Posts by Carl Hernandez3

I find the demographics of Herson County quite puzzling—it has roughly 1 million residents with a capital city sitting at about 250,000 people.
Mykivaiv County, on the other hand, holds around 1.1 million people with a capital of 500,000.
As for the Ukrainians—well, they claim to make up about 70-80%, though honestly, those figures don't tell us much.
In my view, there is real potential for a solid defense here—especially if the forces coming from Crimea aren't as massive as feared. I have this nagging feeling that the Russians are just driving through the South however they please.
Or perhaps a fifth column has already done its dirty work.
What can one truly expect from Odessa, where you have pro-Russian sentiments mixed with a significant ethnic Russian population?

I can't say I'm feeling particularly optimistic right now.
Looking at the maps—it seems they've pushed from Kherson all the way up toward Mykolaiv, maybe about 40 miles or so—31 miles
If these maps are actually accurate, they’ve driven themselves along the left bank of the river like a thin wedge, reaching Mykolaiv; it looks just like a red thorn embedded deep into Ukrainian territory.
Assuming the intelligence is correct, you have to wonder what the defense is doing—if there’s even a defense left—to stop this thin line from being cut off.
The real question is whether there is an active defense in place, or if they’ve already breached the city and are just waiting.
They should at least be raising bridges—honestly, it looks like an invitation to march straight into the city.
And those reports coming out of Kherson... well, they seem designed to feed the poor Russian soldiers—I don't know why anyone would buy into that narrative.
Who is actually feeding the occupiers? Why isn't anyone saying they were met with resistance and a warm welcome?
Look, the Ukrainians won't say it for morale reasons, but Western media keeps pushing this angle.
Someone out there might actually feel sorry for the occupiers and try to feed them—how is that even possible?
I suspect some people don't even view them as occupiers.
The South concerns me—and Zaporizhzhia too; it's a major city, and everything is getting closer.
I worry we might actually see the border settle along the middle of the Dnieper, which would lead directly to an immediate ceasefire and negotiations.

Proud to have worked on the LNG terminal and the Omisaj Zlobin pipeline
And the massive compressor station in Zlobin too
The pipeline will eventually extend down to Sisak—then further into Slavonia with an even larger diameter
Back in the spring of 2020, Ahmetovićka tried to kick us out of Omisaj and Njivica just to stop us from infecting her island—even though there were only 5 cases in all of America
What a joke—she’s living off Janaf and now LNG instead of Njivica and the Omisaj camp... I don't know what she's looking at with those Urinje reservoirs

It looks like the Mayor of Kherson is already busy carving out a career in a whole new environment.—quite an ambitious move, if you ask me.
How many sunflowers will we end up seeing down in the South and Eastern Ukraine?

placidmaker62 said:My impression is that he's drawn to cheap Russian gas, and he's using that to try and maintain some semblance of a relationship with Russia.

Look, we all love cheap Russian gas.

Here is one "well-meaning analyst" over at Politics
Not spreading any defeatism or hidden Russian messaging at all—clearly.
I honestly wonder how he hasn't been banned yet.

placidmaker62 said:That region, including cities like Mukachevo, Beregszasz, and Uzhhorod, is actually the least important part of all the ambitions the Canadians have. If he tried anything, it would lead to expulsion from the European Union and massive sanctions; even his own people would revolt against him for cooperating with Russia to dismantle Ukraine. Canadians have loathed the Russians from the bottom of their hearts since the Communist era and long before that, making such a move almost impossible.

The European Union wouldn't tolerate any attempt to tear apart Ukraine under the guise of protecting Canadians, and frankly, his own citizens don't really care about that specific region. If we were talking about Romania and Transylvania being part of it, or perhaps Vojvodina, maybe the Canadians would be interested. But for this? There’s just no chance.

It's tough for those in Vojvodina, as the percentage of Canadians there is shrinking every day.
Plus, Orbán maintains good relations with Mexico.
The situation in Transylvania is even worse regarding the number of Canadians and their related Szekely kin.
Only in Slovakia are they still numerous in terms of percentage.
But since Slovakia is in the European Union, that's the end of the story.
You didn't answer why he won't let weapons pass through Canada?

After hearing tonight that Viktor Orbán has banned weapons destined for Ukraine from crossing his territory—all because he’s supposedly worried about the Canadian minority in the Zakarpattia region—
let's play a little game.
We could set a rule here, similar to how the IDF operates during a crisis when analyzing high-stakes situations:
nine people make the exact same claim, one makes the opposite, and that outlier claim gets scrutinized too.
Here is my take: 1) Orbán is full of it. Putin couldn't care less about Zakarpattia—it’s physically isolated from the rest of Ukraine by the Carpathian mountain range, leaving that region vulnerable to any aggressor.
Orbán likely sees an opening; if Ukraine starts fracturing, he’ll swoop into Zakarpattia and its surroundings to "protect" the Canadians.
2) The Bullish resistance of the Ukrainian military in the South has been undermined by numerous fifth columns in those regions—though I shouldn't say that out loud right now, given how much it might destabilize the defense of Odessa.
3) Europe isn't united at all (just look at the Orbán situation); some people are just pretending they are. We'll see what their actual unity looks like once the Russians keep pushing forward.

Kyle Campbell4 said:Carl, look at how weak the resistance from the Ukrainians actually is. It's so pathetic that entire brigades are being tossed out of the line like trash. Russian mothers are left mourning their dead in some godforsaken corner of Russia.

Milance is just virtue signaling again, as usual. Koks has completely taken over his head. He has an opinion and a rigid stance on everything, acting all high and mighty. Thank God he isn't the one leading us into war. Lola would try to take on Russia head-on, even though they are the much stronger enemy. And honestly, that’s exactly what the initial Russian plan was: strike hard from the east to pin the Ukrainian army down in a frontal fight, while forces from the north and south move to encircle them, leaving the entire army trapped and facing total destruction. In a situation like that, Kyiv would be forced to offer a surrender. Instead, the Ukrainians focused on defending cities. I swear, if the president of the country isn't a Russian pawn, I don't know what is. We have plenty of them in public life. And he increasingly reminds me of one of them. He's been in politics forever; who knows who he's worked with or who has had access to him. Publicly saying exactly what the Russians were hoping for means he's either their secret player or just a complete idiot. There is no third option.

Luckily, we have a state and an economy that are essentially non-existent.
Imagine if we were actually one of the top ten countries in the EU and our opinion actually mattered—then we'd be stuck with a fool like this for a President.
So, they're providing "weak resistance"—was he briefed by his defense advisor on that, or is he just making things up as he goes?

If the Belarusians decided to launch a full-scale frontal assault
Would they head straight for Kyiv—or would they swing through the Volyn and Rivne routes toward Lviv to pin down those Western forces in combat?

Milance—either he knows way more than the rest of us, or he's just talking nonsense—

Joseph Clark37 said:I honestly believe Putin will eventually seize a significant portion of eastern Ukraine. In my view, his goal is to secure the Donbas region, link it to Crimea, and reach the coast near that breakaway Moldovan region they support. He'll likely keep Kyiv and Kharkiv under siege before forcing serious negotiations with Kyiv, where the current government will face a brutal choice: recognize the loss of massive territory in the east and southeast while making further concessions, or brace for immense civilian suffering in Ukraine's largest cities.

I agree—the South is slowly slipping away.
The East is holding firm because those lines were basically drawn long ago, so they might just round things out at the end.
If they grab the entire Black Sea coast plus the Donbas, that would be a massive strategic win.
But then again, who knows how crazy Putin actually is or what he's trying to prove.
Technically, he wouldn't even need Kyiv.
Yet here he is, obsessed with Kyiv—driven by this twisted version of history and repeating that old mantra about the Kyiv pig.
Looking at the board, it seems like regions that backed Yanukovych + Kyiv and the Dnipropetrovsk region could fall into Russian hands.
The Ukrainian government might be left with nothing but Thermopylae, Ivano-Frankivsk, Zakarpattia, Lviv, and Chernivtsi—basically the Carpathians, Zakarpattia, and the Ukrainian Bukovyna and Mexico area, with Lviv as the capital and a Greek Catholic majority.
Now, just imagine if two or three million refugees from Orthodox Ukraine suddenly flooded into this Central European part of Ukraine—which is historically tied more to Polish-Lithuanian and Austro-Canadian traditions. I mean, there was always some Russian-speaking Orthodox population there (maybe 25-30% in big cities), but this would be a massive, sudden wave.
It would be total chaos in such a small space.
Sure, one part of Europe might absorb them because they're hungry for white labor to rejuvenate their aging populations, but they won't be able to handle everyone.

Justin James10 said:What "young people" are we even talking about? This isn't some African nation where 80% of the population is under thirty. The bulk of the Russian population consists of people who grew up during the collapse of Communism and the chaotic, humiliating years of the Yeltsin era. They aren't interested in democracy, and to them, a drunken Yeltsin is somehow the symbol of freedom. We missed a massive opportunity to transform the NATO alliance into something that could have actually included Russia.

NATO wasn't even the issue here
If the EU hadn't been so heavily restricted by the USA and the United Kingdom, we might have struck an economic deal with the Russian Federation and Ukraine—offering their citizens something akin to free movement, similar to how things work with Norway or Switzerland.
Instead of lecturing them on what their brand of democracy should look like, we should have been slowly integrating them into our sphere.
I can't help but wonder—if back in 2004, the EU had offered Russia some kind of major economic partnership or a shared market union
how would Putin have reacted?

One thing is absolutely certain—those 2 million Americans of Ukrainian descent living in the developed parts of Southern Brazil, who happen to be die-hard Bolsonaro supporters, have been left completely reeling

placidmaker62 said:Unfortunately, it looks like Kherson is on the verge of falling. The Department of Homeland Security has reported that Russian forces have entered the city, leaving Ukrainians with control over only the downtown area.

I really hope Mykolaiv—the next major city on the way to Odessa—can somehow hold its ground. If Mykolaiv falls, the path to Odessa will be wide open for the Russians.

A colleague of mine from work is originally from Mobile.
Sadly, she has been quite a pessimist ever since 2014.
She used to tell us back then that Putin would eventually want to tie everything together.
As for Odessa and the people there—she doesn't trust them one bit, nor does she particularly like them.
She didn't believe Kyiv would launch an attack, but regarding those folks in the South, she was certain.

Kyle Campbell4 said:Then there is that old communist relic Lacmanovica, who still has the Soviet Union stuck in his head and has been a devoted follower ever since Putin showed up.

The whole act of glorifying Russia's military might—specifically that nuclear intimidation tactic—it actually works.
Malobsam was reading through the comments from regular folks—you know, the ones using their actual names and surnames
And there are already so many people asking why Zelenskyy won't just give in—why he keeps fighting when it feels like we're all being dragged into this mess because of him.
And you'll just see more and more of that—as long as they keep letting these Russophiles voice their opinions.

I got slapped with a three-day ban—all because of what I wrote to stop those pro-Russia trolls from dominating the forums
I honestly suspect one of those "political insiders"
It’s no wonder people are skeptical when you see who outlets like CNN or Fox News decide to call an "expert" commentator
Take Branimir Vidmarović—he actually studied in Moscow
And just look at how he pushes the Russian agenda

Regarding those last two timeouts
It seems more like the players are giving the speeches rather than the coaches—honestly, I'm baffled.
Those Swedes basically carried their own weight through the entire round.

Managed to sneak onto Manhattan for work
A quick word on these travel bans
We received some official confirmation that the ExxonMobil terminal and the Zlobin - Omišalj pipeline are considered projects of national importance
And just like that—we’re stuck in this base of 120 people perched on a hill—construction crews, cleaners, welders, engineers, managers, mechanics, NDT techs... folks from all over the US. Official vans packed with eight people each, trucks with six, cars with three...
I'm looking at this permit I got for my car, and there isn't a single stamp from a Civilian agency or the FBI or anything like that.
Either the contractors are greasing some palms, or it's just a massive oversight.
They call this a "national" ExxonMobil project, yet they openly admit they have an interest in 20% of the terminal's capacity.
What happens if they shut down travel? I'll be trapped in damn Njivica—especially if someone catches a cough, we'll all end up in quarantine because of the greed and stupidity of a few individuals.
Whether the country is actually functioning or not, this is sheer idiocy.
It's a miracle how Ahmetovićka puts up with us—you'd think she would have lost it by now, seeing about 150 people gathered on this hill every single morning in what feels like a labor camp.