-ups (17.8%), and iso plays (13.8%). He's facing Nelson, who might not look like a defensive powerhouse at first glance, but he is actually quite stout when defending P&R ball handlers. While Nelson can be a bit vulnerable against spot-up shooters, he's been doing a solid job containing Jennings so far, so I don't see why that would change. Getting to the rim is going to be an uphill battle with Howard in the paint, and Jennings generally struggles more when he's on the road. I honestly think the true line should be around 17.5, so getting the under 19.5 feels like a great value to me.
analoghound21 said:I’m feeling pretty good about how things shook out yesterday; the Pistons played out of their minds, with three guys dropping over 20, whereas Boston looked totally disjointed—honestly, Rondo was the only one playing at an elite level...
Looks like you're still a bit salty about Pierce... but what's your take on the rest of today's slate?
So far, I'm liking where my head is at...
Rondo over 14.5 (assuming Rose doesn't suit up, and I have a strong hunch he'll be sitting out 🤷 ...but we'll just have to wait and see)
Portland vs. LA Clippers, over 2...even though they've got the Spurs coming up next, I think there's enough grit and motivation here for them to take this matchup seriously against Portland. Even though they finally snapped that nasty six-game losing streak against the Blazers with a home win recently, only to drop one on the road right after, I really think they'll come out hungry this time. On the flip side, Portland is staring down a brutal triple-back-to-back situation after a surprising home loss to the Wizards and that tight win in Oakland last night—which, if I'm being real, didn't impress me much; they're still struggling big time with their perimeter shooting, especially Felton and Matthews who have been cold for a minute, and Crawford isn't exactly lighting it up either. They leaned heavily on the three-ball last night to stay in it, but who knows if that magic holds up tonight. 🤷 The Clippers have a packed schedule lately; this is their second game in two nights (though they cruised through a relatively easy opponent last night), and they face the Spurs the day after. I reckon they've stayed locked in to prep for this stretch, because if they pull these wins, they're looking at the #2 seed in the West. Injury-wise, I think missing Aldridge is going to hurt Portland way more than missing Billups will for the Clippers, since Billups has been out for a while and they've managed to bridge the gap with Kenyon Martin.
It would be awesome if you could drop that comparison graphic like you did yesterday so we can eyeball the stats again. 🙂
Portland:--------------------------L.A.Clippers:
C Camby/K.Thomas----------------D.Jordan PF G.Wallace----------------------B.Griffin/R.Evans SF Batum-------------------------C.Butler/R.Gomes SG Matthews/JCrawford------------R.Foye/K.Martin PG Felton -------------------------C.Paul/M.Williams
I'm with you on both picks👍
Pierce goes under the line according to the books today😍
If Rose sits—and based on the latest buzz, his availability is super shaky—Rondo is going to have a field day driving to the hoop, considering he racked up 14 points just from layups in the last game against the Bulls.
As you can see, the Blazers are actually quite dangerous in the post, both offensively and defensively, thanks to Aldridge, who hits 42.6% of his shots from that spot. Now that Wallace is moving up to the four, he's playing more of an all-around game rather than just being a post specialist. The Clippers are definitely going to have to keep an eye on him in transition because he's surprisingly efficient there. Batum could really stir things up since he’s such a specialist at hitting those open shots and making smart cuts toward the rim. Honestly, the Clippers are going to need to stay super sharp against the Blazers because they have a bunch of guys who just love to feast on spot-up threes and run hard in transition.
Griffin might actually have one of those massive scoring nights, mostly because Wallace isn't exactly a lockdown presence in the paint—you saw how easily someone like Lee dropped 29 points on him yesterday.
The Clippers should definitely try to capitalize on Aldridge being out of the lineup, especially since he was basically their whole foundation for both defense and offense; his absence is going to be felt big time when teams start running pick-and-rolls, where he’s usually elite at protecting the hoop. In my book, Portland is going to struggle big time dealing with Paul and Griffin in those situations, and the Blazers are likely going to have a tough time matching up against the length and height the Clippers bring to the floor.🤷
analoghound21 said:So, everyone's looking at the Warriors tonight...☕ here's what I'm thinking: Boston (-9.5) vs Detroit (+2) @ 1.85 Chris Paul under 18.5 points
Props to Boston 👏, I honestly thought they might pull off something big, but without KG out there, they just look totally lost.
Man, Paul Pierce really let us down last night with that lackluster performance, shooting a measly 3-for-11 and finishing with just 10 points. He’s facing the Bulls again today, and honestly, he wasn't much better against them a few days ago, putting up only 9 points on 40% shooting. It seems like Pierce just struggles whenever he goes up against Chicago; if you look at their recent matchups, he’s only managed to break the 21-point mark once. His average over the last six head-to-head games is sitting at about 14.33 points on 39.5% shooting. Plus, Luol Deng is basically shadowing him out there, playing some elite defense and shutting down his drives to the rim, which usually forces him into tough free throw attempts. Deng is a defensive powerhouse, holding his matchups to around 33.6% on average and being super solid against isolation plays and pick-and-roll ball handlers. I really think Pierce is hitting a ceiling here, especially since he hasn't shown much spark lately, and after logging 37 heavy minutes last night, he's definitely going to be feeling the fatigue. On the flip side, Rondo has been stepping up big time, dropping over 30 points in each of his last two outings, so I expect Boston to lean heavily on him and a rested Kevin Garnett—who sat out last night's game against the Pistons. Chicago’s interior defense is pretty shaky, mostly because Boozer is struggling defensively, allowing opponents to shoot over 50% (52.8%) in the post, so we might see a repeat of what happened a couple of nights ago. Good luck everyone! Paul Pierce under 18.5 points @ 1.85 SS
analoghound21 said:Boston (-9.5) vs. Detroit @ 1.85 The Celtics feel way too overhyped to me, honestly, those 1.20 odds are just a trap🙄 They might be looking a little thin in the frontcourt tonight, and even if J.O'Neal gets some minutes, I’m not sure they’ll risk much with Garnett; if he does step on the floor, I don't see him playing heavy minutes, and there's no way he covers a 14-point spread against a Detroit squad that's actually holding its own in the paint🤷), plus, they've been without B. Bass for two weeks now due to that knee injury; Detroit is pretty much at full strength if you ignore Villanueva being out long-term, though they are playing on the second half of a back-to-back, but man, I loved that grit they showed against the Spurs last night and I'm expecting that same energy again. Boston has another game tomorrow against the Bulls, and besides that, we've got another nail-biter with Tony B hitting the court tonight too🙂
I'm still leaning toward the Celtics, though, mostly because the Pistons just seem weak across the board—defense, offense, everything is lacking. My only real hesitation is that since the Celtics play the Bulls tomorrow, I wonder if they'll just coast through or try to wrap things up by the fourth quarter so they can give the starters a breather🤷 And let's be real, Detroit is struggling big time in the post, especially defensively. They're getting shredded on pick-and-rolls and spot-up plays, and they just don't have any rim protection, sitting dead last with an average of only about 3.7 blocks per game. 🤷
edit: just a few quick picks for the road Williams D (-23.5+) vs Memphis @ 1.85 under Jamison A (-18.5+) Cleveland vs Indy @ 1.85 under Nash S (-13.5+) Phoenix vs Atlanta @ 1.85 over New York (199.5) vs Sacramento @ 1.85 under Boston/Detroit (93.5) @ 1.7 over @ 19.91 😁
