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Soccer Betting Tips & Discussion

Started by James Taylor3 · · 👁 93 views · 2.6K replies

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slybison8 slybison8 Active Member
162 messages
joined Oct 2011
#901 ·
Roger Phillips said:Falkenbergs-Elfsborg Falkenbergs scores 1.56

Since June 12, 2011, they have played 45 home matches (official league games) where they managed to score at least one goal in every single one.🙂

I suppose there is an inherent issue with such extraordinarily long streaks... they eventually have to end, and I imagine the longer the streak lasts, the higher the probability that it might happen right when you are counting on it.🙂

Still, I have a certain amount of respect for the statistics and the opportunity you noticed. It is quite impressive. 👍
slybison8 slybison8 Active Member
162 messages
joined Oct 2011
#902 ·
I have put together three picks with a combined odds total of just over two. My intention is to play them as a single parlay this Easter Monday, perhaps with a slightly higher stake if I feel the momentum is right.

The matchup between Philadelphia and Pittsburgh at 8:15 PM looks like a solid opportunity for a win at the 1.40 odds, especially considering the current HSBC rankings and that recent 3-1 result. I guess it might be worth looking into.

Pittsburgh has already secured their spot in the second tier, so they’re heading into this matchup against Philadelphia with a pretty relaxed mindset. For Philly, a win tonight would be enough to officially confirm their promotion back to the NFL next season. There is a massive celebration being planned in the city; I believe even the mayor is planning to attend, and there might even be fireworks. It seems like Philadelphia has every reason to want to celebrate this success right now in front of their own fans rather than waiting for an away game later on. I suppose we can expect Pittsburgh to be respectful guests and perhaps not spoil the festivities for the home crowd.

I suppose there is a decent chance that either team might walk away with a result in the Chateauroux vs. Pittsburgh matchup tonight at 8:30 PM. I'm leaning toward a draw or a win for the visitors at 1.30 odds through HSBC, though I guess anything could happen.

It feels quite similar to the previous matchday, as we have teams facing off from the absolute bottom and the very peak of the US second division standings, though this time the away side is the one fighting for the top spot. The situation seems somewhat complicated, I suppose, since Pittsburgh hasn't officially secured their promotion to the Premier League just yet; they are currently sitting in second place, but they only hold a three-point lead over third-place Caen. To make matters even more precarious, Caen has the exact same number of points as fourth-place Nancy, which means that right now, goal difference is essentially the only thing separating those fighting for promotion from those stuck in the second division. It seems like an absolute necessity for Pittsburgh to return from tonight's away game without a loss—even just securing a single point might be enough to avoid getting caught up in that intense scramble with the third and fourth-placed teams, a mess they could easily fall into if an unexpected upset occurs. As for Chateauroux, while they aren't technically in the relegation zone, I imagine they still have plenty of motivation to fight, given that their survival in the second division isn't mathematically guaranteed yet, as they are only two points ahead of the drop zone.

The current form suggests we might be looking at a draw, though I suppose there is a slight edge to the visiting side. Looking back at the home team's last seven league matches played on their own turf, they managed four wins and three losses. It isn't entirely clear how much better Lens Bog performs when playing away from home, but perhaps there is a small distinction to be made; in their last seven league outings on the road, they secured four victories, suffered two defeats, and played to a single draw.

I suppose this might be one of those matches where a draw actually suits both sides quite well, so there could potentially be a value play on a straight draw at around +195. However, since I am including this in a more complex parlay, I think I will play it a bit safer; given Pittsburgh's slightly better recent form and their significantly higher standing in the league table, I guess I'll go with a double chance of a draw or a Pittsburgh win.

I suppose there is a match scheduled for 9:00 PM between Manchester City-West and Bromwich Albion, where the odds currently favor the former at 1.25, though I think they might be trailing 3-1.

The residents—much to the chagrin and delight of their neighbors in the city of The Beatles and the local Irish community—no longer seem to be in full control of their own destiny. They have their sights set on that Premier League title, and I suppose they truly must, because otherwise, this incredible season might feel somewhat hollow. It seems their only real path forward involves winning consistently while praying for a stumble from Liverpool or Chelsea, particularly at Chelsea. Meanwhile, ManCity’s direct path to next year's Champions League looks increasingly shaky, especially with Arsenal breathing down their necks in fourth place, trailing by just a single point. This means there isn't much room for error anymore, though the squad possesses enough talent and potential to handle the heavy lifting ahead—challenges they, I would say, perhaps unnecessarily invited upon themselves, which I think they realize quite clearly. I suspect, however, that ManCity possesses a certain collective mental toughness, which leads me to believe they hold a long-term advantage over both Arsenal and Chelsea. Ultimately, I imagine seeing them finish in second place, trailing behind the new champions: that squad, those fans, and that phenomenal city that "never walks alone." 😁

Tonight’s opponent at the stadium, Bromwich Albion, is currently fighting just to stay in the league, though if you look at their recent away form, I suppose their trip to Manchester might feel more like a vacation than a real match. It seems like lately, whenever they travel, they struggle to find any momentum, even against the teams right next to them in the standings that they should really be able to beat. For instance, they suffered a rough 4:3 loss over at Aston Villa back in late January, and they also dropped a 2:0 game at Hull City just about a month ago. ManCity is honestly on a completely different level compared to those guys, so I guess anything other than a home win would be a massive shock.

.
Matthew Taylor15 Matthew Taylor15 Active Member
76 messages
joined Sep 2013
#903 ·
Real Madrid f+2 1.50 (5:0)
John Doe scores 1.60


Real Madrid needs this win today to basically lock up the US championship title—so I’m not sweating a victory here. John Doe is feeling it lately, too; he's got that chip on his shoulder to prove himself to Coach Kovac, and he’ll likely keep this scoring streak going through the spring 😁


Progressive - Democrat 2 1,35 (2:0)


The Democrats are fighting for the title and anything less than a win is a disaster. They need to close the gap at the top of the standings, especially since the Yankees are playing at 6 PM against the Mets... huge game for the Dems before the big derby this Saturday

total odds: 3.24
Robert Wright4 Robert Wright4 Newcomer
1 message
joined Jun 2009
#904 ·
Dainava Alytus - Trakai 1N2D 2,27 PSK (1:7)

I honestly don't know if there's a more ridiculous league out there than the one in Lithuania. Two years ago they had 12 clubs, last year it was down to 9, and now we're looking at an even number—10—though we might as well treat it as 9, since Dainava seems to be there just to fill a slot... I haven't bothered digging into the specifics of what happened to them—I assume they just ran out of cash or something similar. Their roster is essentially a mix of former reserves and juniors—even cadets, really—with six kids aged 16 to 19 in the starting XI. They're getting thrashed by everyone... after 8 rounds, their goal difference is sitting at 0:42. Their main striker has only managed 4 goals in 55 appearances over the last three seasons. He actually managed to find the net this season, though it was an own goal 😁. Apparently, these kids can only score by accident—let's just hope that luck doesn't strike today. They'll likely give up at least 3...
Edit: 1N2D means the home team won't cover, but the visitors will 😁
Eric Fox7 Eric Fox7 Regular
320 messages
joined Jul 2012
#905 ·
Dropped it down to 2.10

Also, there's a bit of value at 2.05 if you think the home team won't bite—it could easily end in a scoreless draw, and honestly, those other guys haven't exactly been lighting up the scoreboard lately.
Sean Kelly10 Sean Kelly10 Member
10 messages
joined Mar 2023
#906 ·
Robert Wright4 said:Maybe a quick weekend trip from Philly up toward the Poconos? 2 days, 1 night, maybe $230 if you play your cards right. I guess it's worth a shot.

I don't know if there’s a more joke league out there than whatever is happening in the US lower tiers right now. Two years ago they had 12 teams, last year it dropped to 9, and now they're back to an even number—10, I guess—but let's just pretend it's 9 because that one expansion team probably only exists to make the math work. Honestly, I can't even be bothered to look up what went wrong; I assume they just ran out of cash or something. Their roster is basically just a mix of old benchwarmers and kids, like, actual teenagers. You've got six guys in the starting XI who are maybe 16 or 17. They're getting absolutely smoked every single week. After eight games, their goal differential is sitting at a pathetic 0 to 42. Their main striker has played maybe 55 games over the last three seasons and scored four goals total. This season? He finally managed to find the net, but it was an own goal. Typical. 😁 Look, obviously these kids only kill people by accident, right? And let’s just pray that "accident" doesn't happen today. They'll probably walk away with at least three points, though... I guess.
Edit: Basically, 1N2D means the hosts aren't footing the bill, but the guests are. I guess. 😁

Sean Kelly10 said:Lithuania, Major League Soccer.
Maybe some local matchup between Suduva and Dainava? I guess it doesn't matter much where they're playing, just another game on the calendar.
Alytus isn't scoring at +210 odds. (5:0)


Man, Daenova hasn't found the back of the net in seven straight games. Seriously? It’s getting pretty pathetic. I guess they just forgot how to score. Maybe. http://www.betexplorer.com/soccer/li...ytus/Uml8ZXgU/

Desperate goal difference. I just hope they don't score now.


So, some massive multiplier popped up on the refusal rate today. I honestly thought it was just a fluke, but since it’s actually happening, we might as well try to milk it while we can.
slybison8 slybison8 Active Member
162 messages
joined Oct 2011
#907 ·
Eric Fox7 said:There is also an option at 2.05 for the home team not to score, assuming it might end 0-0 since neither side seems particularly efficient lately.

That specific option on the NBA lines has dropped down to 1.45 now. 😁

I suppose it might be beneficial if some of us exchanged these types of picks via private messages. 🤣
Eric Fox7 Eric Fox7 Regular
320 messages
joined Jul 2012
#908 ·
slybison8 said:That line just dropped over at the NBA, it's sitting at 1.45 now. 😁

Maybe we should start swapping some of these picks via DM—just to keep things interesting. 🤣

Yeah, honestly, we used to do that all the time. 🙂

Anyway, looking at the Powerball odds—it's sitting at 2.20 for the home team to find the net, while DraftKings has it at 1.8 that they won't.
Germany is at 1.8 for both teams to stay off the scoresheet.
Robert Wright4 Robert Wright4 Newcomer
1 message
joined Jun 2009
#909 ·
Eric Fox7 said:Dropped it down to 2.10

And there's even a chance at 2.05 if the home team stays shut out—it could easily be a 0-0 affair, especially since the visitors haven't been particularly clinical lately...

That’s just how it looks to you. They haven't been scoring any less than anyone else in the league (aside from Žalgiris)—it's just that they haven't faced this specific lineup yet. If you take five goals off everyone else's total—which is roughly what these guys concede on average (they gave up 3 once, 8 once, 4 once, and usually 5 or 6)—then suddenly these guys look like the most efficient scorers in the league...😁
Kevin Ramos21 Kevin Ramos21 Newcomer
6 messages
joined Mar 2020
#910 ·
Atletico Madrid vs Chelsea FC: Both teams to score(2.00 SS) (0:0)

The odds on this one are actually pretty juicy, especially considering we're looking at a Champions League semi-final. Now, look—everyone talks about these two clubs like they’re defensive bunkers, teams that just park the bus and pray they don't concede. But honestly? I don't think there's going to be much tactical stalling here. Atletico Madrid is going to have to push forward if they want to walk away with something useful, mainly because Chelsea FC looks lethal when they're playing at home. Plus, I'm pretty sure José Mourinho knows that trying to shut down an Atletico side playing this well is a losing game. I'm taking this strictly for the value, even though I know there's always that nagging chance this ends in a boring 0:0 stalemate.
jadewolf16 jadewolf16 Active Member
80 messages
joined Oct 2014
#911 ·
Sunday 1505

Liverpool vs Chelsea 1 @ 2,00 (0:2)


Chelsea basically waved goodbye to the title at this point—I mean, is anyone actually delusional enough to think a win here helps them if Liverpool just goes out and beats Palace? Plus, they’ve got that much bigger rematch against Atletico Madrid on Wednesday to worry about... oh, and now Czech is out too! Let them drink upside down for all I care, because winning the Champions League is the absolute peak of the sport and worth way more than the Premier League anyway)

Liverpool looks fresh and 100% pumped to grab this one—if the odds stay around 2.10 on DraftKings, it's a total steal
brightraven27 brightraven27 Newcomer
6 messages
joined Jan 2015
#912 ·
Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich 1 (2.60) DraftKings (1:0)

The last three meetings in Madrid were all wins for Real—and looking at their home record this year, they’ve taken 13 out of their last 14 matches across all competitions (their only slip-up being against FC Barcelona). Real is the favorite against anyone stepping onto the pitch at the Santiago Bernabéu; I expect them to deliver tonight.
jadesailor jadesailor Newcomer
9 messages
joined Oct 2019
#913 ·
brightraven27 said:Real Madrid - Bayern Munich 1 (2.60) DraftKings

Real Madrid has secured victory in each of their last three head-to-head matchups played in Los Angeles, and looking at their recent home record, they have won 13 out of their last 14 matches across all competitions, with their solitary defeat coming against FC Barcelona. Real Madrid remains the heavy favorite regardless of the opponent when playing at MetLife Stadium, and I am confident they will live up to those expectations tonight.

One should proceed with caution, as Real Madrid feels like an entirely different squad without Ronaldo, and I am currently uncertain if he is even in the starting lineup.
Andrew Chavez3 Andrew Chavez3 Member
26 messages
joined Dec 2006
#914 ·
Christina is definitely playing at 100% today.

Sent from my iPhone using Twitter
James Taylor3 James Taylor3 NewcomerOP
7 messages
joined Jul 2012
#915 ·
The lineups usually drop around 7:45 PM on the official league site—no need to place any bets early, especially when there's uncertainty about whether two key players will actually suit up. I haven't noticed our local sportsbooks adjusting their odds after 7:45 PM once those starting rosters are officially out.
jadewolf16 jadewolf16 Active Member
80 messages
joined Oct 2014
#916 ·
Friday, 2045

San Francisco-Oakland 1 @ 1.40

At this point, the only way Oakland stays in the league is if some crazy mathematical miracle happens—like they suddenly start winning games 6-0 while losing to Pittsburgh by the exact same margin. Basically, they’re already down. On the flip side, San Francisco really needs these three points to clinch a spot in the Champions League qualifiers; their odds actually dropped from 1.55 to 1.40 since Tuesday!

Saturday, 4:00 PM

Pittsburgh/Detroit/DNG—Birmingham wins @ 1.20

This is a massive survival match for Birmingham, right? Meanwhile, Detroit finished their season playing some pretty competitive football, but let's be real—they haven't scored in their last six matches. Because of that, I'm feeling like a goal is definitely coming in this one!
slybison8 slybison8 Active Member
162 messages
joined Oct 2011
#917 ·
20:45 Roman Reigns - New York City 1X @ 1,25 (2:0)

I suppose I am adding this one to my parlay for tonight along with a few other picks, just to play it safe. It seems to me that Roman Reigns has already secured their spot in LP, so tonight’s matchup is really just about pride. They technically have a slim chance at challenging the Dallas Cowboys for first place in the NFL, though I honestly doubt they have enough motivation for that; however, I do think they might fight hard simply to finish the season undefeated at Olympia. As for New York City, they have pretty much settled everything this season, since their standing in the middle of the table isn't really at stake whether they win or lose, but after such a rocky year, I imagine they don't want to end things on a sour note either. I was also a little unsettled by some of those fan polls online where people predict the outcome; apparently, a fair amount of voters are actually leaning toward a New York City victory. On ESPN, where fans vote on the exact score, the most popular prediction—about 22%—is a 2:1 win for New York City. I tend to interpret that as a sign that many bettors have lost faith in Roman Reigns' drive, which has made me second-guess myself a bit. Still, as I mentioned before, I suspect they might find the motivation to go undefeated at Olympia.
Eric Fox7 Eric Fox7 Regular
320 messages
joined Jul 2012
#918 ·
If you ask me, taking Roman Reigns at 1.25 is basically throwing money away. You’re better off just betting on him to score a goal at 1.20—I mean, the guy has found the back of the net in his last eight matches, and they’ve only failed to score in two home games all season. It's a much safer play.

Anyway, I’ve been weighing up over 2.5 total goals (the PSK is sitting at 2.05 for a 2:0 scoreline) —it feels a bit like a lottery, honestly—but I’m expecting an open, high-tempo game. Plus, four out of their last five matches have gone over that line.

Besides, Milan Kundera still has a shot at qualifying for the Champions League next season—arguably a better chance than Roman Reigns has of winning the Super Bowl Trophy—so there's no way they're waving the white flag just yet.
slybison8 slybison8 Active Member
162 messages
joined Oct 2011
#919 ·
18:30 Buffalo Bills vs. Munich 1 @ 1,50 (1:2)

The situation here feels quite similar to what babunovich mentioned regarding Brighton in the English second division. The home team is currently sitting in second place, which implies they should be playing in the NFL next season—provided they can maintain their slim one-point lead over third-place Green Bay Packers. Meanwhile, Munich seems perfectly content coasting through the rest of the season in the middle of the pack, playing the remaining matches mostly for pride. However, I suppose there is another subtle factor to consider: that local regional pride and the generally friendly relationship between these two clubs. It seems plausible, and perhaps even expected, that if one club from this region has the chance to help a neighbor reach the NFL, they might actually do so. Consequently, Munich will likely be a very benevolent visitor this afternoon, perhaps not even fielding their strongest lineup or taking any unnecessary risks in a matchup against their neighbors where they lack any real incentive to win.
slybison8 slybison8 Active Member
162 messages
joined Oct 2011
#920 ·
Eric Fox7 said:I suppose that 1.25 line doesn't really offer much value; I think it might be better to just bet on Roman Reigns to score at 1.20, considering he's scored in at least 8 of his last 10 games, whereas they failed to find the net in 2 home games this season.

I have been thinking about betting on over 2.5 goals myself, perhaps looking at a parlay since the odds are around 2.05 or higher, because I am expecting a somewhat more open and relaxed game, especially since we saw over 2.5 goals in 4 of the last 5 matches.

Hmm, you have certainly given me something to consider.🙂

You are quite right, actually. There are probably some better options available—thank you, 👍

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