Offside (General Discussion)

Jesse Wells8 said:Maybe those folks in Crimea should consider a name change too..

And as for Veličković, I guess they could just ask Dragan Dabić and see what his forecast looks like..

You don't even realize how close you actually are to the truth here...

If you look at the historical records from the area that is now Crimea, there was this huge group of sailors living there, owning homes and everything, who basically made their fortunes by running transport lines during the Crimean War which lasted until 1856, and apparently, that whole neighborhood ended up being named after the 'Crimea' villa...

Paul Sanders5 said:Terrifying. "I gotta watch my mouth because, damn." Screw that. I'm just glad we live somewhere where we can talk absolute trash about Zokia and Plenka without worrying about some goons kicking down our door at 3 AM.

You really are acting like a total primate here☕

I just took a quick look at the dollar-ruble exchange rate. After the ruble tanked from around 70 per dollar down to 107 just a couple of days ago, it’s actually dropped again to 99... It seems those sanctions aren't quite hitting as hard as everyone expected, right?

Justin James10 said:I just took a quick look at the dollar-ruble exchange rate. After the ruble tanked from around 70 per dollar down to 107 just a couple of days ago, it’s actually dropped again to 99... It seems those sanctions aren't quite hitting as hard as everyone expected, right?

A currency fights back using both its foreign exchange reserves and the central bank's interest rates.
Since more than half of the Russian reserves have been frozen, they've had to jack their interest rates up from 9.5% all the way to 20%. Just to put that in perspective, rates in the US and Europe are hovering somewhere around 0%.

Russia actually has its own set of financial tools to keep the ruble from sinking too deep for a while... and honestly, if you look at it from a certain angle, a weak ruble could have actually been a pretty decent investment opportunity

fadedridge903 said:A currency fights back using both its foreign exchange reserves and the central bank's interest rates.
Since more than half of the Russian reserves have been frozen, they've had to jack their interest rates up from 9.5% all the way to 20%. Just to put that in perspective, rates in the US and Europe are hovering somewhere around 0%.

I was actually expecting an even sharper blow... things tend to stabilize once that initial shock wears off. It's clear the Russian central bank is making moves, but I really thought we’d see a more aggressive hit. 🤔

Justin James10 said:I was actually expecting an even sharper blow... things tend to stabilize once that initial shock wears off. It's clear the Russian central bank is making moves, but I really thought we’d see a more aggressive hit. 🤔

They can't afford hyperinflation—but all these maneuvers to prop up their currency are going to cost them dearly in the long run.

Plus, their stock market has been shuttered for a week now—once it actually reopens, it could tank, which would be just as devastating a blow.

Justin James10 said:I was actually expecting an even sharper blow... things tend to stabilize once that initial shock wears off. It's clear the Russian central bank is making moves, but I really thought we’d see a more aggressive hit. 🤔

What exactly are you basing those expectations on, though? Like, how much do you actually know about financial structures and monetary policy...

It looks like the Mayor of Kherson is already busy carving out a career in a whole new environment.—quite an ambitious move, if you ask me.
How many sunflowers will we end up seeing down in the South and Eastern Ukraine?

Joseph Parker said:What exactly are you basing those expectations on, though? Like, how much do you actually know about financial structures and monetary policy...

Are you an expert in the field?

Carl Hernandez3 said:It looks like the Mayor of Kherson is already busy carving out a career in a whole new environment.—quite an ambitious move, if you ask me.
How many sunflowers will we end up seeing down in the South and Eastern Ukraine?

Well, it’s pretty much what you'd expect—there's a significant Russian-speaking population there, and they aren't exactly fired up about this.

Justin James10 said:Are you an expert in the field?

I happen to know what is likely our finest operational macroeconomist—and I am certainly not referring to those pundits you see on TV—but even he would probably hesitate to venture such bold forecasts.

Jonathan Barnes5 said:I happen to know what is likely our finest operational macroeconomist—and I am certainly not referring to those pundits you see on TV—but even he would probably hesitate to venture such bold forecasts.

It seems they've started posting quite confidently! I suppose if someone really understands the mechanics, they can try to break it down for us mere mortals, right? 🙂

The point is, sanctions aren't nearly as crushing as the media makes them out to be; they are incredibly selective. Ultimately, this conflict would have to drag on for a much longer period before the impact truly hits home—but one has to wonder, just how much stamina does Ukraine actually have left? 🤔

How can you say they aren't harsh?
What exactly do you think "heavy-duty sanctions" even look like?

Justin James10 said:Are you an expert in the field?

It’s not my specific profession, but I work within that sector...
Like what Jonathan Barnes5 was saying, you can't just go around making random tweaks to the system—like these sanctions—without getting screwed yourself in the process, because you honestly can't predict all the fallout with any certainty...
Russia is going to feel the impact, sure, but the West is going to feel it too.
Take us right now, for instance; we aren't even feeling the full weight of it yet, but believe me, it's coming...
Just look at how we have inflation hitting us now, or those messed up supply chains where the actual impact doesn't really show up on store shelves until two years after COVID even started...

Joseph Parker said:It’s not my specific profession, but I work within that sector...
Like what Jonathan Barnes5 was saying, you can't just go around making random tweaks to the system—like these sanctions—without getting screwed yourself in the process, because you honestly can't predict all the fallout with any certainty...
Russia is going to feel the impact, sure, but the West is going to feel it too.
Take us right now, for instance; we aren't even feeling the full weight of it yet, but believe me, it's coming...
Just look at how we have inflation hitting us now, or those messed up supply chains where the actual impact doesn't really show up on store shelves until two years after COVID even started...

That is precisely why one has to be so cautious! Right now, the gas is flowing steadily without a hitch. But once everyone starts raising hell and picking up their tools, things could get incredibly complicated very quickly. Isn't that just the nature of such a volatile situation?

It seems safe to assume their central bank had a clear view of the upcoming moves, allowing them to prepare accordingly. The way Sber exited the market serves as further evidence of that foresight. On the other hand, when you look at measures designed to shift macroeconomic currents, even under stable conditions, they don't always yield a guaranteed impact—let alone in a situation where nothing is normal and you still maintain trade fluidity with half the globe.

People also tend to overlook how synchronizing central banks across the West to exert pressure on Russia creates significant ripple effects for those institutions themselves, much like a butterfly effect in a complex ecosystem.

The wartime equivalent of Mr. Yellowov's logic would be claiming the Russians are weak just because they haven't used their nukes. They have them. They could launch them. It would wipe Ukraine off the map in an hour—so where are they?

Jonathan Barnes5 said:It seems safe to assume their central bank had a clear view of the upcoming moves, allowing them to prepare accordingly. The way Sber exited the market serves as further evidence of that foresight. On the other hand, when you look at measures designed to shift macroeconomic currents, even under stable conditions, they don't always yield a guaranteed impact—let alone in a situation where nothing is normal and you still maintain trade fluidity with half the globe.

People also tend to overlook how synchronizing central banks across the West to exert pressure on Russia creates significant ripple effects for those institutions themselves, much like a butterfly effect in a complex ecosystem.

I think the butterfly effect would actually look quite different from that.🙂

Well, it’s just how things stand now🤣

I was thinking about how those negative macroeconomic ripples can easily spill over into our own backyard—and they certainly will. It isn't easy to keep those forces in check even when everything is steady, especially when central bank interventions are predictable and align smoothly with market trends

boldfox88 said:The wartime equivalent of Mr. Yellowov's logic would be claiming the Russians are weak just because they haven't used their nukes. They have them. They could launch them. It would wipe Ukraine off the map in an hour—so where are they?

I think the butterfly effect would actually look quite different from that.🙂

🤣

Atomic bombs mean it's "game over" for everyone, doesn't it? Is that really a fair comparison to make? 🙂