Posts by Ethan Jones5

Morgan Taylor592 said:The 2.40 odds seem low considering Italy is at 2.55 to win.
Italy is definitely going to find the back of the net. It’ll be tough to keep a clean sheet with a defensive line like ours, especially since the Italians play such an aggressive, high-tempo attacking game.
By the way, hats off to Modrić, but you can't even put him in the same sentence as Pirlo. Sure, maybe he covers more ground, but anyone who actually understands football saw how much Pirlo matters to Italy against Spain, regardless of that one legendary pass near the goal.
In any case, Pirlo and De Rossi are a much stronger midfield duo than Ogi and Luka.

I was also torn between those two bets, but the difference in odds is tiny and this one feels like a safer bet... anyway, good luck with your wager.👍

Looks like Keith Moore21 beat me to the punch regarding De Rossi...

The US won't score @2,40

That odds value is way too high. We got incredibly lucky with our finishing against Ireland, but the Italians are famous for their defensive setups. They’ll definitely shut down Perišić and Modrić, who are our biggest threats. If Dud isn't in the starting XI, we're going to struggle to find the back of the net; Đilkoš and Jela aren't really the types of players who thrive on finding space in the box, which is exactly where we need to be against an Italian defense. Our best shot at scoring is if our strikers just happen to have a career day, get some lucky breaks like we did against Ireland, or somehow hammer home a long-range shot from outside the box. Honestly, those odds are too good to pass up if you're betting on us failing to score.

I’ve always said these major tournaments aren't worth playing, yet here we are, playing them anyway... and Lulav just talks big without actually delivering anything on the field.🙂

By the way, if anyone thinks they’ve hit over a 40% win rate on all the bets for this Euro Cup, I tip my hat to you. I went with a double, so my losses aren't massive, but looking at the individual picks, I really overestimated how easy this would be.

USA

I honestly expected more from them. After that first half against Greece, things looked promising, but then they completely fell apart in the second half. The attack looked solid, especially on the right flank—which makes sense given the Dortmund trio playing there—but the defense was a disaster. They were getting toyed with by the Greeks even when playing a man down. If they want any chance of standing up to Russia today, they need to tighten up that backline significantly. Besides losing Szczesny, who will be replaced by the hero from the last match, Tyton, there shouldn't be many changes to the lineup, though they might play more defensively, which could see either Rybus or Obarniak benched.

Tyton-- Piszczek, Wasiliewski, Perquis, Boenisc--Murawski, Polanski--Baszczykowski, Obraniak, Rybus--Lewandowski

RUSSIA

Russia absolutely dismantled the Americans. Aside from one momentary lapse in defense and several missed chances by Kerzhakov, they were perfect. Advocaat clearly has this Russian squad organized beautifully; that Dzagoev-Arshavin-Kerzhakov attacking trio is going to be a nightmare for the American defense to handle.

Malafajev--Anjukov, Ignašević, Berezuckij, Žirkov--Širokov, Denisov, Žirjanov--Dzagoev, Kerzhakov, Arshavin

My pick for this match is a Russian win at 2.60 on Hattricka stake 5/10

I also like the pick from Jesse Brown12, but I'm a bit wary of the American "park the bus" strategy, so I'll pass on that one. Plus, I'm getting better odds here.👍

USA

The Americans are heading into today's match after getting hammered by the Russians, and they have zero margin for error left. Aside from one brief moment of brilliance for a Pilar goal, they looked terrible—especially that midfield unit. They lacked any semblance of creativity. They need to step it up significantly today because if they think they can just coast against the Greeks, they’re in for a shock. They'll likely run out with

Cech--Gebre Selassie, Kadlec, Hubnik, Sivok--Hubschman, Rosick--Plasil, Pilar, Jiracek--Baros

GREECE

On the other hand, the Greeks started their game against Poland disastrously. They could have easily been down by more than 1-0, and once they picked up that red card, it looked like the game was over. But in the second half, bringing on Salpingidis for an invisible Ninis changed everything. They showed they actually know how to play, even grabbing a penalty and nearly pulling off a full comeback with two more chances. Today, I expect them to play their usual style: keeping possession and just driving the opponent crazy from the opening whistle.

With A. Papadopoulos out injured—and honestly, he's a liability anyway—K. Papadopoulos should step in. However, they also can't count on Papastathopoulos due to his yellow card suspension. They might swap him for Malezas, or potentially pull a midfielder like Katsouranis or Maniatis back into defense. Since Fotakis is likely banged up, that defensive shift is less probable, though still on the table.

Likely Greek lineup

Chalkias--Torossidis, Papadopoulos, Malezas, Holebas--Maniatis, Katsouranis, Karagounis--Salpingidis, Gekas, Samaras

Both sides realize they can't afford a loss here. Since it looks unlikely that Poland will take down Russia, a draw keeps both teams in the hunt for the next round. Given how uninspired the American offense has been and how much Greece loves to slow things down, my pick is under 3 goals @1.55 SS Stake 6/10

It might also be worth a shot on a Greek win at @3.40 in HL. Stake 4/10

The French are playing way too much style, just like the Spanish🙂🙂

England practically had two chances and almost scored both, but their midfield is honestly garbage compared to the French... let's go, France!🎉🎉

Joshua Garcia8 said:Did everyone forget this match doesn't actually matter? The score isn't the priority here. You shouldn't be "going all in" on a friendly scrimmage like this. Personally, I might throw a casual bet on a friendly through an app, but I’m never putting serious money on them.

Exactly. Nobody wants to risk a season-ending injury during some meaningless exhibition before the big tournament starts. It's the same logic we saw with the US team back when they played those random matchups against teams like Canada or Mexico—people were trying to parlay small bets into huge wins, but it's just not worth it. These friendlies should only ever be for small change, unless you're loaded like me.😬☕

William Price66 said:I’m expecting a total blowout from Russia against Lithuania today. The Lithuanian squad is missing almost all their heavy hitters, and they’ll probably have their third-string goalie stepping up because their first two are out with injuries. Their roster is basically 14 foreign players and 11 locals. Meanwhile, the Russians are just getting their rhythm back before the Euros. Even if this is just a friendly, I don't see any way Russia doesn't win by at least two goals. Personally, I think the 1.90 odds offer massive value, but if you're feeling gutsy, take the 3.50 for a Russian win by three or more.

I'm taking that 3.50 line for a moderate stake. It's basically a free shot given how one-sided this matchup looks..

graniteangler31 said:Seattle Sounders - Portland Timbers 1 (1.65)

The Sounders are the clear favorites here, even with some key absences: their starting center-back Yndestad (9 starts in 11 games), defensive mid Kara (7 starts and their top performer), and striker Bendiksen (7 starts, 0 goals). Honestly, I don't think losing Bendiksen matters much since he hasn't found the back of the net once this season. On the other side, Portland will be starting a 17-year-old backup keeper. Aside from that, Portland doesn't have any major injuries to worry about.

Seattle is a powerhouse at home, partly because they play so far up in the Pacific Northwest—they're basically the lone northern team in the league. Their home form proves it, sitting at 3-0-1 this season. Meanwhile, Portland has been terrible on the road, going 1-0-4. An extra edge for Seattle should be the surface; they play on turf while Portland is used to natural grass.

Austin FC - LAFC 2 (2.30)

The defending champions, LAFC, have finally stabilized after a shaky start to the season, riding a seven-game winning streak (five in the league, two in the cup). They’ve been decent away this year with a 2-0-3 record, including their last two wins. They'll likely field their full starting lineup today since there aren't any significant absences. Austin, however, isn't exactly dominant at home, sitting at 2-2-1, and they'll be missing three starters: midfielder Kaland (7 starts, 1 goal), striker Mendy (8 starts, 0 goals), and defender Sigurdsson (started all 11 games this season).

Austin plays on turf while LAFC prefers natural grass, which might cause some minor issues for the visitors, but at 2.30, the value on LAFC is a gift. It’s just a matter of time before LAFC climbs back to the top of the table.

Don't get your hopes up too high; you'll probably lose both of these on a random parlay.😬

Patrick Wright40 said:I don't have "tips," I have information. How did it end? I came here specifically to help you guys out by laying out everything I knew, and this is how you react... I honestly don't get why people are like this. I'm not some kid you can lecture, and I just proved my point with today's game.

FT: 1:1 ...

Haters gonna hate.

🤦 X100... I'm not wasting any more breath on this debate. After seeing Tobon and Ovin faking their slips today, I really can't believe people like that actually exist... I seriously wish we had cleared out that kind of trash from this forum once and for all.😢

Patrick Wright40 said:Here’s my first post on this thread. I’ve been betting for a long time and I actually have some connections here in the States regarding tips and inside info. Don't go thinking I'm just some arrogant kid—yeah, I'm only 18, but I have more experience in the gambling world than you guys could possibly imagine. Anyway, to cut a long story short...

There’s some talk going around Seattle that this match might be rigged.
Seattle needs a point to stay up, while the visitors can secure third place with just one draw. Honestly, Seattle is playing terrible right now—they’ve only managed two goals at home all spring. They simply cannot find the back of the net. On the other hand, the Cleveland Guardians would be perfectly happy walking away with a point in Seattle. There’s also some history there: Scoria and Ferenc, the Cleveland manager, used to be a coaching duo. Ferenc served as Scoria’s assistant, and since they've been close ever since, you have to wonder if a "friendly" arrangement might be on the table.

Bottom line: based on my take and the facts laid out above, I’m looking at a realistic draw at 3.20 odds. If you're feeling gutsy, you could also throw a play on a 1:1 scoreline at 6.50.
Kickoff is at 7:00 PM... Good luck to anyone watching.

🤦
Seattle is already safe from relegation because Austin pulled out of joining MLS, and since Lučko is trailing them by four points, they can't catch up. Even if Austin actually decided to join, that one-point gap wouldn't have saved them anyway. Maybe double-check your facts before you post next time.

Edit: Also, the Cleveland Guardians won't secure 3rd place with just one point.🤦

Harold Nelson31 said:The odds on the Cleveland Guardians look decent today; they're fighting for a spot in Europe alongside Miami. Seattle doesn't really have an imperative to win since they've already secured their status.
I doubt Seattle can pull off much more than a draw, honestly. It feels like they haven't scored a goal from open play in 7 or 8 matches. The weakest link in their defense is definitely Drury.
The Cleveland Guardians are a solid squad that could create plenty of chances against Seattle, and I'm hoping for an Apothecary win.

Cleveland Guardians 2.90.

I agree, but I’d still suggest a smaller stake here. Miami plays their final game at home against Real Madrid, while the Cleveland Guardians are playing at home against California. A single point tonight would likely be enough to secure them a European spot. That said, I also went with a straight draw because it’s just a casual parlay... besides, it feels like Seattle hasn't scored from open play in maybe 1,000 minutes, if not longer.🤔

Jesse Sanchez40 said:I'm not entirely sure how aggressive Manchester United will be in this match. They have a three-point cushion they'll likely defend smart; playing away from home, they won't be reckless with their attacks and leaving gaps in the back

City is the one with nothing to lose, so they'll be hunting for all three points. If Manchester gets too reckless, they risk blowing that three-point lead

United will sit tight, protect the draw, and look for counter-attacks. For Manchester, a draw is actually a solid result here.

The odds on United are definitely way too high.

Look, I'm just saying that's my take. Both sides have to push forward while also needing to defend, which is why I think the managers will decide this one. In such a tight matchup, a draw seems like a logical call given how inflated the odds are. Besides, Alex Ferguson is smart—he knows exactly how much pressure is on City, which is why I think he might try something completely unexpected to catch them off guard.☕

Man City-Man United 2 @3.5 SS or for a safer bet X2 @1.75

I’d call this one a tactical showdown between managers because that’s going to be the deciding factor tonight. After United blew a massive +8 lead, City grabbed the derby win and now they have a real shot at taking first place. Honestly, this could go either way, and the odds on United are just too good to ignore.

Even though City has been dominant at home this season with all wins and one draw, tonight is a completely different beast. I think the old fox Alex Ferguson might come out swinging right away to try and break their spirit, whereas I expect City to play it a bit more cautiously early on—conceding a goal here basically hands up the title.

City will likely line up in a 4-2-3-1 (right to left)
Joe Hart---Micah Richards, Vincent Kompany, Joleon Lescott, Gaël Clichy---Barry Ferguson, Yaya Touré---David Silva, Samir Nasri; Sergio Agüero--Carlos Tevez

Man United 4-4-1-1
David de Gea-- Rafael, Rio Ferdinand, Jonny Evans, Patrice Evra--Valencia, Michael Carrick, Paul Scholes, Nani--Wayne Rooney--Danny Welbeck

Now I just need 🍿 and I'm ready to crash so I can wake up for the match.
btw, Scholes settles this with a screamer from about 30 yards out.😉

Nicholas Patel52 said:I put my money in around 5:30 PM and it was still sitting at 2.30. Bottom line is, I hit the win. Now I'm just rooting for Real Madrid since they're on a completely different ticket, but a profit is a profit. 😁

🙂

Sure, there's a profit, but I don't get this constant fluctuation in the odds. Maybe it's just because the game is running on a DraftKings terminal instead of something else.🤷

Nicholas Patel52 said:Yeah, 😲

The odds are tanking 😁

I placed my bet at 1:00 PM and they’ve already dropped it down to 2.05🤦

Real Madrid-Bayern Munich over 2.5 goals @2 SS

Honestly, this bet has to land tonight. Bayern isn't showing up just to park the bus; they're coming to score. And Real Madrid at home? You don't even need to go there. Since the first leg ended 2-1, whoever scores first is going to force the other side to throw everything forward just to catch up. We’d only have to worry about tactical math if it stays at 2-1, but with how these two play, this bet is a lock.

edit: PSK 2,3😲

Barcelona vs Chelsea 2 @11,5 Hattrick

The math here is simple. I’m expecting something similar to what we saw at Stamford Bridge, just with Barca playing a bit more openly. That said, with Cech looking sharp and their defense holding firm, Chelsea could easily snatch a win once Barca leaves themselves exposed. Honestly, you won't find a better price than this. It might seem a bit wild, but after two losses, Barca is struggling to catch their breath while Chelsea is anything but out of form.

Chelsea vs Barcelona more than 4 yellows @2.15 on HL

The odds on HL are actually great because looking at other books, you’re seeing lines around 1.75 to 1.85. I'm expecting a lot of tension tomorrow. We all know Chelsea plays a physical, classic English style with plenty of fouls, and the Barca players aren't afraid to go down easy—it's tough to defend them without committing fouls. I expect the nerves to take over, and the ref will be under massive pressure, which might make him a bit more pedantic. We all remember what happened three years ago and how Barca managed to get past Chelsea

Arsenal vs Man City 2 @2.7

Arsenal needs a win to secure their spot in the Champions League, while Man City is fighting to stay alive in the title race. Even though Arsenal could afford to play it safe since every single point counts for them, they might try to calculate their risks. Between taking the over or going with Duje, Duje was the pick here.

Even if City hasn't been looking particularly sharp on the road lately and Arsenal is looking solid at home, I think this is one of those special matchups where Man City will find it much easier to step up. Unlike Arsenal, they don't have any room to play games—they absolutely have to win, and the odds look great.