Soccer Betting Tips & Discussion

The political analysis from The Wall Street Journal regarding the atmosphere surrounding the Kyiv vs Shakhtar Donetsk match was written almost like a betting tip, so I suppose it might be appropriate to share it here as well. 😁

Shakhtar hasn't looked this unconvincing on the pitch in quite some time; perhaps the constant clashing of weapons is having an impact on the squad. Out of their last six matches in the spring half of the season, they have won four and lost two, including that recent one against Vorskla Poltava. There has been a significant decline compared to last season when they secured 79 points out of a possible 90. However, Dynamo also stumbled in their draw against Karpaty Lviv (2-2). Shakhtar currently sits at 47 points, while Dynamo is at 43, and honestly, the best title chances might actually belong to Strinić's and Kalinić's Dnipro.

Darijo Srna enters this matchup as the record holder for minutes played in the league, with 1,867 this season; he is followed by Alex Teixeira, then the home side's Mbokani, while Eduardo stands as one of the top scorers with 7, trailing behind Mbokani (13), Luiz Adriano (11), and Andriy Yarmolenko (10).

- We didn't take advantage of their slip-up against Vorskla, so hopefully things will be better today. I am hoping to start from the first minute - concluded Vukojević, who may once again face his old friend Eduardo.

Mircea Lucescu, the Shakhtar manager, is suggesting that the end of his career might be near; if the storm of war over Eastern Ukraine doesn't subside, it isn't impossible that things could settle as early as this summer. Although there is interest from various clubs, he likely wouldn't remain without offers...

Personally, I tend to believe that the Shakhtar players are both more capable and more motivated to win in "traitorous" Kyiv, where the illegally established regime threatens the freedom and right to political self-determination of the eastern regions of Ukraine, so for today, I am playing:



19:00 Kyiv vs Shakhtar Donetsk 2 @ 2.35 (HL) (0:2)

Good luck!

FC Barcelona vs Real Madrid in the cup—definitely the most exciting matchup on the schedule today.
I’m expecting plenty of goals; Real tends to score big but leaves the door open at the other end, while Barcelona has been riding a bit of an emotional rollercoaster lately...

Over 3.5 goals @ 2.4

Completed

SS Philadelphia Eagles vs Los Angeles Lakers @ 2 1.80 (4:1)
SS Portland Timbers vs Los Angeles FC @ 2 2.00 (0:3)
SS Sesvete vs Chicago @ x2 1.30 (1:1)

Total odds: 4.6800
Stake: 4/5

The Philadelphia Eagles are sitting at the bottom, but they did manage a win against Pula recently. That said, I wouldn't expect the Los Angeles Lakers to fall behind after their narrow 1-0 victory over Portland. Even though the Eagles are desperate for points, I’m not writing off the Lakers; they aren't exactly known for handing out easy wins.
Regarding the Portland match, given how they lost to the Lakers and how dominant Los Angeles FC was against Rijeka, I don't see it being an issue for the favorites to pick up a win today. Even if they haven't performed well in San Francisco lately, Los Angeles FC is simply a much higher-caliber squad.
The odds on the last one might seem a bit low—2.20 for Chicago is actually quite reasonable—but Chicago should be fine. They’ve been playing incredibly well in the second division and have definitely earned their promotion to Major League Soccer. If a struggling Inter Milan can handle a 2-0 loss to Sesvete, then Chicago, who is fighting to secure their spot in the top flight, should be able to do the same. I’ll take the double chance (x2) just to hedge my bets, in case the local rivalry leads to some sluggish play.

Kyiv vs Shakhtar Donetsk 3+ @ 1.87 (0:2)

Look, Dynamo’s been absolute chaos lately—only one under in their last six matches... meanwhile, Shakhtar isn't just tightening up the defense, they're actually finding the back of the net way more often than before.
Both of these squads are total over machines because their scoring average is consistently sitting at three or more goals per game.
Plus, if you look at the last six times these two have faced off, five of them went over. Five! It's almost a pattern at this point.

But here’s the real kicker, the thing that actually matters today... a draw is basically a death sentence for both sides. If Dynamo drops points, they aren't just losing the title race, they're effectively falling out of the Champions League qualification picture too. The stakes couldn't be higher.

Back when they met in Donetsk earlier this season, Shakhtar walked away with a 3-1 win.
Over🙂

US, Major League Soccer
Suduva vs Dainava Alytus
Dainava fails to score @2.1 (5:0)

Dainava hasn't found the back of the net in their last 7 matches http://www.betexplorer.com/soccer/li...ytus/Uml8ZXgU/

Their goal differential is absolute trash, so I’m hoping they stay scoreless here too

Everton vs Crystal Palace today... odds look low, should be higher, but I’m calling an Everton win, maybe 1-0🤷. Also expecting an under here, probably gonna play it live...

City needs to hunt down Sunderland. They're struggling at home and I think they'll wreck them after that slip-up against Liverpool. People forget they're still right in the mix—practically only one point behind Pool with two games in hand...

Bayern... nothing to say there.

El Clasico is basically BTS, but I'm going over 2.5 goals this time. Hard to see this ending 1-1...

Lokomotiva vs San Diego (16.04. 19:00) 1@1,80 (3:2)
Lokomotiva/over 2.5 - San Diego (16.04. 19:00) yes@2,00
Lokomotiva/over - San Diego (16.04. 19:00) yes@1,65-Both sides are currently stuck in a rather tedious winless drought (if we set aside Lokomotiva's recent victory over Dragovoljac), and ever since the rumors started swirling regarding the relationship between Dinamo and Lokomotiva, the Lokos have looked increasingly sluggish. While Lokomotiva is arguably the superior side on paper—being essentially Dinamo's developmental squad—they have a grueling stretch ahead against Hajduk and Dinamo. I find it hard to believe that Dinamo, Ivković, or Mamić would allow them to slide further down the table with consecutive losses. San Diego presents the perfect opportunity here; they are exactly the kind of opponent needed to break this losing streak. Looking at their recent head-to-head history, goals seem to be a constant, so I’m leaning toward over 2.5 goals.
San Diego 2 - 4 Lokomotiva
Lokomotiva 2 - 1 San Diego
San Diego 1 - 2 Lokomotiva
San Diego 1 - 1 Lokomotiva
San Diego 2 - 2 Lokomotiva

NK Split-Dinamo Chicago (16.04. 19:00) 2@2,00 (0:3)
NKSplit/Dinamo/no - NKSplit (16.04. 19:00) no@2,50-After that performance against Rijeka, Dinamo looked like a completely different beast, and frankly, I don't see much Split can offer them here. Coach Matić has openly admitted he's struggling to find his clinical edge up front, especially with Mate Bilić being somewhat out of sorts lately; it seems an Actor is the one doing all the heavy lifting for them. Historically, these matchups tend to be low-scoring, often leaving one side staring at a clean sheet. Mamić will undoubtedly be looking for some retribution after losing their last encounter. Plus, with Zdravkec coming out to watch, I suspect the Dinamo players will be eager to show off their dominance for "Dad," all while playing out that classic rivalry between the cities.

Everton-Crystal Palace (16.04. 20:45) 1@1,40 (2:3)-I suspect the odds are skewed this way because Everton is dealing with a significant injury list, but even a depleted squad views this as a non-negotiable win. They are chasing an LP spot, and with Arsenal sitting just a point ahead with a game in hand, the pressure is mounting. Their upcoming schedule looks significantly more punishing than Arsenal's, making these points absolutely vital. That said, you can't ignore Everton's current momentum; they've been on a tear with six straight wins.

EA Guingamp-Monaco (16.04. 21:00) 2@2,00 (1:1)-I generally shy away from betting on French sides, particularly in cup competitions, but there seems to be genuine value here. Monaco is essentially trying to salvage what's left of their season, especially since Rennes is the other finalist—a team that barely scraped through the round of 16 after fielding a rotated lineup, only to turn up the intensity in the quarterfinals with a 6-0 thrashing of Lens. Guingamp hasn't been in great shape, languishing in the relegation zone and dropping four of their last five matches.

Barcelona(under 7.5 cards)-Real Madrid (16.04. 21:30) under@1,80 (5)-The line feels a bit excessive to me. We all know El Clasico can get heated—there's plenty of theatrics and occasional shoving—but 7.5 seems high. Both sides are missing key figures like Pique and Ronaldo, which already accounts for two fewer yellow cards. In their last five outings, I think only once did we see more than seven yellows. I'm inclined to believe they won't reach that threshold today, though I certainly hope they don't need to.

Man. City - Sunderland h0:2 1 (2,00 SS)

After that loss to Liverpool, City can't afford even a single slip-up if they want to stay in the hunt for the title. On the other hand, Sunderland is sitting dead last. Given their current form and a brutal schedule ahead, they’re basically a lock for relegation to the Championship. They just got hammered 5-1 away against a mediocre Tottenham side, so I'm expecting a dominant win from an offensive powerhouse like City—probably by three goals or more.

Friday 4:00 PM

conference

Birmingham City 1 @ 2.10 (3:2)

Birmingham City is fighting for their lives right now—just hovering near the relegation zone along with a few others. On the flip side, Salisbury is sitting pretty right in the middle of the pack. With only three games left on the schedule, they’ve basically locked themselves in; they aren't making the playoffs, but they aren't going down either!

Birmingham City 2 @ 2.40 (1:0)

Same deal here—Birmingham City is scraping by just to stay up, while Tamworth is officially done. They're definitely headed down, especially since their recent form has been absolutely brutal... I mean, eight losses and one draw in their last nine matches? Yikes!

Seattle Sounders FC vs Real Salt Lake - BTTS (Both Teams to Score) @ 1.92 (5:0)

So, we're three matches in, and the Seattle Sounders FC are sitting down at tenth in the standings, getting ready to welcome a Real Salt Lake side that’s been looking pretty sharp lately.
The thing is—and this is where it gets interesting—the home team is feeling a ton of pressure today. Playing in front of their own fans always adds that extra layer of "we have to win," you know?
Honestly, after that rough 0-3 loss to the LA Galaxy earlier this season at home, a win against Real Salt Lake feels almost mandatory just to get things back on track...
Now, look—nobody is disputing that they have the talent to actually win the Major League Soccer title, but man, Real Salt Lake has come out of the gate swinging! They've had three straight wins with Disney-level magic, and more importantly for our bet, they've been putting up goals.
I don't have a single doubt that the Sounders will find the back of the net at least once, if not more... but the real question is whether Real Salt Lake can find their way past the defense to score one themselves.
The Sounders' match against Chicago Fire FC last week was actually decent in the first half, but oh boy, the second half? Total disaster. People were already starting to chirp about the coaching and the general flow of play... it was a mess.
And that's exactly where I see an opening for Real Salt Lake. They seem like such a cohesive unit right now—they play with so much freedom, and that's clearly paying off. They've been dropping two goals per game so far, while the Sounders' defense still looks like it's trying to figure out where everyone is supposed to stand. Those hungry strikers on the visiting side? They'll definitely find a way through.
The visitors are all about that offensive firepower, and since the Sounders absolutely have to push forward to stay relevant, I think that leaves the door wide open for Real Salt Lake to strike.

COLUMBUS CREW - PORTLAND TIMBERS............ 2 2.90 (1:1)

Man, I just cannot get over these odds!
Do the Vegas oddsmakers seriously think Columbus Crew actually has a fighting chance to avoid relegation? They've got them at 2.35... what a joke.
We're talking about a ten-point gap between safety and where they’re sitting right now—plus another seven points if you're looking at those playoff spots—but there are only 12 points left up for grabs in the whole season!!!
And look, they're hosting FC Cincinnati next, then they've got road trips to Indianapolis and New York City—teams that are absolutely fighting for their lives just to stay in the league. I mean, come on... even their own goalkeeper basically admitted it was game over after seeing that last result from Philadelphia. He looked totally defeated!
Portland Timbers are playing some solid soccer lately... if they manage to take down a bottom-feeder like Columbus, they'll be sitting just three points behind a spot that keeps their Major League Soccer dreams alive.
The Timbers did take a brutal hit last match, losing to LA Galaxy in the 97th minute—talk about a gut punch!—but you can't afford to let that sink in when you're in the home stretch.
When you look at the motivation on both sides... honestly, given the massive gap in talent, Portland should walk away with this one easily. I mean, just two weeks ago they went out and crushed San Jose on their own turf while sitting 7th in the standings. Why would anything be different against a Columbus squad that's already written off?

Got some handicaps here, maybe a few might hit

US lower leagues, division 3 West
Orlando City SC-FC Djursland (h1:0) 2@1.55 (5:2)

Odds look a bit low, I guess, but Djursland is looking pretty rough lately
http://www.betexplorer.com/soccer/de...land/G8dNSz3A/

US second tier:
Marienlyst-Lyngby BK (h1:0) 2 @ 2.15 (0:3)

Lyngby had two solid wins this season, like 4-0 and 3-1. Marienlyst? Just keeps struggling like they did early on.
http://www.betexplorer.com/soccer/de...ngby/UmxfNKli/

US third tier, group 2
Tudelano-Pena (h0:1) @ 1.65 (1:1)
Pena's away record is 1-1-15. They beat Tudelano once this season, but I doubt they can pull it off again.http://www.betexplorer.com/soccer/sp...pena/rHqrpfn6/

US third tier, group 1
San Jose Earthquakes-SD Noj (h0:1) @ 1.9 (2:0)
Noj is 1-6-9 on the road. San Jose desperately needs the win to stay in the league, while Noj basically has zero chance at staying up anymore.

Sunday
MLS Betting Odds (3:0)

Club León hasn't tasted a win in the MLS Playoffs for six straight games—and honestly, four of those were straight-up losses. It’s been a disaster...
They've got the knockout stages of the CONCACAF Champions Cup hanging over them, too. They played LA Galaxy last night and ended in a 2:2 draw, then they've got this league match against Houston Dynamo this Sunday, followed by the return leg in Denver against LA Galaxy on April 23rd, and just three days after that—April 26th—they're heading out to face San Diego FC...

The manager, Pep Guardiola, basically already admitted he's prioritizing the MLS Cup and that CONCACAF matchup against LA Galaxy. He’s planning to rest the big names—specifically because of that high-altitude trip to Denver—so they aren't totally gassed for the second leg.
There are only two rounds left in the MLS Playoffs, and Houston Dynamo is definitely going to be hunting for a spot. They’ve got a legitimate shot at grabbing that 8th seed if they play right. Meanwhile, Club León has to face both Houston Dynamo and San Diego FC—two teams that are sitting much closer to the playoffs and, frankly, have way better odds than León does right now.
It's not like Houston Dynamo is playing like gods either; they absolutely choked last round, giving up a late goal while they actually had the man advantage... This is really their last stand if they want to sniff the playoffs.
Whatever, most likely we're looking at another draw here🤷, but taking the Asian handicap on the more ambitious visitors feels right. Facing a makeshift, rotated Club León lineup? The away side is much closer to walking away with the points...

I suppose you'd all agree that it would be more practical and easier to follow if the match date was listed right next to the game itself.

@j_gers
It says right above Sunday

Saturday

Braunschweig-Bayern Munich -1 2 1,65 (0:2)

Bayern is going all out in this one—Pep Guardiola basically signaled he isn't sitting anyone star players, kind of like how they handle cup games... he just wants them in peak, absolutely lethal form before they have to face Real Madrid.
The home side is absolutely gutted without Bicakcic, who’s easily their best defender, and they're also missing Kumbele, their top scorer.
As for Bayern, they're dealing with some serious holes:
Manuel Neuer, David Alaba, Jerome Boateng, Rafinha, Thiago Alcantara, and Toni Kroos.

Looking back at their previous matchups against Braunschweig, Bayern has totally dominated them. They cruised to a 2-0 win earlier this season in Munich, and if you go even further back to that 2011 cup game in Braunschweig, it was a 0-3 blowout.
I'm calling another tight win for Bayern, probably by a 2 or 3 goal margin... because honestly, no matter how hard the home team fights to stay alive, they're just picking the absolute worst, toughest opponent possible to try and pull it off.🤷
Just two days ago, Bayern absolutely dismantled their cup opponent with a 5-1 thrashing.

Joinville-Portuguesa U-17 1 1.94

The Portuguesa crew—Willian Magrão, Bryan, Rondinelli, Caio Manch—they were the last ones to walk out.
There were probably another 3 or 4 guys ahead of them too.
They just got knocked out of the cup by some weak-ass Potiguar Mossoró side, losing 1-0.
The away team actually tried to get this match postponed, but the home team wouldn't budge, and neither would the league officials.😕
Portuguesa is caught up in some massive legal mess right now😕, and honestly, nobody even knows which league they’ll be playing in next—Major League Soccer or the lower division.🤣
It's not even 100% certain if this game is even happening at all...
http://globoesporte.globo.com/futebo...a-serie-b.html

That said, Joinville is looking pretty solid here and is the clear favorite with odds at 1.94.
I'm going all in tonight.
With the way things are looking, those odds on the home side are definitely worth a shot...

Saturday 6:30 PM
Hamburger SV vs. Wolfsburg
Predicting a 1:1 draw @ 7.0 odds (current score 1:3)

In this matchup, the situation is pretty transparent for everyone involved. You've got the home side fighting tooth and nail just to stay in the top flight, while the visitors are chasing a spot in the Champions League. I’m going to put down a tiny stake on this one—just a little something—mostly because I can't stop thinking about it and it's driving me a bit crazy. It feels like there's a certain "tradition" brewing between these two clubs. If you look at their last five meetings, four of them ended in an exact 1:1 deadlock. It’s almost like they have a pattern etched into the grass.
Good luck to everyone, and I hope you all have a wonderful holiday season!

Sent from my Nokia 3310

Norwich City vs. Liverpool FC +3 (2.05 HL) (2:3)

There shouldn't be much math involved in this one. After their rivals kept tripping over their own feet, Liverpool has a golden chance to pull even further ahead in the standings. On the other side, Norwich is staring down the relegation zone; they’ve dropped three straight games without finding the back of the net, but I wouldn't count them out. They'll fight tooth and nail to play spoiler against the favorites, just like Sunderland AFC did recently. Matches involving Liverpool are usually high-scoring affairs—they play aggressive, attacking football whether they're at home or on the road, and most importantly, they're hitting their stride right now.

Falkenbergs-Elfsborg Falkenbergs scoring at 1.56 (2:3)

Since back in June 2011, they've played 45 home games in official league play—and get this—they’ve managed to find the back of the net in every single one of them... at least once. 🙂

8 matches... I didn't even count the cup ties or friendlies, but even then, they only failed to score in one lone cup match.

They've had two home games so far this season—one win, one loss—and they scored in both... so yeah, I'm fully expecting them to pull it off again and grab at least one goal.