NBA Betting: Vol. 2

It isn't a requirement to achieve success 🙂

It’s possible, I suppose, though salvation really lies in making the right choices.😁

Man, Nowitzki being undersized—that’s the first thing that comes to mind. Unfortunately, Memphis is playing a back-to-back-to-back stretch, and none of those games were exactly a walk in the park.

Bradley Kern6 said:I mean, why would anyone bet on Memphis right now? They’re playing great, but Dallas is looking pretty rough. I guess they probably don't even have Kidd on the sidelines to fix things. 🤷

Honestly, the only logical explanation is that Memphis is stuck in a back-to-back. They’ve got the Clippers coming to town—who aren't exactly a powerhouse visitor right now—but then they've gotta deal with the Spurs, and man, those guys have been playing out of their minds lately.

Iguadola took a finger to the eye just a few minutes before the end last night and hasn't been back on the court since. We'll have to see how he's holding up tonight.

Might as well jump in since the playoffs are creeping up...😁
Because I've been being lazy—😂I haven't even touched my online sportsbook accounts until tonight. Last night a 9-leg parlay hit 👍, the night before I missed a 2-point spread on the Jazz by just two buckets (odds were 13)—so yeah, time to change that pattern.
I’m not diving into individual player props yet for the reason mentioned above—until the playoffs hit, I’m just playing small stakes on Betway, and those damn sites don't even offer player points in their selection.
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Anyway...
Tonight's slate isn't great, and honestly, like you guys said, injuries are going to be the deciding factor here. Wade, Iguodala, Bynum, Kidd, Harris, Barrea... depending on who actually suits up, anything could happen.

1. Atlanta vs. Charlotte under 186.5
The Bobcats are bottom-feeders right now, and they're playing without their best guy, Maggette. Meanwhile, Atlanta is desperate to lock down a decent playoff seed, so they shouldn't have any issues today. Charlotte put up 87 in Toronto yesterday, and the Raptors aren't exactly known for having a brick wall of a defense. I don't see Atlanta letting them run up the score like that. Plus, I doubt we see a blowout because the Hawks' bench is paper-thin lately; they've been struggling at home.

2. Boston vs. San Antonio under 192.5
A matchup of "old timers" in Boston should probably end that way—low scoring. The Spurs play great and can score, but Boston at home is a different animal. They win games specifically because of their defense. Just look at how they held Miami to 72! And Allen is back in the lineup.

3. Miami vs. Oklahoma under 196.5
After that absolute demolition a few nights ago, the Heat are definitely looking to carry that momentum. We'll have to wait and see what's happening with Wade, but regardless, I think Miami wins this one solely on the defensive end. The Thunder dropped 103 in their last game, but that was basically decided early on. I'm expecting both teams to hover around the 90 mark.

4. Clippers vs. Lakers 1 1.80
The Lakers are a completely different squad on the road (and honestly, they haven't looked great at home recently either 😁), while the Clippers are dominant in their own building—even if they've been a bit hit-or-miss lately (like that blowout win against Dallas on the road). A city rivalry provides enough motivation, and besides, this is a direct battle for the 3rd seed in the West. It's uncertain if Bynum plays, but even if he does, he probably won't see much meaningful time. The Clippers' strength lies in their scoring depth.

Now for a couple of long shots from the "Worth a shot" category:

Dallas vs. Memphis 2 2.85/Memphis +5.5
"My" Grizzlies are finally starting to wake up 😛 (they're gonna be trouble in the playoffs), and Dallas hasn't been anything special lately. They're missing Kidd, and Odom is a question mark. Memphis has taken three out of four from them this year, and even though their schedule is tough right now, taking the points seems worth the gamble.

Minnesota vs. Golden State/+8.5
The home team is unfortunately decimated by injuries. Pekovic is back, but they're without their primary playmaker (Barrea is questionable for tonight). Neither team has a prayer for the playoffs. The Warriors lost a game they should have won in Memphis, and even the Lakers had trouble with them. The stats favor the visitors too, 3-1 this season. I think they cover the spread at the very least.

Utah vs. Phoenix/+6.5
That wild, unpredictable Phoenix squad rarely fails to break 100, but the question is whether anyone can actually stop them. Utah will likely be without Harris, and their home loss to Sacramento 😠 just shows how thin their roster really is. This is also a fight for the 8th seed in the West. Phoenix has swept them 3-0 this season! Like the picks above, this is a pure flyer for the bold!😁

Look, I'll leave it to the veterans here to tell me if any of this actually holds water!

01:00 Philadelphia vs. Toronto
tip: DeMar DeRozan under 17.5 points @ 1.85, Favorite

Honestly, this game feels pretty meaningless for the Toronto squad since their playoff hopes are basically non-existent at this point. On the flip side, you’ve got Philly over here trying to lock down the best possible seeding before the postseason kicks off. With teams like Milwaukee and New York breathing down their necks, the Sixers can't afford even one slip-up if they want to stay in control of their destiny. If you ask me—and I bet the guys in Toronto are thinking along these same lines—it might actually be in their best interest to just take the loss here to boost those odds for the upcoming NBA Draft lottery. So, if Toronto is looking to tank this one, some of the individual players are probably going to have a bit of an off night, and I think DeRozan is the most likely candidate to struggle slightly.

DeRozan is definitely one of those players who feeds off the home crowd energy, usually putting in a massive effort when he's playing in front of his own fans, which shows in how much his stats jump compared to when he's on the road(hitting 18.9 PPG at home versus just 14.5 PPG on the road).

The thing is, Philly is rocking the absolute best defense in the entire league right now, holding opponents to a measly 84.4 PPG at their home arena. They are especially nasty when defending the perimeter, particularly at the small forward spot where Iguodala hangs out, and more importantly, at the shooting guard position where DeRozan operates. Looking back at the last time these two met in Philly, DeRozan was practically invisible, putting up only 8 points on 4-11 shooting. He managed to scrape 6 points from transition plays, but he could only sink a single spot-up jumper. The Sixers absolutely shut him down. Plus, Bargnani has really started stepping up as the team leader, which naturally pushes DeRozan further down the pecking order. All things considered, it's gonna be a massive uphill battle for DeRozan to put up big numbers against the league's top-tier defense, especially with that subtle incentive for Toronto to lose. Going with the under feels like the smartest play here. 🤷

So, Ernie’s saying that all that talk about Wade being out wasn't even serious—he's actually gonna suit up tonight.

The whole issue was just some "bruised left knee" nonsense... he's already back at a hundred percent.🙂

I’m totally with you there, Nicholas Chase34—I’ve caught a few games from that Philly squad lately (maybe five or six times now), and man, their defense is just elite. If they put Iggie on him, DeRozan won't even touch double digits in field goals! Good luck to everyone following Nicholas Chase34's picks!

Everything’s fine. I’m with Nicholas Chase34 on this one, but we really need to wait for the news on whether Iggy is starting before we start betting heavily on DeRozan.

He’s out for the rest of this one and looks day-to-day at best. Iguodala mentioned things are still looking "a little blurry" and he was even "seeing double" after getting hit right in the eye.
Honestly, I'm not sure if he'll suit up. If I had to guess, I'd say he's sitting this one out since they've got the Orlando Magic game coming up in just three days anyway.

Dropped two standard parlays for today🤷

Parker over 19.5 at 1.85
-Man, he was just chilling on the bench yesterday, but when he finally got those 23 minutes, he absolutely tore it up with 19 points on 9-of-11 shooting, so I’m expecting him to be all over the court today
Love over 26.5 at 1.85
-He's gone under two games in a row now, right? It's high time he shows everyone what he's actually capable of, and honestly, playing against a struggling Warriors squad is the perfect setup for him to go off
Jennings over 18.5 at 1.85
-In all three of his wins this season, he’s been averaging about 23 points, and let’s be real, he’s clearly found his rhythm again lately
Griffin over 20.5 at 1.85
-He plays way better at home, plus you gotta factor in that he's gonna be playing with a massive chip on his shoulder against their local rivals, and since Bynum is out, his job just got a whole lot easier after dropping 48 points over two games earlier this year
Bryant over 27.5 at 1.85
-With Bynum sidelined, I’m expecting him to take at least 25 shots, which should carry him over this line without any sweat, unless he hits one of those weird days where nothing goes right, you know how it is

Small stake, heavy favorite

Wall over 15.5 at 1.85
-He's been stuck under this number for seven straight games now—seriously, seven?—so it's about time he finally puts together a decent performance, just going with my gut here
Williams over 20.5 at 1.85
-Lately, he’s been hovering right around this mark constantly; he put up 20 and 19 in his last two against the Lakers and Kings, so I think he can squeeze out one or two extra buckets today
Gortat over 16.5 at 1.85
-The guy dropped 25 in the season opener and his form is climbing fast; he's cleared 20 in each of his last four road games, and since Hill went down with that injury, he's getting way more looks at the rim
Nowitzki over 23.5 at 1.85
-Out of his last 11 games, he only dipped below this twice; he had a rough outing against the Clippers recently where he only managed 19 because he didn't get nearly as many shots as usual
205.5/Milwaukee-Cleveland under 1.85
-That total feels way too high if you ask me, considering Cleveland games usually hover around 190 points and Milwaukee sits around 200, and especially since Cleveland has been averaging about 85 lately... there's no way Milwaukee is scoring 120 points in this matchup

Low stakes, high hopes

Hopefully, the luck is on my side today compared to how yesterday went🤷

Milwaukee (-10.5) vs. Cleveland 1 1.70

No need for a lengthy breakdown here. Milwaukee is hunting for a playoff spot...

We could take a more serious approach here and set Duncan's line at under 15.5 points.

He’ll be guarded by Garnett, who remains one of the premier defenders in the league, and I am certain he will make things difficult enough for Timmy to keep him under that 15-point mark. Given how much effort Duncan put in last night, there is an added layer of motivation behind this pick.

Arthur Hill2 said:They could play it safer with Duncan and set his line under 15.5.

Garnett's gonna be guarding him—he’s one of the best defenders in the league and he’ll definitely give Timmy a hard time trying to push past 15 points. Plus, seeing Duncan play last night just adds more fuel to this pick.

Not much playing time—only 23 minutes—but honestly, better that way 🤣 (2/6 - 7 makes).

For a guy who’s been lugging around those 6'7" frames for over two decades, there's a lot 🙂.

But then again, it isn't really about fatigue so much as it is about Garnett 🙂.

wiredcanyon39 said:Betting on Memphis back-to-back is really the only logical play here. Today they’re facing the Clippers at home against a bottom-tier playoff contender before running into a Spurs squad that's been playing surprisingly well lately.

Give me a break—they play in the same arena. There isn't any distinction between home and away there. 🤣

James Taylor3 said:Man, give me a break. They’re playing in the exact same arena—there isn't even a home court advantage here. 🤣

How are they even supposed to focus when there are red stickers plastered everywhere? 🤣
My bad, I totally missed that part.

Is Wade actually playing today?

Feeling pretty good about a quick double today

Philly
Love over 26.5

The Sixers should probably take care of Toronto—they're just a much better squad, got that solid defense going, playing at home, and they're really fighting for a better playoff seed...
As for Love, he should easily drop something around 30 against that shaky Warriors defense. He’s had a couple of mediocre outings lately, so it feels like it's time for another big 30+15 kind of night... they had a day off, their next game isn't until Saturday, and honestly, they're pretty banged up right now (Rubio, Milicic, Beasley, Ridnour, maybe Barea too, Pekovic might suit up). Basically, Love needs to step up and carry the load—expect plenty of minutes there. I don't see this being a total blowout either... everything points toward the over...

Frank Morgan30 said:Is Wade gonna play today?

It says probable, so he probably will be out there🤷

I put my money on LeBron staying under 28.5 points. Really hoping Wade gets some minutes on the floor here.
Also, I’ve got my gut feeling on Boston vs. San Antonio at 2. It feels like too much if Boston manages to knock out two heavyweights back-to-back.