Soccer Betting Tips & Discussion

LA Galaxy - Boston Celtics 2 (0-1)(2.65) SS

Odds might climb on match day if there's a special offer, or they might drop. Who knows. The Celtics have been on fire this season. They’ve swept their domestic league with 7 wins in 7 games, outscoring everyone 22 to 3. They just crushed the LA Lakers 4-0 at home too. In the Champions League, they took down Arsenal FC on the road, though they did lose 0-3 at home to Bayern Munich—conceding those last two goals right at the end. They've got some serious talent like Terrence Malek, Esteban Cambiasso, and Finnbogasson, and honestly, they look better than the Galaxy. Plus, the Galaxy will be missing Ademi, who's basically their engine in midfield. Word is Sigal is a doubt, Shife is definitely out, so we might see Benković back in the starting lineup again.

3/4 ; 2,17

Dynamo Kyiv-Chelsea 2 2.65 SS (0-0)

After dropping games to FC Porto and Southampton FC, Chelsea managed to steady the ship with a home win against Aston Villa. It’s been a pretty rough start to the season for the Blues—they're sitting there with six losses and two draws already. But honestly, the big story here is one specific player: Yarmolenko. If José Mourinho can find a way to shut him down, it leaves LA Galaxy in a massive hole. In that last match against Aston Villa, Chelsea was missing Oscar, Eden Hazard, and Tim Cahill, so they actually looked much stronger once those guys were back in the mix. Since the Blues are only holding onto third place after just two rounds, I really think Mourinho is going to field his absolute best lineup against LA Galaxy. Whether that win over Villa was just a fluke or a sign they're out of the slump will be truly tested in this matchup.

On the flip side, LA Galaxy is coming off a tough 3-0 shutout loss against Shakhtar Donetsk. Shakhtar did a great job neutralizing Yarmolenko, and they punished them on the counter-attack. LA Galaxy did manage to scrape a 2-2 draw at home against FC Porto, though, thanks to a late equalizer right around the 90th minute. Looking at their schedule, they've only played three "big" matches so far, resulting in two losses and that single draw.

Another reason I'm leaning toward Chelsea is simply the value. At odds of 2.65, it feels like a smart play to take a shot...

3/14 ; 1,95

What is the current situation regarding the youth academies at LA Galaxy and Olympiacos? Are we talking about players who actually have world-class potential—the kind of talent that makes an impact on the global stage—or is it something else entirely?

swiftmoose20 said:What's the deal with the youth setups at the big clubs—like maybe some top-tier MLS academies or European giants? Are the kids actually playing against world-class talent, or what?

Well, seven of the guys from that match against Bayern Munich—five of whom actually played, and one who even managed to find the back of the net—are currently over in Chile.

So, if you want to see how things stack up, just look here:

http://www.uefa.com/uefayouthleague/...312/index.html

http://int.soccerway.com/matches/201...?ICID=PL_MS_04

Eric Fox7 said:Seven players from that match against Bayern Munich—five of whom actually started, including Brekalo who managed to find the back of the net—are currently out in Chile.

So, if you really want to compare the two:

http://www.uefa.com/uefayouthleague/...312/index.html

http://int.soccerway.com/matches/201...?ICID=PL_MS_04

though I suspect they might pull someone up from the B team who is actually eligible to play.

Tyler Scott8 said:but I honestly think they’ll pull someone up from the MLS Next academy who actually deserves a shot.

Yeah, right. Like they've got plenty of options for the World Cup: Lovren, mora, Brekalo, Kalaica, and Soldo.

Los Angeles FC - Boston Celtics (handicap 0:1) 2 @5.80 FanDuel (0-1)

I think it was FanDuel, I didn't double-check my slip so I'm not sure where exactly it was placed, but the odds are right...

LAFC is going to try and pull something off with their defense again, but it’s a long shot without Adem. In those rare moments I've actually watched LAFC lately, he's basically been half the team. As for the defense? Don't even get me started. You just have to look at the roster to realize how much of a sieve they are back there, especially with that Portuguese flop playing goalie...

The Celtics are playing incredibly well right now. They know if they just push LAFC around, that second spot in the standings is pretty much locked up...

Expecting an easy win here.☕

0/3

Ethan Jones5 said:Los Angeles FC - Boston Celtics (handicap 0:1) 2 @5.80 DraftKings

I think it’s just the odds on DraftKings. I didn't check my actual slip, so I'm not sure where it was placed, but the line looks right...

LAFC is going to try to play defense again, but it's tough to pull off without Adem. Every time I've watched them lately, he’s been half the team. And don't even get me started on that defense. You just look at those names and realize how much space they leave open, especially with that Portuguese keeper struggling.

The Celtics are playing great right now. They know if they push LAFC hard, they basically lock in second place...

Expecting an easy win here.☕

bibinje, you probably meant (h1:0) because what's written above doesn't make any sense.😉

Arsenal - Bayern 1 4,00 Expedia (2-0)

Arsenal basically needs this win if they want any hope left in this tournament. Bayern probably wants to lock things up early, but honestly, they could cruise to first place even without a win in this group. Arsenal looks solid. Bayern might be better, but I’m going with Arsenal tonight—no deep thinking required. That 4.00 odds at home just feels too good to pass up, even against a team like Bayern. Expect a blowout with tons of goals and an Arsenal win.

8/14 ; 3,10

Dana Flores3 said:Look, you probably meant (h1:0) because what you wrote above makes zero sense. 😉

Yeah, just a smoker being careless... barely slept, woke up, and saw 0-1...

He was just typing fast on his phone. That's why there was a typo...

Better late than never, but here we go.

4:00 PM Celta Vigo - Real Madrid 1x 1.90 SS // h2:0 1 @ 1.30 // 1 + Nolito @ 11.2 (1-3 + score)

Celta is looking sharp—zero injuries, zero losses, they absolutely crushed Barcelona at home 4-1, and their away wins against Sevilla and Villarreal were totally earned because they dominated. Now look at Real Madrid: they’re absolutely gutted by injuries. Benzema, Kovacic, Bale, Daniel Carvajal, Pepe... all out. Modric is starting despite just getting back from injury; he played 20 minutes against PSG, so he’ll probably push until the 60th minute—though I seriously doubt how he'll hold up until then—before Kovacic comes on for those last 30ish minutes since he's just sitting on the bench. They played PSG just three days ago, so fatigue is going to be an issue. The lineup features Casemiro, Vasquez (that $1M signing this season), Danilo, and Jesus. Beyond Kovacic, there’s nobody on the bench worth bringing on. If Real actually pulls this off, then it’s a huge statement—something that actually counts toward winning the title at the end of the season. But it’s tough, incredibly tough. And thinking they win by two goals? That’s a massive stretch in my book. Nolito is Celta's top scorer and part of that aggressive front three, so he’s my prime candidate to find the net.

6:30 PM Salzburg - Ried h0:2 1 @2.00 (2-1) SS

The odds for a 6+ parlay are sitting at 4.00. Ried is dead last, they already got hammered 4-1 at home against Salzburg, and now, on top of the injuries plaguing them lately, their main center-back Filipovic (ex-Cibalia player) is suspended. That alone tells you everything you need to know about how weak Ried is and what Soriano is about to do to them. Salzburg's last win was an 8-0 blowout against a much tougher opponent. Today, everyone is talking about captain Soriano chasing his 100th goal for Salzburg. Ried is definitely going to park the bus—they struggle to score against anyone, even weak teams—and their manager basically admitted that even if they walk away without a point today, they’re sticking to the game plan just to prepare for future matches (which is code for "even if we're losing 0-3, we're still playing defense"). Still, I don't think that's going to stop Salzburg from putting 3 or 4 past them. Honestly, though, that's what stops me from going for the 6+ bet; a 4.00 multiplier is just insulting. 😁 It's a shame; you can't even bet on a single scorer (like Soriano) or a hat trick in the Austrian league through SS anymore. Does any American sportsbook even offer that?

7:00 PM Hajduk - Lokomotiva 1 @ 1.50 (2-1) SS

Lokomotiva has basically become Hajduk's favorite punching bag. They aren't nearly the squad they were a few years ago, and their style of play plays right into Hajduk's hands. With the weather being this nice and the fact that nothing has been played at Poljud for 20 days, I’m expecting over 15,000 fans in attendance. I'm looking at a 2-0 or 2-1 win. The extra motivation will likely be clinching first place in the standings with a victory.

3/8 ; 1.82

Ned:

Rijeka - Dinamo 2 2.70 SS (2-1)

After picking up two straight wins against Lokomotiva and Dinamo, Rijeka is back home to face Dinamo. This season, their only real stumble was that Europa League qualifying loss to Aberdeen right here at their own stadium (0-3). It’s been a while since they beat Dinamo on home turf—not since 2012, I believe—so you can bet they’ll be hungry to pull it off. From what I can see, they have a full squad available, so there aren't any major excuses for them this time around.

On the other side, Dinamo is coming off a really impressive showing against Olympiacos, and now they head out to try and knock Rijeka off their perch for the first time this season. Unlike the home team, Mamić ?! will likely bench Edward and throw Ježina into the fire as the keeper. They’re dealing with some absences too: Pinta is out, Sigal probably won't play despite looking better lately, and Ademi is definitely out. Even so, Dinamo has a deep enough roster for the HNL to stay a step ahead of the pack. Their attack is looking scary—Henriquez, Hodzic, Fernandez, and Soudani have been lethal, with Soudani alone racking up 24 goals and 4 assists. With an offense like that, and the fact that Dinamo is only conceding about 0.6 goals per game in the league, they are tough to stop.

If they drop points here, they’ll likely hand the top spot over to Hajduk, so there's plenty of pressure on them to keep the momentum going.

Ned:

Sampdoria - Verona 1 2.00 SS (4-1)

Even though Italian matchups can be tricky and unpredictable, I’m adding this one to my slip tomorrow. Honestly, the odds on Sampdoria (2.00) feel a bit too generous to me, considering how much of a favorite they are. This group hasn't lost in 21 of their last 23 Serie matches. Plus, when these two teams meet, Sampdoria has stayed unbeaten in their last five encounters with Verona.

The trio of Eder Cassano, Muriel, and their strike partner is clicking beautifully, with 9 goals and 4 assists between them. Playing at home in Serie, Sampdoria has been incredibly efficient, grabbing three wins and even snagging a point against Inter. After only picking up one point in their last three games, they absolutely need to secure a win here.

Verona, meanwhile, is sitting near the bottom of the table with just 5 points. They’ve struggled to find the net on the road, scoring only twice in four away matches. While Sampdoria has a healthy squad, Verona is feeling the sting of injuries—they'll be without their captain Tony, plus three other key players are sidelined.

4/16 ; 1.96

Manchester United vs. Manchester City
Both teams score in the first half @4.00 tipico (0-0)

A lot of people are looking at this Manchester derby and predicting a low-scoring affair. Most analysts are calling for under 2.5 goals. But let's look at the injury report—ManU is definitely going to struggle to find the back of the net without
Shaw, McNair, and Young. On the other side, City is missing Agüero, Clichy, and Delph, and even Silva is a major question mark. If ManU pulls off a win, they’ll leapfrog City in the standings after a long drought. I have a feeling they’re going to come out swinging right from the whistle, and you can bet the Citizens won't just sit there and take it. ManU already proved they could break City's stranglehold this year with that 4:2 win. Look, I know this bet carries some risk, but I can't pass it up. It's worth noting that in 4 of City's last 5 matches, both sides found the net in the first half. Kickoff is at 3:05 PM.

0/3

Rijeka vs Dinamo: 2 and Henriquez scores 7 PSK
Henriquez at 2.9 (2-1 + he doesn't score)

The odds on this are massive. Look, Rijeka is decent, but Dinamo is just on another level—though I guess there are other ways to play it if you don't trust the heavy hitters. Dinamo is clicking right now despite missing some guys, and their strikers are absolutely ripping it. The pressure is mounting, though; Hajduk isn't backing down, so Dinamo basically has to win today just to keep their grip on first place. It’s a must-win situation. Honestly, Henriquez is easily the best striker Dinamo has seen in years. If they weren't forcing some other guys into roles they aren't ready for, his stats would look even more insane, but let's be real: 37 goals and 9 assists in 52 appearances—that's a goal roughly every 95 minutes. Not bad, right? If he actually played full matches regularly, those counter-attack numbers would be through the roof. He only got scraps on Tuesday (just 39 minutes across three LP games), so I’m expecting him to start today. And when he plays, he usually finds the net. I bet on this stuff constantly; I'd take the lower odds today if I had to, but you can't pass up a seven-fold return. Just to play it safe, I'll also throw a little something on Henriquez scoring.

3/19 ; 2.68

Melbourne City - Melbourne Victory @ 2.30 (SS) (0-3)

We've got the semifinals of the US Cup coming up—single elimination style. It’s being hosted by Hume, a second-division side, who are welcoming the heavyweights from Melbourne: the top-tier defending champs. Since this is basically a once-in-a-lifetime shot for the home team to actually make it to a cup final, I’m expecting them to go all out—total "nothing to lose" energy. Of course, that creates a massive opening for the visitors to capitalize on any mistakes. They actually met recently in a friendly that ended 4-3 for Melbourne (they had another one last year too, which ended 4-1 for Melbourne Victory).

Since anything can happen in cup matches—honestly, anything—I decided to take a swing at half-time/full-time 1/2 @ 35 (PSK).

I'll be jumping on some live overs as well. Kickoff is in about ten minutes.

6/21 ; 1.93

21:00 USA U17 - Germany U17 1 5.00 PSK (2-0)

That line is sitting at 5.00 in both SS and Favorite, while over in Germany they’ve got it at 4.8. Earlier this morning, at least at PSK, it was hanging around 3.90. Looking at the international books, Marathon had it steady at 5.10 all day, but I just saw it dip to 4.75. Everywhere else it’s hovering between 4 and 4.50, just bouncing up and down constantly...

Look, even if it stayed at 3.90, I’d say that was way too high, so seeing 5.00 feels massive. That doesn't mean I think the USA are suddenly the heavy favorites or anything, but honestly? It feels like they just set these odds based on reputation and big names rather than actual data. There’s no logical reason to give the Americans such slim chances. Sure, the Germans made the European final (where the French absolutely dismantled them), while our boys went out in the quarterfinals after losing on penalties to the Belgians, then barely scraped past the Italians in extra time to grab a World Cup spot. This German squad has played 12 official matches so far. They started qualifiers by beating the Slovaks and Ukrainians before drawing with the Italians. During the Euros, they beat Belgium, Canada, and the Czech Republic in the group stage, followed by a draw in the quarters and a penalty shootout win against the Spaniards. They took down the Russians in the semis, only to get crushed 4-1 by the Frenchmen in the final. In the World Cup, they opened with a 4-1 win over Australia (who, by the way, got smoked 6-0 by Nigeria in the round of 16), cruised past a terrible Argentine side 4-0—those guys lost to Australia too—and then dropped 2-1 to Mexico to finish second in the group. So yeah, their record stands at 8:2:2.
Our guys have played one less game, so 11 total. They kicked off qualifiers by handling the Azerbaijanis, Mexicans, and Portuguese. At the Euros, they struggled in a group with the Bulgarians and Austrians playing at home, eventually settling for a draw against the Spaniards to take top spot. After a draw in the quarters and a heartbreak on penalties against Belgium, they fought through the Italians to secure that World Cup berth. At the World Cup, they opened with a 1-1 draw against Chile. That was a messy one; they tried to outrun those energetic Chileans and somehow survived, even though we're clearly the better side—you could see it in those rare moments when we actually controlled the ball and organized an attack. Then came another draw, this time against the Americans. We played two totally different halves there; we were pretty bad in the first and conceded twice, but in the second, we completely bossed them—70% possession, 18 shots to 1—but the Americans somehow clawed back to make it 2-2. Against Nigeria, I fully expected a loss because Nigerians are always scary in this age bracket (we can all guess why 😁), but our boys played brilliantly. Not only did they pull off a 2-1 comeback, they dominated the pitch: 60/40 possession, 23 shots to 8, 13 corners to 5... If they play like that again, I’m telling you, nobody can touch them. There are some serious talents in this group, and if they play smart and stay a little lucky, they could go all the way. Like I said, I’d back them even at a more realistic price, so I’m definitely not passing on this massive value...

18:00 Split – Dinamo. I Henriquez scores at 4.00 (1-0)
Henriquez scores at 2.7

Who’s betting on what? Personally, I'm riding with Angela. Aside from being Dinamo's top striker—and honestly, it's rare to see a game where he doesn't find the net—he almost always shows up against Split. In his three league appearances against them since joining Dinamo, he's scored five times: two singles and a hat-trick during that 5-1 blowout in Split last time. The only time he didn't score was in that cup final draw. Sure, it’d be smart to wait for the official lineup to see if he’s starting, but given the LP match on Wednesday—where they'll probably mess around with Pjaca as the center forward again—I'm betting we see Angela in the starting XI today. As for the odds on two, look, we have to chase first place; there's no more room for messing around. It’s not like the team isn't playing well; if it weren't for those stupid mistakes by Taravelov, we would've cruised past Rijeka easily. At the end of the day, if Angela starts, I'm not worried. 😁

The issue here is that Anhelo has been spending way too much time on the bench, and they haven't even released the starting lineups yet. http://www.transfermarkt.com/angelo-...orart/0/plus/1

edit: He’s starting from the first whistle this time.

18:30 Grodig - Wolsfberger 1 2,38 Marathonbet (1-0)

Everything I’ve managed to dig up on this match pretty much screams that this bet is the move. We're looking at two sides that are likely going to be fighting for survival until the very end of the season, both of which seem to play way better when they're at home. Wolsfberger was actually decent last season—they finished 5th and even played in Europe—but they've definitely regressed this year, and their away form is just as pathetic as it used to be. This season on the road, they’ve got a record of 0 wins, 1 draw, and 5 losses, with a goal difference of 1:7. Their only point came against Ried, who honestly isn't much better. If you factor in the spring stretch from last season, we're talking about a dismal 0:2:13 record and a goal difference of 3:26 (fun fact: two of those three goals they scored were against Rapid). Grodig, on the flip side, has been solid at home this season with a 3:2:1 record and a +6 goal difference (14:8), only failing to score more than once in a single match. Taking everything into account, I'd say the odds on a Grodig win are looking pretty juicy.

5/22 ; 3,19

01:00 Montreal - Columbus | 1 and Drogba scores a goal @ 5.60 (2:1)
Drogba scores a goal @ 2.90 SS

Columbus finished up at second in the Eastern Conference, securing that direct ticket straight to the conference semifinals. Montreal grabbed the third spot, which meant they had to grind through a matchup against sixth-place Toronto just to get there. Honestly, if you looked at the standings two or three months ago, nobody would have bet on Montreal even sniffing the playoffs, but then Drogba showed up. Over the last two months, they’ve played 12 games and gone 8-2-2. What’s wild is their home form—they played 6 times at home and went a perfect 6-0-0, outscoring opponents 16 to 5. Didier himself has been on a tear, bagging 12 goals in that stretch (making him the club's leading scorer this season 😁), and 10 of those came in just those 6 home matches. He’s scored at least once in every single one of them. Even without Drogba, Columbus lost to them 3-0 at home back this summer.
It’s not like Columbus is bad—they were second in the conference after all. They don't even have a single aging superstar on the roster and they're playing solid, but the stats I just laid out are more than enough for me to pull the trigger on these bets today.