NBA Betting: Vol. 2

analoghound21 said:I'm leaning towards the Miami Heat over 104.5...

Keith Moore21 said:The big brains are thinking the same thing—I'm taking that Miami over 👍

analoghound21 said:Man, I really hope that hits for you 😬

wiredcanyon39 said:So, here’s where things stand after Day 3.
Saved: 70.00 units
Got it: 66.10 units.
up/down: -4 units

I guess I'll just start here...

I'm looking at the Portland Trail Blazers vs. Dallas Mavericks matchup, and I've got the Mavericks sitting at around 1.65. It feels like a decent play, though I guess it really depends on how you view the momentum heading into this one. Maybe the Mavs have the edge, maybe they don't—it's hard to say for sure, but that line caught my eye.
9/10
Man, the Trail Blazers basically threw their playoff hopes in the trash after those trades absolutely gutted them. And now? LaMarcus Aldridge is out for the season. Just when things were already looking grim, he goes down with an injury. I’m honestly expecting a total meltdown in these final games—it’s going to be a disaster. Thank god there isn't much left on the schedule. They’ll probably try to plug Jeff Hickson into that spot, which is just asking for trouble since he’s such a massive hole on defense. Plus, Dirk Nowitzki might just absolutely dismantle him tonight. On the flip side, this is a huge game for the Mavericks. Everyone in the West is practically neck-and-neck right now, so they really need this win just to catch a little breathing room in the playoff race.

I’m thinking about taking the leap on Dirk Nowitzki over 23.5 points. The odds are sitting at 1.85, which feels like a decent value if you believe he's going to get his usual looks. I mean, I guess it depends on how the defense treats him tonight, but I'm leaning towards him clearing that line. Just a thought!
5/10
I feel like I've already said it all, but honestly, things are looking pretty rough. They're playing without LaMarcus Aldridge, and instead, they’re stuck relying on Jeff Hickson, who—let's be real—isn't exactly a defensive powerhouse. Because of that, I wouldn't be surprised if Dirk Nowitzki absolutely torpedoes the Trail Blazers tonight.

I'm thinking about Batum going over 15.5 points. Maybe it's a stretch, I guess, but I really feel like he could hit that. Who knows, right? Just a thought.
7/10
I’m really leaning toward taking the third pick for this matchup, and I gotta say, it’s looking pretty tempting. I keep coming back to LaMarcus Aldridge, which honestly just goes to show how much of a drought we’re in when it comes to players who actually have that pure scoring instinct. It feels like that kind of ability is becoming a rare breed lately, I guess. 🤣 I mean, I wouldn't be surprised if that French guy finally hits a wall tonight. He’s suddenly acting like he’s one of the main pillars for the Trail Blazers, but honestly? It feels a bit forced. Maybe he can pull it off, but I guess we'll see if he actually carries them or just burns out.

wiredcanyon39 said:Just adding this to the mix.
I’m thinking about the Boston Celtics over 92.5 at 1.85. Maybe? It feels like a solid play, I guess, if you're looking at the numbers. Just my two cents.
7/10
The Celtics have been looking absolutely dialed in lately. They took down the Miami Heat a few days ago, and honestly, it looks like they’ve timed this surge in form perfectly right before the playoffs kick off. On the other hand, you've got the Raptors—they aren't exactly known for being a defensive powerhouse, and with their current injury situation, they're struggling to find any rhythm tonight. I guess we'll see if Boston can keep that momentum rolling.

Double? I mean, honestly, maybe we should just double down on everything at this point. It’s kind of wild when you think about it, right? I guess I'm just rambling now, but sometimes you just have to go big or go home. Or maybe I'm just overthinking it... who knows?
The Philadelphia 76ers are looking at a massive -18.5 spread against the New Jersey Nets, and honestly, I'm kind of wondering if anyone actually expects this to be close. At 1.30, the money is basically telling you there's no contest here, though I guess that's just how the numbers shake out sometimes. It feels like one of those games where Philly just runs away with it early on. Maybe they'll blow them out even more than the line suggests, or maybe the Nets find some weird momentum halfway through? I don't know, I guess we'll see. Just seems like a heavy tilt toward Philly.
Maybe the Oklahoma City Thunder are going to cover that -21.5 spread against the Sacramento Kings, I guess? It's a massive number, honestly. Looking at the odds around 1.30, it feels like a heavy favorite situation, but man, those spreads can be such a headache sometimes. Who knows? Maybe OKC just runs away with it.
@1.69
8/10
I don't know, man, I just can't see the 76ers looking like the squad they were at the start of the season. Even when they actually manage to pull off a win, they look like they're struggling through mud or something. Honestly, I really don't think I'm going to break the bank on those Sixers; they aren't exactly a powerhouse right now. As for OKC, the spread feels way too wide for my liking. Maybe, if they start pulling closer to that Playoff spot, they'll step it up, but I'm thinking about playing it safe. If they do get close to qualifying, I’ll probably sit my star players for a bit, which means even if there is a blowout, it won't be nearly as massive as everyone expects. I just don't buy it.

So, looking at the matchup between the New Orleans Hornets and the Utah Jazz... if you can grab the Jazz at +10.5, I guess that might be the move. It’s sitting at 1.30 on Fortuna right now. Honestly, ten and a half points is a pretty decent cushion, though anything in the NBA can go sideways in a heartbeat, right? Maybe the Jazz can keep it closer than people think. Just my two cents.
The Indiana Pacers versus the Cleveland Cavaliers—with the Cavs coming in at -18.5. Honestly, that spread feels absolutely massive, doesn't it? I mean, maybe they're just completely outmatched this time around, but an 18.5-point gap is wild. I guess you could take the Pacers if you're feeling gutsy, but man, betting against a spread that wide... it’s a tough pill to swallow. Just one of those games where you're sitting there wondering what on earth the oddsmakers were thinking.
@1.69
7/10
The New Orleans Hornets are actually a pretty solid home team, even if their record at home looks a bit messy right now. I mean, looking back, I remember them being in a ton of those super tight, nail-biting games where they just sort of lost their footing in the closing minutes. Both teams are surprisingly tough on the defensive end, too, so I’m really not expecting anyone to break the 100-point mark tonight. I guess my gut feeling is that the Hornets can at least hang in there until the final stretch, especially against a squad like the Utah Jazz.
The Cavaliers actually pushed the Indiana Pacers into overtime just a few days ago, and that was even with the Pacers playing at home. Now they’re heading out on the road, but honestly, the Cavs are a tough squad to deal with, and I don't think the Pacers are exactly known for handing out blowouts. Maybe they can hold their own, but it's going to be interesting, I guess.

Lawrence Castillo76 said:Ty Lawson at 17.5 under (odds 1.85) should probably clear the line since it feels inflated by 2 points—realistically he's looking at 15.5 based on what other books are showing. Even though he played great last game, the roster is set and there's a chance DeAndre Jordan returns. I'm not expecting a track meet with 200+ points here, especially since the Lakers defend the paint pretty well. If he doesn't hit 3 or 4 triples, there's no way he hits this.
Also, I don't get this 17.5 line on Nelson??? The odds are 1.6 right now, but his average is just barely over 11. Sure, he plays well when the superstar is out, and he cleared this against Washington and Detroit, but facing Atlanta today is going to be a much tougher grind.

Dana Baker2 said:Picks for today (my bankroll is looking a little thin so let's be careful...🙂):

LeBron James under 26.5 EDIT: dropped to 1.70
We all know the big stars step up when things get intense, and that’s definitely the case with this guy. He’s had two brutal games in the last three days—especially that one last night. I don't see that desperate Bobcats defense keeping it close enough for him to stay on the floor forever, so I doubt he'll have to play massive minutes. Expecting maybe 25. Also, looking for Dwyane Wade to take a few more shots.

Andrew Bynum over 20.5
For this one, we really need an update on Kobe Bryant, but even with him in, I think we hit this. Bynum’s shooting has been pretty shaky the last two games (though he made up for it on the glass😁), but tonight against the Denver Nuggets, he should find some breathing room. Denver scores plenty, but their defense is a sieve. Their frontcourt rotation is mediocre at best—active, sure, but defensively questionable. Honestly, their main interior presence is just rookie Oskar Vesely. I don't see how Samuel Koufos or Jaونا McGee can actually stop Andrija.

Portland Trail Blazers (+2.5) vs Dallas Mavericks
Portland has basically checked out of the playoff race. LaMarcus Aldridge is likely out for the season, so they're basically playing for pride now. They’re running a rotation of about six "real" players, which makes it hard to match the depth of the Mavericks, especially with Olumide Mahinmi and Jason Kidd back in the mix. The Trail Blazers played well in both previous matchups in Dallas—lost the first by only 3, and took the second in OT. You can bet Dallas is fired up to settle the score. Even if the Mavericks aren't exactly peaking, they're slowly climbing into a better playoff position and Kevin Love is helping.

I'm also eyeing the unders for some of the bottom-feeders. Most of them look like they'll struggle to cover the spread (unless there's a massive blowout early on). I'd go with the Washington Wizards first; facing a New York Knicks team that's tightened up defensively—and without Nene or Devin Booker—I don't see them hitting the over.🤷
The Sacramento Kings are another thought. They beat OKC (106:101) in their only meeting this year, so playing at home gives them extra motivation. Plus, this is just the first of three meetings coming up in the next ten days.
Charlotte under 89.5
Washington under 93.5
Sacramento under 98.5 (99.5 Fortuna)
Toronto Raptors under 85.5

EDIT: Jose Calderon and Jonas Valančiūnas (wait, Kleiz?) are questionable for Toronto tonight. With Andrea Bargnani and Skip Bayless already out, the outlook is clear. Maybe Boston Celtics -6.5 or Boston Celtics over 91.5).

Christian Ruiz said:Kevin Garnett over #15.5

The Boston Celtics have been playing incredible lately, even with the injuries hitting them hard this season. Doc Rivers has made some smart adjustments to the lineup and rotation, and honestly, it’s working out great. Even though they've been missing a true center for most of the year, Kevin Garnett has found a second wind at that position. We all know he’s one of the league's elite defenders, but his perimeter shooting and agility under the rim are just as impressive. He’s such a nightmare to guard, especially now that he’s essentially creating mismatches against slower, heavier opposing fives. Tonight against the Toronto Raptors, he should really dominate—starting with Gray and then moving on to either Amir Johnson or Ed Davis depending on how the rotations shake out. I just don't see anyone in that trio being able to keep up with him. In his last five games, Garnett has averaged about three points above this line (hitting 18.6 pts)... and while he averaged 13 against Toronto recently, two of those were blowouts where his minutes were limited to around twenty. With Paul Pierce and Rondati focusing more on playmaking, Garnett is clearly Boston's primary offensive engine. Chris Bass tweaked his knee a bit during overtime against the Atlanta Hawks, but he mentioned he should be fine; meanwhile, Gordon Hayward is out, but James Pietrus is back in the mix. My only real worry for this pick is a potential blowout, but I’m hoping Toronto doesn't repeat what happened against the 76ers, despite their own injury struggles (Bargnani, Jose Calderon). The atmosphere in Toronto is always great when the Celtics visit—they're actually quite popular at the Air Center. I hope Toronto can hold their own, because otherwise, I don't see why Garnett wouldn't clear this line unless his minutes get cut short.

Lawrence Castillo76 said:Given all the headaches the Warriors have tonight against the Clippers, especially missing both David Lee and Richard Jefferson...

mellowhawk5 said:David Lee, Richard Jefferson, Stephen Curry, and Andrew Bogut are supposedly out.

-12.5 on the Clippers, maybe?

I see @wiredcanyon39/">@@wiredcanyon39 went with -10.5, but only for 5/10.

mellowhawk5 said:Apparently David Lee, Richard Jefferson, Stephen Curry, and Andrew Bogut are all out.

Should I take LA Clippers -12.5?

I see @wiredcanyon39/">@@wiredcanyon39 went with -10.5 but with a 5/10 confidence level.

wiredcanyon39 said:The Clippers are already looking sharp—they've jumped out to a 12-point lead👍