Soccer Betting Tips & Discussion

Cruz Azul vs UNAM +0, 2.30 (Score 2:1) (sbobet, pinny)
over 1 first half, 1.98 (1-1) (sbobet)
I'm playing for a UNAM win with a draw insurance—basically a double chance. Honestly, looking at this, it feels almost stupid—the bottom-dwellers facing the top guys, and the bottom team is actually the favorite?
But hey, things work differently in Mexico; actually, in all of North America, the home field advantage is massive. It probably comes down to how these teams approach away games and their general philosophy toward the sport, but that's a whole other rabbit hole...

Anyway, here’s the deal: Cruz is sitting dead last with only 7 points from 8 rounds and a mountain of losses (they've dropped 4 of their last 5), while UNAM is cruising along, winning easily and scoring goals like they haven't seen in years...

What else should you know? The last time UNAM actually beat Azul was back in 2012. But obviously, UNAM hasn't been this dominant in recent memory, and Azul hasn't been this out of it...

Cruz is the bigger name, though I suspect there might be some internal drama going on in the locker room. I'm trying to dig up some extra dirt, but it's tough—the bookies aren't idiots, so they aren't going to offer these kinds of odds given the standings. Everyone can see something's off here...

That said, let's just look at the most basic, most crucial facts about UNAM:
=> they aren't playing in the Copa Libertadores,
=> they were basically knocked out of the cup a week before the end of the group stage
=> they already have 2 away wins out of 4, which is a solid average for Mexico

Look, Cruz won't lose forever, and UNAM won't win every single game either. This isn't a true reflection of Azul's actual quality or reputation... but we all know what it looks like when a big or mid-sized club is just waiting for things to click... happens every season, really...

edit:

Lineups are out:



Looks pretty aggressive offensively, so I'm adding an over on the first half

11/19 ; 2,41

Genoa : Juventus (0-2)
X2 and 2+ @ 1.67
Both squads have been looking pretty rough this season—honestly... But Juventus definitely has the edge in talent here. They pulled off that 1:2 win against Manchester City in the Copa Libertadores, so they shouldn't be losing today, though I’m leaning toward them actually taking the win... Genoa isn't just going to sit back for a 0-0 either, they'll want to find the net. So, at least 2 goals plus a double chance on Juve feels solid...

Charleroi : Anderlecht
X2 and 2+ @ 1.65 (1-1)
Anderlecht is fighting for that 2nd place spot, while the home team is struggling near the bottom with only 7 points from 7 games... Anderlecht is one of those teams that's always in the title hunt. The home side had two 0-0 draws lately at home, which isn't really their style... Expecting at least 2 goals and Anderlecht to stay unbeaten...

Gothenburg : Hammarby
1 and 2+ @ 1.75 (1-0)
The home team is chasing the title, while the visitors are hovering near the relegation zone... Usually, I don't like betting against teams fighting to stay up, but I can't pass on this one. The home side has an insane goal difference of 40:13. Their last three home games were blowouts—6:0, 4:0, and 3:0—all in August, so they are absolutely peaking (plus they've won 3 straight away)... Meanwhile, Hammarby has lost their last three trips to Gothenburg by handicap...

1.64 ; 16/20

Looking at the matchup between Heist and Antwerp... I'm leaning toward an Antwerp win here at 1.60. It feels like a solid pick for a single. What do you guys think about the odds on this one? Just my two cents.

The visitors are on an absolute tear right now—I mean, let's be honest, their only away match ended in a win—but I just don't see Heist being much of a hurdle for them. Much like how Cercle B. handled things yesterday, I think we're looking at Antwerp solidifying their spot right at the very top of the table. Can they actually keep this momentum going? It feels like they're cruising toward the summit.

Looking at the matchup between Etienne and Nantes... I'm leaning toward a home win here, probably sitting around 1.75. It feels like a solid play if you're looking at the current momentum. What do you guys think? Is the home team going to pull this one off comfortably? My gut says a 2-0 result is on the cards.

The home team has been looking pretty solid this year. Honestly, if there’s any kind of issue at all, it might just be their schedule getting crowded with the Europa League. On the flip side, you look at Nantes and they’ve had a rough start—three losses in a row now. They don't exactly look like the type of squad that’s going to cause any trouble for St. Etienne. Plus, I have a feeling tradition is going to play a part here, and that definitely favors the home team.

Carpi vs Fiorentina—looking at over 2.5 goals here at 2.00. Seems like a solid play, right? Just a little something to keep an eye on. PSK (0-1).

Man, I still can't help but think about that Carpi match from last weekend. They really threw a wrench in things for Palermo, didn't they? It was such a mess, and honestly, a huge chunk of us got caught in the crossfire too. Just one of those games that stays with you, I guess.
It looks like this could be a great opportunity for Fiorentina to snag their first away win of the season, right? But honestly, I’m being a bit cautious here. Every single time the home team steps on the pitch lately, they've managed to find the back of the net at least once. It's hard to bet against that kind of consistency.
Since Fiorentina tends to play such an open, attacking style of football, I'm expecting at least three goals in this one. Who knows? It feels like there's going to be plenty of action.
I decided to go with over 2.5 goals instead. For some reason, PSK seems to value that outcome at 2.00, while they've got the 3+ option sitting at 1.90. Makes sense if you think about it, right? 🤔

Excelsior vs. Ajax... looking at those odds, Ajax at 1.55 seems like a solid play, doesn't it? I'm eyeing a pre-match bet here. Given the current setup, I'm leaning toward an Away win. What do you guys think?

Tradition, current league standing, pure squad depth—honestly, everything points to Ajax walking away with this one pretty easily. Wouldn't it be great to see them pull ahead just a little bit from PSV and Feyenoord in the standings? It feels like the right moment for them to make a move.

Thinking about the matchup between IFK Luleå and BK Forward... looking at those odds, a BK Forward double chance at 1.64 seems like a solid play to me. It’s one of those games where you just have to weigh the momentum. What do you guys think? I'm leaning toward the visitors getting at least a draw here. Current score sits at 1-0.

IFK Luleå is a decent home team, but let's be honest—they’ve been all over the place lately. Their form is just so inconsistent. On the other hand, you've got BK Forward coming in with this really nice unbeaten streak going. I honestly think that run should continue. Even if it isn't strictly about their current momentum, BK Forward is just one of those tricky teams that knows exactly how to pull off an upset against top-tier sides in the Cup. Who knows? They definitely have that knack for it.

8/15 ; 1,61

Nicholas Rogers83 said:Carpi vs Fiorentina — over 2.5 goals

Love the full breakdown for this one—I’d probably just take the double chance on the away side and the over... maybe at 1.75 on the books...

Gonna try something a little different this time:

Colombia 2nd Division
Depor vs Valledupar @ 2.00 (1-0)
Real Santander vs Barranquilla @ 2.00 (0-0)
U. Magdalena vs América de Cali @ 2.00 (2-1)
All three matches to go Over 1.5 goals in the 1st half
@ 8.09

Here’s the logic... This is basically a goal-scoring window for the Colombian second division. It doesn't happen every single time, obviously, but when the stars align—like when the moon phases and certain biological cycles sync up perfectly—and you get three teams currently in a scoring drought all scheduled for that traditionally high-scoring Sunday night slot at 10 PM...

That’s when you start looking for those "out of the box" plays. Like, for example, expecting two goals in the first half for all three of these games.

I actually thought about parlaying this whole thing together for an Over 1.5 first-half total—that would’ve been a massive odd of around 30 (!!) —but Bet365 isn't offering that specific combo right now, and honestly, this little play here has some pretty decent value too...

So I'm playing the Over 0.5 goals in the 1st half for each , and the odds should be around 2.90 (maybe even higher) once Bet365 puts these matches into their live betting menu... once they do, you'll be able to grab the Over 0.5 for each individual game.

11/21 ; 2.41

13:00 Trabzon vs Tarsus İdman Yurdu 1 @ 1.60 (f+2 @ 2.60) (4-0)

It's the second round of the Turkish Cup—basically a playground for the lower league sides.
We've got a newly promoted second-tier side that’s actually hitting their stride this season, facing off against a struggling third-tier outfit that hasn't managed a single win yet.
Looking back at last year, they were both grinding away in the same third-division group, and Trabzon walked away with two handicap wins.
A few seasons back, Trabzon even made it to the cup group stages—didn't get much further than that, obviously—but hey, they did manage to snag a scalp against a powerhouse like Fenerbahçe back then.
If you ask me, this should be a pretty comfortable stroll for the home team. 🤷

4/5 ; 1.98

Wednesday, Sept 23
Serie A

20:45 Juventus vs Frosinone +2 (1-1)
After a shaky start, Juve has managed two solid results.
That includes a big 1:2 away at Manchester City in the Champions League, followed by a 0:2 win against Genoa in the league.
Tonight provides an ideal opportunity to extend that momentum and signal they are finally out of their slump.
Based on how things have gone so far, Frosinone looks like they might struggle to stay in the top flight.
They’re sitting on zero points after four rounds, so I suspect Juve will handle this routinely with the handicap.

PSK @ 1.50

4/12 ; 1.50

Watch out with Juve, they're missing Khedira, Marchisio, Asamoah, Mandžukić, and Morata today. Honestly, I don't think it's even worth placing a bet when the odds are this pathetic.

I'll tie that into a few more matches.
I'm expecting something like a 2-0.
Frosinone is playing absolute garbage right now.

Good luck to you 😉

Walsall-Chelsea 2 1,40 bet365 (1-4)
Let's kick things off with what looks like a "sure thing." Third-division Walsall has drawn defending champions Chelsea FC in the third round of the cup. The home side currently sits second in their league after eight rounds, but let’s be real—those stats don't mean a damn thing when you're stepping up to face a powerhouse like Chelsea FC. This is actually the first time they've made it to the third round since 2002, which just goes to show they aren't exactly known for pulling off upsets, even against second-tier teams, let alone a top-tier Premier League team.
Chelsea FC was in a total freefall after five league matches with only four points to their name, but things are finally starting to click. They absolutely demolished Maccabi Tel Aviv 4-0 in the Champions League—honestly, it could have been 7-0 if not for Eden Hazard missing a penalty—and then they went out and handled their old rivals Arsenal FC with a 2-0 win in this weekend's match of the week. Given how shaky they looked coming into the season, every single win feels like a relief right now, even against a third-division squad. I have no idea exactly which lineup Chelsea FC will field today, but I'm betting a solid chunk of the starters will be out there from the opening whistle (John Terry and Radamel Falcao are locks). Willian, Diego Costa, and Thibaut Courtois are all out of the rotation for this one.

Grasshoppers-Sion over 2,5 @ 1,69 Marathonbet (2-0)
Over 3 @ 2,15 Pinnacle
About ten days ago, I was calling for the over in the Lucerne and Grasshoppers match, and it ended in a wild 3-3 draw. Now, the betting shops have set almost identical odds for both of these over bets, so I'm jumping back in.
To recap the vital facts: Grasshoppers took over from Tama, who plays an incredibly aggressive, attack-heavy style of football, and the results speak for themselves. We've seen a staggering 48 goals scored in just 9 games this season (that's 5.33 goals per game!!!). These guys charge forward recklessly from the very first minute, and frankly, I don't see any team being able to play a tight, defensive game against them—not even a disciplined Sion. They've hit the over in 7 out of 12 games this season, and in their head-to-head matchups, 4 out of the last 6 have gone over. I highly recommend playing this.

24/48 ; 1,81

Inter Milan - Verona 2 9.00 SS (1-0)

Gonna try to hunt for an upset today... Inter still isn't clicking despite those new signings—it's messy. They scraped a 1-0 win last round, but their second half was absolute garbage. Plus, they’ve got that big derby against Fiorentina coming up this Sunday, so Mancini might just bench a few starters to keep them fresh. Because of that, I'm throwing my money on the visitors to grab two points. 😁

14/30 ; 1.85

stormyharbor13 said:I’m gonna bundle this with a couple more games.
Thinking a 2-0 scoreline is coming.
Frosinone is playing absolute garbage right now.

In that case, you're probably better off hitting a Double Chance at 1.75, or just taking the Over 1.5 at 1.52.🤔

stormyharbor13 said:I’ll tie this into a few more matches.
I’m expecting something like 2-0.
Frosinone is playing absolute garbage right now.

Have you actually watched any of their games lately?
They were arguably the better side against Bologna—just unlucky to lose. Against Roma, they conceded in the 93rd minute despite being equal competitors with several clear chances.
The play is solid enough—they just can't find the back of the net. Given all those absences at Juventus, I wouldn't touch that bet. Definitely no value there.

11:00 SKA Saint Petersburg vs. Kazan @ 3.20 (for the cautious ones, X2 @ 1.60, but if you're feeling reckless, a +1 handicap for Kazan at 6.50) (2-0)

I have to say, these odds caught me off guard—honestly, I think they should’ve been set the other way around (the home win is sitting at @ 2.10)🤔
Sure, we're talking about a cup match here, but with lines like this, it feels worth a shot.
The thing is, SKA is currently playing in the second division and they've been struggling—even though they've picked up a bit of steam over the last couple of rounds, they've only managed 12 points in 12 games. My gut tells me their main focus right now is just staying in the second tier; dropping down to the third division usually spells disaster for a club's ambitions in an American league structure like this—it's a nightmare to climb back up once you fall.
To be fair, Kazan isn't exactly flying high either (just 7 points in 9 games), which makes sense given the toll of competing in the Europa League, but they are starting to find their footing again—they pulled off a win against a very solid Lokomotiva and managed a draw during a tough away trip against Dinamo Chicago. I wouldn't be surprised if they actually start fighting for European spots later in the season.
So, looking at the matchup, a victory for the team that finished fourth last season and made the cup quarterfinals seems pretty likely against a struggling second-division side.

4/8 ; 1.98

Look, if I were you, I’d steer clear of that money. It feels like a total trap to me. Everyone sees exactly what you're seeing—including the guys at the betting shops—so why on earth would they set the odds like this? I'm not saying your logic is flawed—it makes sense, really—but from everything I've learned the hard way, these kinds of spots are best avoided. Betting sites don't just pull these kinds of stunts for the hell of it. Without some kind of insider info we don't have, a fair price for Kazan would probably be closer to 2.20, maybe even a bit lower than that, right?

Honestly, it doesn't even matter—it’s not like we're betting the house here.

France Rounds 2-9

Los Angeles-San Francisco 1 2,20 SS (1-0)

Lens had a pretty rough start through those first seven rounds, but they finally broke the curse last week with that away win. Honestly, I think the matchup against Sochaux is the perfect moment for them to grab their first home win of the season—they’ve been stuck with three draws and a loss at home so far. On the flip side, Sochaux is sitting right at the bottom of the table, and I'm expecting their slump to continue, mostly because their offense is just non-existent right now.

Memphis-Nashville 1 1,65 SS (1-2)

Unlike Lens, Memphis hasn't really tasted defeat yet. They're playing at home against a squad that hasn't managed to pick up a single point on the road all season. Nashville is clinging to that bottom spot, and I feel like Memphis should have no trouble walking away with another three points here.

1/2 ; 2,00

Saturday...

Southampton - Swansea 1 @2,10 HL (3-1)

After dropping out of Europe, Southampton is finally starting to show some life—it feels like they're finding that rhythm they had last season. Even though they lost to United 2-3 in the last round, they actually played quite well, so you can tell the momentum is building. They’re facing Swansea now, who had a decent start to the season but have hit a bit of a slump lately—no wins and no goals in their last three official matches. Since Pelle is looking sharp in front of the net and the rest of the squad seems to be scoring easily, I’m leaning toward the home side here...

3/3 ; 2,23

Tuesday 2045

Bayern(3.5)-Los Angeles FC more @ 2.00

A few people have already started thinking along these lines, and hey—count me in! Right now, there are really only three absolute juggernauts on the planet: Real Madrid, FC Barcelona, and Bayern. Everyone else? Just a tier below. Plus, Bayern is basically built for pure entertainment—they don't care how much the result matters, they just love to pile on the goals once they smell blood in the water and see their opponent flagging.

HSV 8:0
AS Roma 7:1
Basel 7:0
Shaktar 7:0
Sporting 7:1
Werder 6:0
Porto 6:1

Los Angeles FC is definitely way out of their league compared to those giants. That win against Arsenal? Honestly, it was just a perfect storm of lucky breaks—playing reserves, total underestimation from the other side, missing sitters, hitting the woodwork early on, and then throwing in an unlucky own goal and some random red card.

So, if you ask me, the odds of seeing a 4:0 or a 3:1 scoreline are actually way higher than 50%... I'd say at least 75%!

Any bookies out there??

Friday, 09/25
US Second Division

20:00 Buffalo - New Orleans 1 (1-2)
The second-place home team is facing the 20th-placed side on the table.
After two consecutive draws, I guess it’s about time Buffalo picks up a win. They definitely need it if they want to secure promotion to the First Division.
What makes this pick easier for me is that New Orleans hasn't managed a single victory in months. On top of that, they've picked up zero points from their last four away matches while conceding four goals.

PSK @1.70

4/13 ; 1.50