Posts by Nicholas Chase34

Honestly, this feels like one of my best bets of the day, if not the whole week, because I see nothing but a Detroit win here, and I've got some pretty solid reasons why. These two squads have already faced off twice this year and they're currently split at 1-1. In their first matchup, the New Jersey Nets pulled it off at home with a 99-96 score, but just two days ago, Detroit came away with a road victory, winning 92-99. It’s huge that Ben Gordon is back in the mix after being sidelined for about a month; he looked really sharp in his return against the Nets, dropping 14 points on an efficient 6-7 from the field, so expect him to keep that offensive momentum going. The injury situation in Detroit is looking fantastic—they're basically healthy aside from Charlie Villanueva, who hasn't even been in the rotation this season. On the flip side, the Nets are dealing with a massive headache because half their roster is stuck in the training room. We're talking about Lopez (out since the start of the season), Bogans, Okur, Stevenson, Brooks, and LeBron James. That is one seriously long list that includes three starters, leaving the Nets incredibly thin on depth. Offensively, they're basically leaning entirely on Deron Williams, Morrow, and Humphries, while everything else behind them is, to put it lightly, pretty desperate. Let's break down those two previous matchups and why I think this is such a high-value play.

The absolute game-changer here, and the main reason Detroit has the edge, is their ability to dominate inside and rack up those easy baskets through layups and dunks. If you look at the stats over their last two meetings via hoopdata.com, Detroit crushed it at the rim with 76 made shots (FG 38-59), whereas the Nets only managed 44 (FG 21-40), which is a massive gap in efficiency. New Jersey is way too dependent on perimeter shooting, mid-range jumpers, and threes because they just don't have anyone capable of bullying people in the paint. Their only real threats inside are Humphries and Serena Williams, but Detroit already has a blueprint to shut them down. If the Pistons can just keep the Nets from getting hot from deep, the home team is cruising to a very easy win—I wouldn't be surprised to see them cover by double digits. Good luck! ☕

Detroit Pistons vs New Jersey Nets
Detroit @ 1.75 - 9/10 - Pinnacle Detroit
Detroit -8.5 @ 3.3 - 1/10 - SuperSport

William Hughes40 said:Over at DraftKings, we're looking at:
Sacramento(203.5)-Oklahoma City

My bad, I totally mixed that up with the line from the Denver game, but honestly, it doesn't even matter—I'm still calling for us to smash through the over. 🤷

If you looked at how Phoenix and Houston played last season, you might never guess they’d be such a dream for anyone betting the under this year. But things have shifted big time, and both teams are currently crushing the under with over a 60% success rate [Houston 10-16 (61.5%), Phoenix 8-17 (68%)]. These two squads have already faced off once this season, and they stayed way below the margin, finishing 99-81 (180 total). There are a few specific trends making me feel really good about this pick:
The under has hit 5-1 in the Rockets' last 6 games when they're playing on zero days of rest.
The under is also 4-1 in the Rockets' last 5 games overall.
And looking at the Suns, the under has been 5-1 in their last 6 outings following a game where they scored 100+ points. Since their first matchup ended up being a massive under—missing the mark by a whopping 20 points—I’ve gotta double down on the under again because that line just feels way too high, easily by at least 5 points.
Phoenix vs Houston under 200.5 @ 1.85 DraftKings

Kevin Durant is heading out to face Sacramento, and honestly, he should have a field day there since the Kings' perimeter defense is pretty much a disaster zone—easily sitting among the bottom three defenses in the league. Sacramento loves to run and play at a fast pace, similar to how Oklahoma City plays, which is a style that definitely suits Kevin Durant's game. He's coming into this one on fire, averaging 33 points over his last two matchups (hitting exactly 33 against both the Golden State Warriors and the Portland Trail Blazers). Last season, he was dropping 24, 35, 17, and 32 points against Sacramento; his average could have been even higher, but that one 17-point game led to him getting benched in the fourth quarter, dragging his average down to 27. For tonight, the total point line is set quite high at 210.5 because everyone expects a shootout, and I think that total will go over, just like Kevin Durant will likely go over his own line.
Kevin Durant over 28.5 @ 1.926 Pinnacle

Good luck everyone! ☕

Hey, my man LaMarcus Aldridge, and hey you too, Deron Williams, don't you two feel like you might have accidentally swapped scoring duties or something lately? 🙄 😠

James Taylor3 said:Just wanted to jump in and add my two cents on this one:

Maybe one of the big reasons he's been playing so much better on the road is just the vibe at the Nets' arena.

Yeah, I'm talking about the venue itself, because it's not just Deron—other Nets players have complained a bunch of times too (though from what I can tell, Deron complains the most) about how the lighting in there is just straight-up terrible. It shines right into their eyes when they're trying to shoot, which is such a huge distraction.

Deron even mentioned that he absolutely hates playing in that arena because of it. 🤣

Yeah, I actually caught something about that recently—apparently Deron is super unhappy with both the look of the place and the overall atmosphere. Honestly, that might be why he's actually performing above his usual level when he's playing away games. 😍

Morrow said:“There is something about this arena, because it was made for hockey, not basketball,” said Morrow. “As a shooter I notice a lot of stuff. It’s cold. The background is way different. It’s like six miles back.”

🤣

Since it looks like Rose is probably going to suit up—his status is listed as probable, though some sources say it's a game-time decision, but if you ask me, he’s getting on the floor—I felt like I had to grab the Denga under 18.5. It's tough for any small forward to really go off against someone like Ariza, so instead of chasing an Aldridge over (which feels like one point too high for my liking), I decided to pivot to a player matchup. Personally, I think D-Will hitting 21.5 is a pretty realistic ceiling, especially since he tends to play much better when he's on the road. Honestly, if Memphis can't pull off a win against the Wolves without Love—who is basically their entire backbone for rebounding—and they're playing while tired, then they are seriously 🤷 cooked! ☕



If you guys are looking for a reliable, constantly updated spot to track player injuries, I definitely recommend checking out http://www.donbest.com/nba/injuries/. It's super handy
.
And if you ever need to dig a little deeper into a specific injury or catch the latest updates, just toss "[player name] rotoworld" into 🙂Google
and hit that first link. It works every time.
Player news:
http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/307555...ts-player_news

http://www.rotoworld.com/playernews/nba/basketball

Arthur Hill2 said:And what exactly made Billups so great? Usually, a player like that is just poison for a team's chemistry, especially when they're only shooting 36% from the field.

This is actually just a copy-paste from a news site like CNN 🙄

Anyway, having Billups' experience during those high-pressure finishes is going to be huge for the Clippers because Mr. Big Shot is definitely one of those clutch players who knows how to seal the deal when the game is on the line. 🤷 ☕

21.5/Griffin (Cleveland - LA Clippers) over @ 1.85

So, with Billups sidelined by an injury that’ll probably keep him off the hardwood for the rest of the season, there's going to be a massive void in the rotation, which basically means more shots are up for grabs for everyone else on the roster.
Mo Williams has been absolutely killing it coming off the bench lately, so he's the guy stepping up to handle that shooting load in Billups' absence. Now, even though Griffin might not look like he's totally dominating when he's on the road, if you actually look at his stats, he’s playing just as well away from home as he does in his own gym, averaging about 21.2 points per game—and he's even grabbing an extra shot attempt on average when traveling. Tonight's matchup puts him right up against Antawn Jamison, who hasn't really been locking anyone down defensively lately, especially since the Cavaliers are currently sitting near the bottom of the league in terms of points allowed to opposing forwards (averaging 23.3 points on 50.5% shooting). I think Griffin is going to feast on that defensive weakness, especially considering how tired a veteran like Jamison might be on this back-to-back stretch, and given Griffin's solid shooting percentages and how he can exploit poor free throw shooting, I'm feeling really good about the over here.

16.5/Wall (Washington - NY Knicks) over @ 1.7

Wall is rocking at home tonight against a Knicks squad whose transition defense is basically non-existent. Given Wall's aggressive style and how much he loves driving hard to the rim for those easy layups, I don't see him missing out on a +20 point performance.

23.5/Aldridge (Portland - Houston) over @ 1.85

Honestly, he's easily one of the top power forwards in the league this year, right up there with guys like Kevin Love. Aldridge has been so incredibly consistent lately that it’d be a total robbery if he didn't make the All-Star squad.
I actually think his numbers might climb even higher in the coming days because, looking back at last season, he always seemed to catch fire right before the All-Star break with those massive 30 and 40-point outbursts. In his last three home games, he’s been averaging a cool 32 points while shooting 60% from the field. Tonight's matchup isn't exactly a defensive masterclass either, especially with Luis Scola playing, and since the Rockets haven't been all that stout in the paint, LaMarcus should find plenty of opportunities to feast. Plus, having that electric crowd at the Rose Garden behind him is definitely going to give him that extra boost needed to hit the over.

Long shots:
Gay over 19.5
Martin over 20.5

James under 28.5 @ 1.85

In his first outing, James really kept things in check by limiting Alonzo Mourning to just 18 points, and honestly, now that Dwyane Wade is back in the rotation, there’s just no need to force the issue with him, especially since James isn't exactly looking to pad his stats against his old squad in Miami.

Danny Granger over 18,5 @ 1,85

Danny Granger is basically the ultimate ball hog when he's running with the Indiana Pacers, but honestly, I can totally see him blowing past this line in tonight's matchup. Even if his jump shot is feeling a little shaky, the Utah Jazz are definitely going to be aggressive and force him to the stripe, so those free throws should easily push him over the edge.

Monta Ellis under 22,5 @ 1,85

They’re definitely struggling to find their rhythm lately, honestly, only really showing a spark when they went up against the Utah Jazz, but everything else has been pretty far from where they need to be. Since the Oklahoma City Thunder are such a powerhouse at defending the backcourt, I'd say a realistic ceiling for this game should probably land somewhere around 19.5 or 20.5.

Miami Heat (+13.5) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers 2 @ 1,85
I’m leaning towards taking the spread here because if the Miami Heat start pulling away by a huge margin, their bench is probably just going to let that lead slip right through their fingers. Plus, they’ve got that matchup against the Orlando Magic tomorrow, and honestly, Orlando is starting to show some real signs of life and shaking off that slump, so there’s really no reason for Miami to push themselves too hard just to cover a massive blowout.
HL ostali

Other guys' takes:
Allen Luigi Gallinari under 16.5 There’s a serious chance we might be looking at a total blowout here.
Golden State Warriors vs. Oklahoma City Thunder under 205,5 I honestly don't see it happening—between the Oklahoma City Thunder playing on a B2B and having to deal with that overtime grind, I just can't bring myself to believe the Golden State Warriors are going to show up and actually perform like they usually do.

So, based on the latest news that Amar'e Stoudemire is out (RIP Rip Hazell), I really think it’s worth taking a shot at Carmelo Anthony over 25.5, and I'm also throwing in a bet on the New York Knicks - Utah Jazz game going under 194.5.

Luigi Gallinari over 16.5 @ 1.85

The Houston Rockets have a defensive unit that struggles big time protecting the paint—they're sitting at #27 in the league right now—and Gallinari is exactly the kind of player who averages about four shots per game right at the rim, whether he's doing layups or driving for dunks. Since this matchup looks like it's going to be high-tempo with plenty of scoring opportunities, I'm expecting a few easy points for Gallinari on the fast break, plus he'll definitely draw some fouls, which should easily push him over the line; honestly, this line feels at least two points lower than it actually should be. 🤷

darkgull11 said:So, you're asking why I’m leaning toward the Amare Stoudemire over? Look, I get where you're coming from—they did trim the margin by two buckets, which definitely changes the math a bit. But honestly, if you've been watching him lately, you know the guy is practically living in the under territory. He’s consistently hitting below that line, sometimes even dipping way under what people expect. I was actually eyeing the under myself, so I'm curious to hear your take—maybe you can talk me out of it if you've got a better angle!

Thanks!

Alright, here’s the breakdown of why I’m leaning toward the over:

A few days ago, C. Anthony decided he was going to stop playing hero and actually start looking for Amare on the court, and honestly, since he started playing more unselfishly and sharing the load, the Knicks have looked like a totally different team.

Amare is such a classic home-court hero, honestly; he absolutely lives for playing in front of his own fans, especially since his scoring average jumps up by a solid 3.3 points when he’s playing at home compared to when he's on the road.

Let’s take a quick look back at how he’s been performing lately. If we jump back to January 28th when he went up against Houston, he really found his rhythm, dropping 23 points while shooting a solid 10-for-20 from the field. After that, he faced off against Detroit and put up 15 points in about 30.5 minutes of action, shooting 5-of-11. Honestly, he probably could have easily padded those stats even more, but there just wasn't any need to push it since the Knicks were already cruising toward a massive lead and an easy win.

After that, the Bulls took over at the Garden, and Amare absolutely went off, dropping a season-high 34 points while shooting 16-of-27 against a Goozer defense that’s usually tough to crack. Once they headed out to Boston, you wouldn't have expected much of a fireworks show, but even then, Garnett and Bass managed to step up with 16 points apiece on 7-of-15 shooting.
The Knicks hosted the Nets earlier, and man, Amare was absolutely on fire, dropping 17 points in just 25 minutes of action. He honestly could have easily doubled that if he’d stayed on the floor longer, but he ran into some serious foul trouble and ended up spending way too much time chilling on the bench instead of cooking.

I’m heading out to watch the Jazz on the road today, and honestly, their defense at the power forward spot looks pretty shaky right now. It feels a little weird to me because Millsap is usually such a rock on the defensive end, but you can't really argue with what the stat sheet is showing. The numbers are telling a different story lately, since the Jazz have been letting opponents shoot nearly 50% from that position when they're playing away from home.
Let’s take a look at how those opposing power forwards have been tearing it up over the last few games:
January 25th. Bargnani. 25 points!
January 27th. Odom. Nineteen points.
January 28th. J. Thompson Fourteen points.
January 30th. Aldridge. 25 points!
Blake Griffin I can't quite catch what you mean by "31 poen," but if you're looking for some deep thoughts or just want to kick off a conversation, I'm all ears! It feels like one of those moments where you're just waiting for the right vibe to hit, kind of like waiting for a buzzer-beater shot to drop perfectly through the net. Anyway, whatever's on your mind, lay it on me—I'm ready to roll with it!
Lee 23 points.
Gasol is honestly such a vibe when he's on the court, just playing that smooth, high-IQ game that makes everything look easy. Twenty-four points!

It feels like every time we run into the Jazz, they end up living at the free throw line, and honestly, it’s getting a bit predictable. It seems like Millsap and the rest of the crew just aren't interested in playing clean defense, constantly picking up fouls like they're handing them out for free—especially since Millsap is already sitting on three or four fouls per game. It’s like they’d rather just send the other team to the stripe than actually fight through the contact.

Last season, Amare was absolutely tearing it up whenever he faced Utah; I mean, he dropped a massive 34 points at home (going 12-of-15 from the field and perfect from the line at 7-for-7), and then he followed that up with a solid 22 points on the road (5-of-11 shooting and nearly flawless at the stripe, hitting 11 of 12 free throws).

Looking at how things played out, Amare was constantly living at the free throw line, and honestly, I don't see any reason why he wouldn't be getting back there three or four times a game today too.

I honestly think these are pretty solid arguments for taking the over at this line, because if you ask me, the only way Amare stays under is if he’s having a truly abysmal shooting night or gets himself buried in foul trouble early on. I really find it hard to imagine any of these teams building up enough of a lead to force the coach to bench him, so I'm feeling good about this one.

Pick of the day:
New Jersey - Chicago
pick: under 191,5 points @ 1,85

Amare Stoudemire
pick: over 19,5 points @ 1,85

☕

frozengull49 said:Is this meant for a mid-to-high level bet?🤷

I'm thinking more along the lines of a smaller bet 👍

Miami vs. Toronto
My pick: Miami over 102.5 points @ 1.85

I'm looking closely at DeMar DeRozan here.
My pick: under 14.5 points @ 1.85

Quote

Nicholas Chase34 said:Pick of the day:
Milwaukee vs. Chicago
Here’s my take for this one: Chicago @ 1.55 Full Time: 90-113

Washington-LA Clippers
My pick: Thinking about putting some action on the first quarter with the LA Clippers at 1.7, honestly sounds like a pretty solid way to kick things off if you're looking for some early momentum. 17:28


Jefferson
My pick: I'm feeling pretty good about taking the under 18.5 points at 1.85. 18 points!

☕

☕ 😉

My top picks for today:
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Chicago Bulls
The play: Chicago Bulls @ 1.55

Washington Wizards vs LA Clippers I'm feeling
pick: LA Clippers to take the first quarter @ 1.7


Al Jefferson Going with
pick: under 18.5 points @ 1.85

☕

Lawrence Castillo76 said:It looks like the unders are still dominating the totals, maybe even hitting closer to 60% by now if they haven't already.

It’s definitely climbed past 60% from what I can tell just glancing at the boards.

I really need to sit down and refresh my stats sheet so we can look at the actual hard numbers. ☕

Besides, it’s definitely worth giving some of those old-school folk 👍

ageler1 said:Yesterday I missed out on a 3-pointer, but whatever, I'm back at it today

Derrick Rose (25.5) - Over ... Chicago is coming off two straight losses, facing an unexpectedly struggling New York Knicks squad tonight. I’m expecting a massive explosion at Madison Square Garden; all the superstars there have been putting on clinic-level performances lately, so I think we're going to see that same energy from Rose tonight..

Correction: Chicago doesn't actually have two losses in a row; they grabbed a win against Washington right before the Philly game.

Btw, I am totally with you on this pick... this is basically the perfect setup for Rose to bounce back after that rough outing last night. Between the Knicks having such thin defense against point guards and their transition defense being a bit of a mess, the conditions are just right for a Rose over. This is definitely my lock of the day for me; honestly, the line should probably be closer to 27.5 if you ask me. Rose always seems to get that extra gear fueled by a loss, and I'm looking for him to drop at least 30 points 🤷

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Looks like Al Jefferson might suit up tonight; he’s officially listed as a game-time decision right now, but honestly, he told the media himself that he’s feeling good and ready to go out there and play.

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