NBA Betting: Vol. 2

So many people went bust betting on Los Angeles🤷,but hey, let's try to grab some cash today since the day is off to a beautiful start, regardless of what happens with the Betting Company😍

Danilo under 17.5 at 1.85
-I mean, he played an absolute heater against the Minnesota Timberwolves, dropping 24 points, but I honestly don't see him getting much action alongside Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum today; plus, in their three matchups this season, he's been hitting the under consistently (14, 9, 17). And have you noticed? He plays hot or cold, there is no middle ground—he just can't seem to string two good games together back-to-back
Monta Ellis over 18.5 at 1.85
-After racking up four straight wins, they totally choked their playoff momentum with two straight losses, and man, that one against their main rival, the New York Knicks, really stung! They desperately need to step it up today against a team that usually gives them trouble, especially their top scorer, who has been averaging a massive 25.3 points over the last three head-to-head matchups
John Wall over 15.5 at 1.85
-Look, his form hasn't exactly been legendary over the last month, but I'm taking him because in two matchups this season, he was absolutely electric, putting up 29 and 22 points, and honestly, that low margin is just too tempting to pass up😉
Danny Granger over 19.5 at 1.85
-I'm riding with him because he's been on fire for the last 10 games, and let's be real, the Cleveland Cavaliers don't have a defense to speak of; he’s been averaging a whopping 27.4 points over their last seven consecutive wins against them
Joe Smith over 19.5 at 1.85
-These two teams always play low-scoring grinds, and Joe Smith really stands out when things get physical; he’s been averaging 23.5 points and 9.6 rebounds over the last 11 games in this series, and just over a month ago, he put up a monster 22 points and 12 rebounds. Plus, if Dwight Howard isn't ready to go, his job gets even easier
Oklahoma City Thunder (213.5) - Sacramento Kings under 1.85
-Even though the Sacramento Kings are notorious for having a sieve of a defense and giving up tons of points, this line feels way too high; both teams usually hover around the 200-point mark, and if you look at the Oklahoma City Thunder's last 10 games, they've been staying under this threshold pretty regularly
Boston Celtics over 91.5 at 1.85
-It's common knowledge that the Boston Celtics are a squad that suffocates opponents down to about 84 points and doesn't score a ton themselves, but they are way more efficient on the road; they recently dropped 115 on the Miami Heat, and they aren't going to struggle against a weaker Toronto Raptors team that has seen plenty of teams blow past this margin

Standard 6/7 system parlay😉

That's all I got for today, fingers crossed we have better luck than we did yesterday🤷

Keith Moore21 said:#109 point Routine. ☕

You caught onto that one quite early. 👍

Keith Moore21 said:Nice work, James Taylor3. 👍 It’s a shame you didn't pull the trigger on that payment...

It doesn't matter—what counts is that you're hitting them. 😬

Frank Morgan30 said:Luol Deng didn't actually put up those 16 points. 😁

I honestly didn't even count those two points. o.o

Picks for today (my bankroll is looking pretty sketchy right now...🙂):

LeBron James under 26.5 EDIT: odds dropped to 1.70
Look, we all know the big stars step up when the lights are brightest—that’s just how it works—and this guy is no exception. But he’s been through two absolute grinders in the last three days, especially that mess last night. I don't see the desperate Charlotte Bobcats keeping this game tight enough to force him into heavy minutes, so I doubt he'll have to stay on the floor forever. Expecting around 25 minutes from him. Also, looking for Dwyane Wade to take a few more shots than usual.

Andrew Bynum over 20.5
For this one, we really need to wait for news on Kobe Bryant, but even if he plays, I think we hit this. Bynum’s shooting has been pretty shaky over the last two games (though he's making up for it on the glass😁), but tonight against the Denver Nuggets, he should find some breathing room. Denver scores plenty, but their defense is honestly a disaster. They’ve got mediocre guys playing the big man spots—maybe active, but defensively? Not great. It's safe to say their main presence in the paint is just rookie Anderson. I don't see how one Mehmet Okur or Jaونا McGee can actually contain Andrija Zoric.

Dallas Mavericks vs Portland Trail Blazers (+2.5)
Portland has basically checked out of the playoff race. With LaMarcus Aldridge likely out for the season, they’re basically playing for pride at this point. They’re running a rotation of about six "real" players, which makes it hard to match the depth of the Dallas Mavericks, especially since they've got Olumide Anikwei Mahinmi and Jason Kidd back in the mix. The Trail Blazers played well in both matchups against Dallas—lost the first by only 3, and actually beat them in OT in the second. You can bet Dallas is fired up to get some revenge. Even though the Mavericks haven't been elite, they're slowly climbing into a better playoff position.

I'm also weighing an under for one of the bottom-feeders. To me, none of them look capable of hitting the spread (unless we get a massive blowout in the first half). My first pick would be the Washington Wizards; facing a New York Knicks team that has tightened up its defense—even without Nene and Devin Booker—I just don't see how they cover.🤷
The Sacramento Kings are another thought. They managed to beat the Oklahoma City Thunder (106-101) in their only matchup this year, so playing at home should give them that extra edge. Plus, this is just the first of three meetings between them in the next ten days.
Charlotte Hornets under 89.5
Washington Wizards under 93.5
Sacramento Kings under 98.5 (99.5 Betting Company)
Toronto Raptors Under 85.5

EDIT: Jose Calderon and Mehmed Okur are questionable for Toronto tonight. Between Amir Bargnanij and Skip Bayless being out for a while, the writing is on the wall. Might even go with Boston Celtics (-6.5) or Boston Celtics over 91.5).

Ty Lawson at 17.5 under with odds of 1.85 feels way too high—it’s inflated by at least 2 points. Honestly, 15.5 is more realistic based on what other betting companies are showing. Even though he played great last time, the roster is set, there's a chance DeAndre Chandler returns to the rotation, and I don't see this turning into a track meet with 200+ points. Plus, the LA Lakers defense is solid inside the paint; if he doesn't nail three or four triples, there's no way he clears this line.
Also, what's up with Nelson's line being set at 17.5??? The odds are sitting at 1.6 right now, but his average is barely over 11. Sure, he steps up when the superstar is out, and he cleared this against the Washington Wizards and Detroit Pistons, but facing Atlanta today is going to be a much tougher grind.

tonight we've got Orlando Magic vs Atlanta Hawks
then this Sunday, it's LA Lakers vs Dallas Mavericks

Dana Baker2 said:I’m still chewing on that "under" bet for one of these teams... honestly, looking at the matchups, it feels like none of them are going to hit their margins. I mean, unless we see some absolute blowout madness in the first half, I just don't see it happening. If I had to pick a side, I'd go with the Washington Wizards. Facing a New York Knicks squad that actually decided to show up defensively—and doing it without Nene or Devin Booker—there's just no way they're hitting that number.🤷

I'm with you on that... out of all the options you just laid out, I'd definitely jump on the Washington Wizards Under 93.5 first. 👍

Since they just dropped the line on the Miami Heat to -14.5 down to 1.70, I think I'm actually gonna pull the trigger on this one. Over 104.5 for the Miami Heat.Man, Keith Moore21 really hit the nail on the head yesterday regarding that Detroit Pistons over. I mean, they were playing against what is hands down the absolute worst team in the league right now. The Charlotte Hornets are sitting dead last with a win-loss record that is just straight-up embarrassing—7 and 49? Yeah, you read that right. It’s grim. 👎And that’s just how they play... honestly, they look completely checked out. They’re totally uninspired and just plain anemic heading into this end-of-season stretch, though let's be real, they haven't exactly looked any better lately either. Defense? Yeah, right. It’s clearly a foreign concept to them. They’ve been handing up 100+ points like it’s nothing over the last few games, so what else am I supposed to expect today against one of the most lethal offenses in the league? Just more of the same. 🤷 With Dwyane Wade back in the lineup, the Miami Heat shouldn't have any trouble smashing through this margin tonight—at least, in my book, the line feels way too low. This is actually the third time these two squads have clashed this season, and honestly, Miami has swept them both already. I mean, they barely scraped by on the road with a 95-96 win right at the start of the season, but then they absolutely demolished them at home a few days later, something like 129-90. That said, Miami hasn't exactly looked like a powerhouse lately. Their offensive rhythm has been pretty shaky, which makes tonight a perfect chance to finally find their groove again. It’s also the perfect setup for Dwyane Wade to reclaim that elite level of play he had before those injury issues started messing everything up. Plus, after that lackluster performance and loss against the Chicago Bulls last night, they’re probably feeling pretty embarrassed. They’ll likely be looking to make it up to the fans by taking all that frustration out on the miserable Charlotte Hornets.

Besides all that, I’m also feeling a little pull toward an under for the Houston Rockets vs Phoenix Suns game... the line is sitting at 199.5, which honestly feels a bit high to me. There are a few different reasons why I think they should have set it lower:

Look, the stakes for this game? They’re massive. We’re staring down the barrel of the end of the season here, and honestly, it's heavy. If the Suns pull this off, they basically buy themselves a little more breathing room—just enough to keep that delusional hope alive that they can actually scrape into the playoffs. But if they choke? That’s it. Game over. Plan canceled. On the flip side, a loss like that would be a huge leap forward for the Rockets, pushing them one step closer to making their move. Because of all that pressure, both defenses need to tighten up. I'm talking serious, locked-in, high-intensity stuff. No more playing around.
Look, even though these squads used to be labeled as pure run-and-gun outfits, things have shifted a bit lately. They’ve actually tightened up their game, seeing fewer points scored and allowed compared to what we saw in previous seasons. It’s like they finally decided to stop playing track meets and actually play some defense. If you look at the last four matchups between them—three of which happened just this season—the totals were 185 (99:86 Phoenix Suns), 185 (89:96 Houston Rockets), 180 (99:81 Houston Rockets), and 188 (95:93 last season). Honestly, all those numbers sit way below today's line. Just saying.
Alright, here's one more interesting little nugget for you... looks like we've got this crew stepping in to call this game:
Man, I'm calling it. Off. 1. Amir Bargnanij is basically the king of the under. Seriously, this guy is obsessed with keeping scores low. This season alone, he’s called the under in 36 games—only 7 of those actually went over, while the other 29 stayed strictly under whatever margin was set. He’s got a pattern, and honestly, it's getting a little predictable.
Missed. For J. Crawford, looking at the numbers, he hit the over 21 times and the under 22 times out of 43 total games. But what’s actually wild is that he only covered the home spread 16 times, while being on the underdog side 27 times. You could argue he just doesn't have much faith in home teams, kind of like my buddy Tony B. 😬
Missed. For K. Fitzgerald, it was 21 overs and 26 unders.

So, yeah, taking all that into account, I’m throwing my hat in the ring for the under 199.5. Whatever happens, happens... ☕

By the way, if anyone actually cares about this kind of stuff... the matchup between the LA Lakers vs Dallas Mavericks is going to be called by three refs who—if you look at the stats—are total under enthusiasts (M. Callahan 14/27, D. Jones 18/24, and J. Williams 18/23). 😁

Anyway, here's today's double...

Miami Heat over 104.5
Houston Rockets vs Phoenix Suns under 199.5

analoghound21 said:Since they dropped the line on the Miami Heat to -14.5 down to 1.70, I'm calling it—I'm taking that. Miami Heat over 104.5

The betting line at the Betting Company is sitting at 103.5.
Personally, I’m keeping a close eye on the Toronto vs Boston matchup. We need to see how the injury situation shakes out first, but if the rumors are true and at least one of those two big names suits up, I think Boston cruises through this easily. Plus, that 91.5 line? Seems way too low to me. I mean, the squad that dropped 115 on the Miami Heat on the road—even without a few key pieces—should have zero issues clearing this margin.🤷 And cover that 6.5 handicap too...
To be honest, over the last few games—aside from the Miami Heat and Philadelphia 76ers mentioned earlier—everything has been hitting the under. But let's be real: without a few key pieces, the Toronto Raptors aren't even in the same league as the San Antonio Spurs or the Atlanta Hawks.

analoghound21 said:Since they dropped the line on the Miami Heat to -14.5 and it's sitting at around 1.70 now... I think I'm gonna pull the trigger on that one. I'm thinking we go over 104.5 for the Miami Heat.So, I gotta say—Keith Moore21 really hit the nail on the head yesterday regarding that Detroit Pistons over. I mean, they were playing against what is hands down the absolute worst squad in the league right now. The Charlotte Hornets are sitting dead last with a win-loss record that’s just straight-up brutal—they're sitting at 7-49, which is pretty much as bad as it gets. 👎And that’s just how they play... honestly, they seem totally checked out and just completely lifeless during this end-of-season stretch—not that they looked much better before this, I guess. Defense? Yeah, that’s clearly a foreign concept to them at this point. They've been giving up 100+ points regularly over the last few games, so what else are we supposed to expect today when they're staring down one of the most lethal offenses in the league? 🤷 With Dwyane Wade back in the lineup, the Miami Heat shouldn't have any trouble clearing this spread tonight—it honestly feels a little too low to me. This is actually the third time these two squads have faced off this season, and Miami has swept them both so far—remember that nail-biter at the start of the year where they barely scraped by 96-95? Then they just absolutely demolished them at home a few days later, something like 129-90. To be fair, Miami hasn't exactly looked like an offensive juggernaut lately, so I guess this could be the perfect moment for them to finally find their rhythm again... especially if Dwyane Wade can get back to that elite level he was playing at before those injury issues started messing things up. I also think they’re probably feeling a bit stung after that inefficient loss to the Chicago Bulls last night, so they'll likely be looking to make it up to the fans by taking it out on the struggling Charlotte Hornets.

The big guys seem to be thinking along the same lines—I’m leaning toward taking that Miami Heat over. 👍

Amir Bargnanij is out, so we might see Jose Calderon, Mehmed Okur, or Amir Bargnanij step up instead.

Dana Baker2 said:The line at the Betting Company is 103.5.

I don't see that on my end 😢

Personally, I’m really digging the Toronto vs Boston matchup. We gotta wait and see how this whole injury situation shakes out, but if things stay as they are and one of those two big guys actually suits up, I think the Boston Celtics take this one pretty easily. Plus, that 91.5 margin feels way too low to me. This squad dropped 115 on the Miami Heat on the road without even having their main guys, so smashing through this number should be a walk in the park.🤷 And covering a 6.5 handicap too...
Mind you, lately—aside from that Miami game and the 76ers—they've been going under, but let's be real, Toronto without a few key pieces isn't even in the same league as the San Antonio Spurs or the Atlanta Hawks.

🤷 I honestly don't think it'll be the same kind of high-octane pace we saw in that Miami game.

I was actually leaning toward the Toronto Raptors Under 85.5... I mean, with them getting absolutely hammered by injuries, the only real issue the Celtics' defense has to worry about is DeMar DeRozan, and if they shut him down too, I don't see how the Raptors even come close to hitting that number. They put up 73, 64, and 86 in their last three matchups this year. 🤷 Jose Calderon is a question mark, and Mehmed Okur will probably play.

Keith Moore21 said:All the smart money seems to agree; I'm riding with that Miami over.👍

Man, I hope you hit on that one.😬

analoghound21 said:don't have any of that here 😢

I don't have a single one either!😂

I thought if you had an online account, you'd be set.

(88.5) - New Jersey Nets 1.70 under
- If the Philadelphia 76ers actually play defense the way they're supposed to...
The Nets will be without Ben Wallace.

(85.5) - Toronto Raptors 1.85 under
Given the absences, this looks like an attractive option to me...

New Orleans Hornets (h+4.5) - Utah Jazz 1 1.85
New Orleans is tough, and while Utah is dealing with some injuries—though perhaps not enough to cripple them—a depleted roster always leaves a mark. Plus, Millsap is complaining about pain in his shooting hand; I expect him to suit up, but one has to wonder just how effective he'll be.

Portland Trail Blazers (h+2.5) - Dallas Mavericks 2 1.85
They'll be missing LaMarcus Aldridge, but with such a solid bench, Portland is far from easy. That said, Dallas is riding a wave right now, and frankly, the handicap looks excellent for them...

P.S. Orlando Magic will be without Dwight Howard.

Drew Palmer66 said:even without LaMarcus Aldridge, if the bench has some actual quality, Portland isn't bad

Who exactly were you thinking of here? 😁
That Portland squad doesn't even have two decent players coming off the bench! They've got Tim Crawford, who clearly doesn't know what defense means. Honestly, I think the Mavericks should take them easily.

Dana Baker2 said:Who exactly were you thinking of here? 😁
That Portland squad doesn't have even two legitimate players coming off the bench. They've got Tim Crawford, a guy who clearly has no concept of what defense actually looks like. Personally, I think the Mavericks should walk away with a convincing win.

Then again, Dallas isn't exactly made of steel on the defensive end either...
Jeff Hickson, Wayne Babbit, and Tim Crawford are decent enough players...

But fine, I'm with you—I also believe in a Dallas victory.

Drew Palmer66 said:Dallas isn't even close defensively...
Jeff Hickson, Wayne Babbit, and Tim Crawford are decent enough players...

Nah, I'm actually betting on a Dallas win here!

No, I agree, but the depth is way wider than that.
Hickson isn't exactly an elite defender, Crawford is a zero, and Babbit only started seeing minutes because the Trail Blazers' roster got absolutely gutted by trades and injuries. Props to them, but they can't hold a candle to the Dallas bench (Beabouis, Vince Carter, Baron Davis, Lavoy Allen, Olumide Mahinmi, plus that Chinese player lately). Plus, playing without LaMarcus Aldridge makes that lineup a lot weaker.

Kevin Garnett over 15.5

The Boston Celtics have been playing incredible basketball over the last few weeks. Even with injuries hitting them hard and the grind of the season setting in, they're staying resilient. Doc Rivers has had to shuffle the lineup and rotation quite a bit due to circumstances, but honestly? It’s working surprisingly well. Even though they've been playing without a true center for much of this season, Kevin Garnett has found a second wind at that position. We all know he’s one of the elite defenders in the league, but his soft touch from the perimeter and that sheer agility under the rim are just unmatched. He’s such a nightmare to guard, especially now that he’s creating mismatches against slower, heavier opposing fives. Tonight against the Toronto Raptors, I expect him to dominate. Depending on how the rotations shake out, he should be able to overpower Gray, or potentially Amir Johnson or Ed Davis later on. I simply don't see any of those three being able to contain him. Looking at the recent stats, Garnett has cleared this margin by about 3 points over his last five games (averaging 18.6 pts). He averaged 13 points against Toronto in their last three matchups, but keep in mind two of those were blowouts where his minutes were limited to around twenty per game. With Paul Pierce and Rondati focusing more on facilitating the offense, Garnett remains the primary offensive engine for Boston. On the injury front, Chris Bass tweaked his knee a bit against the Atlanta Hawks in overtime; he says he should be fine, but it's something to watch. Gordon Hayward is out, though James Pietrus has moved back into the rotation. My only real fear for this pick is a potential blowout. I'm hoping Toronto doesn't repeat what happened in their game against Phil Jackson's squad, even though they're dealing with their own issues like Andrea Bargnani and Jose Calderon. The atmosphere in Toronto is always great when the Celtics come to town—they’re actually pretty popular at the Air Center. I hope Toronto can keep it competitive enough to let Kevin Garnett hit his over, because I don't see anything stopping him from clearing this line other than perhaps limited minutes.

wiredcanyon39 said:Status after Day 3
total wagered: 70.00 units
total won: 66.10 units
profit/loss: -4 units

Singles

Portland Trail Blazers vs Dallas Mavericks 1.65
9/10
The Blazers basically threw their playoff hopes away with those trades that totally gutted them, and now with LaMarcus Aldridge out for the season due to injury, I’m expecting a complete meltdown in these final games—thankfully there isn't much left on the schedule. They'll probably sub him out for Jeff Hickson, who is basically a sieve on defense, so Dirk Nowitzki might just tear them apart tonight. The Mavericks have a huge game here; everyone in the West is so bunched up right now, so they really need this win to breathe a little easier in the Play-In race.

Nowitzki over 23.5 1.85
5/10
I've already said it all, really. Things are worse without Aldridge, and since they're likely relying on Hickson to cover, who honestly has zero defensive presence, I think Dirk is going to absolutely torch the Blazers tonight.

Batum over 15.5 1.85
7/10
This is my third pick for the session and it's looking pretty tempting. Again, I'm bringing up Aldridge because it just goes to show how few players actually have the ability to score consistently when he's gone. 🤣I don't think Batum will be getting hit too hard tonight, especially since he's suddenly transformed into one of the Blazers' main defensive anchors.

Adding this to the mix
Boston Celtics over 92.5 1.85
7/10
The Celtics are in killer form; they took down the Heat a few days ago and seem to have timed their peak perfectly heading into the playoffs. The Raptors aren't exactly a defensive powerhouse either, and they're dealing with some injury issues tonight as well.

Double
Philadelphia 76ers - New Jersey Nets -18.5 2 1.30
Oklahoma City Thunder - Sacramento Kings -21.5 2 1.30
@1.69
8/10
The Sixers aren't even remotely the same team they were at the start of the season; they're struggling even in wins. I don't really see them blowing out a decent squad like the Nets. As for OKC, the margin feels way too wide to me. They're creeping toward the playoffs, sure, but if they've already secured their spot, they'll probably rest their stars, so I don't see them covering such a massive spread unless it's a freak blowout. I doubt it happens.

New Orleans Hornets - Utah Jazz +10.5 1 1.30
Indiana Pacers - Cleveland Cavaliers -18.5 2 1.30
@1.69
7/10
The Hornets are a solid home team despite having a bunch of close losses at home recently—I remember quite a few of them slipping away late. Both teams are pretty stout defensively, so I'm not expecting anyone to break 100 points, and I think the Hornets can stay within striking distance against Utah until the end.
The Cavaliers pushed the Pacers to Overtime just a few days ago, even though they were at home, and now they're playing on the road. They're a tough group, and the Pacers aren't exactly known for being blowout victims.

Chris Bosh stuck at 18 points. After dropping 12 in the first quarter.🙂
Second day in a row missing by half a basket...🙂

Drew Palmer66 said:(88.5) - New Jersey Nets 1.70 Under
-If the 76ers play defense the way they should...
The Nets are without Ben Wallace

(85.5) - Toronto Raptors 1.85 Under
With those absences, this looks tempting to me...

New Orleans Hornets (h+4.5) - Utah Jazz 1 1.85
The Hornets are tough, and while Utah is struggling with injuries (even if it doesn't hurt them too much), a depleted roster always leaves a mark. Plus, Millsap complained about pain in his shooting hand; I believe he'll play, but one wonders just how well...

Portland (h+2.5) - Dallas Mavericks 2 1.85
They're missing LaMarcus Aldridge, but with a solid bench, the Trail Blazers are decent. However, the Mavericks are on a roll, and frankly, the handicap looks great to me...

P.S. Orlando is without Dwight Howard.

3/4 is excellent...

But really, only to mention -defense- and -76ers- in the same sentence...