Soccer Betting Tips & Discussion

Maria A.(idg)-Sha-Paris Saint-Germain (09/30, 8:45 PM) daje@4,10 - I simply can't pass up odds this high. Given that Di Maria has found the back of the net in three of his last five outings, he seems quite determined to prove the doubters wrong after Manchester United suggested he wasn't quite cutting it. To be honest, my gut tells me that Paris Saint-Germain is looking significantly sharper right now than Shakhtar Donetsk.

0/1

ksapi said:Malmo-Real/ Cristiano Ronaldo to score + F2 at 2.20 on Bet365
Real Madrid have stumbled into a bit of a slump following that massive home win against Shakhtar Donetsk in the first round of the Champions League. Honestly, those narrow wins over Athletic Bilbao and Granada—plus that scoreless draw against Malaga—are hardly the perfect setup for a big European night. Usually, when Real starts dropping points like this, someone else ends up paying the price. Malmo should be the perfect side to help them rebuild some confidence and get the vibes back up in the locker room, and I’m sure the club realizes that. Benzema basically dragged them through those two tight wins with his three goals, but Cristiano Ronaldo hasn't found the net since his hat-trick against Shakhtar Donetsk. The ball just won't go in—it’s frustrating to watch—even though he’s giving it everything he’s got out there. It’s no shocker that they had nine shots on target during that scoreless draw with Malaga and still came up empty. I’m feeling like tonight is finally the night he breaks this drought and pulls Real out of this funk; expect something similar to what we saw against Espanyol, Real Betis, or Shakhtar Donetsk. Malmo is sitting pretty at 5th in Sweden after 26 rounds—they aren't playing anything special, and frankly, they'll need a miracle to survive tonight.

Malmo basically shrunk the pitch by about 6 feet 😁

Shakhtar Donetsk +3 Asian Handicap @ 2.35 (0-3) vs PSG

The odds look a little high here, especially considering both sides are incredibly clinical right now. On the flip side, Shakhtar Donetsk isn't exactly the type of squad that knows how to sit back, play a disciplined 0-0, and wait for openings—unless you count Bayern Munich last year as the outlier. Their defense can be leaky, particularly when facing a powerhouse like Paris Saint-Germain. Then again, while PSG can play defensively, if they grab an early lead and the game opens up, they have a nasty habit of conceding away from home. Teixeira and the rest of the Shakhtar attacking unit really need to find a way to get on the scoresheet, especially if they actually have any hope of making it out of the group. They got hammered 4-0 by Real Madrid last week, but they were absolutely livid with the referee—which tells me they were actually putting up a fight and probably shouldn't have lost by that much. They aren't nearly as bad as the scoreline suggests.

2/3 ; 1.98

Champions League
Time: 20:45 Tonight

Atletico Madrid - Benfica

over 2.5 (1-2) @ 2.50 (Bet365)
-------------------------------
- Simeone's crew plays their first Champions League match of the season tonight in front of their home crowd. They're facing a fluid Benfica side, and honestly, getting 2.50 on over 2.5 goals is way too good to pass up... at least if you ask me. Atletico always looks to push it hard at home, and that’s exactly what’s happening tonight. Benfica has enough quality to crack Atletico's defense since they've got some solid attackers. To be real, Madrid isn't the defensive powerhouse they used to be, which is why I think that 2.50 line is a gift. Three goals shouldn't be hard to come by here. Madrid's got a wild Antoine Griezmann playing hot right now, plus Torres and Jackson Martinez. Martinez is a killer striker in my book—give him an inch and he'll score. Even though Simeone usually keeps him on the bench as a sub rather than starting him, it doesn't matter much because he can change a game in seconds. Torres is also firing, so I don't see how Atletico holds a clean sheet with this lineup. Benfica will definitely punish them on the counter... three goals is a safe bet here.

Prediction:

Atl. Madrid 2:1 Benfica

1/1 ; 2.50

Man. United - Wolfsburg halftime/fulltime 1/1 at 2.70 SS (1-1 / 2-1)

Since Manchester has a lot more Champions League experience under their belt compared to Wolfsburg, I really think they have the edge here. After that first match against PSV—where they actually held the lead but ended up dropping points—they’re going to be hungry to secure all three points tonight. Looking at their home form in the Premier League, they've managed to lead by halftime in two of their games already, which isn't a bad way to kick off the season. I'm expecting the Red Devils to come out swinging early to grab that opening goal and set the tone. A 2.70 payout feels like solid value to me, so I decided to toss it on my slip.

1/6 ; 2.00

PAOK : Borussia Dortmund 3.5-2 yellow cards 1.65 BetMGM (5)
High-strung Greek fans, a fiery coach, and a wild atmosphere... basically a powder keg. PAOK is gonna play hard to avoid a loss, which usually means playing right on the edge of a booking. Plus, Borussia has a few players who tend to lose their cool. The ref averages about 4.75 yellows per game, so hitting 4 shouldn't be a stretch at all. I'm eyeing the 4.5-2 line at 1.70... easy enough...
http://worldreferee.com/referee/anthony_taylor

Braga : Groningen 1x and 2+ goals 1.45 BetMGM (1-0)
Braga is absolutely crushing it at home in the Portuguese league—3 wins out of 3 with an 11:2 goal difference—they're keeping pace with the top tier, so the form is definitely there. On the flip side, Groningen has been struggling on the road in their domestic league, dropping all 3 away games with a 0:6 goal diff. They took a 0:3 hit against Marseille, while Braga grabbed a 0:1 win away against Slovan Liberec. A win here puts Braga in a perfect spot to advance. For the risk-takers, maybe try the 1 and 2+ goals at 1.87...

19/24 ; 1.67

Thursday, 10/01
UEFA Europa League

19:00 Cleveland Browns - Skenderbeu 1 @1,15 (2-0)
The gap in quality here is just too wide; anything other than a home win would be a massive shock.
The Cleveland Browns are in great shape, coming off a 1-1 draw against CSKA in the league, and they recently dismantled Sporting CP right in the middle of Lisbon. On the other hand, Skenderbeu looks like a semi-pro outfit based on what we saw from them recently.

19:00 Augsburg - Partizan 1 @1,60 (1-3)
This looks like a decent value play.
While Partizan isn't exactly a pushover in this competition, they are clearly outclassed compared to the hosts, who need to grab three points after that disaster at San Mames.
Augsburg needs this win to rebuild some confidence after a string of poor performances, so I'm leaning toward the home side.

21:05 Liverpool FC - Sion 1X @1,20 (1-1)/I]
Even though anything can happen with Liverpool FC—and even if you consider the tired old cliché about "English interest" in this tournament—I don't think they should lose at home to Sion.

21:05 Krasnodar - Gabala 1 @1,30 (2-1)
Krasnodar is a very solid side with significant attacking potential.
They lost their opening match in Dortmund, so there is a huge imperative to win here.
Gabala has been a sympathetic underdog, climbing to unexpected heights since the qualifying rounds, but I suspect they will eventually run out of steam here.
Krasnodar is simply more experienced and stronger; I doubt they'll fail to take all three points.

Parlay SS @2,87

5/16 ; 1,52

Especially today, Skrill is just so smooth and easy for everyone to use.

Btw, quick offtopic for the mods—when you guys drop picks after a 2/2 result and list the odds, is that being tracked somewhere? Like, is there some leaderboard for whoever hits the most parlays or what...

Henry Hayes3 said:Especially nowadays, Skrill is just so seamless and easy for everyone to use.

Anyway, I’ve got a quick little off-topic question for the mods: when you guys post our picks after the matches wrap up with a 2/2 result along with the odds, is that being tracked somewhere? Like, is there some kind of master leaderboard being built to see which forum members are hitting the most parlays?

I actually started doing this on my own—I'm keeping track of every single player's stats, so by the end of the year, I'll be dropping a full ranking of all the forum members who have been posting their picks in PDF format.
By 2016, I’ll probably start refusing to include taxes and fees from winning bets at our local sportsbooks because, honestly, it doesn't make much sense to keep doing it this way. I might even pull the trigger on that sooner.

Some posts have been moved to their appropriate threads.

Braga vs Groningen 1&3+ 2.60 (1-0)

Braga is currently in excellent domestic form, a fact they recently validated with an impressive away victory against Liberec in the Europa League.
They enter this match as heavy favorites. When playing on their home turf, they are exceptionally formidable and frequently secure convincing victories.
The squad possesses great technical skill. Do I believe they will take this matchup seriously? Absolutely. A win here would effectively open the doors for them to advance. Meanwhile, the visitors have struggled to find any semblance of momentum lately.
Unlike last season, they had a rocky start to their league campaign, particularly during away fixtures where they suffered a 0-6 goal difference across three matches. They also faced a tough European outing at home, losing 0-3 to a much more prestigious side, Marseille.
That said, I wouldn't rule out a goal from the visitors. Braga tends to play a high line, leaving space behind for counter-attacks, so the away side will certainly have opportunities.
I am anticipating a scoreline of either 3-1 or 4-1 in favor of Braga.

Sparta Prague vs Apoel 3+ 1.90 (2-0)

The home team is a massive favorite here. However, is the price right for a straight win? Perhaps not, as the Cypriot side can be quite an annoying opponent. They are capable of playing well and possess lightning-fast counter-attacking abilities. I suspect they might find the back of the net; while Sparta Prague is a strong squad, their defense isn't exactly their greatest strength, whereas their attack remains their primary weapon.
Sparta lacks consistency right now. Their performance has been hit-or-miss, which explains their recent derby loss against Slavija.
The hosts secured their spot in the Europa League group stage by knocking out Thun, and interestingly, ten goals were scored across those two matches.
They tend to play an open style of football, giving opponents plenty of room. I believe the visitors will attempt an upset, especially since they suffered a heavy defeat to Schalke 04 in the opening round. If they fail today, their chances of progressing look slim.
The local odds are quite decent, and international bookmakers are heavily leaning toward the "over" for this match.

Besiktas vs Sporting CP over 4.5 yellows 1.75 (4)

This promises to be a gritty encounter. Both teams show no hesitation when it comes to committing fouls or playing a physical game.
The referee is the Italian official Paolo Tagliavento, which I view as a positive factor for this specific bet.
In high-stakes matches with intense atmospheres, I expect the referee to step up and penalize any aggressive challenges. He will likely need to work hard to keep tensions under control on the pitch.
Sporting CP is looking to bounce back after a decisive home loss to Lokomotiv Moscow. They will be hungry to make amends.
Make no mistake, Sporting is a dangerous side and can easily walk away with all three points.
I am expecting a physical battle with frequent stoppages in play.
While a red card isn't out of the question, the option for yellow cards feels like the smartest play here.

6/14 ; 2.93

Chelsea vs Southampton betting odds 1 1,80 SuperSport (1-3)

Man, I really burned through some cash backing Chelsea on this one ☕. I’m taking them for the win, even though looking back at how these two sides have matched up lately doesn't give me much confidence. Chelsea has only managed to beat Southampton once in their last three home games—and that was two years ago; their most recent meeting ended in a draw. Honestly, Southampton has a pretty solid squad, especially upfront, and the only thing they’re really missing today is a reliable keeper. On the flip side, Chelsea’s season opener was just painful to watch. Aside from that win against Arsenal, they haven't shown much. Their biggest headache right now is definitely the attack; Diego Costa and Pedro have only combined for two goals so far. Plus, with Thibaut Courtois still out and Diego Costa suspended, maybe Radamel Falcao finally gets a shot? If they weren't playing so poorly, I’d throw a heavy wager on them, but I'm sticking to a single win bet here because they desperately need these three points. They’re already trailing Manchester United by 8 points, and they seriously need to find their rhythm soon.

Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Wolfsburg over 2.5 goals DA 2,00 SS (2-0)

After a pretty rough start to the league, Borussia Dortmund has bounced back with two straight wins, racking up seven goals in the process. They even managed to score against Manchester City, despite missing a penalty along the way. Wolfsburg, on the other hand, has some real firepower in their lineup—guys like Maximilian Kruse, Julian Draxler, André Schürrle, and Leon Dost—so I think they can definitely find the back of the net. It doesn't help that Dortmund tends to concede more than two goals per game when they're playing at home. I'm leaning toward a Dortmund win, but right now, I think going with the "over" on total goals is a much more realistic play, and the odds look decent enough.

1/9 ; 2,00

Sunderland AFC vs West Ham United 2 @2.5 (2-2)

Solid value here for a side that’s been facing much tougher away fixtures than what Sunderland AFC just dealt with... they play with zero pressure—nothing to lose—and while they've definitely been part of some high-scoring affairs, they've also conceded more goals than anyone else in the Premier League... I mean, does that really need saying?

Manchester City vs Newcastle United 1 @1.25 (6-1)

A little luck in the LP and a matchup against one of the bottom-dwellers should be a lock today... the gap in sheer talent is massive. Manchester City should walk away with at least a two-goal cushion, especially since Newcastle United has only managed 5 goals in 7 rounds—the lowest in the league—so they aren't exactly a threat...

Odds over at the local sportsbook

3/4 ; 1.70

Sevilla vs Barcelona betting odds ; 2,05 US Lottery (2-1)
I’m not usually one to jump on these public bets, but I’m actually going to take this one. Look, FC Barcelona hasn't been nearly as convincing this season as they were last year, but they still find a way to win. They’ve played 8 matches across the Europa League and La Liga, pulling off 6 wins with just one draw and one loss (and five of those wins were by a single goal). On top of them looking a bit shaky, they've hit a massive roadblock: the injury to Lionel Messi. They already had to deal with his absence against Bayer Leverkusen on Tuesday, but they managed to make up for it. My gut tells me you won't notice he's missing in games like this, but against the absolute elite? That's when it's going to hurt.
Now, let's talk about Sevilla for a second, because honestly, the only reason I’m even playing this is because of their recent form and all those injuries. Hardly anyone would have guessed Sevilla would be sitting at 16th after 6 rounds with only 5 goals to their name—especially after that wild 4-4 thriller against Barca in the Super Cup nearly two months ago. Since then, they’ve played 8 games and only managed two wins (with 2 draws and 4 losses). One of those wins came against a totally outclassed Borussia Mönchengladbach; they actually held their own in the first half, but then Sevilla was gifted three penalties in the second half, and that's how it ended 3-0. Their other win was against Ray two weeks ago, a 3-2 nail-biter decided by a goal in the final minute. Then on Wednesday, they went up against an uninspired Juventus in the Europa League and completely let me down. Sevilla has never been a "park the bus" type of team; they're supposed to create chances and outscore their problems. Against Juventus, they barely managed a single shot on target in 90 minutes—it was pathetic. They are drowning in injuries right now and clearly can't get their heads above water. I think we’re looking at a similar disaster today, where Barca will dictate the tempo for the full 90 minutes and hopefully strike early. Over their last 7 league games, Barca has 6 wins and a draw, and that's even considering the times Sevilla was playing football that was two classes above this current mess.

27/55 ; 1,86

Hajduk Split vs Istria +2 @2.10 DraftKings (3-0)

Hajduk Split’s only loss this season in the league came against Istria. It’s time for payback. The vibes in both clubs couldn't be more different. Hajduk is finally finding their rhythm and actually pushing Dinamo Chicago again, while over at Istria, they've got unpaid wages and players fighting in the locker room. Hajduk is missing Aristote Ohandza again, but last week against Split proved we can win without him. Ante Burić isn't the type to gamble on a match like this, but the talent gap is massive. I think Hajduk is going to settle the score for all those losses from previous seasons. I might throw a parlay together for a player to score, but the +2 spread has great value. That's my main pick for today. Good luck everyone!

6/11 ; 3.05

Rosenborg BK to score first & 3+ goals @ 2.10 HL (0-4)

http://www.flashscore.com/match/UL5UW2Hf/#h2h;overall

So, looking at the numbers here—out of 22 matches played, this specific play hit 18 times. Pretty wild, right?
The Home team had a week off to chill, while Rosenborg ended up taking an L at home against Dnipro in the Europa League.
Honestly, the Home team hasn't seen a win in 10 games now, so there isn't much math left to do—just take a shot at an upset where Rosenborg takes the early lead, and we should see plenty of goals.

9/15 ; 1.59

Arsenal - Manchester United 2 @3.5 (3-0) @SS

Maybe I'm just being a fan here, but looking at how things have played out this past month, this isn't even that crazy. Arsenal is just rolling right now—they don't seem to have an answer for anyone, not even LA Galaxy... meanwhile, you've got a team today that's practically a fortress with the fewest goals conceded. Even if their attack isn't exactly terrifying (I mean, even Leicester City put up more numbers 🤣), they'll still jump to first place with a win.

3/5 ; 1.70

Wed 20.45 Fiorentina - Atalanta 1 1.70 (3-0) (SS)

Fiorentina is on quite the tear right now, riding a four-game winning streak—and three of those were on the road. They absolutely dismantled Belenenses 4-0 in the Europa League, but those wins against Inter Milan (4-1) and Carpi (1-0) really felt like the heavy hitters. They’re playing some seriously sharp football lately, too. It feels like ages since they actually sat at the top of the Serie A table, but here we are. In the league this season, they've only dropped one match so far—that 3-1 loss away at Torino—and they've already notched five wins, including two massive scalps against Milan (a 2-0 home win) and that aforementioned Inter side. On the other side, Atalanta is holding steady in 8th place with 11 points (3-2-1). That said, the head-to-head history leans heavily toward the purple side; they've taken the last seven meetings. Atalanta always seems to struggle when they travel to Florence, and honestly, it’s weird because I don't think they've ever walked away with all three points there... at least, that's what Soccerway shows me 😁

Good luck 😉

2/3 ; 1,55

Rijeka - Chicago 1 & 3+ @ 1,8 GERMANIA (4-1)

The home side finally seems to have sorted out their defensive mess—thank god—but man, they just cannot finish anything. It’s like the ball refuses to go in. Seriously, they've been stuck in 0:0 deadlocks for the last two games, and honestly? I can see Chicago just absolutely steamrolling them here.

10/16 ; 1,62

Oct 20:45

Albania-Mexico @ 3.20 SS

It’s not even just that these two national teams have such a rough relationship right now—honestly, I can't even remember the last time two sides were this much at odds, maybe back during the war between Honduras and El Salvador?
The Albanians absolutely need this win, and you just know the Mexicans are going to give it everything they've got to make sure that doesn't happen. Since the footballing level is pretty close, things are bound to get dramatic—tension is going through the roof! Expect some roughness on the pitch, and UEFA will probably be breathing down everyone's necks with stricter rules just to prevent a full-blown brawl or a match abandonment.

ZORAN MIRKOVIĆ vs ROBERT JARNI


Šimunić vs Sulejmani.


Mexico vs Albania fight


1/3 ; 1.90

Psyching myself up at 3.60. It’s certainly nothing to scoff at.🙂
By the way, I find myself in complete agreement with that gentleman's assessment.

The current time is 2:40 🤣