Posts by Ethan Jones5

Spurs +1.5 @ 1.60

Manchester United is missing half their defense and, frankly, they haven't looked convincing at all. The odds for them are a joke. Spurs can score on anyone, including United.

Norwich +1.5 @ 1.50

Liverpool's defense is a sieve lately; they give up goals to everyone. I think they could slip up tonight. Even if Norwich isn't playing any better than them, against a backline like that, it's easy to sneak one in.

LA Galaxy vs. LAFC - Under 2.5 goals @ 1.70

Without their main playmaker, Galaxy is going to struggle to move the ball forward. Plus, their star striker tends to disappear in high-stakes matches, just like we saw in their last big outing. Galaxy is struggling with finishing and won't be rushing things here. Also, with a ref who likes to whistle everything, an under is a smart play.

Sevilla vs. Barcelona - 1st Half Under 1.5 @ 1.65

Every team has figured out how to park the bus against Barca and Real Madrid, which shows in their recent head-to-head matchups. I expect the same defensive grind, but I’m sticking to the first half just in case things get wild late in the game. The odds are decent enough.

@6.73 Total Return

It seems to me you guys are more worried about the state of this subforum than the actual rules of the competition, especially after reading the other candidates' proposals where sanctions take up most of the space..

The whole thing regarding the championship is actually pretty simple: either let the people vote and give whoever they pick total authority, and that's that..

Or just appoint someone to run the show without an election and give them full control.🙂

Anyway, mods, make up your minds. You're just making things unnecessarily complicated by dragging this out.🤷

Sounds complicated.

That's just because you're used to playing by the current system, but hey, that's your opinion and I don't care if you aren't a fan.😉

But if this is an election, I want in—even if nobody votes for me or agrees with what I have to say..

Terry Carter2 said:I still don't get it—what do these pairings have to do with the scoring system mentioned above?
😁

Every successful Duel earns you 2 points.🙂

You’ve got 10 Duels, which means a maximum of 20 points up for grabs in the Duels.

Let me throw out an example prediction just so this makes more sense:

WinnerJenson Button

PodiumAlonso, Jenson Button, Sergio Perez

Driver standingsLewis Hamilton, Fernando Alonso, Jenson Button, Sergio Perez, Nico Rosberg, Michael Schumacher, Kimi Raikkonen, Romain Grosjean, Pastor Maldonado, Felipe Massa

Fastest lap.Nico Rosberg

Duels:

Alonso-Vettel 1
Webber-Vettel 2
Hamilton-Alonso 1
Rosberg-Alonso 2
Vettel-Rosberg 2
Schumacher-Hamilton 1
Petrov-Kovalainen 2
Perez-Maldonado 1
Kobayashi-Hamilton 2
Massa-Maldonado 1

Every correct pick earns you 2 points.

Nadan seems to think the system is finally clear now.😉

Terry Carter2 said:Look, you really need to provide a much more detailed breakdown of how your competition profile works.
Up until this point in the championship, there hasn't been any mention of setting pairs or Duels like the ones described in your rulebook, so you definitely need to clarify that in the rules.
😁

It’s pretty straightforward...

Basically, the winner of the previous round picks 10 Duels for the race, for example...

Alonso-Vettel
Webber-Vettel
Hamilton-Alonso
Rosberg-Alonso
Vettel-Rosberg
Schumacher-Hamilton
Petrov-Kovalainen
Perez-Maldonado
Kobayashi-Hamilton
Massa-Maldonado

Then everyone else picks who they think will come out on top in their prediction using a 1 or 2 tag just like at a sportsbook.
..
As I mentioned before, if both drivers DNF, the pair is canceled, and the person setting them can have at most three drivers from the grid in their matchups...

Anything else I need to clear up, or am I missing something?🤔🤷

Terry Carter2 said:Ethan Jones5, I am completely lost here!
What kind of competition profile were you actually referring to when you wrote that?
😁

For mine
😁

What exactly is unclear? I honestly can't tell what you're asking or what you think is wrong here.🤷

Here’s how I envision the scoring system—simple, yet engaging, with a few tweaks to introduce some tactical depth...

Scoring System

Race Winner 2 points
Podium 6 points (3x2)
Points Scorers 20 points (10x2)
Fastest Lap 2 points
10 Driver Duels 20 points (10x2)

Total possible points: 50

Winner, Podium, Points Scorers

- Post-race penalties determined by the FIA are factored in.
- You aren't guessing specific finishing orders; you just need to pick who makes the podium or hits the top 10, regardless of their exact rank.

Duels

- No later than 7 days before a race, the previous round's winner must set 10 duels for the upcoming round.
- A single driver can be involved in a maximum of 3 duels.
- If both drivers DNF, the duel is canceled.

Box

- Each player is allowed a maximum of 3 "Box" entries before the race starts.
- During a single Box entry, you can make up to 2 changes to your prediction.
- Using a Box entry automatically deducts one point from your total score.

Setting Pairs

- Setting pairs for a race is open from the start of the Grand Prix weekend (Monday) until 5 minutes before lights out.
- In the event of a tie in total points, priority goes to those who set their pairs earlier and they take the higher position.

Scoring Rules:

- Follows the standard Formula 1 logic (25-18-15-12...).
- Tiebreakers are decided by counting most wins, then second places, third places, etc.
- Teams with a maximum of 2 members are scored just like in Formula 1.

Sanctions

- Dropping out of the competition (missing 2 races) mid-season without a valid reason results in disqualification and being blacklisted, which prevents participation in any other competitions on this subforum.

- Any attempts at cheating will result in a 10-point deduction from that round's total. If repeated twice, the user is disqualified and faces the same sanctions as someone dropping out mid-season (see above).

Competition Topics

- I think the official thread should only be used for predictions and Box entries so everything stays organized in one spot. For all discussions, let's just open a separate chat topic.

So, there it is. Hopefully, I haven't missed anything; if it's too simple, I can easily fix it.😉

Terry Carter2 said:Actually, there aren't any! Maybe it’s high time for some revolutionary changes!
That’s exactly why we have a poll up—so we can vote on the rules and choose the host that actually suits us best.
😁

Evala👍

I'll post my own proposal once I finish writing it up. Who knows, maybe someone will actually like it..

Let me just ask so I don't waste my own time..

Eli, does this championship have specific rules, or can I make up whatever I want if I decide to host it?

Also, on a side note, why are there three different competitions listed here on this subforum?

Look, I want to get this running, but from what I can see, none of them are actually working right now. Regardless, just give me an answer to my first question..

Kenneth Ward said:Today's double:

Shakhtar vs Nordsjaelland 1 1.3@SS
The Ukrainian champions are the clear favorites here. They have the Champions League experience, a objectively superior roster, and they're hungry to make up for last year's group stage exit—which I'm sure wasn't part of their plan. The Danes are making their debut; they don't have any major injuries, but there's one small handicap: they lost their derby against Copenhagen last Saturday, blowing it in the final minutes after leading most of the game. Their bench isn't exactly deep either, so fatigue should start to set in.

I agree. Shakhtar is in great form, and after getting burned in the CL last year, I think they'll come out swinging this season.

After the big win by the local powerhouse yesterday brought in some decent cash, some people might be feeling too cautious today, but since this looks tempting to me, I’m going for the handicap 0:3 on Shakhtar at @6.50 in SS with a stake of 2/10. Let's see if my luck holds up.☕

stormyseal9 said:Just so we’re clear and nobody thinks I’ve got some kind of beef with the admins—especially since I actually think Eric Fox7 is a great guy who always gives me solid, logical replies—it’s just this constant push for everyone to write deep-dive analyses that really bugs me. I mean, if someone actually wants to think, they’ll just write it, right? And who knows, maybe the people obsessively following every single PDF update are the only ones who truly understand how things work around here or who they can actually "trust," if you can even call this gambling community trustworthy. I’ve never been one for ultimatums, man, it’s just not how I’m wired, end of story.🤷And regarding what Bambusov said about us not needing to post if we aren't happy—that’s total nonsense. If we followed that logic, 90% of the population would have left already because they aren't happy with how the government is running the country or whatever else. The whole point of a forum is for most people to be more or less satisfied and to ensure nobody gets special treatment, which, let’s be honest, hasn't always been the case here.🤷P.S. Regarding writing all those analyses, I honestly feel like I’m just talking to myself sometimes, because clearly nobody is reading them—at least that’s how it feels when I look at my post history and see nothing but my own stuff.🙂🤷

Ever since these analyses were introduced, I’ve been reading about 99% of them, alongside my usual NBA betting. Just because I haven't bothered to write a comment or follow up on every single thread doesn't mean I don't value what you guys are putting out there. If I missed something obvious on the daily threads, well, fair enough—but that doesn't change the fact that I appreciate the work.

If they bring back the old system, all you're going to get is a bunch of empty praise, people whining about their payouts, and mindless arguments over which multipliers failed to hit.

Look, at least you’re actually trying to make peace with the system and putting in the work to write actual analyses. I honestly can't wrap my head around the people who just sit there doing nothing but constant complaining.

To be honest, I didn't even feel like writing about them at first. I tend to go overboard because I’m such a perfectionist—I always want to make sure every single detail is covered.

Now they’re just cutting things short and calling it a day. That example you mentioned earlier—the one you say is flawed—is basically the exact system a bunch of old-school players still swear by. Honestly, I have nothing against it; I actually played that way myself for a few years. But clearly, these guys are too embarrassed to admit how they actually pick their matchups or run their strategy. I can't see any other reason why they wouldn't bother writing out even two sentences to explain themselves.🤷

If they bring back that old system, I’m out. I’ll be leaving this sub for good, though I might pop into the chat every once in a while just to say hi.

I'm repeating this question for everyone except George Barnes25, who already gave me an answer:

Why haven't you done this?

Look, I don't mind if you want to complain, but at the end of the day, this is just a forum. You aren't forced to participate here the way you're forced to live in this country. So, either accept things as they are or go somewhere else—it won't cost you nearly as much as moving to a new country would.

That’s all I want to know. I basically already know what kind of response I'm going to get, but I want to hear it anyway so I can finally wrap up this debate for my own sake.

I'll reply once I'm home, assuming anyone actually gives me an answer.

George Barnes25 said:Man, some guy here is just totally losing his mind!

I don't know if I've ended up in that camp myself, but honestly? I’ve never been one to complain about deep dives and analysis. In fact, I’m all over the tennis threads!

So, I left the forum. You asked why I bailed...

That was actually directed at stormyseal9 because he was complaining that it was an issue for him. My response used "they" because a lot of people were whining about that rule, and I wasn't specifically quoting you..

I left the forum; you asked me why I left...

Again, I'm using the plural, but this time it includes you too, since you're still posting here and you can't deny that fact..

I'm off to play a game of football. 👋

I still don't get what the big deal is about writing an analysis.🤷

Here's a super basic example I just pulled out of thin air..

AC Milan vs. Fiorentina

Out of their last 7 head-to-head matchups, 6 went over. Both teams have minimal injuries and are in great scoring form right now..

That’s a totally simple example of a bet with an explanation. It takes maybe 20 seconds to write, but you can clearly see the logic behind it..

The reason you guys keep harassing the moderators isn't because writing two lines is too hard for you. It's because you want everything done your way...

As for the cliques, all I'll say is that these "clique members" have complained about the rules and warnings many times before...

Look, I have nothing against you complaining, but this is just a forum. You aren't forced to participate here, unlike how you're forced to live in this country. So either accept things as they are or go somewhere else—it won't cost you much more than moving to a new state would..

Don't get me wrong, I don't always agree with how the moderators handle things either, and I've even made suggestions myself since some of the issues weren't even that big of a deal..

If something really bothered me the way it bothers you, I'd just stop visiting the forum whenever my opinion wasn't being taken into account..

George Barnes25, thanks for reminding me, but I don't see any point in this "fight" of yours.🤷

Record: 3W/5L -2.2 units

Ticket #9

Inter Miami vs. LAFC F+2 @4.80 SS
Confidence: 4/10

The home side is missing Herceg, while the visitors are without Milovic and Maglica. Inter hasn't looked good lately; their only bright spots were grabbing points against Orlando City and Atlanta United, plus a win over Nashville SC at home—though three of those five goals came from the spot. I’m expecting another defensive stalemate here.

As for LAFC, after a decent start, they've hit a wall with poor form and some questionable officiating. Over the last 3 games, they've managed to scrape together just 1 point. Their biggest headache is the attack; aside from Kish, whom they seem hesitant to rely on too heavily, they lack a true center forward.

There’s also some speculation about roster rotation for upcoming fixtures on both sides, but I won't get bogged down in rumors since it's all just guesswork at this point.

Bottom line: LAFC is the better side, but Inter will be looking to exploit them on the counter. For this bet to hit, we need an early goal to open the game up; if things stay tight, LAFC will find it much harder to break Inter down.

Current Status:3W/4L +3.8 units

Ticket #8

Belgium-USA 1 @2.10
Stake:6/10

The USA is definitely not in good shape right now. Having an unprepared Vedran Ćorluka and a clumsy Josip Šimunić in defense certainly isn't going to help us out.

Robert Štimac isn't exactly a tactical genius either; he can't seem to arrange our average players to cover all the holes, and the locker room atmosphere—not to mention public opinion—is pretty toxic right now.

The Belgians are on the rise and have massive ambitions. They couldn't have picked a better time to host us than right now.

Everything else is secondary. I think the only way Belgium loses this is if boss Štimac tries to follow Slaven Bilić's playbook or decides to park a perfect bus. We'll see what he pulls tonight, but knowing his questionable track record, probably nothing useful..

Status:2W/4L -1 unit

Listić#7

USA(h0:2)-Mexico 2 @1,80 SS
Confidence:6/10

The USA is hosting Mexico tonight, and honestly, the vibes around the national team and the coaching staff are pretty tense right now. While the Mexicans might not be the most elite squad out there, they play with a level of grit that can frustrate anyone—something they've proven plenty of times before. In fact, over their last six matchups, the USA hasn't managed to beat them by more than a single goal.

Plus, we're dealing with a new "head coach" whose tactical depth and football IQ are... well, let's just say they don't need much introduction.

This is also one of those high-pressure games where everyone tends to tighten up, especially the American players. Because of that, I think Mexico can hold their ground and cover this easily.

Current Status:2W/3L +3 units

Sheriff vs Marseille F+2 @2,80

Confidence:4/10

After watching them play against LA Galaxy, it's clear Sheriff doesn't belong on the European stage. Since the French league season has already kicked off, I don't see why they'd bother grinding through two matches when they can just wrap things up in one against a limited side like the Moldovans.

Honestly, it all comes down to how motivated the French side is. But let's be real—who's actually going to outrun them? There's not much point in overanalyzing this one.

It’s a shame. Things could have easily gone the other way too, but at the end of the day, it was a draw. I expect something similar when we head to Cleveland.

Current Status: 2W/1L +9 units

Real Madrid vs Maribor X2 @2.55
Bet: 5/10

Two teams on massive 28 and 29-game unbeaten streaks are facing off today, but given the level of competition in their respective leagues, it’s not surprising. Personally, I think the bookies have overshot the mark here—this is going to be a literal dogfight for a spot in the Champions League. Sure, Real Madrid has the home advantage, mainly because their fans will show up in huge numbers (for better or worse), but from what I've seen, Maribor isn't inferior in terms of squad depth or quality.

The Canadian side is claiming they're coming to play beautiful football and actually believes they can pull this off. Meanwhile, Real Madrid definitely isn't at their peak right now; if a few key players have an off day, they're going to struggle.

Regardless, you have to take this. In my eyes, a realistic odd for the visitors would be closer to 3.50, so this is a must-take.

I'm also throwing a long shot on an away win at @7 for 1/10

Current Status: 1W/1L +1.40 units

Listić#3

San Diego vs Real Madrid F+2 @2.90 SS
Confidence: 4/10

Sure, Real Madrid is missing Mateo Kovačić, Bill Gates, and Ante Tomić among their key guys, but they’re still fundamentally better than an organized San Diego side. San Diego just isn't quite ready to go toe-to-toe with the heavy hitters yet—you saw how they struggled against the Red Sox and Steven.

Real Madrid can't afford any slip-ups here. And don't think anyone is underestimating them; San Diego residents always show up with extra energy when playing Real Madrid and often scrape out decent results. In fact, looking at the last three games played in Chicago, two ended in 0-0 draws, and they lost the most recent one 2-1.

Another thing that matters to me is that Bebek is officiating. He tends to favor Real Madrid and likely won't let things get as heated or physical as that brawl we saw from the San Diego players at Chicago last year.

The San Diego crew definitely won't sit back and just defend; that's a given. The real question is whether Real Madrid will have the motivation or if they'll be playing it safe ahead of the Milwaukee game. But looking at the standings and how well these teams know each other, I don't see them coasting.